nicksaviking
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Everything posted by nicksaviking
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I reserve my right to critique this trade both broadly and down to the most inconsequential and inane details possible. I mean, for Pete's sake, this guy has a career OPS+ of -100.
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Oh, the Twins will own his rights until he's 39 though! This looks like Justin Topa with a minimally longer track record.
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I think people are mistakenly tying the Brewers perpetually good record to their trade success. Their trades for their star players have been AWFUL. Austin Martin and SWR for Berrios looks like a giant win compared to the Burnes and Hadar trades. If the Twins made those deals and still had Twins records, we'd still be complaining about them. This isn't a 'You can't trade Joe Ryan' rant, it's simply pointing out the Brewers aren't winning (regular season games only) because of the trades, they are winning despite of them.- 66 replies
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- joe ryan
- devin williams
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Oh, yes, totally agree. But if the Twins sit around an wait all winter and the CBA forces them to spend money, then they'll have to give Mullins and Garver 20M each because they're the only guys left to pay.
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But you know we aren't getting Skubal or Burnes. I'll happily take and spend money on any player better than Jeffers. But I don't see free agency working out that way. The Twins don't have it in them and this ownership situation has got to look really bad from a player looking in. If the team can guarantee they can and will sign a top five free agent or so, then go for it. If we're instead talking a handful of guys in the 20-40 range, stay away, just give the money to the better player who can only say no and give you a draft pick. And yes, I'd take Jeffers over Arraez in a heartbeat.
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I'll start the highlighted The team isn't improving, at least not to championship level and long term, with more middling free agents. For years I've been advocating spending the money on one or two free agents, not this mish mash of low level vets who are just as likely to be bad as the cheap young guys in the system. If they want to go all out on a free agent like they did with Correa or Donaldson, perfect! But MLBTRs #8 free agent of 2027 is currently Luis Arraez. This just doesn't seem like a realistic avenue to go big and blow a wad of cash. At least not this year, and maybe never again. The number of good players aren't available like they used to be. But as to Castro and Farmer, I think they support my position because those were league-minimum controllable players they got for nothing. They were way better than most of the terrible free agents the Twins had to pay 7-12M for. Zero salary equals zero commitment. Don't commit the roster to questionable vets that cost real money when there are questionable cheap players all over the league, many of whom are in your own system and almost all of which have higher ceilings.
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In this case wouldn't the 'sheep' be the fans that bought into the hallow and clearly false narrative that the Pohlad's were serious about making an effort this year while at the same time slashing payroll by 30M? I am a huge fan and always will be, and at the same time I don't like what the Twins are doing. I also love my kids and when they make bad or selfish choices, I let them hear about it too. And I 100% support playing the kids. From DAY ONE they should have said this is a rebuild year as they're not in a position to truly compete. But we can still get enjoyment from watching the next generation of young players develop and bond. But nope, had to try to put fans in the seats instead by selling them on a fabrication about 2026 championships so instead of Culpepper, E-Rod and Jenkins, we got Gray, Outman and Bell. And as it turns out, nobody bought it and nobody showed up to the stadium. AND now with each young player that gets called up, more and more fans have already tuned out for the season. So no, no rose colored glasses here, the team is reaping what they sowed.
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Oh, I was hoping for the team as a whole to come right out and say that he wasn't playing because any help from Trump is no help at all. And that would have won over the entire GD planet, even if they'd lost 5-1.
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I'm not saying no to Skubal or Burnes, but that still seems far fetched and the sort of thing that won't be taken seriously by the fans. Or the players. One Josh Bell is clogging the roster, five would be an utter disaster. 3rd and 4th and 5th tier corner/DH players are the absolute worst free agents. Most the time they are terrible, but even when they're just average, they limit flexibility and block the higher ceiling players from getting on the field.
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Maybe the second part if it comes to fruition and an actual GOOD pitcher is available, but I'll hard pass on the first part. In a vacuum I'd totally agree, but the options aren't great: I can't imagine anyone sees the Twins getting Skubal or Burnes. Maybe one of the other guys, but the rest are all either average-to-bad, much too old or have severely declining strikeout numbers that I'd like to run far, far away from. Since I'd want nothing to do with Zach Gallen or Luis Severino anyway, I'd stick with Jeffers.
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Nobody heard of Caratini before this year either. The Twins ALWAYS have a catcher problem in the offseason, then we get to July and we realize they don't. It's a defensive position that's about to become largely obsolete too.
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Well the Twins think that way because ownership is full of tentative sheep. They're reactionary instead of proactive, which is largely the reason this team can't build a championship and also largely why as the most tenured small market ownership in all of baseball, the entire league has fallen out of balance in terms of parity compared to other leagues. The Pohalds should be MLBs version of the NFLs Rooneys. But that's too much work and we don't do assertiveness way up here in the cold northern Midwest. Um, right, back to my point. Because they're reactionary instead of proactive, I agree, they won't think about the fact that they may have to spend more money next year until the absolute last minute. So yeah, they won't have the foresight or fortitude to overpay for Jeffers and instead likely will have to give out gross contracts to the remaining free agents who nobody else wants.
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I wouldn't normally advocate for a QO that raises the pay so high, but if the new CBA is going to force the Twins to spend 50M+, I'd rather overpay Jeffers than sign three more Josh Bells. Except for the Donaldson/Correa era, this team ALWAYS foolishly goes quantity over quality in free agency.
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I was still cheering for the US, but it felt dirty doing it last night. Just like everything else he touches, Trump ruined the awesome US Soccer vibe. Chip on their shoulder underdogs? That's what makes fans cheer for US teams. Did anybody really want a huge asterisk next to a World Cup championship? Forget about how everybody has de-legitimized the Astros last World Series championship, the 1972 men's basketball championship being stolen for the Russians is brought up every Olympics. So is how Roy Jones Jr got the gold medal stolen from him in Seoul in favor of a South Korean boxer. I don't want a discredited champion.
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Also, with the CBA approaching and the ABS system getting significantly less push back from the staunch baseball purists, robo-umps have a significant chance of taking over next year. What is listed above as Caratini's best value may evaporate after one season.
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Some free agent? Caratini hasn't been a full time catcher in a half decade. Even if he's here next year, I'd guess there's going to be someone else brought in to platoon with him. After initial reports regarding the CBA, it certainly sounds like the Twins are going to be FORCED to spend way more money next year than they'd like to. Could spend it on Jeffers. Could spend it on somebody else.
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With only three months of control, I can't imagine Jeffers age factors into the equation at all.
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Got to say, your article makes a compelling argument for why the Twins would get a better return for a year and a half of Caratini than they would for a couple moths of Jeffers and his hamite injury.
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Duran had a 3.1 WAR last year and a 2.1 so far this year. And so what? WAR isn’t a helpful stat, particularly in this case since it’s cumulative and relievers are almost entirely valued based on if, when and how they pitch in the team’s highest leverage situations of the season. Teams aren’t, or at least shouldn’t be using WAR to compare positional value. You don’t seriously think peak Bailey Ober brings back Abel and Tait?
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While I’d guess the WAR averages here are largely wrong for the relievers and #3-5 starters, I don’t think this is at all reflective of true value. Duran, Jax and Varland all returned a better haul than Bailey Ober would have ever brought back. High leverage relievers are more valuable than #4-5 starters despite throwing fewer total innings. Often more valuable than #3 starters. That said, Rojas is one of the few I like to possibly be a #1-2 starter. Also, I’m glad this article points out that multi inning relievers are at the absolute bottom of the totem pole. Your most electric failed starters should be pushed to the high leverage situations. Your inning-eating, just-get-me-to-tomorrow pitchers should be the waiver wire fodder you don’t mind casting off in a month.
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Or cement our inability to win a championship forever!
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You know how well thought of Grigson is when the Browns steal him away. Congratulations to Sheduer Sanders and the 2926 champion Cleveland Browns. Edit: Yes, that year was a typo. No, I’m not changing it. Feels better this way.
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It was the Texas judge that hurt Soresby most. Soresby went from being a dumb kid who made a mistake that half of society would have been happy to give a second chance after serving a suspension, to just another privileged white kid who faced no meaningful repercussions for his poor choices.
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Sure, but as we’ve seen for a quarter century, winning a terrible AL Central doesn’t make you a contender. Half the teams in the playoffs still have next to no chance of winning it all.
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Good. You reap what you sow.
