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jharaldson

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Everything posted by jharaldson

  1. jharaldson
    No, my criteria for being an "inside guy" for Twins management is simple. Did you instruct Minnesota Twins Major or Minor league players in 2014? Paul Molitor did and has done so for 11 years, Bruno for 4 years, Glynn for 3 years, Rudy has for 14 years, Guardado for 2-3 years, and Willis has not. I am not going to bend over backwards to find a connection for Willis and I am also not going to figure out how only being in the org for 3 years qualifies Glynn as an "outsider".
  2. jharaldson
    Why is the eye better than WAR? My eye only catches something like 60-80 games a year on TV and basically just for the Twins. WAR caputures every play for evey player through observers that are trained better than I am. How can I rank Florimon amongst SS using the eye test when I don't have enough eye data on his competition? It seems to me that WAR is much like Democracy, it is the worst stat available except for all of the others.
  3. jharaldson
    http://i.ytimg.com/vi/Bgk4b7Wm3sk/maxresdefault.jpg
  4. jharaldson
    I am sure that the Cuddyer has a career total of 15.9 WAR and a 2 year total of 3 WAR according to baseball-reference.
  5. jharaldson

    War

    jharaldson posted a gallery image in Members Albums Category

    War

    From the album: jharaldson

    Cuddyer war value
  6. jharaldson
    According to Baseball-Reference Cuddyer produced a 1.2 WAR in 2014 and Fangraphs had him at 1.5 so I am not sure where the numbers above are coming from? If you go by fWAR Cuddyer produced 3.9 WAR over the past 2 years. I have no evidence to back this up but my gut tells me he has a 66% chance of doing that over the next 2 years. Is a 66% chance of 4 WAR over the next 2 years better than an 18% of 15-20 WAR that starts in over 6 years? I don't know but I do think it is interesting that a team is thinking outside of the box that prospects are the only thing that matter.
  7. jharaldson
    The 15th pick in the draft has produced 9 players in 50 years that have accumulated 10 or more WAR in their career. That is an 18% hit rate. I think it is interesting for a team like the Mets to ditch the 18% chance on 10+ WAR 6-10 years from now and to go for someone like Cuddy who has a much more solid chance of giving the Mets what he gave the Rockies, about 4 WAR over 2 years. The Mets were a 79 win team last year and if you add a couple of wins here and there suddenly you are competing. http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=15&draft_type=junreg&
  8. jharaldson
    Looking at this list makes me confused why Buehrle isn't more of a target of this team. I created a leaderboard at fangraphs with all the players above and Buehrle and if you look at the 1, 3, and 5 year timeframes Buehrle is better than each of the pitchers listed. The Twins failed to take advantage of similar salary dump offerings 2 years ago when Santana and Haren were available so I hope they turn that around now. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=2038,8223,5842,4567,5088,4138,9346,225&sort=19,d
  9. jharaldson
    I would agree that Bruno was the "no-brainer" choice to bring back but I would think that Steinback and Cuellar would take an extended search for their jobs the same way Molitor took an extended search for his job. If Molitor was able to accept a 5 week delay then Cuellar and Steinbach should be able to as well. Personal Prediction: Pitching Coach - Cuellar Bench Coach - Glynn
  10. jharaldson
    I don't buy this. I would put money on either Cuellar or Steinbach being back in some capacity next season.
  11. jharaldson
    I think something that has been undersold in this is the stadium. Wrigley is great for history but awful to work in. Players, Managers, reporters all hate it. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16481 It was identified as the least sanitary ballpark: http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/15503536-573/wrigley-field-is-the-least-clean-ballpark-in-the-majors.html#.VFpGWfldV8E I think a GM who was really trying to get Maddon to come here would have played up this angle and talked about the workplace environment Maddon would need to be in. Especially after Maddon spent a decade at a crappy stadium in Tampa.
  12. jharaldson
    And in the minds of many Twins fans Ryan went in assuming "no" was the answer and unwilling to fight for Maddon.
  13. jharaldson
    As a person who was opposed to the Molitor hiring and the general in inbred nature of how the Twins fill their positions I think it is time to move on with that part of the argument and discuss what we would like to see Molitor do in his position. I would love to see him come out in his meeting tomorrow and give a clear and precise tactical change he will bring to the table. Something specific like stopping the fliritng with Mauer in the 2 hole. Gardy gave him 303 PA in the 3 hole vs 214 in the 2 hole. Maybe talk about how he won't be afraid to have his primary catcher catching and his backup at DH. Maybe the further evidence of greater emphasis on defensive shifts. Just something to show folks like me that he actually is different.
  14. jharaldson
    I agree that Viola should not be considered a Twins insider and I would be pleasantly surprised if he were hired. I personally would be more inclined to look at some of the organizations that are more well thought of than the Mets for an outsider. Perhaps the Giants, Cardinals, or Rays.
  15. jharaldson
    Just to be clear, May had a failed season at High A ball in 2010 as well and combined with his failed 2012 AA season the Phillies decided he wasn't a top guy anymore.
  16. jharaldson
    How was Meatsauce able to report from his sources over a week ago and prior to the second interview with Lovullo if the decision wasn't already made?
  17. jharaldson
    I am assuming they will get jobs on the staff. Twins won't go outside the org so Bruno will stay at hitting coach, Cuellar will slide into the pitching coach duties. Steiny will get bench coach or one of the base coach positions. Glynn or Dougie will come up from the minors an take either bench coach or a base coach position. After they are in place we will be told that a long search took place for each of those spots and it just so happened that all the best candidates worked for us already.
  18. jharaldson
    I thought it was an interesting interview. At some point there are only so many ways to ask the same question so I think you moved on well. jheraldson ;-)
  19. jharaldson
    In the handbook that was released today (and I recommend that everyone get it, great read) there was a comment regarding Worley that I had concern with: I find the lack of curiosity here very frustrating. I don't think the "click" theory put forward by Ryan is a deep enough thought to this problem. I don't get how we basically gave away Worley for nothing because our staff said that is what he was worth and then he turns it around in another org. I would have hoped he would have said something to the effect of:
  20. jharaldson
    During the No Juice portion of this Dave St. Peter mentioned debt servicing multiple times as both part of the other 50% and as part of where some unspent payroll goes, along with Target Field imrovements and Minor League facility improvements. So yes, part of the budget involves paying off the Pohlad contribution to Target Field based on my understanding of the answers given.
  21. jharaldson
    12th best WAR amongst AL SP. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=al&qual=y&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,d
  22. jharaldson
    I would think that picking up one the best pitchers in the AL last year for almost nothing on a 1 year contract would be fine. Flip Hicks for Buehrle and trot out a rotation of: Hughes Buehrle Nolasco Gibson May Have Meyer, Pelfrey, and Milone in either AAA or in relief and know that at least 1 or 2 spots will open up during the year due to injury or failed performance.
  23. jharaldson
    I think the Twins totally failed in the manner they launched Victory sports. Here are a couple of things the Twins did while launching: - FSN was charging $1.70 per subscriber for the Twins, Wild, Wolves, and Gopher Hockey. Victory was asking for $2.20 for the Twins and some Gophers stuff. - The Twins were not going to increase the amount of games shown and only had 100 games on the board for Victory, despite the fact they did not have another big partner to fill time. The Twins should have launched Victory at a discount ($1.00-1.25) and increased the number of games televised to 130 or 140 to get on the lineup. After being on for a few year they could have gone for the big money.
  24. jharaldson
    I sure would like to see the Twins try though. Make an offer to him and make it public so the fans know that we put our best effort into this. If it comes out that Ryan made a 5 year/$30 million offer and Maddon rejects it then I praise the Twins for trying.
  25. jharaldson
    I was just looking at the Maddon Twitter feed and it is amazing how he down to earth he seems. His bit with the t-shirt promoting either individual causes or organizations is a nice way to connect with the community and he actually put some baseball thoughts out there as well. I looked at the 5 managers on twitter and he is the only guy actually doing something with it: https://twitter.com/MLB/lists/managers/members https://twitter.com/RaysJoeMaddon This is obviously of minimal importance to his skills as manager but I think it does show he definately is a unique voice among MLB managers.
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