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nicksaviking

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Everything posted by nicksaviking

  1. nicksaviking
    Max Kepler was projected to make 3.2M in arbitration in 2019. Polanco wasn't even arbitration eligible. So Kepler is probably getting about a 50-80% raise? Polanco will be getting about a 600% raise.
  2. nicksaviking
    I'd be more worried about them trying to shoehorn him into the lineup to justify his salary if he didn't show to be a pretty good CF last year. More often than not there will likely always be room for him even if he's just platooning. Also, if a guy can play decent CF, you can usually move him even if you have to eat a bit of the contract. If Polanco doesn't hit and his SS skills don't improve, I'd think he'd be the guy to worry about.
  3. nicksaviking
    Most guys struggle coming out to AAA too. They're going to have to learn at the MLB level no matter what route they take to get there.
  4. nicksaviking
    Redacted. Sounds like they may have done a bit of this with Kepler, so apologies and well done if the rumor is true.
  5. nicksaviking
    I thought the point was that the jackhammer isn't going to do any damage if the concrete hasn't been maintained for 15 years. Also, who is the incompetent jackhammerer in your analogy?
  6. nicksaviking
    Yeah, why mess with a good thing? Wouldn't want to screw up two things the Twins have been so great at.
  7. nicksaviking
    I'd like to see that as well, but if they did, it would pretty unique for a MLB team. I'm guessing owners prefer to hold onto that $25M and keep getting interest and dividends as long as possible. Future payroll is still secondary to future profit.
  8. nicksaviking
    I'm just fine with this deal, but I think a lot of people are over-estimating the flexibility of this deal in it's later stages. Assuming the pay is going to escalate, years four and five will likely be approaching if not above $10M and the option years will surely be higher than that. $10-12M per year for a 2B on the free agent market is about the max these days. I think this is likely a rather player friendly deal, which is just fine, but I don't think it will help with his trade value unless he turns into Jose Ramirez. In which case one would hope he's not traded.
  9. nicksaviking
    I don't know, are all change ups equal? I'd think it would be best to have an off speed pitch to keep batters honest, but it wouldn't have to have much movement or great locatability as long as it crosses the plate from time to time.
  10. nicksaviking
    When you have a 100 MPH heater, I don't think you have to have a good change up, you mostly just have to be able to camouflage when it's coming.
  11. nicksaviking
    I think the new CBA will do quite the opposite. The players aren't going to be content with only 5-6 teams spending big while watching the Pirates, Marlins and Rays continue to do absolutely nothing with payroll. As Ash said, the players need to redefine the payouts as "the players get x amount of revenue". The only way to achieve that is with a more equitable revenue sharing system that will force teams to spend within a certain salary window. And before someone says the Yankees and Dodgers won't agree to that, well it's not going to be entirely their call. Every other professional league does it that way and those other leagues don't have a competitive imbalance due to salary. The Cowboys the Lakers and the Red Wings surely didn't want it that way, but they had to go along with it anyway. The Yankees will just have to get in line. And based on current spending levels, I think they already know this is coming. I think these intentionally low payrolls league-wide is the owners trying to set a low bar for the players share during negotiations. And yes, that sounds exactly like collusion.
  12. nicksaviking
    There's a pattern here with good young arms, hope the Twins see it and agree with it as well.
  13. nicksaviking
    Sigh, you mean a BETTER way of saying it.
  14. nicksaviking
    At this time, none, and very clearly. The big time players are having no luck getting long term deals so they should course correct in the near term for short term deals at high value and course correct long term with serious renegotiation of pay for rookie contracts, a salary floor and elimination of service time requirements in the next CBA.
  15. nicksaviking
    He lost 2 MPH on his fastball by the end of the year. Unless he gets that back, I've got no confidence in him rebounding, and I don't have much confidence that he'll get it back. If he does great, but if he's only sitting at 89-90 MPH at the end of spring training the team should have no qualms about eating the rest of the contract and walking away if better options are available.,
  16. nicksaviking
    Yeah, I don't think anyone really means that the analytics say don't sign Bryce Harper. Everyone just means the analytics are helping them find much cheaper options. The owners are screwing the players, but the players aren't accepting reality. There seems to be a pretty easy compromise here but the players clearly don't like it, except maybe Josh Donaldson. Teams don't want guys over 30 under contract for multiple years and for good reason. The players should still be looking for massive paydays but they have to accept that no one wants to pay them full value after their peak years anymore even if they deserved more during their peak years. Harper should still be pushing for a game-changing contract, but it should be AAV, not the number of years. He should be asking for 5 years at $50M per or something similarly eye-opening..
  17. nicksaviking
    I'd drop Reed and Hildenberger for two of Tyler Clippard, Bud Norris, Ryan Madson and Nick Vincent right now. All of whom will likely get a one year deal if not even a minor league deal. I might drop them anyway, actually.
  18. nicksaviking
    I've said before that I don't believe most players want to play here. But if that's the case the team is wrong to not let that be known. It would call out the agents for trying to use Minnesota with no hope of actually landing the players but more importantly it would give everyone a huge chip on their shoulder and create an us vs. them mentality. I'm not necessarily a fan of that in the real world, but I am on the baseball field.
  19. nicksaviking
    I don't think that's the fan's fault so much as I think that's mostly to do with ownership very cleverly keeping their profits as obscured as possible. I mean really, a $100M payroll to 40 odd players IS insane. It's just less insane when you realize that's less than 30-40% of the revenue for the club. But nobody gets to actually know that for sure because the number can't be pinpointed and the owner's end gets to hide behind a wall of guess-timation while the player's end is posted all over the internet.
  20. nicksaviking
    Maybe the 1st and 2nd guy. But I'd be more than happy to settle for Harper.
  21. nicksaviking
    I agree, historically this team hadn’t done well planning ahead. Maybe they got it right with the Escobar and Pressly trades. Maybe not. There’s still time between now and next year when the rotation turns over, but it would be nice if there was more then Berrios. No clue what the plan is, but I’ve seen nothing to indicate 2020 is any kind of target at this point.
  22. nicksaviking
    Kluber, Bauer, Cole, Scherzer, Carrasco, Wheeler, Corbin, Foltynwicz, Mike Clevenger, German Marquez and Marco Gonzalez were all top 20 in WAR last year and traded as young pitchers; that’s more than half of them. Noah Syndegaard doesn’t even make the cut. I count one of the top 20 who was acquired as a big money free agent; Scherzer makes both lists. I’m not against free agents (though I am against sinkerballers), but developing and trading for your top line guys is how you’re going to turn things around. We need guys at and before their peak, that rarely happens with free agents.
  23. nicksaviking
    Develop your own frontline guys and/or trade for them. If you need free agents identify guys who haven’t peaked yet, but don’t expect them to be anything other than league average. Pitchers don’t tend to de-age, they’re unlikely to be better for your team than their previous team. And never return the call from an agent of a sinkerballer. I’d take Harper and Machado. I’d take Kimbrel and would have been happy with a dozen other relievers. But just because someone is a high profile free agent doesn’t mean he’s a good fit for this team. Keuchel fits monetarily, I don’t see the fit strategically.
  24. nicksaviking
    Gibson’s strikeout rate only increased after he started using his slider more and de-ephisized his sinker. Gibson’s transformation is a prime example why Keuchel isn’t a fit; Gibson wasn’t good when he was doing what Keuchel does now. Keuchel likely won’t change if he gets paid. Plus his velocity is too low for a nice 4 seamer and slider to work. And I don’t want to extend Gibson, he’s too old now.
  25. nicksaviking
    Unless that strikeout rate significantly improves, I'm not interested. If he's going to put the ball into play at the rate that he has been, his effectiveness is going to be significantly tied to the infield defense behind him. This is a different game than it was even ten years ago. You take all the variables off of the table when you prevent the batter from putting the ball in play.
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