Darius

Of course we should be worried about them. I think a lot of fans are getting a little haughty. Our rotation could be terrible. We’re a season ending injury from Berrios/Odorizzi away from being in big trouble. There’s not guarantee Pineda is the guy we saw last year. Same with Bailey. Hill may never get healthy. On the offensive side, age could catch up with Cruz. Sano and Buxton could continue to struggle with injuries. Garver and Arraez could easily come back down to earth. There are so many variables with this club, it is not a hot take to say we could finish behind the Sox. Last year’s success was beyond a best case scenario. The odds of that happening two years in row are probably slim. The same “best case scenario” that happened for us last year could easily happen for the Sox. They have some legitimate talent beyond their off season acquisitions primed for superstardom (Giolito, Moncada, Anderson, Kopech, Jimenez, even Rodon could be very good). Add those potential breakouts to Grandal, Encarnacion, Abbreu, McCann, Mazara, etc. and things could get scary. I think many Twins fans could be thinking of the Sox the same way Indians fans were thinking of the Twins this time last year.

If it were up to me, he’d be gone already. I’d also be having my lawyers look into whether there’s any recourse to recover any of the guaranteed money. He was paid under false pretenses. If I’m another player that was a free agent at that time and wasn’t cheating, or a pitcher looking to get paid around that time, I’m all over my MLBPA rep in regards to how much money this potentially cost me and what they’re going to do about it. The MLBPA gets their shorts in a wad when teams don’t pay players what they think they should be paid....what about players stealing from each other? If I’m a straight-laced player sharing a locker room the only words I’d share with him is “pay me.” Screw him.

I’d like to chat with Greg Maddox if he thinks pumping 85 mph two seamer would be as effective today (if we’re comparing to Chacin, here). Things aren’t quite as they were in the 90s. Who is even known for/relies on a good two-seamer or sinker anymore? Julio Teheran? I can’t think of anyone notable that doesn’t just use it in an ancillary fashion. Nobody you wouldn’t consider a front line starter. Maybe some good relievers are still effectively featuring a two-seamer or sinker....but it seems to me cutters and sliders are king in terms of results. Interesting article on different pitch types and the best pitchers throwing them: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlb.com/amp/news/best-pitchers-by-pitch-type-in-2019.html

If he’s the number 3 starter this team isn’t making the playoffs.

The rotation certainly isn’t a disaster. But, there’s just nobody that I trust in the playoffs. Berrios and Odorizzi are OK, not great. I don’t feel overly confident about either of the two. The rest have absolutely no business pitching a playoff game. The sad truth is that no team employing Homer Bailey or Michael Pineda as mid-rotation fixtures is going to last very long in the playoffs. If they don’t trade for front-line starter (which they won’t), the team’s only hope is that Berrios somehow takes another step (I don’t think it’s going to happen, its possible), Odorizzi sustains last year’s success (entirely possible) and Rich Hill gets healthy, stays healthy, and deals (nearly impossible). It’ll be a fun season. They’ll score a ton of runs. Unfortunately, I’m already looking forward to next year’s free agent SP crop (Kluber, Bauer, Ray, Tanaka, Paxton) to see if we can serious about a World Series title in 2021.

He’s thrown about 120 innings in the AL in career and has been pretty brutal (ERA in the ballpark of 5.00). In theory, I guess they could get something out of him (Anibal Sanchez comes to mind). I’m certainly my not expecting anything. At the end of the day, if he’s throwing significant innings I think it likely means we’re in trouble. I would’ve rather seen a flier on Walker, but not losing any sleep.

This is a joke right? Because there was way more of this of this in game years ago. You think it’s more honorable to throw at someone’s head and literally risk their life like they used to do back then? I think you’re suffering from some sort of Mandela effect because you’d like to think your generation is superior. Really, the opposite is true.

Just my opinion, you could be right. But, it’s just as likely that Alvarez comes back down to earth without a buzzer on. Or, that he levels off as the league gathers more scouting reports (same argument I make against Arraez continuing to hit .350). That said, I think Cruz is a ticking time bomb. Having the ability to hit the ball is one thing. Cruz can clearly still do that. But, at some point your body just shuts down. Soft tissue and joint injuries pile up and take much longer to heal, no matter the amount of preparation. Interesting conversation.

Considering it’s been proven the Astros have cheated, and the Yankees have been implicated, I’ll take the Twins lineup once things get cleaned up. Yes, the cheating made a difference. If you don’t think so, I don’t know what to tell. Would Altuve stink without cheating? Of course not. But, claiming he would still be as good is just a terrible take. Of course they were wearing buzzers (if you believe Altuve’s “shy” narrative about the his jersey, may the Lord help you out in the real world). The Astros have to be considered a sham until they can show otherwise. Also, it’s really hard for me take the Yankees seriously when they play in that joke of a ballpark. Put Aaron Judge in Target Field and he probably has 10 fewer home runs (a lot of his HRs would get eaten up by that scoreboard in right center). Gleyber Torres is a total fraud and cheater like Altuve, and I’m positive that it’ll come out at some point. Stanton, Judge, and LeMaheiu are legitimate hitters, but that ball park helps them and nobody else in that lineup scares me a whole lot when they’re not cheating. Level the playing field and the Twins have the best lineup in baseball. I’d stack Garver, Cruz, Donaldson, and Sano against anyone in the planet. What’s also lost on some is that the Twins still have room to grow. Buxton could break out offensively. Rosario could go back to his 2017 form. Miguel Sano could rake for the entire season, instead of half. Garver could get more PAs. These other lineups, I feel, have sort of “peaked.” I think the Twins lineup has plenty of room to improve.

I asked that question right after shortly after the scandal broke on this very website.

Really smart deal.

His numbers are what they are because he swings the bat really damn hard. He’s not getting cheated when he’s ahead in the count. Thus, a lot of swings and misses. He doesn’t have some inherent flaw relative to other MLBers that cause him to swing and miss more. The nature of swing is all or nothing. The numbers make total sense. I’d wager that the same pattern would hold for guys like Killebrew, McGuire, and various other prolific power hitters throughout history. His barrel percentage is high when making contact because he’s also a really damn good hitter, which many seem to refuse to believe. It’s possible to swing and miss a lot and still be a great hitter when you’re taking a certain approach. He’s not just getting by on his strength, which seems to be a prevailing assumption (there are a lot of incredibly strong people in Major League Baseball, newsflash, and nobody hits the ball harder). Case in point, your conclusion of, “the opposite of what the numbers say is true, and he sucks at barreling the ball.....but somehow still hits it harder than everyone in the planet.” That’s not really how a baseball bat works, no matter how strong you are.

Anyone surprised by Miguel Sano’s ranking hasn’t been watching Miguel Sano. Thankfully the FO sees the potential and didn’t want to dump him for nothing like a lot of TD members.

I’m totally fine with starting the season with the staff we have now. But, something has to be done to address via trade or it’ll be a short postseason (assuming they make it, which is certainly no sure thing). Enter Rich Hill and the problem he may cause. I can see a scenario in which the rotation is unspectacularly solid going into July and Hill’s recovery looks great. The front office elects not to target a starter via trade. Rich Hill proceeds to get injured again. It’s my only concern right now after getting the Bringer of Rain.

Personally, I don’t think Sano was as bad at 3B at some people believe/say. I’m also not convinced that some of the advanced stats really tell the whole story. It’s my opinion that we’ll look back at some of these advanced stats in the future and wonder why we used them, similar to looking back at the times when offense was primarily analyzed using batting avg and pitching ERA. So, while advanced stats can be a useful tool, looking at them and saying “this says Sano is the 29th best 3B in baseball, so it must be the case,” is a little silly. Any statistician worth his salt will tell you any output likely isn’t a completely accurate representation of reality, hence the need for regression analysis, error tolerances, etc. In summary, the eye test tells my this guy has some defensive acumen that can be very useful despite the hyperbolic hit takes that get thrown around. Obviously, Donaldson is much better at 3B. No question. Sano should be pushed to 1B and there are a couple discussion points that intrigue me: 1). Some seem to think his throwing arm will become a null asset at 1B. I disagree. The 3-6-3, 3-6-1, 3-2-3, etc. double play arent the easiest plays to make for a 1B, and I think Sano’s arm strength will play well in that scenario. 2). “Scooping” has been brought up. I have to believe after years of fielding hot one-hoppers at third base in practice/games has set up the hand-eye coordination necessary. If he could field his position at the hot corner even remotely well (which he did, despite some belief), I can’t imagine tracking throws to 1B is going to be an issue. I’m the end, as mentioned, it’ll just come down to footwork on the bang-bang plays. Even Mauer struggles with this during his first year. Seeing as Mauer is an all-universe level athlete, that’s where I get a little nervous with Sano. It’ll be interesting to see the progression.

One thing I don’t understand is the players being granted “immunity” over this deal. Are they “immune” from MLB punitive action only? Or, if the Twins, for example, were to cut loose Marwin for his involvement, is that a MLBPA issue (wrongful termination, or something similar)? If I’m the Twins I’m strongly considering letting Marwin go. It’ll likely be talked about relentlessly when he’s at the plate by opposing TV/radio crews. If the Twins succeed in the playoffs and he plays a role it’ll be a topic. Just from a business sense, I want to distance myself from this issue as much as possible. You also get the bonus national PR goodwill from being the first team to take a hard-line on a cheating player. I can see the Twitter reaction now, it’ll certainly trend (“The Twins are now my favorite team,” etc). The sad reality is that Marwin just isn’t good enough to bend over backwards PR-wise to keep him around (we’re not talking George Springer, here). Of course, nobody will want to hear this, but it’s also possible that the team that just shattered the MLB home run record is cheating in a similar manner. Can’t really send Marwin out into the world to add your name to list with the Astros and some others. What a time to be alive.

What’s also interesting is the Astros as a whole had a better road record than home record in 2017. They were pretty darn good at home in 2019, though.

Walker, Cashner, and Salazar are the only ones I’m even remotely interested in. There’s some legitimate upside there that could be worth a gamble. I’m really warming up to the idea of Cashner as a back-end guy instead of one of the rookies. He’s been durable. He’s got pretty good stuff. He seems to have pitched well when he’s not in those slow pitch softball parks in the AL East. I’d be fine with Cashner on a 1 year deal to round out free agency.

Unreasonable compared to what? We always compare this team to other markets in terms of what it can spend. But what about other pro teams in this market: I’m sure there is more recent data, but in 2015 the Twins made over $21M in profit. No other professional sports team in the market netted more than $7 (Vikings about $5M, T-Wolves about $6M, Wild took a loss). It would be unreasonable to Pohlads, who like to maintain their massive profits. But, even after signing Donaldson, it can still be argued that what they are doing in terms of payroll is unreasonable. Keep in mind they bought the team for $44M. They’ve made a billion in unrealized appreciation and they make 50% return on their initial investment annually (based on 2015 numbers....I’m sure the profit in 2019 was closer to $40-$50M). Demanding a return on your investment of that magnitude is not only unreasonable, it’s downright greedy. Especially when a significant portion of that return was initially financed by the taxpayer (Target Field). I’ve given the Cheap Pohalds a break for a few days because of Donaldson, but let’s not act like these guys are anywhere near blowing open the bank vault, here. They’re still Scrooge McDuck personified.

The only way I’m taking Price is if they eat half the contract and send me a prospect. If he’s with Betts, it seriously reduces what I’d give up. Betts would look pretty good in the outfield. With Betts, Buxton, and Kepler you’re looking at one of the best defensive outfields of all time (assuming he or Kepler are just as good in left). The bat wouldn’t look too shabby slotted in for Rosario, either. However, there is zero chance of retaining Betts beyond 2020. So, I’m not rolling out the red carpet in terms of prospects there. The whole discussion is an exercise in futility. There is absolutely no way the ownership OKs adding another $20+ million dollar contract to the payroll, let alone two. I can only imagine the amount of Rolaids the Pohlad clan has gone through after adding Donaldson and surpassing $130M. The FO will never give up the prospects necessary for Boston to eat payroll (they’ve basically said they’re not trading Lewis, Kirilloff, etc).

It’s not a deliberate action to sign older free agents as part of a greater strategy. It’s just that these are the only types of free agents they choose to be involved in because of cost. A high-end player in his prime (Cole, Strasburg, and Rendon this year) is just never going to happen. But, once that star player crosses the age 30 threshold and accumulated a few injuries, the price may be in the wheelhouse of the Twins’ budget. I don’t think it’s a great way of doing business. You’re going to get burned more often then not, probably, and the self fulfilling prophecy of “small market team” just keeps running a circular course, as we’ve seen here for decades. I heard somewhere recently that the Astros made $60M just in the postseason in 2017. A couple of good postseason runs basically recoups the majority of any of these huge contracts. It’s when you go half-assed like the Twins historically have, when you can’t win a playoff series and corner yourself with financial constraints.

I didn’t think an article of this nature would ever be written in regards to the Twins. It has never been able to be written in my entire lifetime. What a time to be alive.

I don’t get the “purple” rain connection everyone has been making. I get Prince is from Minnesota, be he had nothing to do with baseball, purple has nothing to do with the Twins, and it would be an awful song to play at a ballpark after a homer. That’s the thing, most songs with “rain” in the title are slow depressing songs about being heartbroken. It’s just forcing it to make them “rain” connection.

I think they do have the time. I’m not worried at all about the regular season (apart from injuries). As long as something is done to gear up for the playoffs at some point, I’ll be happy. A few things to think about: 1). The quality of pitcher available right now may not substantially help the team. For example, Gray would be a really nice piece to have around during the regular season. But, is that what gets the Twins over the hump in a playoff series? I don’t think so. They’re better off waiting for the deadline, where maybe someone like the Rays would make Snell available, for example. 2). The prospects available to trade may not be requisite if acquiring a true high-end starter. If Falvine are really as reluctant to trade the big names in the system (Lewis, etc), is acquiring a starter that helps possible? 3). Contracts will get in the way. There aren’t many cheap controllable starters available, obviously. I’m sure Price could be had, but what are the Twins willing/able to pick up? My point is, there are a lot of hurdles. Many think it’s a foregone conclusion that they’ll trade at some point, but I’m not sure it’d all that likely. The stars will really have to align to get a legitimate high-ender.

At the end of the day it boils down to run differential. Isn’t that the ultimate objective? Opponents will score fewer runs with Donaldson at third than Sano. The Twins will score more runs with Donaldson in the lineup than Cron. It makes the team better, and not just a little bit (20-30 runs, net?). I was one pounding the table for pitching. But, if you were to ask me in a vacuum if I’d rather have Donaldson or Ryu, it’s not even a question (Donaldson). It’s also a heck of a lot better than nothing, which is where they were left on pitching when the music stopped.