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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    With the lowest K rate at 19.7% and high walk rate at 10.1% of his career, any team should carefully do their homework. His career rates entering this season were 23.1% and 8.7%. I think both numbers have shifted in the wrong direction significantly. The drop and the move to the AL seems a very risky signing.
  2. jorgenswest
    I don’t think it would be wise to give him an extension beyond two years even if that means he gets a boost next year plus two more. He likely wouldn’t take the deal and move on. Even at two years, I don’t think it is a wise move. Polanco’s best fit is probably 2B.
  3. jorgenswest
    It will be very difficult to turn around the pitching. They can try to trade some of their best assets for a top prospect as the Indians did with Trevor Bauer. Other than that they are going to have to develop really well and identify undervalued prospects in other organizations. Next year it might be best to invest in the pen and give opportunities for some of the younger pitchers who have just arrived or will be arriving in AAA.
  4. jorgenswest
    Good point on Rosario. Dozier would be a better match. Dozier will be 31 and had a slightly lower OPS+ with both having a year of control left. Either way, I don’t think Pittsburgh does the deal.
  5. jorgenswest
    The Indians are an interesting case. It might be a case for trades and patience. The gave up a lot to get Bauer and Shaw in a three team trade. A similar trade might be Rosario and Gordon to the Pirates for Glasnow and Rivero. They identified the talent in Kluber and acquired him at a reasonable cost. The Twins will need to be similarly talented in acquiring minor leaguers for middling veterans. Carrasco was a prospect in the Cliff Lee deal. The Twins don’t have a Cliff Lee to trade but they can find a good prospect for Santana and it would be up to them to identify that good pitching prospect. They also found the talent Clevenger and acquired him inexpensively. Salazar and Tomlin are homegrown and maybe the Twins have them in Romero and Gibson. Maybe they have a homegrown version of Cody Allen developing. In order to be successful, the Twins will need to be better than most at identifiying talent and they need to be willing to trade some key players and prospects. After that will take some patience as many of those deals took a few years to pay off for the Indians. Once they are close, they can make that trade deadline deal for a great reliever. The trade rumor article is helpful. I do wonder how many failed prospects the Indians have acquired I. Trade in the last 5 years.
  6. jorgenswest
    Love to have a Glasnow. He was lights out in AAA. Pittsburgh will have patience and he is likely ready to contribute next year. If they want to move him, they will find a return better than Santana. If Houston doesn’t get to World Series, they may look to add veterans and really push for next year. Martes seems like a more feasible return for Santana. Martes probably not ready to make significant contribution next year. He really struggled in AAA. Love the upside.
  7. jorgenswest
    Easy decision to put Sano on the roster for the wild card game. Would you have more confidence pinch hitting Garver or Vargas for Castro late in the game? They probably should take all 3. If they need more than 10 pitchers, it won't matter if Sano is on the bench. There is a spot for everyone but Goodrum.
  8. jorgenswest
    Maybe not set but tie 1978 and 1994.
  9. jorgenswest
    If they can do better than Molitor, it is their responsibility to replace him. If they see Molitor as a better than average manager but have someone in mind they believe will be among the best, they have to make that move. Don't they?
  10. jorgenswest
    With less than 1000 PAs it is likely we haven't seen the best of Vargas. The Twins management will need to do a good job of evaluating his ceiling as they build the roster for next year. He certainly is worthy of a 40 man roster spot this winter.
  11. jorgenswest
    How many teams have a utility player with 20 home runs and 75 RBIs? The Escobar deal was a steal.
  12. jorgenswest
    A stress reaction to a weight bearing bone can take 4 weeks or 8 weeks. His injury is somewhat similar to Harper's who isn't back yet and I think was out a week before Sano. Perhaps there is similar frustration with Harper on a Nationals fan site.
  13. jorgenswest
    Severino doesn't line up well for that spot. They moved him up to get two more starts during the season in hopes of catching Boston. Right now he looks to start a Monday and Saturday. The Twins used the off days in September to get Santana lined up for the game. Rain could throw a wrench in that plan. Gibson is the next best fit (by schedule) for pitching that day.
  14. jorgenswest
    Some context... The contract guaranteed 3/2/2 if Morris accepted the player option. Higuera had sign a 4 year 13 million guaranteed contract early that winter. Other pitchers were getting guarantees of 10 million or more. Baseball was coming out of collusion and salaries were escalating very quickly. The going rate for a top pitcher was going to pass 5 million. Golden signed a 3 year extension for 15.45 million guaranteed prior to the 1991 season. Three days after the Twins signed Morris, Clemens signed a 4 year extension worth a guaranteed 21.521 with an option for 5.5 million more. Collusion a thing of the past, salaries were escalating and each new contract seemed remarkable to newspapers. The Twins guaranteed 7 million to Morris and 3 days later Clemens got a guarantee of three times as much. The Morris signing was critical to the Twins, but he didn't get Clemens money or even Higuera money. He didn't earn top tier pitcher money until after 1991 when the Blue Jays gave him more than 5 million a year. Relative to Twins signings the commitment was more similar to that of Nolasco or Santana.
  15. jorgenswest
    Being able to start and play an average CF through his prime would definitely make Rosario more valuable. The metrics don't suggest he should be a starting CF. He has fallen to the level of an average LF. When compared to the group of CF instead of LF he wouldn't be close to average. Maybe the metrics are incorrect but it is hard to imagine teams targeting him for their CF spot the next 3-4 years. The reality is that pitching is at such a high premium that it is hard to get major league pitching without trading quality young minor league pitching. Average corner outfielders aren't far enough above replacement level to expect a good pitching return.
  16. jorgenswest
    Need to clinch it before Friday in order to set up Berrios or skip a start earlier. He is in the worst spot to get that start. All others can more easily hit that day. It really doesn't seem likely that everything will be resolved before that Friday. That would mean they either locked up the first wild card or locked up the second with no chance for the first.
  17. jorgenswest
    I am not sure how much demand there is for a corner OF. At last trade deadline, it was almost entirely pitchers. J.D. Martinez was moved. He didn't net any pitchers in return. The return was 3 infielders a long way from the majors. I certainly would want more for Rosario and Martinez is the better player today. Pitching is a premium followed by catching, shortstop and centerfield. There will be little demand and more supply everywhere else.
  18. jorgenswest
    The path for Berrios to the WC game isn't as clear and unless they use him on short rest or skip a start for him. As written, they need to do some juggling with the off days and keep Santana every fifth day for him to start that game.
  19. jorgenswest
    The way the rotation lines up now, Ervin Santana is lined up to start the AL wild card game by taking his normal rest. In order to get there they would need to skip or push back a starter on the two off days. I think they plan to skip the 5th starter this next week. The hope is that Mejia will be ready later next week. It could plan out this way 9-12 SD Gibson 9-13 SD Santana 9-14 TOR Berrios 9-15 TOR Mejia/5th 9-16 TOR Colon 9-17 TOR Gibson 9-18 NYY Santana 9-19 NYY Berrios 9-20 NYY Mejia/5th 9-21 DET Colon 9-22 DET Gibson 9-23 DET Santana 9-24 DET Berrios 9-25 off 9-26 CLE Colon 9-27 CLE Gibson 9-28 CLE Santana 9-29 DET Berrios 9-30 DET Mejia/5th 10-1 DET Colon 10-3 WC Santana How would you map it out? You could probably set it so that it was Gibson or Colon instead in that game.
  20. jorgenswest
    What valuable would be learned in a September look? The Twins have had eyes on them all year. A September sample is not going to add anything worthwhile. Wins, on the other hand, are worthwhile. They need to give themselves the best chance to win each game.
  21. jorgenswest
    Isn't is awesome to be debating whether the Twins should have added a piece to piece in their push for the playoffs? Last summer the debate was whether to see off Dozier or Santana since it was inconceivable a team could go from 100 losses to contender in one season. This debate is much more enjoyable.
  22. jorgenswest
    I have been on the side arguing that the Twins were not a place free agent pitchers would want to land. Lots of pluses now. You get a young line up that will only get better. You get an outfield defense that might be the best in baseball. You get a good defensive catcher in Castro. You see the difference it has made for Colon. Why not drop your no trade if you are Verlander? Why not accept a competitive offer from the Twins if you are a free agent? It is the right time to be aggressive. Pitchers would be crazy not to listen.
  23. jorgenswest
    Very encouraging performance behind the plate. Liked the pitch mix and the relatively low pitch counts in spite of the 11 strike outs.
  24. jorgenswest
    I don't think we understand sample size in the same way. I don't think a sample was used to support a conclusion about Garver. For instance if you looked at brooks baseball and noticed 14 in zone pitches were turned into balls and only two out of zone pitches were turned into strike and then used that data to make a conclusion that Garver was a poor receiver, you would absolutely be misusing that data due to sample size. I didn't see any data used to support any conclusion here. Without data, where is the sample (small or not)? This wasn't about data or samples. This was about watching him catch. It is reasonable to observe that he wasn't good that day without making a conclusion about his career as a catcher. It is reasonable to wonder whether what we saw Saturday might hint at the Twins reluctance to use him right now over Gimenez.
  25. jorgenswest
    The Twins are contending so it is a bullpen of a contending team. Rosters expand in September. Expect a big bullpen and lots of pitching changes according to match ups next month. Maybe matching up by batter can make up for not acquiring Blake Wood.
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