jorgenswest

At this point, players can not be evaluated based on stats. Whether some is tearing it up or struggling, the stats don't show it. Someone watching the Twins or Red Wing games can assess the approach at the plate and the quality of each at bat. They can assess the quality of contact. They can assess the defense in the outfield. Around 120 plate appearances strike out rate, walk rate, groundball rate and fly ball rate become useful in assessing full time players. Until then the only way to assess the players is to see them in the ballpark every game. A skilled eye can see a change in ability or talent in a much smaller sample. It is those trained eyes in Rochester and Minnesota that the Twins must rely on to make the decision on Hicks, Rosario and Schafer.

Oravetz returned to the Twins organization after playing for the Senators and Mets organizations in 1962. At 5'4" and 145 it must have been a continual battle to remain a professional ball player.

Reading the article on the first big Twin trade, helped me recall the first three Minnesota Twin trades that were minor on the field yet involving three legends. Ernie Oravetz was traded for Ed Palmquist and Joe Altobelli. All three were career minor leaguers and Palmquist and Altobelli did play some for the Twins after they acquired them. Altobelli managed in the major leagues for the Giants, Orioles and Cubs. He won a World Series for the Orioles. People in Rochester know him as Mr. Baseball. Following his season with the Twins he played in Rochester in 1962. He has also served as coach, manager, general manager and broadcaster. http://m.milb.com/ne...14090192377228/ The franchises second trade also involved a World Series winning manager. The Twins traded Billy Consolo for Billy Martin. Martin retired from baseball after 1961 and stayed in the organization as a scout, third base coach, AAA manager and finally manager in 1969. He was part of the Twins first two playoff teams in 1965 and 1969. I believe the stretch from 1961-69 was his longest continual stretch with any organization. It lasted until he knocked out Dave Boswell with punches in the alley behind the Lindell A.C. bar. On the same day as the Martin trade, the Twins traded Paul Giel and Reno Bertoia for Bill Tuttle and a player to be named later. Nine days later the player to be named later was one of the original players in the trade - Paul Giel. Paul did not want to leave Minnesota and after one start with his new club he retired from baseball. Giel, born in Winona, was a football and baseball star for the Gophers in the early 50s and runner up for the Heisman in 1953. After his return to the Twins and retirement, he was the Vikings announcer from 1962-1969 and University of Minnesota Athletic Director from 1971-1989. The Twins didn't see much on the playing field from Altobelli, Martin and Giel but all three stepped out into significant careers following their last games as a major leaguer and Twin in 1961.

There were three Twins trades in the 1961. None of them had the impact on the playing field but all involved players whose would go on to very significant careers. Ernie Oravetz was traded for Ed Palmquist and Joe Altobelli. All three were career minor leaguers and Palmquist and Altobelli did play some for the Twins after they acquired them. Altobelli managed in the major leagues for the Giants, Orioles and Cubs. He won a World Series for the Orioles. People in Rochester know him as Mr. Baseball. Following his season with the Twins he played in Rochester in 1962. He has also served as coach, manager, general manager and broadcaster. http://m.milb.com/news/article/2014090192377228/ The franchises second trade also involved a World Series winning manager. The Twins traded Billy Consolo for Billy Martin. Martin retired from baseball after 1961 and stayed in the organization as a scout, third base coach, AAA manager and finally manager in 1969. He was part of the Twins first two playoff teams in 1965 and 1969. I believe the stretch from 1961-69 was his longest continual stretch with any organization. It lasted until he knocked out Dave Boswell with punches in the alley behind the Lindell A.C. bar. On the same day as the Martin trade, the Twins traded Paul Giel and Reno Bertoia for Bill Tuttle and a player to be named later. Nine days later the player to be named later was one of the original players in the trade - Paul Giel. Paul did not want to leave Minnesota and after one start with his new club he retired from baseball. Giel was a football and baseball star for the Gophers in the early 50s and runner up for the Heisman in 1953. After his return to the Twins and retirement, he was the Vikings announcer from 1962-1969 and University of Minnesota Athletic Director from 1971-1989. The Twins didn't see much on the playing field from Altobelli, Martin and Giel but all three stepped out into significant careers following their last games as a Major Leaguer in 1961.

I was more hopeful until I was reminded of the 87 and 91 teams. On the 1987 team, all of the starting position players were in their 20s. Each one of them could be expected to improve along the aging curve. Add to that Viola who was entering his age 27 season and their was a lot of reason for hope among the young players. Only one guy in the 1991 rotation was over 27. The starters were like Kyle Gibson where there was hope of a step forward because of their age. They were willing to bring up opening day their best prospect at age 22 with very little time in the minors. There is hope in that youth. I have hope for Kyle Gibson and that he will take a step forward. I have hope in Dozier, Escobar, Santana and Vargas that they will continue their growth. Is that foundation for enough hope? Not when you compare it to the upside on the 87 and 91 teams.

Mike Pelfrey chose the more difficult path of battling back from a torn UCL. Coming back from Tommy John and then losing another year to injury and fighting back again. It is time to get behind the guy who is fighting back to save his career without the help of steroids.

Every year I use BR play index and select the top 150 pitcher by starts. One of the sidetracks in the article below has that info. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6349-what-can-the-twins-expect-from-santana-and-nolasco/ Last year the median starter was 100, but sometimes it is 99 or 98 because of relievers. The 90th rank had an ERA+ of 95 last year. Santana would have in the midst of the number 4 starters. Like Correia, his ability to stay healthy gives him a boost in value but not in performance. The team just get more starts at that level. Three years ago he was near the bottom of the 150. Two years ago he was a number 2 likely with help of the Royals league best defense. With the Twins defense and park, an ERA mid 4s should be expected this year with decline if the defense does not improve. That is a loss, but not a catastrophic loss. It will be catastrophic if his decline accelerates without steroids and the Twins stubbornly keep him on the roster and don't look for a better solution.

I am not sure why they paid a 32 year old pitcher coming off a season with a 92+ ERA tens of millions. It does not really matter how much he is paid. It doesn't change his projections. He was projected for 0.7 WAR by ZIPS and 1.5 by steamer. Cut that in half. The new fifth starter is taking his starts. If you don't want to call him the fifth starter call him something else. If the starters replacing him are replacement level, the cost in wins will be minimal because Santana skill level starts below league average. Assuming the starts are below replacement level, the cost might be two wins. If you are going to win 72 games, you might chose to risk winning 65 by going young and developing that talent rather than buying decline phase talent to get to 72. That would be floating a rotation of team control guys like Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, May, Milone, Berrios...

Pelfrey has battled back through two very difficult injuries. He has an opportunity that may be his last. The Twins need some good stories this year. I am hoping his hard work to battle through injuries towards a successful season is one of those good stories. Go Pelf!

If the fifth starter can pitch at replacement level, it probably has the cost of 1 win. Twin fifth starters haven't been that successful so maybe it will be two wins. That might be critical to a team fighting for the wild card but it doesn't change the 2015 outlook for the Twins.

One was a 20 year old kid in rookie ball. The other is a 10 year major league veteran with a salary that will set him up for life many times over. He was brought in to be a leader on the team. Neal Allen talked about his mentoring Berrios and they purposely paired them in the same game. He is role model for children in his country. His response about not knowing he had an old school steroid in his body is impossible to believe. This is something that is taken daily and methodically.

Pelfrey has worked hard to come back through two difficult injuries. He has done so without the apparent help of PEDs. I look forward to seeing him pitch and hope he has a career year. I really hope that whichever 5 starters the Twins have in the rotation when Santana is eligible return are doing a respectable enough job to keep him out of the rotation.

ZIPs projected Santana at 9-11 with a 4.64 ERA and 0.7 WAR. Steamer was more favorable at 11-13 and 4.36 for 1.5 WAR. Cut either in half. How will the Twins fans accept him at half that performance? Decline it over three more years. They will be lucky to get 3-4 WAR out of him over the course of the contract. Santana doesn't lose much here. He still gets almost 50 million. The Twins lose what would very likely be his best season as a Twin and pay big for the decline. I don't think the Twins make the playoffs until he is gone.

I generally agree. However, I think Pinto's bat is needed on the bench and then it comes down to a choice of Nunez and Herrmann. Nunez doesn't offer anything on the bench. Molitor said he doesn't see him in the outfield. The Yankees dropped him because he couldnt handle 2B. His only real position is 3B. Escobar is the better utility option defensively and overall. He needs to be in the lineup every opportunity. Any Nunez gets takes away from him. Pinto is the better right handed bench bat. Robinson runs well. It seems like Herrmann and his ability to catch and play the outfield and first helps more. He also can shuttle back and forth when the need for the 13th pitcher surfaces. Ultimately it could be neither if both Hicks and Rosario do well.

I write about the 4 year outlook for Santana a while back. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6349-what-can-the-twins-expect-from-santana-and-nolasco/ The Twins really needed to bank on his first two years. He looked to decline to a number 5 starter or worse the last two years. That was assuming he wasn't helped by steroids. If the evidence is there and confirmed, release him. Do it today.

The Twins need to release him today. He was a number 4 starter using steroids. Off the steroids he will decline fast. He is of no use to the Twins. He has no trade value. They are not going to sell more tickets in games he starts. He just takes a spot that needs to go to the future. Maybe this will stop Terry from bringing in veterans to be role models and mentors. .

I found some comps of players with a similar age and performance through age 28 while thinking about Schafer last fall. Not too many Brady Andersons. In fact only one. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6225-jordan-schafer-breakout-or-bust/

I agree. He is the kind of player that teams projected for 90 losses should give two months. If he looks OK as hid did last summer, give him another two months.

His other two years of more than semi regular play he put up an OPS of just under 600. Steamer and ZIPs projection fall on both sides of 600. This is probably his peak season and the Twins play in a park that boosts offense so maybe a really optimistic OPS is 630. In a strict platoon maybe he can approach 700. If he is in the low 600s on June 1, I hope the Twins will look elsewhere. ZIPs and Steamer like Gose much better than Schafer. His CF metrics are better. He is at a age and experience level in his career where a jump up is much more likely. It is really hard to buy an argument that Schafer will outperform him with the bat or the glove. If the White Sox offered Gose for Schafer, the Twins should take it and run.

Seems like they could have began Pelfrey's transition much earlier. Now we have a long reliever that can't come in the middle of an inning until he is comfortable. Let's start the year with that additional burden on the rest of the bullpen. Isn't a long man almost always needed mid inning? I guess they could use him as an 8th inning guy who less often is needed to come in and put out a fire. This could have been foreseen. It is well known that Pelfrey's performance drops off with runners on base. It is also know that he has a long warm up routine.

I think a team projected for 90 losses should be searching the waivers for guys like Felix Dubront to pitch the low leverage innings rather than decline phase veterans that will not be part of the solution. If Stauffer or Boyer don't have the talent to be late inning guys, they should not have a place on this roster.

They needed to go with young arms and let them grow. They would rather rid the certain mediocrity (or worse) from a veteran than give a long look to a young bullpen arm. They need to invest in that upside instead of continuing to cycle through cheap veterans. The old way of building a bullpen hasn't worked since his return. The bullpens of 2012-2014 were among the worst in baseball. At some point we have to stop thinking that Ryan has the ability to put together a good bullpen on the cheap.

The Twins might find better solutions than Nunez and Robinson among those DFA'd. Sounds like Nunez doesn't have the ability to defend anywhere. The Yankees came to that conclusion a year ago. If he is only a bat, wouldn't there be better options among those DFA'd? Maybe the Twins can hit on a Sam Fuld type for the fourth OF again. They should be looking for bullpen upgrades among the DFA's also.

How about strike outs instead of xFIP? Let's just look at inning 7-9 and throw out the middle relievers coming in after those short starts. The Twins late inning relievers were 30th last year and it was even close. Even an improvement of 10% from 321 to 353 would keep them with a rank of 30. They ranked 19th in 2013 and 30th in 2012. The bullpen Ryan built for the team last year performed among the league's worst if not the worst. That includes the performance of the late inning guys. They performed poorly last year. They haven't performed well since Ryan returned. Maybe it is not possible to cobble together a cheap bullpen in the current era that Ryan has reentered. Maybe good bullpens are built on strong young arms rather than cast off veterans.

Since his return Ryan's bullpens have ranked 28th, 24th and 29th according to xFIP. While cheap, they haven't been quality.