jorgenswest

One of the reasons to wait on service time is so that you don't have prospects passing these deadlines on the DL. Most of Mauer's first year was spent on the DL gaining service time. Had the Twins waited to begin Mauer's service time, they would have negotiated with him after a good 2010 season as opposed to an out of this world 2009 season. He would have been a year older and the contract would likely have been smaller and shorter term.

I hope we are concerned about losing a guy who has posted an OPS of 807 against right handed pitching. He has 30 career home runs in 513 at bats. Do the Twins have any other OF that comes close to matching that production against right handed pitchers over the last three years? He did this at a young age and does not need to be a late bloomer. He just needs to continue and be used in a platoon role by the Twins. We should be worried about his performance following his hip injury. The return that may have been too soon had to have messed up his timing. This year might be lost, but he has to be in the plan to start in RF against right handed pitching next year.

They called him up in June after they believed the super 2 cut off had passed. They can't get an extra year of service time unless they had started him in AAA next season. I am not sure how the additional service time is a real negative. It doesn't help him towards super 2 status and waiting until next May for him to make his debut isn't reasonable. I guess if he struggles for multiple years like Hicks and Arcia and needs the options then it might matter. They don't need to use an option this year though. If he does struggle, the real negative will be his performance and not the service time. Am I correct in stating that if he starts on the roster opening day 2016 the service time on the DL will not have enabled him to become a free agent a year earlier or allowed him arbitration a year earlier?

MLB pipeline has him at 20 so that is one very large border. Hu throws 90-92 now. A pitcher's velocity peaks in early 20s and is very unlikely to go up and will be in slow decline. A right handed pitcher with his velocity is going to need some terrific secondary pitches. He gets A ball hitters out with his palm ball. While it works well in A-Ball scouts question whether it will continue to be effective as he approaches the majors. I would have traded Hu before any of the other 19 players listed before him in the MLB pipeline. He has a chance to be a back end of the rotation starter or reliever. That chance gave him enough value to get a major league reliever who has done a better job of getting right handed batters out than anyone else in their bullpen.

Do we all realize that a half season of numbers from a reliever isn't enough to consider ERA, FIP, xFIP and other ERA predictors? Using them to support an argument about who will be better in the second half creates an empty argument. Only the eyes of a skilled human can discern the pitcher with more value. Over the last three years Jepsen has been extremely good against right handed batters. The Twins need to utilize this skill. He is the best option to get a right handed batter out in the 7th or 8th innings. The Blue Jays and Angels are loaded with right handed batters in the middle of their lineups. It would be a mistake to see him as an 8th inning guy without regard to who will be batting. This is the first year since 2010 where he has faced more left handed batters than right handed batters. I hope the Twins reverse that trend.

I agree about not bringing Hunter back. I think any trade of Nolasco will include cash to cover most of his salary. Trading him won't free up money as they will still be paying for him. It will open a spot in the starting rotation. Berrios and May need to be part of that rotation. They might be wise to start Graham in AAA in the rotation. The bench probably does not work. No one has options when a 13th pitcher is needed. Does Nunez hit well enough to be carried on the roster without a position? The numbers are good this year but the sample is small and it may not be a skill change. It is more likely variation due to sample. They might let him go. I think they will have also DFA'd Danny Santana and Josmil Pinto due to options since they are not rostered.

The Twins might have been able to get Broxton for Amaurys Minier though Collymore has better career numbers on a similar career path. They might have needed to up the cash. Minier and Collymore are a long way from the majors but they are not nothing.

I gues you could look at the guys who moved and look for a comp in the Twins system. Maybe they could have won the Clippard deal by sending Gonsalves and Tapia for example. If a guy didn't move I am going to believe that the asking price was so high no team would deal whether it be today or the all star break.

The price for Jepsen was reasonable. The Twins had to give up something. The Twins see Toronto in a big series next week. Jepsen becomes their best late inning weapon to face the right handed bats of Batista, Encarnacion, Tulowitzki and Donaldson.

It is reasonable that Arcia will be playing for someone next year and put up 25 home runs. I hope it is the Twins in RF.

Nolasco has negative value. If adding him to a trade also means adding more prospects, I would rather keep him and increase payroll.

They might try to get the Braves to include Graham in a deal with Pierzynski. It would enable the Twins to add an arm in the pen and give Graham some AAA starts.

Reyes is now what we were concerned Tulowitzki would be in two years. His defense is below average. His bat is weaker and void against lefties this year. He might be a slight upgrade this year but will be a huge deficit going forward. He might be worth a win though and that win could be the difference between being the road team in a wild card play in game and sitting on the outside. The Twins would have to plan to move him to LF for the future though. The only deal I would consider is Mauer for Reyes. The Twins could play Reyes at SS this year and replace Mauer in the lineup with Arcia or Kepler or a rental bat.

Is the choice punt 2015 or punt 2017 and beyond? I don't see why those need to be the choices. Is it Tulo or nothing? Someone will be foolish enough to take Tulowitzki's contract. It could be the Twins. In 2017 the Twins can have platoon of Tulo and Mauer at 1B and a trio of number 5 starters to the tune of around 100 million for the 5. Makes sense to me. I'm in.

I was at the game. Your description in no way fits what I saw. Perhaps you were at the game also and saw it different. I don't see how anyone could see range and movement on TV.

You can't use WAR that way. Escobar gets a huge deduction for starting games in LF. He is getting compared to the bat of a replacement level LF. You need to look at the splits and probably need to use last year also to get enough fielding data. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2015&month=38&season1=2015&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Escobar's WAR as a SS is 0.5 (positive) in just 69 PA! Tulowitzki is 1.7 as a SS in 322 PA. The Twins are getting the median production from their shortstop position this year and that production is being pulled down by Danny Santana. They can fix the position by playing Escobar and Nunez (using Nunez when they throw a fly ball pitcher)

There is reason to be excited about the Twins as they move towards 2017. By then key young players will have hundreds of games under their belts. They could really mess that up committing to Tulowitzki. Look at his defensive metrics. You may not buy the metric in terms of how it equates to runs but you can see the steady decline since his rookie year. This year he is below average. By 2017 or possibly earlier he won't be a shortstop. Where are they going to play him and his big contract. He could easily join Joe Mauer making 20 million for ordinary offense from a corner position. They will also still have the burden of Hughes, Santana and Nolasco's contracts and performance from them that might equate to a fifth starter or worse. At the same time they have key young players entering their prime, they will have huge commitments to decline phase players handcuffing the front office and ensuring the team will be mediocre. The Rockies need to find a team foolish enough to take this contract. I hope it isn't the Twins.

The Twins are getting league average SS play when looking at the offensive splits. According to OPS, they were 13 at the all star break and 15 today as many are lumped in the middle.The average SS line has an OPS of .657. The Twins split at SS is .656 that includes Danny Santana's 547. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=38&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=9,d Clearly Molitor believes Santana is better than that. If at some point he stops believing, he has options on his bench that will provide a better than league average SS bat. While SS gets the focus here due to Santana, the production has been OK compared to the league. The same can not be said about LF, CF, DH and 1B. Their production at those positions is clearly below the median. They have a solution at DH. The CF production will be better without Schafer. LF is better when they aren't playing shortstops out there. Perhaps biggest need #1b is 1B.

I took a stab a month ago http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6647-looking-at-the-40-man-roster/

Oakland will do better. Zobrist will get a qualifying offer and result in a comp pick and the associated draft dollars. Oakland would need to see the deal as losing Zobrist, Clippard and a comp pick to get a young SS that may not be able to stay at the position and weaker minor league credentials than the guy they have and two relievers. I don't think Beane sees much value in relievers. I think he will get starting pitching prospects as a result of moving those two. While the trade is fair on paper, the trade deadline is a sellers market. It isn't enough to the seller to simply win-win. Edit: Tonkin probably adds no value to the A's. He will be out of options and the A's have no opportunity to develop him. If the Twins don't value him this year, why would another team see value? They just need to wait until he is DFA'd next spring.

Adding Arcia will guarantee that a corner player is on the bench and available to pinch hit every game. I think that brings more value than Robinson.

I hope the Twins haven't placed their bets yet. He is way too young. They need to find 150 plate at bats for him in the second half.

How do the Twins perform on the corners compared to other team in the AL Central? Previous: Up the Middle First Base (ranked by wRC+) Tigers (1st) 176 Sox (2nd) 129 Royals (8th) 118 Indians(10th) 110 Twins (11th) 98 Cabrera is a monster. Abreau is very good. Santana will be better. I think Mauer can close the gap and approach Hosmer’s production in the second half. It is hard to imagine the Twins climbing out of fifth at 1B though. They really need Mauer to be a league average 1B. can he approach a 115-120 wRC+ in the second half? He hasn’t been there since 2013. On the farm: Vargas is back in AA trying to cut down his chase rate. If Mauer is injured it would likely be Sano or Plouffe that fill in at this point. Thirdbase Royals (3rd) 119 Twins (4th) 115 Tigers (13th) 76 Indians(14th) 75 Sox(15th) 75 Defensively: Royals(5th), Twins(7), Indians(9), Tigers(10), White Sox (13) Plouffe has turned out to be a very solid player. He and Dozier are fruits of a bad team that gave them plenty of at bats before they started making consistent contributions to the team. Moustakas is better and needed an even longer stretch before contributing. On the farm: Sano was just called up. The Twins need both Sano and Plouffe in the line up. Jose Martinez play 3B for Rochester. Left Field Royals (2nd) 127 Indians (3rd) 124 Tigers (4th) 117 Twins (10th) 85 Sox(14th) 73 Defensively: Royals(1), Tigers(6), Twins(9), White Sox(10), Indians (11) Rosario just surpassed Escobar in plate appearances by a Twin left fielder. Rosario’s performance would put the Twins a couple of slots up and near league average. He also boosts them defensively over the utility infielders and Arcia. The Twins can expect an improvement from this position in the second half of the season. There is still a significant gap to the production of Gordon, Brantley and Cespedes though. On the farm: Kepler is in AA and may get a shot. Walker continues to produce but isn’t on the 40. Arcia is heating up in AAA. Right Field Tigers(1) 153 Indians(9) 107 Twins(10) 103 Sox(12) 94 Royals(15) 50 Defensively: Royals(2), Tigers(5), Twins(9), Indians(10), White Sox(15) J.D. Martinez was a waiver claim at the same time the Twins were counting on Bartlett and Kubel. Hunter has performed just below league average in the field and at the plate. Can he keep going? It is hard to imagine that he will improve in the second half. Royals should close the gap with a healthy Rios. On the farm: Arcia could make a difference. He might help the Twins improve their overall production in RF if used well. A rested Hunter may perform better. I am not suggesting an all out platoon, but I do think Molitor can find a spot twice a week where Arcia can help. Harrison is doing well in AA. Designated Hitter Royals(5th) 122 Indians(8th) 113 Sox(10th) 97 Twins(13th) 89 Tigers(15th) 77 A healthy Martinez may flip the Tigers from last to first in DH production. Sano can make a huge impact for the Twins. Morales may regress. This is one area where AL Central teams can close the gap. Twins Outlook The Twins need to maintain their production from at 3B and RF. They really can’t expect better unless strategic use of Arcia inches them up the RF ranks. They can expect regular use of Rosario and Sano to improve production in LF and DH. They need Mauer to close the gap at 1B also. A 120 wRC+ is reasonable and his production could be the key to the Twins chances in the second half. Sano’s production in July can save the Twins from trading a prospect for a temporary solution at DH.

How does the Twins performance up the middle compare to the other teams of the AL Central? With the help of fangraphs, here is how the AL Central teams performed up the middle. Catcher (Ranked by wRC+) Tigers (4th) 100 Royals (7th) 87 Indians (8th) 86 White Sox (9th) 80 Twins (13th) 56 For fear of long discussion about WAR, I will leave it out. For the other positions, I will put some defensive rankings. We could start a thread and argue about catcher defense and framing also. I will state without numbers that the Royals and Indians get more help defensive from their catchers than the Tigers and Twins. The White Sox are probably below them The Indians lost Yan Gomes for much of the first half. His return should improve their performance at catcher. Avila’s return should improve the Tigers. It is hard to imagine that Suzuki will improve given his workload. On the farm: Josmil Pinto is suffering from concussions. Eric Fryer had a good half season with the bat that is out of line with several years of previous performance. Stuart Turner is a good defender and might project towards a Drew Butera type career. That isn't a knock. Truly good defensive catchers that can handle a pitching staff are not easy to find and not in abundance in AAA. Secondbase Indians (1st) 156 Twins (2nd) 132 Tigers (7th) 93 Royals (14th) 49 White Sox(15th) 27 Defensively the Royals are first followed by Tigers(3), Indians(7), White Sox(10) and Twins(11). I think that Dozier is a good defensive 2B. The other guys are also. I don’t think the difference between Dozier and Infante is very significant. This looks to be a position that the Royals will get an upgrade in the second half. It is very unlikely that their second basement will have an OBP of 240 even if they remain the same. The Indians and Twins have elite players that should continue to play well. On the farm: Beresford, Bernier and Polanco are all in AAA. None is Dozier of course, but all could do a respectable job as a utility player short term. Polanco has upside of a starter Shortstop Tigers (2nd) 113 Twins (6th) 84 Royals (9th) 82 Indians(14th) 45 Sox(15th) 38 Defensively, Tigers (1st), Royals (7), White Sox(11), Twins (12) and Indians (13) I think both the Twins and Indians improve. Lindor is an upgrade. The Twins have a lot of innings of very shaky performance from Santana. Escobar and Nunez show better than league average SS bats and are getting a better percentage of the playing time. If Santana plays it is because he has improved. Unbelievable all star level play from Iglesias thus far, but I think he will regress some. Ramirez will be better for the White Sox. Centerfield Royals (2nd) 130 Tigers (8th) 104 Sox (11th) 88 Indians(12th) 81 Twins(15th) 60 Defensively, the Royals (1st) are kings followed by Twins (8th), Tigers (11th), Indians(14th) and White Sox(15th). The Twins numbers are dragged down by Schafer. Hicks and Buxton should improve. Rosario looked respectable as a fall back option. Cain is elite and the Twins can't close this gap entirely in 2015. They can gain ground towards league average contribution. On the farm: Hicks, Buxton and Rosario were all in the minors to start the season. Farris and Ortiz now play CF in AAA. Niko Goodrum started in CF the first two weeks after Buxton was called up but it has been Kepler in the last week. Twins Outlook Without a trade, I expect better performance centerfield in the second half. I think the performance at shortstop will also improve and it is already league average. The Twins can’t afford an injury to Dozier and his elite level play. He should continue to perform well. Catcher is the black hole. Suzuki’s performance dropped last year with the heavy workload. It has nowhere to drop this year in the second half. Up the middle, it is the one position where a trade can have a significant impact. Next: On the Corners

Arcia should be viewed as their best solution for RF next year. Kepler and Walker haven't played this level. Sano barely has played and never in the OF. They need to let go of Torii before his numbers collapse. I would trade him for someone who is their best solution at catcher next year, but most teams don't want to trade up the middle guys for corner guys.