Jump to content
Our free agent ranking is up to 100 names, and now you can filter by player position! Click here to check it out! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jharaldson

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    403

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jharaldson

  1. jharaldson
    I would disagree a bit. Berrios had great numbers with Ft. Meyers (10 K/9, 2 BB/9, 1.96 ERA) but came back to the pack in AA (6 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 3.54 ERA). I would maybe see rewarding a guy who performed really well at a high level like Trevor May who put up really good numbers against good competition (8.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, and a 2.84 ERA).
  2. jharaldson
    DId he pitch in the wiffleball game? How many pitches does he have? This page details over 70 different and awesomely named pitches. http://www.wikihow.com/Throw-Wiffle-Ball-Pitches http://pad1.whstatic.com/images/thumb/0/08/140447-29.jpg/670px-140447-29.jpg http://pad2.whstatic.com/images/thumb/d/d8/140447-27.jpg/670px-140447-27.jpg Realistically I wish the Twins would just spend the real money they have and go out and get a wiffleball Cy Young award winner like Joel Deroche. At some point it doesn't make sense waiting for prospects like Parker and Nick to work out, you have to go get that proven quantity. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXq5KvtNf4s
  3. jharaldson
    I did a little fun with Excel and found that of the bottom 10 defense you have many of the bottom ERA's as well but not always. The Indians are the 29th ranked defense in fangraphs but have the 16th ranked ERA. Similarilly the Red Sox are the 3rd ranked defense and have the 22nd ranked ERA. Another interesting one is that the Dodgers have the 19th ranked defense but the 5th ranked ERA. DEF RANK Team ERA RANK 1 Royals 10 2 Orioles 7 3 Red Sox 22 4 Reds 15 5 Angels 13 6 Braves 6 7 Cardinals 12 8 Athletics 3 9 Yankees 17 10 Mariners 1 11 Brewers 18 12 Rays 8 13 Nationals 2 14 Padres 4 15 Cubs 21 16 Mets 11 17 Diamondbacks 25 18 Giants 9 19 Dodgers 5 20 Rockies 30 21 Marlins 20 22 Rangers 29 23 Blue Jays 24 24 Phillies 19 25 Pirates 14 26 Twins 28 27 Tigers 23 28 White Sox 27 29 Indians 16 30 Astros 26
  4. jharaldson
    I agree with giving him the rest of this season and an extended run next season to get those innings and to figure this out. I am responding to those on this thread that are stating they were never that worried about May. Those that say Gibson had a bad 2013 followed by more success in 2014 so May will logically have more success in 2015 after his poor 2014. I personally predict a BABIP at least 40 points above league average next year with a LD% at least 3 points above league average next year based off what I have seen so far and question if he can be a success in 2015 with those type of batted ball numbers.
  5. jharaldson
    I am fine giving May a shot in the rotation next year but I think the positivity is a little early and ignores some very alarming batting numbers. His BABIP this year is .396 when league average is .296. Some people say that BABIP will normalize and this will just naturally get better over time and I disagree with that. If you look deeper at the BABIP numbers you would notice that he has had 8 games in the majors and never pitched a single one of them with a BABIP lower than .333. That is 0 for 8 on being at or below league average for BABIP and I think that is an indicator that it isn't something that will normalize but is something we should get used to for him. Another batting stat that is overlooked is his LD%. He is currently at 24.8% when league average is 20.9% This is another indicator that the high BABIP isn't just bad luck, he is legitimately getting hit hard. I hope he works out and I hope his K/9 is a stat that shines thorugh but I personally don't think we are going to end 2015 and look back at May and say "well, that spot is locked down".
  6. jharaldson
    I could see this. If you have a serious commitment to improving our defense putting a CF like Rasmus or Span in LF would show that. It would also give us more options if Hicks fails again or Buxton is delayed or not as good as we thought when he gets here.
  7. jharaldson
    He is on a 2 year/$16 million deal right now so I don't think he will get a longer deal than that. I would be fine with a 2 year deal in the $20-30 million range. If the Twins believe what Nick has written on this site and that they have no open spots other than LF then they should invest serious money in that spot and not just bring a ghost of Twins past.
  8. jharaldson
    I am going to take the contrary opinion here that Joe Mauer can be counted on for some kind of rebound. If part of his issue this year was recovering from the concussion and adapting to all of the changes in his life then I would expect the further in to this he gets the better he would be doing. His first 16 games after coming back from his oblique injury he had a .866 OPS and a 11.6% K%. The following 16 games tell a different story with Mauer logging a .710 OPS with a 25% K%. Obviously the sample sizes are small but they each total 10% of the season. My prediction is that we will never see another season where Joe posts an OPS over .800.
  9. jharaldson
    The most confusin thing about this play is that it seems like Stanton never saw the ball. He was making a swinging motion and never turned his head back. It was such an off play all around.
  10. jharaldson
    I agree that most teams have pitchers worse than Gibson on their teams. But we are talking about a rebuild and listing Gibson as an asset in that rebuild and I have a hard time looking positvely at a rebuild where the best young pitcher you have in the majors is currently performing at a below average rate. I also question the thought that he is going to probably improve. Looking at the year you see a regression from Gibson, not improvement. His ERA in April/May/June is 3.77 which is above league average and gets a person excited about him as part of the future. His ERA in July/August/September is 5.73 and shows a clear regression. His K/9 is way below average and his BB/9 is slightly below average as well.
  11. jharaldson
    Selig has a number of things that went wrong under him but the threatened contraction more on Carl Pohlad. Selig went to the owners and asked for volunteers. The Expos were a default choice. Speculation was a Marlins team that wasn't taking hold in Florida despite winning was going to be the second team until Carl Pohlad raised his hand and volunteered to take baseball away from MN. The real villain in the contraction story is Carl with Selig and Contraction just being a tool Pohlad used.
  12. jharaldson
    I generally use Fangraphs for stats because it is a little easier to navigate so if I use their ERA- the league average for Starters is 102 where Gibson is 110 and will be moving on up after his crappy start today. I do agree with your basic point though which is he is below average but not a ton below average. If I were to compare this to a School Grade with C as average he is closer to a C- or D+ than he is to a D or D-.
  13. jharaldson
    Gibson has been a below average starter this year. League Average ERA 3.86, Gibson 4.27. League Average xFIP 3.80, Gibson 4.01. There is a place in the rotation for below average but not awful starters (4/5 spot) but he is not a guy I would want May aspiring to be. I am a little more pessimistic on the guys you listed: Hughes - Great this year and think he will continue. Gibson - Looks to be settling in to the 4/5 spot May - Awful, still hasn't thrown a quality start. If you only look at his last 3 games his ERA is still 8.00. Meyer - 4.5 BB/9, can't get deep into games, team still babying the shoulder. Not confident at all that he is going to positively impact the team in 2015. My opinion is the starting staff is still going to be a dumpster first next year, 4 years into the rebuild.
  14. jharaldson
    For further comparison, from 2005-2009, the previous 5 year period, the Royals were dead last in starting pitching era and fired 2 coaches, Guy Hansen in 2006 and Bob McClure in 2011.
  15. jharaldson
    The Twins have the worst ERA for starting pitching over the last 5 years. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=15,d It isn't getting better as we are dead last again this year. Rick Anderson has been the pitching coach during that entire tenure and he absolutely needs to be held accountable for this poor performance and be let go from this team.
  16. jharaldson
    I guess I am not as excited by the Hicks resurgence as some. Looking at his AAA numbers his .738 OPS would have been ranked 80th in AAA for OF with 250 PA or more. Browsing through the list above him had never-will-be's like Jason Pridie above him so that performance was not really that great. I was at the game last night and his defense still looks suspect. There was a ball hit over his head and he completely screwed up the bounce and let the runner turn a double into a triple. He still isn't driving the ball either with all of his hits since coming back up being singles. I expect another disappointment next year from Hicks and have no faith he will be any part of this team beyond 2015.
  17. jharaldson
    I have some bad news, the last few days the Twins have performed poorly enough and the Rockies and Rangers just good enough that the Twins have slipped into their comfortable last place in starter ERA. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=15,d But we should be optimistic and assume all the guys that sucked this year (Nolasco, May, Milone, Pelfrey) will just get better.
  18. jharaldson
    24.7% of the balls hit of off Trevor May are line drives right now. For perspective, that ranks 121st out of 125 for starting pitchers with over 100 innings. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=100&type=2&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=5,d I would also say that minor league pitchers sometimes have an advantage for a period of time on MLB hitters because there is not a bunch of video on them and they have not seen them pitch before. The fact that May is so hittable during this stretch where just pure unfamiliarity should give him an edge makes me worried that his high BABIP might normalize but that normalization might be well above league average.
  19. jharaldson
    I guess I don't buy that his BABIP is going to normalize. He has had starts with bad control, good control, bad strikeout numbers, good strikeout numbers and the one constant through all of these is when batters make contact they get hits. He does not have a single start year that is withing 58 points of league average BABIP. During the last 3 starts his BABIP has actually gotten worse. During his first 3 starts he had no HR allowed and during the last 3 he has allowed 3 HR. 2 of the runners on base during the grand slam in Baltimore were put on by HBP which is reflected in almost no stats with the exception of ERA.
  20. jharaldson
    I looked at Fangraphs and Milone has dramitically changed the pitches he is throwing. He has thrown a lot fewer 2 seam fastballs and replaced that with the 4 seam. He has dropped off a bunch of his curves and replaced them with changeups. If he was throwing the same set of stuff that he threw in Oakland with different results I would think Milone is the issue but since the gameplan seems to be different I have to think that some fault lies in the coaching staff and catchers. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7608&position=P#pitchtype
  21. jharaldson
    I am a little conerned with the dramitic drop in his K/9 (10 -> 6) when going from A+ to AA. That fact alone makes me think he is still lower on the rung than Meyer who has maintained a strong number.
  22. jharaldson
    Just to confirm, you are using the presence of 3 plate appearances in AA as a reason why Buxton might be ready for the majors at some point next year. If such a limited sample size is worth noting then I would also note that he has a .000 OPS, a -100 wRC+, and an astonishing 100 K% in AA.
  23. jharaldson
    I am going to challenge the list a little bit. If the point of the article is “a recurring theme of the 2014 Minnesota Twins minor league season has been injuries” then I think the list Seth presented is overly broad. Below is my assessment of injuries suffered in the 2014 season: 1. Buxton – Snakebit is the right term, the number of unrelated injuries is frustrating and has cost him the season. 2. Sano – Not injured in 2014. Injured in 2013 and continuing treatment. The spring training throw didn’t cause his elbow to blow out, it just exposed the 2013 injury was still there. 3. Meyer – Not injured 2014. 4. Stewart – Shoulder injury, 1 month, maybe more. 5. Rosario – Not injured 2014. 6. Berrios – Shoulder injury, 1 game 7. Pinto – Hip injury, 3 weeks 8. Polanco - Not injured 2014. 9. Thorpe – Not injured 2014. 10. May – Calf injury, 1 month. If you told me that of our 10 ten guys that 5 would have suffer no injury in 2014, 4 would miss 1 month or less due to injury in 2014, and 1 guy would have awful luck I would have been happy with those numbers. Sometimes I think too much attention is paid to top 10 prospect lists and people will project the future like all 10 will make it. If we have 2 or 3 really good players, 2 or 3 role players, and the rest flame out then I will think this list looks pretty good.
  24. jharaldson
    In regards to the part of conversation about everyoe being a doctor on Joe Mauer, I think there is only one person to blame and that is Joe Mauer. This thread is clearly divided on what was the cause of the bilateral leg weakness. I have seen these reasons in this thread and others: - It was a viral infection - It was coming back too fast from knee surgery - It was none of our business - It was Lyme Disease (Dark Star) - It was Joe being soft - It was poor conditioning - It was a lost season, no need to rush back - And many more All Joe had to do to clear this up was have a 15 minute conversation with a beat writer during the issue. Don't let the Twins speak for him in their random press releases from their poor medical staff. Have a one on one and tell from his perspective what is wrong. Joe Mauer is an introvert. Some of the public interaction doesn't come easy to him, He isn't the loud guy in the locker room. But as the highest paid player on the team with a nearly $200 million contract the fans of this team deserve to have accurate info as to why their star player missed half a season.
  25. jharaldson
    His HR/9 rate can only be partially explained by his good GB%. He is also well under league average for HR/FB% which contributes to the lack of HR he is getting. I am mixed on Gibson. I always hoped he could be a solid #2 and hoped his 8 or 9 K/9 rates from the minors would stick around. As it is there is still value in a high contact sinkerball pitcher but as with our previous experience with Silva they can also go to hell pretty quickly.
×
×
  • Create New...