jharaldson

Torii Hunter was a mentor to Denard Span. http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070313&content_id=1841143&vkey=spt2007news&c_id=min&fext=.jsp

I had skipped reading the Colabello article previously so after reading this quote I went back to it to see what this was about. Did Joe take Chris under his wing? Did he provide batting advice? Did he work with Chris in the field or in the cage? Did he work with Chris outside of baseball to figure some personal things out? Did Joe have a hand in convincing Chris not to go to Korea? I was genuinely interested to see what the leadership in question was. Here is the quote: I don't find being "present" a great leadership skill. I am in IT and if a developer on my team was "present" and had great poise and undestanding of how he attacks any given problem and great technical skills I would say he is a great developer but he isn't a leader. One other interesting thing in the article is when Chris disregards Joe's practice of letting first pitch strikes go by:

This is what bugs me about Mauer, can you show me a link to where he had a sit down interview with a beat reporter and discussed this? Where did he say "I suffered setbacks from my knee surgery that prevented me from training correctly and resulted in overuse of the other leg and leg strain?" When I look up official reports on this I find: December 2010 http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101216&content_id=16335884&c_id=min February 2 2010 http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110222&content_id=16705916&notebook_id=16705966&vkey=notebook_min&c_id=min April 15, 2010 http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110414&content_id=17778260&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb During this whole time we get quotes about how Mauer should be ready and how minor everything was and then the Bilateral Leg Weakness hits and Mauer isn't willing to explain it. The only quotes I can find from that season from Joe are at the end where he is being combative about Walking Pneumonia: September 27, 2011 http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/130605028.html I don't care about the dingers, the passive personality, the huge contract, ect...... but I do care that he showed almost no concern that entire season that fans actually want to know what is wrong with him. I am concerned that he allowed a vaccum to be created where all this random talk about lyme disease, aids, huge knee issues, ect... was created by the media because he couldn't do a couple of simple 5-10 minute interviews with a beat reporter and keep the media and public aware of what was going on.

I am personally watching 4 guys on offense: Name/OPS Pinto/.778 Dozier/.667 Hicks/.546 Arcia/.380 Pinto is doing well in very limited AB's (9) but I am very disappointed that the other 3 are not contributing more to this effort.

It's just one series but I kind of flinch when I go to the stat leaders and the top 2 homerun guys in the AL are there because they just mashed our pitching.

There was a quote in the companion article that symbolizes why in my mind Joe Mauer has lost his connection with many fans. He and his wife dined at a restaurant and afterwords his server tweeted “Just served Joe Mauer of the Minnesota Twins! He gave me a fat tip!". After this type of positive, joyful response from a fan I could imagine Kirby having responded like this when asked about it: Facial Expression – Big smile and a laugh Quote – “Aw man, that’s hilarious! She deserved every cent of the tip, she was busting her rear covering half the restaurant.” Here is how I would have hoped Joe had handled it: Facial Expression – Shy smile Quote – “That’s cool, she was a nice lady and did a good job.” And here is how he actually responded: Facial Expression – Rolled eyes Quote - “Glad I left enough, I guess, you never know who’s watching.” http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/253068271.html

In the wikipedia entry I looked at they used Dividend instead of profit. The Dividend does not include the tax calculation in it which makes it similar to the operating income. I will edit my post to change the name from profit to operating income though. Thanks!

So I am going to start this post by stating that I am not an accountant and would appreciate if any accountants could verify or correct what I am going to try to do. My understanding is that Rate of Return is calculated the following way: Rate of Return = ( (Current Value + Operating Income) - Initial Investment ) / Initial Investment http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rate_of_return#Return Change in Twins franchise value since 2007 = $389 million Operating Income since 2007 = $175 million http://www.forbes.com/teams/minnesota-twins/ Initial Investment = $168 million spent by Twins on Target Field http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080915&content_id=3479874&vkey=news_min&fext=.jsp&c_id=min 235% = ( (389 + 175) - 168 ) / 168 That is over 7 years though so if you divide that number by 7 you get an annual return of 33.5%. Does this look right?

In the years leading up to the 2006 vote to finance the stadium the Twins operated at a break-even level. If you examine the 2008 Business of Baseball entry on the Twins they made $5 million total from 1999-2006, less than $1 million a year. After they got the vote to build the stadium they have made $175 million from 2007-2013, about $25 million a year. A lot of the anger towards the Twins is in regards to this clear change in business practice immediately after the taxpayers gave them $392 million in public subsidies. 2008 Forbes http://www.forbes.com/lists/2008/33/biz_baseball08_Minnesota-Twins_330400.html 2013 Forbes http://www.forbes.com/teams/minnesota-twins/ Target Field Wiki (For Subsidy Amount) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Target_Field

Can you provide any data to show Guerra throws harder than Worley? Fangraphs has Worley at 94 max and 89.4 average as a starter which normally increases when moved to a relief role (compare to Perkins): http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=6435&position=P I can't find specifics on Guerra but when searching I came to this article from Gleeman in 2013 http://aarongleeman.com/2013/01/24/top-40-twins-prospects-of-2013-40-39-38-37-36/ Worley has had over 260 innings of major league success and has more upside than an 8 year minor league free agent coming off life threatening shoulder surgery. In an effort to forge an agreement I will stipulate that both guys are unlikely to ever make an impact in the majors again and that we are splitting hairs over who has a 5% chance and who has a 2% chance.

Deolis Guerra has less upside. He has been in the minors for 8 years now and is coming off a significant shoulder surgery. He does not crack prospect lists anymore: http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/2463-Minnesota-Twins-Top-50-Prospects-Summary I would absolutely prefer starting Deolis in AA or dumping him outright over selling Worley to the Pirates.

Of the mulitple teams that called on Worley, did you get the impression that the Pirates were the only team that made an offer or did the Twins turn down other offers?

If they are doing a favor to Worley then give him his outright release and let him choose where he goes. Trading only for cash is only going to piss off people that think this org is cheap and isn't enough money to make it really worth it.

I don't think the 2014 Twins are going to be the worst of the past 4 years but this article from Mackey lingers in my mind as I consider that: http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Mackey_Projecting_the_Minnesota_Twins_2013_regular_season_record032613

The comp to this discussion is the Longoria contract that effectively did the same thing but I would note that the Longoria contract was signed after he was already in the majors (April 18, 2008) and had played a couple of weeks. Because of this they broke the connection between the contact this looks a little more on the up and up. If there are any lawyers out there to comment, would this be considered blackmail? The Astros are threatening his pay and service time unless he signs a contract below market value. Definition: to exact or attempt to exact (money or anything of value) from (a person) by threats or intimidation;

It's not like Pelfery pulled a Worley this spring, he has nearly a 2/1 K/BB ratio, an ERA around 2.5, and has shown decent stuff. If it was a competition, which it wasn't, it still would have been a tough call.

I wonder if the fastball thing works against him in pitch framing. The ump can see the ball coming in on a straight line so the ump relies less on the glove/frame but a ball that moves more they are possibly looking more at the where it lands in the glove to detemine the strike. Or again, maybe not. These catcher stats are still so new it is hard to get a good feel for what is real and what is bull.

Catching metrics are kind of odd because you are right that his pitch framing skills were below average but he was top 10 in preventing passed balls and wild pitches. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1656428

Thank you for the clarification! After your explanation of how this was converted from a message to a person who frequently discussed the 52% topic it makes sense that points you describe are directed at folks with the 52% view but your summary is very balanced. Great site and I think it is a credit that you have these open types of discussions!

Your first post in the thread was the following: You neither discussed the specific years or dollars but instead praised the front office for a “Lowball” negotiating strategy. This post was immediately liked by a number of “smart spenders”. Two posts down Winston stated the following: This post doesn’t talk about the specific years or money for Santana either but criticizes the front office for a “Cheap” negotiating strategy. That post is immediately liked by the “52%” crowd. The divisiveness of the payroll topic brings the thread to a close and at the end it feels like a number of good points about the remaining options with Drew and Morales got lost. I would also say it feels like the blame gets placed on the “52%” crowd at both the conclusion of the thread and in the addendum thread with no similar warnings to the “smart spenders”. In short, I think keeping current and future threads from being junked up with the same payroll discussions is a great idea and would be a wonderful addition to the forum but placing all responsibility/blame on one group (“52%”) is the wrong way to go about it.

I modified my proposal to include your suggestion of using existing moderation tools based on the comment policy.

Hello, I am a frequent reader and infrequent poster to Twinsdaily.com and was reading a moderator explanation about a topic being locked down recently and the problems with discussing payroll on this site. The discussion of the reasoning seemed focused on the group that feels the Twins are not fulfilling perceived promises around payroll size and did not focus at all on the group that is always looking for the best deal, regardless if a deal is needed or not. Examples of this from the thread that were not called out and seem to have moderator support: “The Twins handled the Santana and Garza situation correctly, IMO. Lowball them late in the offseason and if one bites, great. If not, that's fine” “don't spend money just for the sake of spending money.” “Better to make savvy decisions than throw money at the wall and see what sticks. But hey, it's not our money, so why should we care right?” “What I do care about is that one dollar spent today is one dollar that cannot be spent tomorrow.” “The Twins haven't had to overpay (at least, not vastly overpay) for the free agents they've acquired in recent years (though most have been bad). There's no reason to start doing so now.” Comments like these invite a payroll discussion and they inflame and restart tired debates as well. If moderators are perceived as having chosen a side then I think it will be unhealthy for the site in general. My recommendation is that Twinsdaily.com makes a value statement like the following: Twinsdaily.com values difference in opinion over the payroll issue but feels it has become too pervasive in all topics on the site. Beginning now, unless a thread is started with the intent to discuss payroll we ask the following items not be discussed: Higher Payroll - %52 payroll, lots of available money - Taxpayer funding of new stadium - Cheap Pohlads aren’t spending money so they can get more ivory backscratchers. Lower Payroll - Don’t spend money to spend money - Twins must only sign savvy, lowball, below market deals - Twins can’t “Overpay” Posts that fall into these categories that are not on payroll threads will be subject to moderation per item 2 (Thread-Jacking) in our comment policy. I am looking for feedback if anyone thinks this will address the issue. Thanks!

Willingham's agent did state he accepted less money here, but never stated the amount which could mean anything from several million a year, a fourth year option buyout, or an extra $100,000 in incentives. Given we don't know what is going on there we can look at what he was projected to get and compare. Projected 3 yr/$24 million http://www.twinkietown.com/2011/12/13/2634230/josh-willingham-to-sign-with-twins Actual 3 yr/$21 million Compare this to E Santana Projected 5 yrs/$75 million http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/free-agent-profile-ervin-santana.html Twins Offer 3 yrs/$33 million Same years, $1 million less a year does not compare to 2 years less, $4 million less a year.

Can you provide any examples of where lowball multi year free agent offers were made by the Twins and accepted by the free agent? Garza, E Santana, J Santana, Hunter, Guardado, Hawkins, Casey Blake, ect...... all turned down these types of offers from the Twins over the years. If they never succeed is it really an offer?

Some other stats to look at: Number of seasons at AA = 2 ERA rank = 65th out of 82 qualified August ERA = 6.27 He has some nice secondary stats (K%) and some crappy ones (BB%) but the end result is he repeated a grade, didn't dominate, and finished weak. He may turn out to be decent but my money is on him not even giving us 1 WAR in his career.