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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I would guess they will call up Berrios on the day of his start. I have to believe that is Monday. No reason to call him up sooner than he will pitch. Santana has shown teams everything they need to see. Another start Sunday doesn't change his value unless he is injured or dips in velocity for some reason. They should move him before Sunday and go with Rogers/May/bullpen assuming they aren't spent in short starts by Nolasco or Milone in the previous two games.
  2. jorgenswest
    Teams feel like they have many more options in the winter. The perceived roster is healthier. The prospect from AAA is untarnished. A 33 year old pitcher with a poorer second half or injury loses value. There is too much question about whether they would bounce back. If the Twins keep Santana, they gamble that does not happen. I would trade him and take best offer. In general, I do agree about keeping the team mostly in tact for the new GM. Plouffe, Suzuki, Nolasco, Santana, Kintzler and Abad would be exceptions.
  3. jorgenswest
    Any thoughts on holding back Wheeler or how to fill in for Nolasco, Milone or Santana should they be traded before their start? Do they go with a bullpen day? Do they bring up Dean or Darnell or Albers since they line up better? Do they wait to trade them after their next start? Discussion about holding back Berrios might make a good thread on its own.
  4. jorgenswest
    Trade deadline on Monday. Berrios is lined up for a Monday start. Wheeler is lined up for today and Tuesday. Those are the two guys that the Twins should get in the rotation. Santana is slotted for a Sunday start. If he is traded prior to Sunday, Wheeler and Berrios would not be available. The guy slotted for Sunday is Albers. The Twins would be better off making it a bullpen game and throw Duffey in the bullpen mix for that day. Berrios takes his Monday start. A better option might be to hold Wheeler back and have him ready if Santana, Nolasco or Milone are moved. Berrios starts Monday for Duffey.
  5. jorgenswest
    I appreciate your work. When I see stuff like this questions abound in my mind. I wonder why 10 rounds? Why not all rounds? Why not 6 rounds? What is special about 10? I would guess the Twins had a below average draft position from 2008-2011. I wonder about the draft positions of the teams below them. I also order how much of the WAR above was generated by players drafted before the Twins or any specific team had an opportunity to select. Finally, I wonder if a focus on high school players vs college players would skew the results.
  6. jorgenswest
    The Twins should expect Santana to decline the next two years as they assess offers. If they think he will continue to perform at the same level ages 34-35 as he has 32-33 they would be gambling on the short side of likelihood.
  7. jorgenswest
    I don't think it matters long term for his development whether he came up after the all star break, today, next week or September 1st. All will allow him a chance to have some success going into the off season. I do think it is important that he ends the season with a healthy arm. High pitch count innings are stressful on an arm. In his first go around he averaged over 21 pitches an inning. Molitor will have to monitor this carefully.
  8. jorgenswest
    Dave Stewart might win this deal. He has already received good value from a major league player. Toussaint is a long way away and not progressing. The Twins don't need salary relief. They don't need to add Walker or anyone to rid themselves of a contract. If the trade is Nolasco and Walker and they get a 26 year old that can be valuable to the roster for their control years, I am in.
  9. jorgenswest
    Didn't they give up Phillip Gosselin? He has a .773 OPS for Arizona in the last year playing 5 positions. That is probably better than his ability but a very useful player on any major league roster.
  10. jorgenswest
    Whether he was up after the all star break or after the the trade deadline will make no difference in his development or future. I will wait until August 2 before joining the crowd calling for his return.
  11. jorgenswest
    It seems likely the trouble he has at third with pop ups and routine grounders would be similar at first base. His plus of a great arm would be of no use. I think it is 3B or DH. He has to be the 3B going into next year to really evaluate.
  12. jorgenswest
    Didn't Pelfrey get 16 million over two years from Detroit? Is it that different from 12 million over 1 year + 60 games this year?
  13. jorgenswest
    My premise starts with a team truly interested. If that is the case the dollars remaining are very reasonable for a back of a rotation starter. If they don't think he can be a back of the rotation starter why would they want him at any cost? I don't think any team is interested which leads to waivers. No reason to throw in ABW in either case.
  14. jorgenswest
    Seth stated at the time of the trade that Chris Herrmann could be an average hitter for a catcher. If you followed his minor league career, you might make the same assessment. I keep reading posters quote slash stats, but they really don't have any meaning in his major league sample or as a career starter. If the Twins had anyone recommend this deal based on Herrmann's major league slash stats, they need to be cleared out by the new GM. His upside might have been an average bat, average arm and poor other catcher skills. That has value to the Twins and other teams. The Twins really needed to assess whether they could improve the catcher position to the point where he was an obvious DFA. Adding Murphy, who had options, should not have been that clear. Why not go to spring with both? A DFA of Herrmann at the end March when every team is making similar moves probably would have passed him through. Where is the greater need? Catcher or corner/DH?
  15. jorgenswest
    If there really is anyone interested in Nolasco, the Twins should be able to give him away by throwing in 4-5 million. At that point, he is the cost of a one year flyer on a Pelfrey. They don't need to add ABW. They just need to find a team truly interested.
  16. jorgenswest
    I highly doubt his trade value has changed. Players don't ride the roller coaster of trade value. Teams know slash stats need a sample larger than a partial season to be meaningful. He likely viewed as poor fielding SS/3B with a mid 700s OPS and speed. That has value to both the Twins next year and other teams. If the Twins believe Polanco can match his defense at SS, they should make a move. They probably don't believe that since Polanco is not playing SS. They don't need to call him up and find out if he can play SS. That is a determination that should be made in the minors. It looks like they made that determination.
  17. jorgenswest
    Chris Herrmann is not a good framer this year or previous. On a per game basis though, he is in the neighborhood of some regular catchers like Navarro and Vogt. Centeno (in samples over 1000) has the poorest per game framing numbers in baseball. Herrmann did pretty well throwing out runners with the Twins and has continued to do well with the Diamondbacks. Seth argued at the time that he could be an average major league hitter relative to catchers. This is not the kind of player the Twins could afford to give up for a corner guy. I am not convinced that Herrmann has the defense to be a regular catcher or enough bat to have a Doumit type role. It is quite possible that he is a better option than either Centeno or Murphy. The same personnel that recommended the Murphy and Herrmann moves are the people advising Antony right now.
  18. jorgenswest
    I think the original writer's point was that though they had high picks they didn't have the opportunity for those players. If they had tanked, they may have had that opportunity. I could be mistaken. I certainly expect them to fight for every win. Every baseball game is a joy in itself. None should be wasted.
  19. jorgenswest
    There is the possibility that a team without prospects would need Minnesota to join as a third team. However, every team probably has prospects in the list above. It might be more the Polanco level where Minnesota would jump in as the third team.
  20. jorgenswest
    Ryan's gone. Time to stop looking backward and rearguing every decision. Let's look forward. If I can't trade Plouffe, I would not tender an offer. Let him go and give Sano a full year at 3B. Can anyone argue for taking Plouffe to arbitration this winter?
  21. jorgenswest
    I would also. I do wonder if they can get a pitcher with more upside if they are willing to part with Sisco.
  22. jorgenswest
    Nunez is too old to extend. They have next year under control. If he is at all star level next year, they can give him a qualifying offer. Otherwise he will be 31 when he hits free agency. Fielding declines first and his fielding has no where to decline. There is little reason to extend him and buy the decline phase of his career.
  23. jorgenswest
    It is not a matter of trusting Murphy. It is a matter of having the patience to develop the next catcher. Patience the Twins should have shown with Hicks. They could have played another guy while he developed in AAA following the trades of Span and Revere. They can have patience with Garver. Garver has all of 39 starts at catcher above A ball and 202 games caught overall. How do you go from there to a starting major league catcher? Even Brian Harper had over 400 games at catcher in the minors.
  24. jorgenswest
    The trade deadline is of little importance compared to the need to overhaul the front office. They need a real analytics department, a real medical department and minds from the outside. Even if Antony were to get a great return for Suzuki or Nunez, that should not be the deciding factor in whether he stays as GM. What is his plan to overhaul the front office? What is his vision for the future and how will the Twins not only catch up to the curve but stay ahead of it? What is his vision for skills from a manager? Can he pinpoint where the current management has failed and areas where he needs to replace staff? Trades are a very small part of this job.
  25. jorgenswest
    The Twins have moved so many guys up with little AAA time. Will it be a mistake with Garver? There isn't a position on the field that takes more time to develop than catcher.
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