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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Everth Cabrera was selected from Low A by the Padres. Polanco could be selected. Spend a year as utility. Get seasoning in minors in 2015. With the large pitching staffs, utility infielder and the bullpen are the only spots to stash players. Protect Polanco.
  2. jorgenswest
    He needs to be up from opening day. He needs to adjust to the majors with a fresh arm and his best stuff. We don't need him throwing high pitch count games in AAA like Gibson. The service time issue should not be a concern for a 24 year old pitcher.
  3. jorgenswest
    Liriano made a great decision for his career. Going to the Pirates put him in an environment with a very good defense behind him and one of the best defensive catchers in baseball. Any free agent pitcher trying to build value towards their next contract should be advised to strongly consider the Pirates. Josh Johnson and Phil Hughes should be first in line.
  4. jorgenswest
    Is it possible that the difference is due to the defense behind him? Isn't that the point of the FIP variations?
  5. jorgenswest
    I would also consider the following. Any group of age 30+ pitchers can be expected to decline. FIP based WAR is dependent on strike out and walk numbers. Both of those numbers take a hit when Ryan Doumit is catching. Josmil Pinto may be better than Doumit, but he is likely to be far below average also. With the current catching, any pitcher coming from an average or better catching staff can expect a decline in K/BB numbers and there a decline in FIP and WAR. If the Twins were to sign a trio of those guys ( Kazmir, Nolasco, Jimenez) I would expect their combined WAR to be closer to 6 than 9. I think the Twins can expect both Gibson and Worley to be better. I also think Meyer should be in the rotation from opening day. As a trio, they may project in the 4 WAR range. In 2015, they will improve and the signed trio will take another decline. At that point they could project better.
  6. jorgenswest
    It is critical that the Twins add a catcher that can defend. Ideally it would be a starter. There are doubts that Pinto can handle the job defensively. Doumit caught far too many games this year. He will catch more next year. if the Twins go into next season and find out Pinto is a significant defensive liability, where will they turn? Even a defense only catcher like Butera costs a premium during the seasons Look at it from a free agent pitchers point of view. A pitcher like Hughes or Johnson are going to look to build their value towards the next contract. They need to put themselves in a good situation. Any agent is going to make them aware of the significant decrease in K/BB ratios with Doumit catching. They will be aware of the the pitch framing data. Ryan has publicized the concerns about Pinto's defense. Why sign into that situation and damage your future value? Catcher needs to be an early priority this winter.
  7. jorgenswest
    It would be a mistake to move Rosario if he can field the position. It is unlikely that Dozier's HR/OFB rate of 14.4% is sustainable. It is more than double his rate as a minor leaguer. The difference is 10 home runs. It would be wise to see if Dozier's power is really a new skill before moving Rosario.
  8. jorgenswest
    They probably make similar minor league free agent signings every winter. He isn't going to hold Rosario and Santana. Rosario's defense may hold him back. They may decide he doesn't have the skill to play second defensively and move him to LF. If that happens, Bartlett's signing will not be the reason.
  9. jorgenswest
    There are other options. Phillips was mentioned above. Infante and Johnson are free agents. David Adams and Corban Joseph have minor league OBPs better than Rosario and have more experience at the upper level of the minors. Rosario's much younger age makes him the better long term prospect, but not the better option for 2014. Dozier home run surge the second half helps, but there is little else to distinguish him for the two Yankee minor leaguers. He probably doesn't sustain the increase in HR/FB rate next year. I don't see the motivation on the Yankees part to make this deal.
  10. jorgenswest
    I think it is important for Meyer to be up early while his arm is fresh. He needs to learn to adjust to major leaguers with his best stuff. The Twins waited far too long on Gibson. We saw him through high pitch count games in AAA. I hope we didn't see him at his best.
  11. jorgenswest
    Dozier is an up the middle player. He will get a longer chance to succeed or fall into a utility role. Hicks has to make it by his bat. He is going to need a lot of AA and AAA at bats to be successful. How is that going to happen by 25 if he starts in High A at 24? By the time he does get to the majors, he will have nothing left in the growth curve. I think the way the a Twins have chosen to handle him demonstrates that they don't see him as a prospect.
  12. jorgenswest
    Kubel is a poor fielder that should only be a DH. He is too old to improve his poor defense. I would prefer the a Twins choose defense and the upside of younger players over veteran hitters who might squeeze one more good year out if their bat but are certain to be a liability in the field. Lets back up our pitching with a good defense. Kansas City and Pitsburgh had great defenses. A better defense makes every one of their pitchers appear more valuable with their improved numbers.
  13. jorgenswest
    I would think Johnson will be seeking a one year deal (no team option) as long as he believes his ace level of performance. In this case money will not be the most important factor. He can give up a few million this year as long as he can find a situation where he will have a big year. If he does that few million will be more than made up in his next contract. He will get one year offers. Will it be the Twins? Will he see the Twins as the best place to build his value for 2015?
  14. jorgenswest
    At their ages, Hicks and Vargas needed to be pushed up last summer. Hicks will have just turned 24 as the minor league season starts next year. Vargas is 23 and turns 24 in August. You might see catchers or possibly up the middle prospects at that age in AA. Those prospects have both parts of their game to develop. You don't see bat only prospects at 24 in AA. The earlier mentioned David Ortiz started in High A and moved to AA and AAA all in his 21 year old season. Allen Craig was an older prospect for the Cardinals. Like Hicks, he was a college guy. He played his first full season in high A(22) and second full season at AA(23). He hit AAA at 24 in spite of being in college. Vargas is on a similar age path as Craig, but he has been in pro ball since he was 18. If he was a prospect, he should have moved quicker. Hicks is behind by a year or two. He was a college player but so was Craig. If he was a prospect, he should have been moved up. The Twins need one of these guys in AAA next year and one in AA. It is time to find out if they are prospects.
  15. jorgenswest
    What technologies or data or new analysis have most helped major league teams in their decision making process in the last 5-10 years? What's next? Any emerging technologies or analysis that teams will be available in the next 5 years?
  16. jorgenswest
    Can they get by with an 11 man staff? If so and they create real platoons with the larger bench, it is worth considering. If not, I don't see the point with the current starters.
  17. jorgenswest
    I think Ubaldo will be looking for his last long large contract. He has to see this as buy high. I think he will take the best offer and it can be the Twins. The risk with Ubaldo is that he is either very good or very bad. When he is bad, he can't be on the staff of a contending team. I don't think he is going to age into an innings eating league savvy veteran. If they sign him for 4, how much good Ubaldo do they get?
  18. jorgenswest
    Not at all... While I agree with his statement about a second round pick, he only speaks to the second round pick as if having it is independent of all other picks. The concern is about having fewer dollars in the draft. That impacts the first pick. The context of the draft has changed. In the old system, Manaea doesn't make it to the Royals. He is drafted by a larger market team that doesn't have a draft cap to worry about. In the new system, a team to could go under slot with their first pick in order to take a second pick falling due to their salary demands. It could go the other direction also. If they lose those dollars, the Twins might have to pass on a player in the first round who they might have to go over slot. They won't have the flexibility to do so.
  19. jorgenswest
    It isn't just losing the pick. It is also losing a lot of draft cap dollars and flexibility. No one can foresee how they might need those dollars next year. It could be someone dropping to them and needing the flexibility to go over slot with their first pick and make it up on the second. It could be going under slot with the first pick and taking someone dropping to the second round. The Royals did something like this to sign their supplemental pick Manaea. In the new draft context, you give up flexibility when you give up the pick. Teams were reluctant to do that last winter.
  20. jorgenswest
    Like Lincecom, Hughes is young for a free agent and probably doesn't see this as a last contract. Signing for two years in a situation where he can thrive will lead to a bigger contract in two years. Will he see Minnesota as the place where he can thrive? Would he have confidence in the park, pitching coach, catching situation and overall defense to believe this is the place?
  21. jorgenswest
    The Dodgers entered this season trading for Ramon Hernandez. At the time if his release, he was their best hitting catcher by OPS. He is also a historically poor receiver. Yeager referenced this skill as they changed from Hernandez to Federowicz. The Dodgers have shown with their Hernandez, Federowicz and Butera roster decisions that they have shifted in how they value defense at catcher. That shift happened after the start of this season. I am am not sure how Ellis measures up. There is some info in the link below Source Studying the art of pitch framing by catchers such as Francisco Cervelli, Chris Stewart, Jose Molina, and others - Grantland Back to the Twins... Do they need to make a similar shift?
  22. jorgenswest
    I think Meyer needs to open with the team next year. He will be 24. The clock is ticking on his velocity. The a Twins do not need to worry about control for a pitcher. Injuries will occur before control expires.
  23. jorgenswest
    I am not sure why a Butera is almost a run better than Doumit. It isn't Pavano though. Pavano pitched very poorly in 2012 in a injury shortened season. The Twins need to assess how much of that run and how much is due to the skill of the catcher. One run is huge. A half a run is huge. The difference between Minnesota and the top pitching and defense in the AL in 1.17 runs. They were .57 away from the average pitching and defense. Doumit caught around 100 games the last two seasons. He wasn't the cause of the poor pitching. His defense made a bad situation much worse. I think the a Twins would have been better off making a bad situation a little better.
  24. jorgenswest
    Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average. Fangraphs relies on FIP to calculate WAR for pitchers. Is FIP independent of the catcher? The following table shows pitching performance by catcher over the last two seasons. [TABLE=width: 500] Catcher Inn K/BB FIP Joe Mauer 1286 2.32 4.32 Ryan Doumit 865 1.65 4.78 Drew Butera 307 2.53 3.80 Chris Herrmann 228 2.18 4.44 [/TD] [TD] [/TABLE] Could this be random variation? Sample size? The number of innings for the catchers exceeds that expected of a starter in a full season. Is it possible that Butera always caught the more talented pitchers? The Twins haven't had a starter really stand out to make this difference. As the Twins make roster decisions for next year, can they move forward with any plan to play Doumit at catcher? Even if the difference between Butera and Doumit was half the the difference in FIPs, there is no way Doumit made up for that difference with the bat. Successful teams are playing catchers that can't hit. Drew Butera returns a real prospect in trade. The Twins need to start paying attention.
  25. jorgenswest
    Do the presence of Willingham and Doumit keep the Twins from looking for a hitter or a player who may need to DH? Doumit and Willingham are not part of the solution. Abreu could be. We could have given Willingham to the Orioles and used those dollars on someone who will be a longer term solution.
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