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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I wouldn't trade him for the return the Padres received for Street. It will take more than a fringe 100 prospect that plays only 2B, a young good glove SS with a questionable bat in A ball and a reliever prospect. The Padres did well to get that return for Street who has an option for next year. They probably need one guy to make it to balance the year and half they lose on Street. It would take two of those players to become regulars for the trade to work out in comparison to Perkins and his longer commitment. I don't think that is happening. I also don't think the market will return more. I'd rather keep Perkins.
  2. jorgenswest
    I didn't give them the middling ranking in young player talent. BP did. The players you mention (other than Gordon) helped them achieve the ranking at number 13. I do wonder if that ranking dropped considering key under 25 players in Buxton, Sano, Arcia, Pinto, Hicks, Rosario and Meyer have not had stellar seasons. My point was that it is far better to compare our young players against the young players in other organizations regardless of their minor or major league status. It is nice to have the number two ranked farm system. It would be better to be ranked number 2 among young players. In that context, the Twins find themselves in the middle.
  3. jorgenswest
    To anyone really interested... http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22934 Their catcher data is much is also more detailed than stat corners data. It appears Suzuki has fallen towards the bottom of the rankings and is at the bottom on the season totals. It isn't because he is doing worse. It is just because the guys usually below him (Doumit, Buck, Santana, Hundley, Hernandez, Montero, Olivo, Napoli) aren't catching very much anymore. Suzuki has always been below average. Recently the poor framers on the bottom have lost regular catching jobs. Their absence doesn't make the difference between a Suzuki and Molina greater. The only thing that matters is the impact on his trade value. The teams looking for a catcher are not among the teams routinely referenced in the framing articles. I don't think it will keep them from considering him.
  4. jorgenswest
    It would really be better to rank teams based on talent under 25 years old. I think it is more telling of the hope for the future. BP did one just prior to the season and the Twins were 13th. It helps their farm system ranking to have Meyer and May waiting in the wings. I would be better to have them finding success in the majors. It was great to have Meyer, May and Vargas on the futures roster until you realize that they are among the 5 oldest players and one of the other two is a recent Cuban defect and in the minors less than a year. At some point, the Twins need to decide the future is now.
  5. jorgenswest
    Correia's arm has always been heathy in his 12 year career. I appreciate the hard work he must have put in to remain healthy throughout his career. Noting his his health, he has been on the DL twice. Both times it was the oblique. There were two other times where he had a short stint listed DTD. His reliably healthy arm must have some value to a team struggling with injuries to their rotation. The return won't be exciting, but the a Twins should be able to move him.
  6. jorgenswest
    Looks like Pat Dean is next on the list.
  7. jorgenswest
    The Twins should have let Willingham go to the Orioles when they claimed him. It would have forced to look for a middle of the order bat. When you sign decline players to multiyear contracts, you end up enduring some bad years while not seeking other solutions.
  8. jorgenswest
    If Suzuki has decided to test the market, I don't think keeping him will make it more likely he will sign with the Twins. He will be looking for the best possible possible offer in likely his last good contract. The Twins can be the team that makes that offer whether he is traded or not. Moving him now for the best the market has to offer is the best long term move. If the best they can get is a Mike O'Neill who was recently DFA'd then the market for him in the winter won't be that competitive either.
  9. jorgenswest
    I don't know if Ryan is selling. I do know that this team is not going to be in the playoffs.
  10. jorgenswest
    Shouldn't handling a pitching staff show up in the defense independent stats? Wouldn't it result in more strike outs and fewer walks? Suzuki didn't fare very well when compared to the other catchers Oakland and Washngton rostered. Over three years and and sample of 12000+ plate appearances, the other 12 catchers have a 23% better strikeout walk ratio, a strikeout rate that is 9% better and a walk rate that is 11% better. Suzuki may be good at handling a staff, but shouldn't it show up somewhere in the performance of the pitchers? The National and A's seem to be managing OK without him (1st and 3rd in ERA). If handling a pitching staff doesn't impact performance, why do we care if a catcher is good at it?
  11. jorgenswest
    22- Pino 23- Gibson 24- Hughes 25- Correia 26- ???? 27- Pino 28- day off i don't see it the same as Len3.
  12. jorgenswest
    Why would he take that deal in season? Trade him to Cardinals or Orioles and try to sign him in the winter.
  13. jorgenswest
    According to Russell Carlton's work, it takes a pretty large sample size for OBP (420 PA) and SLG (360 AB) to stabilize. OPS couldn't stabilize earlier than those two. Batting average is 910 AB. That threshold would be needed from each side of the split. Any split will always be a small sample. Looking at splits, compare the rate stats. Strike out rate - 60 PA Walk rate - 120 PA Ground ball rate - 80 BIP Fly Ball rate - 80 BIP ISO - 160 AB
  14. jorgenswest
    I was wondering about that too. It really isn't wise to leak this information. Wouldn't it also tell other teams that the Twins are motivated to trade since extension talks have gone cold? It seems like they would be in a better position to trade if they leaked that they were having extension discussions. PR decisions need to take a back seat to baseball decisions. They can lie to me all they want as long as the team gets better.
  15. jorgenswest
    Looks like Suzuki wants to test the market. Berardino reports that contract talks fizzle fast. http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_26188736/twins-kurt-suzuki-contract-talks-fizzled-fast This is Suzuki's last shot a good contract. It is easy to understand why he would want to test the market. It certainly doesn't appear Suzuki will sign a reasonable extension this summer. The Twins need to take the best offer and try to sign him in the winter.
  16. jorgenswest
    I am sure the Twins will him from within the organization. They would benefit more from hiring outside. Four consecutive bad seasons results from a failure top to bottom.
  17. jorgenswest
    I think they have 9 games before the deadline. The game on the 31st is after the deadline. They need to go 9-0 to be .500 at the deadline. One more loss and it is time to sell off everyone without a 2015 commitment for whatever the market will return.
  18. jorgenswest
    The Twins record with Aaron Hicks in the box score is 25-23 (21-20 in games started). I don't think any other position player is above .500.
  19. jorgenswest
    He will be a free agent in 2020 unless his current team picks up the 16 million option for that year. In that case it is 2021.
  20. jorgenswest
    I agree. No point in bringing him up in trade discussion. The Twins closed the door on a Street like return with the extension. I hope they don't extend Dozier.
  21. jorgenswest
    As a baseball decision, they traded Aiken and Nix for the number 2 pick in the draft next year. If the ligament was a significant concern, it may turn out to be a good deal for them. If that pick is Duke's 's Mike Matuella, they end up with a player of comparable talent with the same or earlier arrival time in the major leagues.
  22. jorgenswest
    The a Twins should always listen. As long as they don't sign Dozier to a long term contract and he plays well, he will retain his value in the trade market. Perkins trade value dropped with his new contract through age 34. The Padres received a nice return for Street who is a year younger with a shorter commitment. Perkins was in a similar spot last year.
  23. jorgenswest
    It is a brain injury. If the Twins were to go that direction with a player, no one would sign a contract to play here. They wouldn't be able to spend the recovered money in the free agent market.
  24. jorgenswest
    The Twins are a mid market team. They can afford to pay the arbitration cost. The difference between that number and the negotiated number isn't going to be enough to matter. Dozier is under team control until age 32. I look forward to the big dollars he will earn based on big performance.
  25. jorgenswest
    The Twins need to become sellers at 54 losses. There is still hope, but the window is closing after stumbling out if the second half gate. Two teams desperate for wins. One team looked ready.
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