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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    What is the objective measure for “not trying to win”?
  2. jorgenswest
    According to Forbes the Twins were 21st in revenue in 2017. I would guess a similar position this year.
  3. jorgenswest
    Mauer's number absolutely needs to be retired. I look forward to the ceremony. If the bar remains the same, I think the only possible next number is Joe Nathan. Relative to the era, it would be difficult to put Jim Kaat in before Brad Radke based on their performance as a Twin only. Santana and Pascual (with his WAS years) also have more WAR in the organization than Kaat but none of the three is very close to Radke. For hitters the next after Hrbek in terms of Twins WAR is Knoblauch and I don't think we will see Knoblauch's number retired. Allison is next and then there is a drop.
  4. jorgenswest
    If the Twins project Odorizzi to progress from a number 4 towards a number 3 extending him makes some sense. Even number 4 pitchers are very useful pieces. How important is it to have a core of veteran players locked up beyond 2019? I am not sure there is a great deal of value but I would rather pay for the rest of the prime in Odorizzi’s case rather than the decline of an older player into his 30s. Interesting thought.
  5. jorgenswest
    Next? I like the question though I want to find an objective way to comment. Radke has nearly as much baseball reference WAR as Blyleven in a Twins uniform. Knoblauch is even closer to Hrbek as a position player. Nathan is the reliever with the most WAR. Any new addition may be lowering the bar though I am not sure where the bar should be for Nathan other than he is clearly the best reliever to wear a Twins uniform. I wonder if anyone would stand out differently with Jay Jaffe’s JAWS. Do we consider the season in Senator uniforms for Kaat, Pascual and Allison? I don’t think they catch Radke or Knoblauch but it would be closer.
  6. jorgenswest
    Performance matters. I am certain I argued above that it does. Statistics in spring training do not give a reliable picture of performance. The sample is too small and varied. The only way to judge Buxton’s spring performance is to see him in every at bat and workout.
  7. jorgenswest
    I need help with any evidence where this has ever happened for any player on any team in any year since 1870 (the first reported spring training). Once we have found that cohort of players who went 0 for 50, let’s look at how they did during the regular season and measure the correlation. ... and yes we must rely heavily on the eyes of the Twins coaching staff.
  8. jorgenswest
    I agree with the healthy part. I don’t agree on making any decision based on measures that need a sample much greater than spring training to be reliable. Spring training can be performance based but the only possible judge of performance is the trained eyes of coaches watching every swing in practice and games. The result based statistics have absolutely no decision making value at that sample.
  9. jorgenswest
    Now we something to argue about... I have no doubts about Buxton’s work ethic or desire to be a great ball player. I do doubt his capability to be better than league average hitter to go with his elite defensive ability. If he is healthy and hits poorly in spring he is still my starting center fielder.
  10. jorgenswest
    “For the sake of...”. - out of respect or regard for It doesn’t seem like the premise has respect for argument. Shouldn’t the premise exist in the realm of reasonable possibilities?
  11. jorgenswest
    Buxton’s 2017 fWAR of 3.5/bWAR of 5.2 are more than sufficient to give a healthy Buxton the starting CF job for at least the first 6 weeks of 2019.
  12. jorgenswest
    According to roster resource Duffey has 1 option. https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-minnesota-twins/ I am not sure. He was optioned to start the 2016 season but return before the 20th day of the AAA season. He was optioned again at the end August. Maybe an option wasn’t used. If Duffey has an option he could be helpful as a shuttle from AAA to avoid the need for the 13th pitcher.
  13. jorgenswest
    As per the earlier conversation about the clubhouse... Dan Hays had an article in the Athletic last September where he a conversation with Kyle Gibson who said there were 10-15 players that were concerned about the Twins keeping Buxton down. I have no idea if that carries over to 2019 but it seems like losing the clubhouse over how an employee is treated is in the range of possibilities though on the remote side. I don’t think the Twins should dismiss the possibility that it is more than Buxton upset with decision.
  14. jorgenswest
    Fair enough although I believe I set the bars pretty low for 2019. Buyers are probably around .500 in July and Buxton was far above 2 WAR in 2017.
  15. jorgenswest
    I have no idea how the clubhouse will respond. I don't know how Buxton will respond. We won't be able to measure how this decision impacts the 2019 season. It is a critical year for Buxton and Falvey. If the Twins aren't buyers at the deadline, Falvey needs to be removed. If Buxton can't manage 2 WAR, the Twins need to look elsewhere for a CF.
  16. jorgenswest
    It could be the pivotal decision of this front office. I am going to assume that they had little hope of an extension after attempting negotiations last winter. It certainly wouldn't be a surprise that a talented player coming off a good season is advised not to engage in extension negotiations. Without question this decision did not sit well with anyone in the clubhouse. It could turn out that this season is rocky and they have difficulty with the roster. If it carries through to a poor season the Twins will need to clean out the front office. The additional year of service time will be to the benefit of the Twins and the next leadership. The safer short term decision would have been to call Buxton up September 1. Our leadership is in it for the long term. I hope they are right on this one.
  17. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the work. I was interested in his K/BB ratio splits in the minors. Going back three years there is not a significant difference in the splits like there is in Austin's major league numbers. 136/65 v right 65/30 v left With your prompting, I have more hope that Austin will hit right handed pitching much better than he has show the last three years in the majors.
  18. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the article. I trust the front office’s goal is a path of sustained success. To get there they definitely need to develop the talent of the 27 and below talent. It is year 3 now and this is their team and their manager. They need results this year. I would set the bar this year as buyers at the deadline. If they can’t make that bar, it is time to look elsewhere for leadership.
  19. jorgenswest
    The Tigers had a shortstop they wanted to trade at the deadline and couldn’t find a deal worth taking.
  20. jorgenswest
    My plan would be a 7 man bullpen with the last two spots dedicated to players on options that can shuttle if needed to AAA. Looking at the roster resource https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-minnesota-twins/ The Twins have Hildenberger, Moya, DeJong, Curtiss, Duffey, Vazquez and a bunch of AAA starters with options for those two spots. I was surprised by Duffey but maybe an option wasn’t used in 2016. He was recalled in April before that season was 20 days old. The Twins need to fill the top 5 spots adding two free agent relievers to May, Rogers and Reed. I am not sure Magill has the upside to roster without the flexibility of options. He certainly could open the season at the back end of the pen and then get DFA’d when a reliever is needed.
  21. jorgenswest
    Schoop has 4 WAR upside with a replacement level floor. Kinsler and Iglesias are projected by steamer at 1.7 WAR. They are probably within .7 of that number. I would bet on the upside.
  22. jorgenswest
    Did the negotiations for an extension last winter leave the Twins believing that Buxton and agent had no interest in a deal? Should that matter? If the agent showed no interest in talking last winter, the Twins options didn’t look very good. Call him up to keep peace and lose the potential of a 4 WAR year down the road. Keep him down and damage their relationship with not only Buxton but also the fan base. This was a no win situation for the front office. In retrospect I think they made the tougher call. It would have been easier for them to keep the peace now. Instead they bought 2022 Buxton even though they may not be around to see any fruits of the decision.
  23. jorgenswest
    Do you cut a guy who might be your best bat against a left handed pitcher? Is that bat more valuable than a 13th pitcher?
  24. jorgenswest
    I don’t think that minor league OPS data particularly when not normed would not be very reliable. The strike out and walk rate splits would tell a much better story. Did you look at those? If the more recent minor league K/BB splits are similar I would have more confidence in his ability to hit major league right handed pitching.
  25. jorgenswest
    By WOBA Tyler Austin is Goldschmidt against lefties and LaMarre against righties. I hope the Twins can find a way to keep him as that 13th bat and start him against every lefty. He also is a good option on the bench to come in against that left handed reliever or the threat keeps that reliever in the pen. In order to have 12 pitchers they need the back two in the pen with options matched with a few in AAA. Hildenberger is on my planned shuttle. A rule 5 guy is not in the plan.
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