Rosterman
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Everything posted by Rosterman
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Adalberto Mejia: High Floor or More?
Rosterman commented on Jamie Cameron's blog entry in Curveball Blog
Right now...he is a lefty. He needs to throw innings. At the least, he needs to show that he can be a long relief guy. Otherwise, his career MAY be short lived. He is lucky to be a part of the Twins system when he was. The sole left-hander, a guy who is a tad better than the "others" at the moment. But he can be easily pushed aside by prospects or a free agent signing. -
Free Agent Starters By The Numbers Part II: WAR and Projections
Rosterman commented on Greg Logan's blog entry in Bloop Singles
I would happily sign any of the free agent starters, but all of them are overpriced and don't demand the contracts they are reportedly seeing. Five years at most for two of them. 2-3 years for the other two. Price can be debated. But I don't want to see ANY of them taking up roster space, really, past 2021. -
Article: MLB Shift Driving Market Realities
Rosterman replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
You try to build teams around a stable of players AND a winning format. Sometimes those prospects may take 3-4 years to develop, and then they are on the cusp of walking away. You gamble and extend them early. It's more cost effective than tying them up later in free agency, but still a gamble. You sign a free agent. A gun for hire who is only as good as the player behind them. Short-term, you get the Jack Morris sensation who may create the msot memorable moment in history. Or you may get one of many, who languish on the roster eating up dollars. Happens to your own (Ryan Howard, Joe Mauer) as well as giving contracts to guys outside. At least when you give a longterm contract to a homebody, you are, in a sense, rewarding them for play they have done at a discount, so to speak. $20-25-30 million a year. At what point is it senseless that one player takes up a huge percentage of ALL your payroll. Are players worth 10% of a team's payroll? If they are and you payroll is south of $125 million, then you are relying on the hit-and-miss of prospects and pre-free-agency folks. If you can afford to eat a big contract for a season or two, then you are paying a luxury tax on top of that big contract. Capping payrolls is somewhat wonderful, but you still have teams spending twice as much as some other teams a season...consistently. The teams are finding creative ways to pass off big contracts with a cash payment to select teams to take aging vets off their hands. The Dodgers may not want to pay a luxury tax, but they did get rid of Kemp and his salary along with a contribution from their books. Yes, they are eating a contract, and the money is not beneficial to the team receiving Kemp (as they have to pay him). In a round-about way, the owners are figuring out how to play the system. And they are also balking at the loss in international bonus money or draft positions (another area where players are vastly overpaid on paper talent). I shake my hed at the initial demands of this free agent marketplace. I look at the big four in the world of starting pitchers and don't see it. Hosmer and Martinez? I don't see huge time commitments. At some point, the contract of a David Ortiz that keeps rolling over from year-to-year seems a wonderful luxury, especially to a franchise player compared to that gun-for-hire. Yet the equation is thrown out of whack. Middle relief, guys who setup and pitch in 40-50 games, are getting more money than imagined...closer money, in some ways.People that were jettisoned by teams in the past because those teams didn't want to pay the piper (Twins alone: Swarzak, Neshek, Duensing, Kintzler). And it is also about roster space. Is there space on EVERY roster to handle 2-3 veterans in spite of prospects that YOU want to keep and develop? Are the free agents better/worse than the backup fodder you could remove from your 40-man, and at what price, and at what need for playing time. Will it get better before it gets worse? Will more and more prospects come up and be eaten and disappear before they have free agency, rather than players hanging onto careers and multi-million paychecks forever?- 83 replies
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- major league baseball
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It will be interesting to see how the BIG FOUR pan out in free agency. Looking at the age and numbers...none of them is worth what they think. I would not go 5-7 years on Davish. I would not go more than 3 years and $36 million on Lynn or Cobb.Davish may be a power pitcher, but still...NO! Is this the year we see one-year $25-30 million days across the board? Yes, the Twins do have the revenue. They have at least $50 million to spend and not hurt themselves. More if they actually do win games. But I don't see any of the pitchers in question panning out longterm. At least in 2018 we have Kyle Gibson pitching for a free agent contract, Ervin Santana pitching for a free agent contract or a one-year extension. You need someone else that is decent and hungry. Is Garcia the guy? Or can the Twins still flip a trade?
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Article: Dollars Make Sense For 2018 Twins
Rosterman replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
You funnel guys in and out. Hopefully the prospect pipeline is stable and you have a better idea of who is coming forth. The Twins have the money. 2017 was a great year. They were cutting their own budget and tightening their belts and made revenue because of increased interest in their product. Less season tickets but more fullprice seat control. The whole "how much can they spend" is bull. 55% of $200 million doesn't mean they spend 55% of $250 million. The other areas don't increase of the same level as payroll. If they have $100+ million on $200 million of revenue, they should have $150+ million on $250 million. Some of the new guys will demand monies. But some are also replaceable. You can maybe sign some to contracts like they did Span, which makes them worthwhile trade commodities. What was surprising was the lack of interest in Dozier during 2016 as well as that offseason. Now he's in a wait-and-see position and even if he does GREAT again, his return will be limited unless the inquiring team could sign him longterm. Mauer is the question. He always brought you value as a catcher, and has some clubhouse value, but his on-field and batting order value to the Twins is not worth what he should probably be paid. Sad to see him move to another team, although he might just retire. He is not a parttime player...yet. Still curious to see how the search for a starter does bear out. Not in favor of $100+ million multi-year deal. But is there an alternative. And would the guy be a solid anchor for 3-4 years in reality, that is the question. If not, pass. Wish all these pitching prospects (rotation and bullpen) panned out or weren't delayed. We seem to forget that Meyer and May were supposed to be foundation blocks and a bullpen of Reed, Melotakis, Chargois, Burdi, Jones, Bard closer to arbitration rather than rookie seasons.- 37 replies
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- minnesota twins
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Article: Johan Santana Elected To Twins Hall of Fame
Rosterman replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I always wondered "what if" he ahd remained a Twin. Back then, it was a $120 million 7-year deal for the guy. Should the Twins have grabbed at it? Did Johan really feel being on a bigger stage was more important then being the biggest fish in a small pond? Kudos that the Twins will add this guy to their Hall of Fame. Now, Al Worthington, another worthy candidate......... -
Very interesting comments about Fast Eddie. You almost wonder if THIS is the season you might've packaged him and a prospect for a mainline starter, shades of the day the Twins passed on trading Delmon Young after he had a dynamite season. Stat wise, and playing time, Eddie looks better than Sano, another guy who might still become awesome overtime. I always wonder what other teams do think or see in the players in the organization I admire. Seems we had a cold awakening about Dozier last year, who is now even more valuable except that he will be a free agent. We will never know how our hometown heroes are evaluated on the bigger stage.
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May would have to come back as a pen guy. Duffey and Enns could both be long-relief, if needed. Yes, the Twins need a long-relief right-hander. In the Wings are Reed and Jay (and don't count out Melotakis). Just need to sort out the rotation. And the true Bench. aAnd, we could get Burdi or Bard abck, and I would take them.
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- addison reed
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The Twins suddenly have TOO MANY bullpen arms. Closer: Rodney. Setup: Reed and Duke. Others: Hildenberger, Busenitz, Rogers, Pressly, Duffey. There's Chargois, Curtiss and Moya to start in the minors, perhaps. Kohn, Melotakis and Reed at Rochester. Baxendale, Jones, Nick Anderson with the Lookouts but should be at Rochester. Add in the return of Bard. Do you need Boshers AND Kinley?
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- kennys vargas
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Yes, the Twins need to make some 40-man moves. They have NO 40-man reserves in the hitting department. But, they have a good chance of opening the season with May and Pineda on the 60-day DL. Plus, possibly, Hughes and maybe Chargois. They would still have 10 or so pitchers to find homes at AAA and AA ball. They currently have 16 on the rosters there, with another 3-4 that COULD move up from Ft. Myers more likely than any of the 16 moving down. Of course, disabled list will claim a few. The Twins have 2 names replaceable. Boshers if you add a bullpen arm and Slegers if you add a starter. Enns has value being a lefty (as does Moya). Mejia might be odd-man out if you add to the rotation. Pressley and even Rodnoy (now) could be expendable. And, is Kinley worthy of a season-long roster spot, now. What you also unfortunately have is 7 arms that WON'T start the season with the Twins and it could be debatable if they would graduate to fulltime service during the season. Gonsalves could be the closest, but you have Jorge, Romero, Littell, Thorpe, Curtiss and Moya. Right now, these guys ARE above the 15 currently on the AAA/AA rosters with only Reed and possibly Tyler Jay ahead of them, but still not guys who would start the season with the Twins. So it will be interesting to see the musical chairs. Especially when a roster spot or two NEEDS to be kept open to bring up temporary guys if someone just goes on the normal DL during the early part of the season.
- 39 replies
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- kennys vargas
- gabriel moya
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Article: The Time For A Buxton Extension Is Now
Rosterman replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
SHows the joys of having players start their careers at an early age. Development time. And the outfield: who from the current trio do you keep - Kepler, Buxton, Rosario. Rosario has put up some pretty fine numbers, might prove to be a better bat than Sano overall. Speaking of: Sano. Hoe much, how long. Of course, a decent contract doesn't always work out. Seems you could hardly give away Dozier going into last season. Now he's a real bargain and, unless he totally tanks (think Plouffe) could garner bigger bucks going forth. Who are the real prospects in the wings. For the sake of the team, knowing that you have control of a player for 3-4 years is wonderful news. Of course, arbitration also gives you that comfort, sometimes at a greater cost. Some players are worth more than their arbitration price in the longrun, some are worth...less. I'm hoping Buxton shows his stuff as a lead-off batter (replacing Dozier, who should be deserving of a 2-3 year extension with the Twins -- of course, depending on monies). But this might be the perfect front office. We will know for sure when the Mauer decision is made at some point. And if they vastly empty the vault for Davish. -
New Approach on Signing Yu Darvish
Rosterman commented on jharaldson's blog entry in Back Office Twins Baseball Blog
Is he worth $100 + million or not. That is the question. What do you get, for how long, and why........... -
Minnesota Making Room On The Mound
Rosterman commented on Ted Schwerzler 's blog entry in Off The Baggy
Twins can collect insurance money if Hughes remains disabled. May should start as a relief pitcher to build up his arm for multiple innings? Could he be a future closer? Twins also have Chargois. What is his status. Four potential disabled pitchers. Only 11 more needing homes in the minors at the end of spring training.- 7 comments
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Garver needs to catch, be it in the majors of half-a-season FULL behind-the-plate at AAA before becoming the sole backup or just a bench bat to put into other positions. Unless any of the other guys down the ladder would be a fulltime catcher come 2020, which I don't see. So, is Garver the potential once and future catcher come next season and holding down the majority of games behind-the-plate for years after that, or is he a guy "who can also catch" and be the super reserve bench bat.
- 17 replies
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- jason castro
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Article: Projecting The 2021 Twins Line-Up
Rosterman replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Supposedly Garver can handle the job defensively, if given the chance. This will be a telling season for him. Does he go back to Rochester and catch fulltime and work with future Twins, or stay in the majors as a very part-time backstop and bench bat.- 33 replies
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I imagine he would see what someone might pay. Would he get a multi-year contract in the $10-15 mil range? Does he want to do year-to-year otherwise with the Twins. Is he a good bench bat? He is basically a DH/1B guy...ot like you want him in the outfield. I imagine he would explore some opportunities. Does he have front office desires down-the-line?
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Interesting to see what DOES happen to Mauer, where Sano ends up, and what the Twins do with Dozier, who suddenly has become an expensive commodity...would I pay him $60 million for a longterm deal at this point, or hope that Gordon/Polanco are suitable replacements. Is Rooker the answer at first base? See how fast he progresses, with Diaz on his heals. Kepler is interesting. He seems to be a very hard worker, but still lacks consistency (or maybe he is consistent). Buxton may be on the rise, and Rosario hs been a total surprise as the team hitting leader. Who is on tap to bring something different and unique to the outfield? The whole Jake Mauer thing was strange. Saw him as possibly a manager of the future. Would he have been better served to be an on-field coach with the Twins....having half the season at home in Minnesota, as well as the off-season? Is it the money you can make in car dealing compared to the time and energy you spend on baseball 24-hours-a-day? It does seem strange to think of Mauer NOT as Twin, but it may happen. I was thinking there would be more changes in the Twins front office, not just some position shuffling. But maybe next year.
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The Twins need to make a splash. But in the local sports scene, anything they do will be lost right now with the Vikings success and the Super Bowl mess taking up the sports time between now and spring training. Maybe the Twins will make a trade. A pretty big one. Or maybe they just sign a marginal rotation arm, hope everyone comes back strong, and pull off a Verlander-like acquisition mid-season (hey, they could always go after Grienke). I'm sure the front office is trying to figure out longterm (a team, perhaps, without Mauer and Dozier in the future). Will be an interesting TwinsFest, and WCCO air time!
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- brian dozier
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Minnesota Twins Fans vs The Pohlad Family
Rosterman commented on MidwestTwinsFan15's blog entry in The Line of Mendoza
You run a business to make money, or perhaps to take a loss for that business of offset outrageous profits from another that you own, or to grow a business so that it can be resold for a hefty profit. But ultimately, you do it to make money, pay employees, create cashflow. When cashflow goes down, you cut expenses as mucha s you can. When cash flow is high, you maybe pay dividends instead of reinvestment...why reinvest when you can get a public bailout when you need new facilities, or when the price of your limited edition franchise keeps going up, no matter how well they perform on the field (or at the box office). Baseball is unique. There are only so many toys for people to buy and play and they seem to generate funds and keep value. Explain that to me. 50% of revenue interested each season? Explain what happens when you make $200 million and spend $100 million on players on the field and $100 million on the organization. When you make $250 million, does the organization really spend another $25 million in front office/behind-the-scenes that they didn't spend before? The team needs advance money to play with. Then they have to market, and hope the people DO show up.....even when the sold seats sit empty, they do convicec advertisers that their message IS being scene. And the illusion of putting a team on the field that CAN appear competitive is just as good for amrekting as family entertainment as going all out and trying to BUY a winner. You have no idea if your team will be great or not. Because someone has to lose when two teams take the field. It depends on the mix in the lineup, the quality of that five-day rotation, if your bullpen is up to snuff...and are the other teams truly better. The Twins were in a division in which three teams were significantly worse than them in 2017. They also managed to squeak into the Wild Card. We all should be glad that the Twin Cities experienced meaningful baseball throughout the season. And the powers-that-be were pretty darn happy that they were getting full price for those tickets in the final games. Mauer was a p.r. boost to the team, and a decent marketing image. But he always absorbed a tremendous part of the payroll. He should've been outside the confines of payroll budget, as his contract was more marketing than player needs. What you call the franchise contract. How much you spend is a crapshoot. The butts you put into the seats give you ticket, concession AND advertising revenue. That is IF the butts are in the seats. The Twins front office DO know what they are doing, from the mess of different seat and game prices, to figuring out the profit margin for every hot dog or beer sold, to sponsorship tradeouts. Can't wait to see how the marketing ramps up AFTER the Super Bowl.- 14 comments
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Duffey has found his key, the long-relief set-up guy. I have a sneaking suspicion that Trevor May COULD be developed into a closer!
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Article: Mike Napoli: The Missing Piece?
Rosterman replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Is he the special guy to come off the bench in a pinch-hit situation? But then who replaces him in the field. Is he better than Vargas? That is the decision the Twins really have to make. Is there then still a need for, say, Grossman? Longrange, all the names above (including Nap) could be gone anyways come 2019. So it is getting the right pieces. The elephant in the room, though, is Sano. Will he play third, or be starting his quest towards being a fulltime DH who COULD play third in NL ballparks. Of course, if we want to have the Twins spend money...they have the money for a temporary bench bat. But is he truly the msot versatile fit for the team. And they do need a first-rate starting pitcher...no more dumpster diving back-of-the-rotation guys instead of a quality arm.- 45 replies
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- mike napoli
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Actually, how much money do major league coaches actually make?
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- tommy watkins
- jeremy zoll
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Interested the additions from the academic world of baseball. You forget that coaching and managing doesn't necessarily have to involve playing the sport as a pro anymore. Lots of minor league coordinators as well as the former Twins on hand for experience drills.
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- tommy watkins
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