Well looking at the odds of draft pick success, that's probably the most realistic outcome for any pitcher drafted at or near the top of the draft. Plenty better, plenty worse. Plenty exactly that. Looking at McKay, his velocity, handedness, draft position, repertoire and level of competition look most like Brian Matusz to me; both had huge college numbers also. Matusz was always a top prospect but his stuff never translated, even in the minors. That's only one sample point so it's nothing to base a projection on and I haven't heard any of the draft wonks use the comparable, it's just who I see.