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RJA

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  1. RJA
    I think Larnach will be fine long term. I don't think he compares to Rooker at all, for many of the reasons you identify, Cody. Plus, he is a smart guy. He studies the game and will do what is necessary to adjust. I never write off a great prospect after one trip to the majors. Look at Torii's struggles early on. Plus, he was injured. I think he will likely start at St. Paul, do well and be promoted next year. I think he will be an important piece long term.
  2. RJA
    Thanks for response on hall of fame election by market size. I will try to find the study. I think you are greatly underselling Nathan. AS games: Nathan 6, Wagner 7. WPA career: Nathan 30.6 (top 10 5 times), Wagner 29.1 (top 10 4 times). Championship WPA: Nathan 25.4 (top 10 5 times), Wagner 25.9 (top 10 3 times). Rolaids Wins: Nathan 1, Wagner 1. WAR/162: Nathan 2.2, Wagner 2.2, Career WAR: Nathan 26.7, Wagner 27.7. Years facing designated hitters: Nathan 10, Wagner 0. I think you need to take another look at the analytics :).
  3. RJA
    Good article, Cody. I appreciate the detail and comparison data. I would have to give a slight edge to Santana given the two and what could have been 3 Cy Young awards. He was simply unbelievable in his prime. Nathan is not far behind, and I think your comparison data between Wagner and Nathan is really compelling. Actually, I think both of these guys deserve to be in the Hall, and at some point will be. Has anyone ever looked at the difference between small market stars and mega market stars when it comes to election to the Hall? I don't know if it is possible to quantify the difference but my gut tells me that big market players are more readily electable.
  4. RJA
    I love this series. It will make following these young guys a lot more fun this summer. He is so similar to Hajjar, left handed, improved fastball since working with Twins coaches, and projectable. Also, like Hajjar, he seems to have a good secondary pitch, in his case a curveball. I think both of them could move quickly this summer. As to who is the most intriguing prospect thus far, I have to go with Petty given the heat he can bring together with what looks like excellent secondary pitches. But, we will have to be patient with him. That being said, these two lefthanders are not far behind, and they are closer to the majors. Should be a fun summer watching the minors this year.
  5. RJA
    Good article. On the steroid front with Ortiz and Bonds, I do see a significant difference based on the evidence that has been made public. In Bonds situation, there is proof he tested positive at least 3 times for 3 different kinds of steroids. People testified they injected him regularly, there were doping charts, dosing charts, etc. that clearly showed a long term consistent use of steroids. He apparently also tested positive before his 73 home run year. In the case of Ortiz, he was on the original list of 100, but there is zero evidence he ever tested positive or used steroids during his career. He may have, but there is no evidence that he did. Plus, does anyone really want to argue that Bonds didn't use steroids and human growth hormones when his whole body, especially his head which grew by an inch in circumference, became bloated? His before and after pictures tell the whole story. I am not saying that Bonds shouldn't be in the Hall, I am just saying the difference in evidence between he and Ortiz is quite profound.
  6. RJA
    I would think the Twins will want him to pitch a few games in September just to see how he looks, but I think that will depend on how he does in a rehab assignment. If his rehab assignment goes well, he will get a few starts. Pitchers vary so much in how they respond to the surgery it is very difficult to predict. Maeda has some things going for him however. He seems to have a good head on his shoulders and is very professional in his approach to the game. I have no doubt he will do whatever he can to get back. Also, as you mentioned, his surgery option using an internal brace is a little less invasive so it could theoretically allow him to get back quicker. Cody, didn't Rich Hill opt for the internal brace procedure? Do you know who else has followed this path? Nice article, thanks.
  7. RJA
    Like some others, I think it is too early to predict the BP for Sands and Woods Richardson. I suspect Duran will be in the BP when he first gets to Target Field if for no other reason than to limit innings. This is a huge year for him. If he can stay healthy, he could have a good career, either in the rotation or the BP. If he can't stay healthy, I think his future is very clouded.
  8. RJA
    My frustration with the front office is that the team won 101 games in 2019, and were 36 and 24 in 2020. If ever a team should make a major investment in free agency, it is when you have a team capable of winning a 100 games a year. Instead, they did the usual wait and see what is available late, which totally collapsed on them last year. I will never understand why they didn't make a major push by trading for players or signing top flight free agents when they were on the cusp of being a series contender. It was a lost opportunity.
  9. RJA
    The Twins have an abundance of options but it will all depend on injuries and innings, so it is hard to predict within this group. My guess is Winder and Strotman will be the first starters at Target FIeld due to age and experience, and IF Duran's elbow strain is only that and not something more serious, then I think he will be first bullpen addition. I hope a couple of these guys really shine in spring training (whenever it starts), but I hope even more the Twins add a quality experienced starter or two.
  10. RJA
    Good information, Jamie. It is interesting how many pitchers can pick up 2-3 mph or more on their fastball after working with coaches after the draft. It seems like the Twins may be looking more at the quality of the secondary pitches when making draft picks thinking it is far easier to add some giddy up to a fastball than teach a changeup or slider to someone who has not shown the ability to throw good ones in the past. I know the Twins love sliders, but boy I love these kids that have great changeups just as much. I am enjoying this series. Thank you.
  11. RJA
    Interesting take, Nash. I think we all agree that Miranda will be at Target Field this summer, but the others kind of depend upon what the Twins do for trades once the lockout ends. So much depends on who if anyone they trade. For example, if they trade Kepler, then I think Celestino or Martin will see some time, but if they keep Kepler, they may choose to use him as a backup to Buxton while Celestino and Martin spend time at St. Paul in preparation for 2023. Likewise, if the Twins trade Arraez for pitching, I think Martin may be here this summer for sure as he could spend time at short, center, third, and second much like Arraez. And, of course, when they sign Story this will all change ;).
  12. RJA
    Great story. The whole Stigman clan was fantastic on the mound. His brother Al pitched for the Perham Pirates amateur team for years and many people thought his stuff was as good as Dick's, plus he was great at the plate. He is in the Minnesota Amateur Baseball Hall of Fame. Brother Dave pitched for Wadena as well. Amazing family.
  13. RJA
    Good topic for debate, Nick. Not sure I would put Polanco back at short for a couple of reasons. First, teams serious about contending don't move a player from a position he plays extremely well and with which he is comfortable to a position where he has struggled in the past defensively. By doing so, you effectively weaken both positions. Better to find someone to play shortstop that plays it well and leave Polanco at 2nd. Second, I don't think moving Polanco to second necessarily kept him healthier physically, but I think it kept him healthier mentally. I think he was more relaxed at second which allowed him to feel more comfortable at the plate. Third, while I agree the infield positions are not quite as important defensively given the new realities of the game, I do think if we are going to have a bunch of young pitchers on the mound this year, I would make sure we have a sound infield defense to avoid putting even more pressure on them with sloppy infield play. If we had a deep and experienced staff, it would be less of an issue. I would sign or trade for an excellent defensive shortstop, even one who offers little at the plate.
  14. RJA
    Nice article, Cody. Donaldson is a lightening rod for fan criticism, probably for reasons you mentioned, but also because he has an edge to his personality and can be outspoken on issues which some fans don't appreciate. I like his competitiveness and his edge as I think this team needs the intensity he brings every day. I am among those who think trading him, especially if we have to eat salary, makes no sense unless the return is exceptional. Buxton, Polanco, Donaldson, Kirilloff, Arraez and Garver form a good offensive core, Plus, with Miranda, Lewis, Larnach and others as possible additons, this team should score runs. Hopefully the front office is right about our young starters, or have a solid plan to acquire a good arm or two.
  15. RJA
    Nice description of kid's potential. Frankly, I thought the Twins reached a bit for this kid. I know they like to draft shortstops, but I guess I am a bit worried that if he doesn't make it as a shortstop, he lacks the offensive upside to be an asset elsewhere on the diamond. But, I confess I have not seen him play, and the scouts have, so I hope my concern is unfounded. Maybe he could be a Kolten Wong type player at second base if he doesn't make it at short.
  16. RJA
    Great analysis, Matthew. This question is kind of like asking me which is a better car, a BMW or a Mercedes. Both of these players are hall of fame guys who were elite players. That being said, I think I give an ever so slight edge to Puckett as he was a more inspirational personality than Carew and I think did a little bit better job raising the level of play and energy of those around him. Remember when he told his teammates before game six in 1991, "get on my back tomorrow, boys, I'm going to take us home." He did take them home. He was a remarkable leader.
  17. RJA
    Cody, I would have to say Lewis. He was among the best prospects in baseball before he struggled in 2019 and the injury bug bit him. As a former overall number one pick, the expectations for him and the hoopla around him were much greater than for Canterino and Duran. Plus, he has been out two years and his injury, as you noted, could definitely impact his long term potential. I think this really is a huge year for him.
  18. RJA
    Favorite moment. Hmmmm. Let me think. Hmmmm. I'll get back to you.
  19. RJA
    Wow! The kid is impressive. Like everyone else, I hope he stays away from injuries and harnesses his tremendous potential There are cases where young pitchers debut in their teens, but it is so rare. In the olden days, Joe Nuxhall debuted at 15 for the Reds in 1944 during WW2, and pitched into the mid 60's. Doc Gooden debuted for the Mets at 19 and struck out 276 batters and pitched over 200 innings in 1984. Boy, things have changed. There isn't a front office anywhere that would let that happen these days.
  20. RJA
    The owners are greedy, and I have little sympathy for them in any of this. Yet, I agree with Whitey that baseball players do have the best contract in professional sports as they have no salary cap. This allows the Correas of the world to get 300 million dollar contracts, but it doesn't do much for the average joe who is not a superstar. I would have more sympathy for the players if they made it their clear priority to help the average player rather than the superstars that are already prospering under this system. Boras brags about his influence with the players union, and many of the negotiating committee members are his clients. I think this causes them to negotiate what is best for the superstars. You see lots of players in free agency now who have a hard time finding homes. If free agency comes earlier, the players who will really benefit are the Correas of the world as they will get their megacontracts a year or two earlier. The average joe will still be lucky to find a job. Why not negotiate for a doubling of the minimal salary which would help far more players as only a very small percentage of them will ever be signed to 300 million dollar contracts. Greed on both sides.
  21. RJA
    I agree with others that the finger situation has to be resolved before an extension is offered. Beyond that, the Twins are in a much different situation than the Yankees in that they have pretty tight budget constraints. I am not sure I would commit 30 plus million to a bullpen arm, even one as good as Taylor, unless I was pretty certain that he was going to be a high leverage arm over those 3 years. Relievers, even excellent ones, can be unpredictable. So, I would wait and bid for him in free agency, or sign him mid summer after I had seen him pitch for half a season.
  22. RJA
    Seth, the Twins seem to have good people in development positions up and down the system. Do you think we will see any of them on the Twins staff in the next few years?
  23. RJA
    I couldn't say it more perfectly. I wish Francisco every happiness in the future.
  24. RJA
    I think you outlined the pros and cons of an extension very well, Nash. I like watching this kid play, so it is hard for me to be objective. But, if I were the front office I would see how this year goes, and if he is playing consistently again and his knees are holding up, I would consider an extension or trading him if Martin is ready. Martin would bring the same skills with more power and better defense. The Twins do need players who can get on base regularly, so he does have value to this team as it is presently constituted. It is hard not to pull for this kid--he has so much energy and a great personality.
  25. RJA
    Good list, Matthew. I agree with virtually everyone else--all would be good options. If the FO is going with young rotation, they better have good depth in the bullpen.
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