Elliot

I agree with the "prove it year" concept for Wallner. Early in his career Tom Brunansky had a similar type of year. His 71 point higher OPS than Wallner's is almost exactly the difference in batting average (.272 to .202). Very reflective of the feast or famine type of approach today vs the the 80's approach that favored an occassinal base hit in a timely manner. Wallner gets alot of walks, but it wouldn't hurt him to learn to make a ittle more contact. Matt Wallner 2025 - 22 HR 40 RBI .775 OPS in his 4th year, 3rd full year Tom Brunansky 1982 20 HR 46 RBI .846 OPS in his 2nd year, first full year The same " prove it year comment" could be made for Lewis, Lee, Larnach, Clemens, Jullien, Martin, ... Unfortunately, they have a large number of everyday players who have undeperformed when compared to reasonable expectations. The real question is going to be the decision to part ways with some of these palyers when they are at a low point in trade value, or give them one more "prove it year" while blocking young players such as Jenkins, Rodriguez, and Gonzalez. Falvey and co. will be second guessed no matter what route they take.

An overlooked aspect of developing players is the defensive side. To me, the biggest mistake of the current Twins FO and player development, is not finding a defensive home for young prospects early enough. The end result is that they are constantly being moved around and asked to learn new positions, often at the major league level. I have to believe that screws with their minds and impacts the offensive side of their game. If I had a major complaint with Rocco it would be his messing with positions and batting orders to the detriment of young players. The 40 man roster currently includes 7 players listed as infielders: Kody Clemens, Ryan Fitzgerald, Mickey Gasper, Edouard Julien, Luke Keaschall, Brooks Lee, and Royce Lewis. I challenge anyone to tell me what position they should be playing at the major league level. Lewis seems to be settling in at 3rd base, but he came up playing SS and CF. It wasn’t that long ago that they were attempting to move him to 2B. None of the others have demonstrated that they are even average defensively at any infield position. For the moment, Lee seems set at SS, but that is only by default since no one else can play there. A team only needs one, maybe two utility players. Willi Castro filled an important role with the Twins in that he could adequately play a number of positions. However; the defensive bar for a utility guy is different than that for an everyday player. Castro was quickly exposed when forced to play as a regular for extended periods. Austin Martin is that guy. Lee may be that guy. Maybe even Clemens. OK, not embarrassing, at a number of spots, but not really adequate at any position long term. I am sure the FO is eagerly awaiting my considerable expertise on player development, so here it is. Quit trying to develop a full roster of utility players. Tell Royce Lewis that he is the starting 3rd baseman unless injured. As an old guy I recall Koskie, Gaetti, and even Rich Rollins as players that took less than stellar athleticism and turned it into at least average or a bit better defensive skills. Lewis is far more athletic than any of those 3. Make it clear to Lee that he is not an everyday SS on a winning team. I was a big Lee fan, but having watched him for a year I am worried that he will never be able to make things work unless he gets his head straightened out. If he remains at SS, it should only be to try to increase his trade value to some oblivious team. I believe he has indicated his reluctance to play 2B, which may be fine as his lack of speed and agility may make him a third, or even first baseman. If so, he better get it going at the plate. Figure out a spot for Keaschall now so that he can spend winter and spring acclimating himself since he will almost certainly break camp with the team next year. When he does he should know definitely what his spot is. I am thinking LF. Make every effort to break camp with either Kaelen Culpepper or Marek Houston at short. Tell them their responsibility is to play above average defensive SS; don’t worry about offense. Bat ninth and learn while providing what the team needs most: defense at SS. The Twins have chosen a lot of SS’s high in recent drafts. Taking good athletes is a good approach. The problem has been the philosophy of leaving them at SS until they prove they absolutely cannot handle it at the MLB level. By that time they are at AAA or even MLB and have wasted a number of years in which they could have been honing their skills at another defensive spot (maybe Clupepper). It shouldn’t take player development personnel long to see if someone has the chops to play SS in the big leagues (definitely Houston). If there is offensive upside, get them to their best defensive position early. I love that they did that with Kyle Debarge. (end result – gold glove at 2B). If they do not have a lot of offensive upside, then develop them as a utility player. There is always need for someone to fill in at SS short term while also providing backup at other positions. NOTE – I am interested to see if the Twins make a run at the Player Promotion Incentive with Jenkins, Culpepper, or any other young player in the top 100. They could always use another high draft pick to use on a SS.

There is also the “manager in waiting” aspect to consider. I think Shelton is a fine choice, but whoever got the job was probably aware that they are being set up to fail. Two years from now, when the next “core” is settling in, the Twins will be ready for a new manager following a couple of tough years. I don’t know if Hawkins has managerial aspirations, but getting a couple of years dugout experience would be good for him, and the future decision makers.

Semantics. Maybe he transitioned in Spring Training. Maybe it was an overnight decision by the FO or manager. The point I was trying to make was that he was a starter in the minors, but never started a game in the majors. The others, regardless of age, had the opoortunity to succeed or fail as starters at the major league level. Duran has been a good bullpen weapon for the Twins, and now the Phillies. The legitimate question that remains is whether or not the Twins pulled the trigger too soon on making the move to the pen. With a little more patience would they have had a staff ace, or at least a front of the rotation starter for years., a much higher value asset than a bullpen arm, no matter how good.. Or maybe the managerial/training staff saw something in his style and delivery and the early move was made to save his arm and actually gave him a career. (As a side note, would an early move to the pen have saved Francisco Liriano and his violent delivery from his eventual arm issues?) Then there is the question of the mental makeup of the individual. Are they equipped for the back end of the bullpen. It is starting to sound like at the end, or maybe all along, Jax struggled a bit with this aspect. Varland simply wanted to be a starter. Can't blame him for that. It is a complicated set of questions for each individual. Mix multiple individuals into the equation and it gets even more interesting. All I am saying is give it time; let it play out for each individual and the group as a whole.

Patience, patience, patience The biggest mistake is to give up on a young starter before they have really shown what they can become. Frank Viola is a good example. Going into 1984, his 3rd year in the bigs, he had a career record of 11-25, with an ERA over 5.50, a WHIP of 1.55, and was giving up 1.5 HR’s per 9. It may have made sense to push him to the pen after that kind of a start to his career. However; 1984 turned things around and started an amazing run of 250 inning seasons and an eventual Cy Young as a starter. It was mentioned that all of the relievers traded had started out as starters, but failed. That is essentially true for all relievers. The main difference is the level of failure, and when it occurs. If they transition in AA or AAA, we tend to think of them as always being relievers. It is those that break into the majors as starters that we have this discussion over. That’s where the comparison of the 5 gets interesting. It looks like Stewart and Coulombe both started with the Dodgers, bounced around a bit, (Stewart was even out of pro ball for a stretch) and then were resurrected by the Twins. Jax and Varland both were developed by the Twins and struggled as starters. They had seen enough of starter Jax in one season and transitioned him full time to the pen in his second year, sort of as a last ditch effort. Varland was a starter for parts of three years (2022, 23, and 24) in the majors, showing flashes of success. Short stints in the pen showed potential of a high-end reliever, but it seemed that Varland wanted to continue starting. 2025 was the first year Varland was strictly a reliever. Duran is the exception. He never started a game in the majors. He was transitioned to the pen in his final minor league season and has been there since. Each of the 5 took a different path. That will probably be the case with the next wave as well. The group of young starters laid out in the article (Festa, SWR, Matthews, Bradley) are a ways into the progression. Abel, Adams, Morris, Ohl, Raya, Prielipp, and probably a few I have missed are just getting started. Decisions will be made based on performance. As has been pointed out by a number of commenters, you don’t really need a playoff caliber BP if you don’t have a team that can get to the playoffs. If by chance, the offense comes together quicker and there looks like playoff potential next year, a quicker decision may need to be made. A few of the above names will likely start 2026 in the pen, but the majority will be starting at either St Paul or Minneapolis. It is fun to anticipate and predict how this may play out over the next few years, but until the decisions need to be made, just relax and enjoy the process,

Just a thought to add to this discussion. Johan Duran, the established stud player, was a trade deadline prospect the Twins received for Eduardo Escobar in 2018. That makes the talk about prospects acquired at the deadline for an established player never working out seem a little weak.

I am always fascinated by middle infield prospects. Who can stick at SS and who can’t? Much like catcher, I have always leaned toward defense first. If they can field at an above average level, it doesn’t matter if they can hit. Christian Vasquez has demonstrated that throughout his career as a C. Ozzie Smith and Andrelton Simmons are the two SS examples that come to mind. Although they had seasons where they hit well, their calling card was always defense. There are limits however. The Twins had a AAA SS back in the 2010’s. I think his name was Vielma. I remember reading a spring training report where the writer talked about watching the SS group work out. Vielma was so far above them in fielding skills it was almost comical to watch the other prospects try to keep up with him defensively in drills. However; he could not hit at all. I don’t think he ever reached the majors. The caveat in this is that it is tough to predict how players develop as their bodies change. I remember when the Twins signed both Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco as SS’s at ages 16 or 17. The general consensus was that Sano would outgrow SS. The reality was that he outgrew everywhere but DH. The reports on Polanco were that he was ready to play major league level defense the day they signed him, but there were questions if he would ever hit enough. That assessment turned out to be a little backwards. Fortunately, the three main players under consideration for the Twins in 2026 are all college players in their early 20’s and have matured physically. I am not looking for the next Ozzie Smith for the Twins. I am also not encouraging going with the second coming of Engelb Vielma. What I do suggest is that the Twins play Lee at SS every day at the major league level, and bump both Culpepper and Houston up one level for the remainder of the year and see how they respond. Then in ST next year have an open competition for the best defensive SS with no offensive expectations. Both Houston and Culpepper are multiyear college players in their early 20’s. There is no reason to think they cannot maintain their defensive skills with a rapid rise to the majors. Zach Neto with the Angels is a good example. He was drafted in 2022 and was playing good major league SS by April of 2023. The bonus was that he also hit well. My gut tells me that Lee cannot cut it. His on-field body language just looks like someone who is in over his head. Also, his lack of speed and quickness just seems to point to a position switch. He may need to spend a considerable amount of time at AAA to reset both offensively and at a new position defensively. I think Culpepper is showing too much offensive potential to risk derailing it by rushing him. Maybe a number of weeks at AAA to close out 2025 sets those concerns aside. Houston was considered the top defensive SS in the draft; and maybe the top defensive player overall. He is my hope if he can hold down the position defensively and develop average offensive skills at the major league level. Time will tell.

I think that the assumptions that the “fire sale” will continue into the offseason are unfounded. Although money was certainly a factor in the push for the trades, the reality is that this version of the Twins just wasn't clicking and needed to be rebuilt. The strength of this team was an outstanding bullpen; a bullpen constructed by this current regime. Relievers are always in demand at the trade deadline. They are an upgrade that can be made to a team without upsetting the team chemistry. Just a comment about the Twins relievers sent out, that probably applies to relievers in general. Most good relievers are failed starters. If one was to go back and look at the comments on this site during the time that Jax and Varland were attempting to make it as starters, you would not find a whole lot of optimism. Each had shown an inability, for various reasons, to stick in the rotation at the major league level. The same was true for Stewart, only with the Dodgers rather than the Twins. Duran is the exception. I don’t remember if he ever started a game in the majors. The Twins made a decision early on that his future was at the back end of the pen. I have optimism regarding this team going forward for the following reasons: They did not trade any of their starters; the most difficult asset to develop and retain. They go into next year with 3 established starters (Lopez, Ryan, and Ober). They also have 3 young, developing starters in SWR, Festa, and Matthews; as well as a handful of youngsters just starting the MLB path or close to it. Throw in the 2 starters with MLB experience they got back (Abel and Bradley), and the other young arms acquired for Varland and Castro and you have a pretty deep pool of candidates for future rotations. It is a lot easier for the bullpen and offense to be effective when the starters are giving you a chance day in and day out. The core of the future bullpen is probably also within that group. Are Abel of Bradley more suited for the pen? How about Raya, Matthews, Festa, …? Time will tell. They were able to dump Correa and 2/3 of his salary. I look forward to seeing Culpepper or Houston at SS next year. Minor league time is less of a requirement for a good glove (applies more to Houston than Culpepper). They could follow the path the Angels took a couple years ago when they rushed Neto up to play SS. I think he was the first member of that class to reach the majors, essentially getting there in the first month of his first full year. They have a number of good young position players now, with another wave coming up soon. Some tough decisions probably need to be made with Lewis, Lee, Wallner, and Larnach. Where do they play, who stays and who goes? (IMO- Larnach has the sweetest swing since Jason Kubel). Defense needs to be a focus. They seem to have fallen into embracing too many players who can play multiple positions at an acceptable level, but none at an above average one. Trades will be made this winter, either by Falvey or someone new. That does not neccesarily signify a continued fire sale. Signings should be a possibility due to the $ savings from Correa, and hopefully the enthusiasm of a new owner. A stabilizing veteran presence in the bullpen and at DH/1B would be nice. A little luck with health, especially with the top minor leaguers would be nice as well. I think the path they have chosen makes sense. Our cupboards are not bare. I am optimistic about the future. Just not sure if I am optimistic about 2026. This type of path takes some time.

With Correa it is all about the money. I know many don’t want to hear it, but his $35-$40M/yr contract will be an issue going forward. Unless there are huge breakouts by young vets (Larnach, Walner, Lewis, Lee) or unexpected accelerations of rookies (Rodriguez, Keaschel, Jenkins, Culpepper) the Twins will not be serious contenders in ‘26, or maybe even ‘27. Look to this next wave 2 to 3 years out. Lock up the starting pitching, develop a back end of the bullpen, and see what develops with the upcoming position players. Forget about the return on a Correa trade. Get a couple of low level lottery tickets, eat a bit of his salary, and look to the future.

Just read an article at MLB.com that listed all of the prospects that have changed hands in trades since June 15th, starting with the Rafael Devers trade. Out of a total of roughly 35 prospects named, only 2 are MLB top 100 prospects. Guess who they are. Acquired from the Phillies in the Jhoan Duran trade: Eduardo Tait, C, Twins (MIN No. 4/MLB No. 56) Mick Abel, RHP, Twins (MIN No. 6/MLB No. 92) I know that some big chips are yet to fall, and more top 100’s will probably be on the move, but as of now it seems as if the Twins FO did just fine in their Duran trade. Whether or not they should have traded him is certainly open for debate, but the return certainly does not look as weak as some are insisting.

It seems that Painter was never going to be part of any deal. Crawford was probably gettable, but it may be that a C and starting P were more attractive to the Twins than another OF at this point. Overall, Phillie’s #3 and #6 prospects is a pretty good return for a relief pitcher, even one as good as Duran has been. If it was Ryan heading out you might get one more out of their top 10 along with someone in the teens or twenties, but that is the higher value of a #1 or #2 starter For me, system rankings is the only realistic way I can evaluate minor leaguers from other teams, or even the Twins for that matter. I don’t see them play, and even if I did I doubt that my assessment would be more reliable than that of the Twin’s scouts. For Nelson Cruz and a minor league pitcher the Twins received the #10 and 17 prospects from a very strong TB minor league system. The #10 was Joe Ryan For Berrios they received Toronto’s #2 (Martin) and 4 (SWR). A very good return that doesn’t look so great now. Give it 3 or 4 years from now and we will have a better idea of what they received in this deal. It will also be interesting to see how Duran has aged and what his contract status is.

My reaction also. Maybe for one of the relievers. No to any deal involving a “maybe” catcher. The next step is almost always DH or 1B. That a likely eventual move for most catchers, but you would like to get 6 or 7 years behind the plate first. I would rather they get a defense first catcher with a questionable bat tool. Bottom line is they do not need to do a deal. No deal is better than a bad one. A deal for one of the pending FA’s is a whole different discussion.

As is generally the case, all discussion on Rushing is whether or not he will hit. My question is whether or not he is a catcher defensively. If not, he will be a DH or corner OF for the Twins.

A high percentage of offensive players drafted, both high school and college, are shortstops. Take a quick glance at any mock draft for this year. Even though most are good athletes, not many remain there long term due to the defensive demands of the position. If I have a complaint with the Twins approach it is that they put off the move to an alternative position too long,, and often end up with young players learning on the fly at the major league level. It may be fine for some, but others would probably benefit greatly from being able to learn a new position in a lower stress setting. Lee is the most recent example. Lewis and Martin are other recent cases. there are currently a number of SS prospects on the horizon. My guess is that the staff already know which one or two have the potential to stick there long term. Hopefully the staff will get the others to positions that can be long term homes

It all depends on the balance of emphasis on defense/offense. I think they seem to be favoring Castro not being locked into a spot, but being available for utility duty on a daily basis. If so that probably excludes him from a quasi-everyday role at either 3B or 2B. That leaves Miranda, Julien, Lee, and Gaspar. Martin could be a surprise at 2nd, but they seem to be trying to get him to focus more on OF. Of these players, the only one with the potential of being an above average defensive player in the infield is Lee. His focus has seemed to be 2B and SS, so I hope they leave him there. Throwing in time at 3B could be problematic in his development both defensively and offensively. My thought is that they go into the year with Miranda as the starting 3B with Castro getting the backup/platoon innings, and Lee as the 2B. In my mind, his pedigree both as a college player and high draft choice earn him some leeway. I would like to see him pencilled in daily for the first couple of months regardless of short term results. As for backup at 2B, Gaspar/Martin/Castro is fine. I would prefer to see Julien start the year at St Paul. Let him get his feet under himself offensively once again. He showed too much promise a couple years ago to write him off yet or to relegate him strictly to a bench role. It would also allow him the option of getting regular reps at 1B if that is where they hope to have him play, rather than trying to learn it at the major league level. The caveat to all of this is that those who are there, making the decisions, have far more insight than any of us into the mental makeup of the players and what will impact them negatively or what they will be fine with. They also see them perform defensively at the various spots on a daily basis. That should still trump any defensive metrics, especially when dealing with SSS and learning a new position.

Thanks for the work that goes into these rankings. Full disclosure, my comment about the 2020 prospects was sort of an afterthought. After checking, it probably applies to 2015 or 10 years ago. . It looks like as many as 8 of 2020’s list will make this year’s opening day roster.

Not a criticism, just an observation. With all of these players we dream big. I assume they do as well. The hitters will all be high OPS (triple crown potential in my old guy language) with gold glove level defense. The pitchers will be workhorse starters (now 150 innings instead of the old 200-250) who give you a handful of complete games per year. Those who end up in either category are now fewer and further between. That is the new reality for all of these prospects. The old idea of “if he can hit, we will find a place for him” is a lot less accurate today. Julien, Miranda, and France are current examples of players on the fringe who are minimized by their defensive shortcomings. Severino has never gotten a look, probably due to his DH only status. Some of the prospects have a steeper hill to climb for this same reason. Amick and Rosario are examples. I am sure there are others, it is just that any defensive info is pretty hard to come by. The first hurdle is hitting. If you can’t hit you can’t make it, unless you happen to be a superior defensive player at a premium position (catcher, SS, CF), and even that doesn’t guarantee anything (hello DeShawn Keirsey). Versatility is now a key. Can a player fill multiple roles adequately, even if none of them are above average. Castro and Martin will probably both be on the opening day roster although neither has shown enough to be a regular at any one position. So although the main info reported on all of the hitters is a stat line, the real determinate for where their career goes for most of them will be how they develop defensively over the next 3-5 years. Pitchers dream of starting. The reality is that every team has close to twice as many relievers as starters, and almost all of the relievers began as starters. We are seeing that play out now in the career of Louis Varland. And finally, as all Twins fans know, the biggest variable for all of them is health. So I will gladly dream of Walker Jenkins waltzing into the HOF, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Luke Keaschall making multiple ASG appearances, and any number of outputs from the pitching pipeline battling for Cy Youngs or Firemen of the Year awards going forward. I will also firmly believe that Brandon Winokur will surprise everyone and become the “high OPS (triple crown potential in my old guy language) with gold glove level defense” star. I also know that 5 years from now we won’t recognize but a handful of the names on this top 30 list. I love following the minor leagues!!!

Any reports on his defense?

“The Twins’ lineup is far from elite, lacking a true right-handed power threat …”. ????? Buxton, Correa, Lewis, Miranda, Jeffers That is 50% of the lineup. I know durability is an issue, but who do you sit if you use your pitching wealth to acquire a high end RH bat and end up with a relatively healthy lineup? Not ideal but this is reality for the team.

Lee, Martin, and Julien will be given every opportunity to succeed, not based on their draft status but on their 40 man status. They can be sent down to AAA (not sure of Martin’s options status) but need to remain on the 40. Removing them exposes them to loss. It is not a simple swap for Eeles to be brought up. Losing any of those players on waivers would hurt. Give them the 1,000 AB’s or so that TK was so fond of referencing before you write them off. I am glad to see that there isn’t a lot of talk about Eeles at SS. From what I saw for the Saints, although willing I do not think he has the tools to play SS at the MLB level. It is a tools issue, not height. I go far enough back to remember Freddie Patel with the Royals.

I was going to mention Miller but had gone on too long already. First and foremost, a SS needs to be able to play defense. Offense is a bonus. Same for catcher. A good offensive player at either position who is below average defensively is a net negative.

The above is the reason why good offensive/defensive shortstops are so highly paid. When someone is signed as a SS you keep them there until they show they can’t handle it. It is the peak of the defensive pyramid. Hindsight is perfect but projection into the future is more difficult. I recall Polanco, and one other SS, I think either Rivas or Santana, being brought up from A or AA to play SS at the MLB level because they were thought to be major league ready defensively, but unclear if they would ever hit enough. Turns out they were fine offensively but lacking on the defensive side. I am fine with Lewis and Lee being left at SS in the minors since it would clearly be their highest value if they could stick there. Now that the decision has been made that they are not adequate at SS, or at least are not going to displace Correa, make a decision at a new position and let them develop. Dozier (a former SS) at 2B and Gaetti and Koskie at 3B are good examples of players who developed into very good defensive players once they were given the coaching and reps necessary. By the way, this discussion is the reason I have been a big proponent of Kim from San Diego being my first choice of a FA to pursue. Good defensive SS’s who can also hit are really hard to find.

The unfortunate reality for the Twins is that they do not have the budget to build a team in the same way as the larger market/budget organizations. 2025 will sink or swim based on the health of the big 3 on offense, the continued development of young veterans, and the emergence of rookies. In terms of rookies, Prielipp sits along side of Lee, Rodriguez, Festa, Matthews, Raya, … as potential breakout contributors. Personally I have no problem with any young pitcher getting his MLB career under way in the BP. To me it is similar to Lee and Lewis, minor league SS’s getting started at different positions. It will work itself out if they have ML ability.

Defense is really a slippery evaluation. I think it is a common view that the Twins in general were a poor defensive team in 2024. Personal opinion is that it resulted from injuries to the three big stars, necessitating the aggressive promotion of some players, and others playing out of position. Hopefully that will be addressed this year by having someone capable of playing at least average MLB defense at CF and SS. So what about catcher? Defensive metrics, questionable at best overall really seem to fail us when looking at catchers. In general Vazquez is seen as better than Jeffers, but how big is the gap? How about Carmargo? Is he good, is he horrible, is he passable? I think I have seen all three assessments on these pages. Now the new guy. When we first got him I read the following here at TD. “His defense has never been his calling card, though he has improved with his pitch-calling and framing in recent seasons, and his arm has always been regarded as above-average.“ Not exactly a ringing endorsement. Now in the above discussions I get the feeling he might be MLB ready defensively right now but needs some work on hitting. I think we are probably best served by waiting for the evaluators who work with the catchers on a daily basis to make the call. Overall I believe that for the Twins to have a successful 2025 they will need to be strong defensively up the middle (not exactly a novel idea). The best way for that to happen is for Buxton and Correa to remain healthy. Short of that the Twins need to make sure that they have solid defensively replacements on board. Hopefully they can contribute offensively, but that should not be the main consideration. Same thought should apply to catching.

If they decide to spend anything, I believe their biggest need is someone who can fill in at shortstop if Correa is out for any length of time. I like Kim from SD, but probably too spendy. As of now they have no one on the 40 man or close to it who has any business being at MLB SS for any extended period if Correa goes down. If they keep Kersey they have someone to play CF if Buxton sits. Choosing a spot, either 3rd or 2nd for Lewis and giving him an offseason and ST there should help. Same for Lee at the one Lewis isn’t at. Both are young enough, and good enough infielders that they should be at least average, hopefully somewhat above, if given the routine and repetitions. I think the biggest problem last year was lack of consistent, dependable defensive play. Not so much poor defenders, but everyone playing out of position. Utility players like Castro and Martin have value in their ability to fill in at a lot of spots. Unfortunately they tend to lose value when slotted into one spot for a long stretch.