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Mike Frasier Law

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Everything posted by Mike Frasier Law

  1. Mike Frasier Law
    I think this is a result of the Supreme Court ruling last summer that effectively legalized sports gambling nationwide. It looks like MLB then negotiated an exclusive deal with MGM Grand, although I can't find any details of the deal.
  2. Mike Frasier Law
    If the Twins are in contention this summer, do you see them making a big acquisition to bolster their starting rotation?
  3. Mike Frasier Law
    They also have 2 starting pitchers in the top 25 on the season as well. Berrios at 15th with 2.1 WAR and Kyle Gibson at 25 with 1.5 WAR
  4. Mike Frasier Law
    In the last 30 days, Twins have 2 starting pitchers in the top 25 in baseball according to Fangraphs WAR: Berrios at 15th with 0.9 WAR and Lance Lynn at 18 with 0.8 WAR.
  5. Mike Frasier Law
    Well....u/Oxtung guessed an OPS between 750 and 800 and I took the over. 801 OPS for the win!
  6. Mike Frasier Law
    I didn't know this until you posted it, so I had to look it up. According to This BP Article, stabilization rates are the point at which R > .70. So that's the point at which "the signal to noise crosses the halfway point." The farther you get beyond the stabilization point, the more it becomes an indicator of true talent level over that time frame. Yes, past results don't imply future success. And yes, this stretch was during a time where Gibson faced worse teams. But the stark difference in k rate, bb rate, gb rate and fb rate indicate to me that he changed something. Will he sustain it? Who knows. But those statistics are ones pitchers have more control over and ones that stabilize quickly. So I think he's actually been a better pitcher, not just one facing worse teams.
  7. Mike Frasier Law
    Don't disagree with you in principle, but we need to look at stabilization rates for particular statistics. For example, a pitcher's BIP doesn't really stabilize until about 2000 balls in play. That's why I included the range of statistics I did. For reference, Kyle faced 376 batters in the first half, 248 in the second half. I can't find splits for balls in play, but this year he's had a total of 461 balls in play. Stabilization rates are as follows: K rate: 70 batters faced BB rate: 170 BF GB rate: 70 balls in play FB rate: 70 balls in play So, while we'd expect to see streaks in ERA, wins, and even HR rate (1320 batters faced), a significant change in strikeouts, walks, ground balls and fly balls become predictive much more quickly.
  8. Mike Frasier Law
    Is it too much to believe that Gibson made some adjustments that improved his game? He's had dramatically different results in each half. k/9 bb/9 hr/9 FIP xFIP gb/fb iffb% soft% hard% 5.64 4.20 1.77 5.93 5.05 1.88 2.6 13.7 38.6 7.50 2.25 0.45 3.03 3.58 2.30 12.5 17.2 30.6 FWIW, he's the 15th most valuable starter in the second half according to Fangraphs.
  9. Mike Frasier Law
    Second half statistics: Pitcher IP k/9 bb/9 hr/9 GB% ERA xFIP WAR Berrios 47 8.81 3.06 .77 34.6 4.21 4.46 1.1 Gibson 41 8.56 3.07 .66 54.9 4.17 3.62 1.0 Santana 55.2 8.89 2.75 1.46 36.8 3.88 4.58 0.8
  10. Mike Frasier Law
    In fact, according to Fangraphs, He's been the 3rd most valuable CF in baseball over the last 365 days. Trout 7.7 WAR Blackmon 6.5 Buxton 4.1 Inciarte 4.1 Dyson 4.0
  11. Mike Frasier Law
    This year, AL LF hit 266/334/429 with a 327 wOBA and a 103 wRC+ Rosario's season: 273/313/458 327 wOBA and 101 wRC+ He is pretty much exactly league average. Much less than what we want or need, but much better than replacement level on offense. It's his defense that's killing his value. According to Fangraphs, he's 5.2 runs below replacement on defense, putting him worse than nearly everyone in LF. He's like the polar opposite of Buxton. Rosario contributes .1 runs above replacement on offense but loses 5.2 runs on defense Buxton loses 7.6 runs on offense, but gets back 3.8 runs on baserunning and another 4.8 runs on defense. In the end, Buxton has a .5 WAR and Rosario has a .4 WAR.
  12. Mike Frasier Law
    His average exit velocity may be similar to last year, but there are other key differences. He's hitting far fewer ground balls (42.7% v 51.9%) He's hitting opposite field again. Last year his pull% was 30.8% and his oppo% was 35.2%. This year it's 22.2% and 42.5% respectively. His average exit velocity might be the same, but that's an average. Last year he hit more soft and more medium contact but less hard contact. I can see how that would about average out, but the results are very different. year soft% med% hard% 2016 13.4% 55.3% 31.3% 2017 11.8% 51.6% 36.6% So he's traded some weak and medium contact for harder contact, and he's hitting opposite field more than he's ever done in his career.
  13. Mike Frasier Law
    When would you say they figured out how to shift him? We could check the numbers. But I would guess his BABIP is more correlated with his batted ball profile (line drives) and hard hit% than the shift. Here's his BABIP by year: year BABIP 2005 322 2006 364 2007 319 2008 342 2009 373 2010 348 2011 319 2012 364 2013 383 2014 342 2015 309 2016 301
  14. Mike Frasier Law
    I'd definitely take the over on this. On the year, he has a .775 OPS with a .315 BABIP. Career his BABIP is .340. That makes sense with his line-drive heavy profile. Currently, he's right on track with his career line drives. But his ground ball% is better: 42.7% v 50.6% career. He's hitting a lot more fly balls. Fly balls have a slightly lower BABIP than ground balls, (.239 v. .207) but they more than make up for it with the power potential (.020 ISO v. .378 ISO). So, with this batted ball profile, we'd expect to see his BABIP a little lower than career, but his slugging% higher than his career. This is particularly true because he's hitting the ball as hard or harder than ever. His hard hit% is at 36.6% v 33.4% for his career. That is pre-concussion Mauer power: Year Hard hit% OPS 2007 36.9% 808 2009 37.6% 1031 2010 41.7% 871 2012 37.1% 862 2013 37.4% 880 2017 36.6% 775 So I bet he ends up over 800 OPS, absent an injury.
  15. Mike Frasier Law
    Well, I predicted a huge May, but I missed the mark. I predicted 340/380/450/830 Actual: 346/442/531/983 My prediction was based on some crazy good peripherals. Have they changed much? STAT APRIL MAY CAREER LEAGUE AVERAGE GB% 36.5% 50.8% 50% 44.5% hardhit% 36.5% 35.4% 33.3% 31.9% Exit Velo. 89.9mph 91.9 Oswing% 19% 20.1% 22% 29.2% ocontact% 88.6% 73.3% 76.8% 62.7% zswing% 47.5% 47.5% 55.1% 66.5% zcontact% 97.7% 94.3% 92.2% 85.5% Interestingly, it looks like he's regressed a little in May, but the results are way better. He's hitting the ball harder, but also hitting more ground balls. His ground ball percentage is the only one worse than league average. His exit velocity is 47th overall (Sano is at an easy 100.0mph). My guess for June: 325/390/455/845
  16. Mike Frasier Law
    Three weeks in. How is joe doing? I predicted 340/380/450/830 Actual 319/407/489/896
  17. Mike Frasier Law
    Last 14 days (9 games) 269/424/462 21.2% walk rate, 18.2% k rate .192 ISO 316 BABIP
  18. Mike Frasier Law
    One week in - how's my prediction? I predicted 340/380/450/830 actual 313/450/688/1138
  19. Mike Frasier Law
    So I'm not the only one, eh? Let's hope his luck catches up with his line drives
  20. Mike Frasier Law
    Joe's numbers are bad this year. There's no sugar coating it. But, as a true believer, I always find ways to believe in Joe. Here's 2017's version. Joe's hitting more fly balls. This is one of the first stats to stabilize (no complaints about small sample sizes). This is very good if they aren't pop-ups. Right now, he's hitting 36.5% ground balls - his career rate is 50%. nearly 42% of his hits are fly balls. Joe's hitting the ball hard. His hard hit percentage is at 36.5%. Career is at 33.3%. His average exit velocity ain't Sano's, but it is 89.9 mph - good for 60th in the league. Joe's insane plate discipline is insaner. He's swinging at 19% of pitches out of zone (league average 29.1%) he's hitting 88.6% of the out-of-zone pitches he hits (league average 62.5%) for in-zone, he's swinging at 47.5% and hitting 97.7%!! League average is 66.7% swinging and 85.5% contact. It's all very weird that he's not getting results. My prediction: huge month of May. 340/380/450/830
  21. Mike Frasier Law
    Miguel Sano hits the ball hard. Oh right, this is about numbers. He leads baseball in average exit velocity. For context, the top 50 leaderboard in average exit velocity ranges from 90.7 mph to 96.2 mph. Except 96.2 mph is second place. Sano is comfortably ahead at 102.1. The difference between his exit velocity and second place (Khris Davis) is greater than the difference between #2 and #50.
  22. Mike Frasier Law
    4/17 update: it's down to 3: Panik, Polanco, and JJ Hardy. Interestingly, the next two on the list are Nunez (98.2% zone contact) and Mauer (97.5% zone contact)
  23. Mike Frasier Law
    The twins have outscored their opponents by 20 runs this year - best in the AL. Second best in the AL are the Yankees at +12. This is in part because the Twins have averaged 5 runs per game, second in the AL only to the Rangers (at 6!) But mostly it's because the Twins have given up the fewest runs per game in baseball. 2.78 runs allowed per game.
  24. Mike Frasier Law
    as of today, 5 players in baseball haven't swung and missed at a pitch in the strike zone: Joe Panik Mekly Cabrera Andrew Benintendi JJ Hardy Jorge Polanco
  25. Mike Frasier Law
    http://www.twincities.com/2011/03/27/luke-hughes-leads-twins-hitters-in-spring-training-but-hes-sent-back-to-minors-for-now/ I'm so glad I'll never have to read a paragraph like this again: Hughes, 26, led the Twins this spring in home runs (six), RBIs (15), slugging percentage (.567) and total bases (37) while playing every infield position, yet it wasn’t enough to supplant Matt Tolbert as the team’s heir apparent utility infielder.
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