Ted Schwerzler

The lack of exit velocity, even without power, could be problematic but he is comfortable again.

Guys that show plate discipline at his age are rare. Check out the .400 OBP

Last season brought some significantly drastic rule changes to Major League Baseball. We saw pitch clocks and newly sized bases. We also saw a shift ban for the first time in the sport's history. How did the Minnesota Twins handle it, though? Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports When Rob Manfred announced that Major League Baseball would ban the shift beginning with the 2023 regular season, the expectation was that a handful of players might find enhanced opportunities for production. The sport wanted to increase run production in an age where pitching has never been better. Mandating where players can stand throughout the field is something new, and it was undoubtedly set to impact all clubs. In December, Matt Trueblood talked about how Rocco Baldelli’s club employed their defensive alignment throughout the season. He determined that Minnesota was the shadiest club in all of baseball. That piece focused on the defensive side, but how did their offense fare? After all, Max Kepler has long been talked about as a player who should be expected to benefit from defensive position restrictions, even though that boost might have been minimal. A year ago, the Twins had a 41.8% pull rate. That tracked as the 11th-highest rate in baseball and was the 7th-highest mark in the American League. Those numbers don’t put them in the upper tier when it comes to yanking the ball down the lines, but it has been something they have been noted to incorporate as part of their process. In 2022, the Twins pulled the ball virtually an identical 41.9% of the time. Still, that number was the sixth highest across baseball, trailing only the Rangers and Astros among American League competition. Despite drastic positioning rule changes over the past two seasons, the Twins didn’t deviate from where their players attempted to put the ball in play. The results, looking at the batting average on balls in play, show a slight bump in outcomes, though. During 2022, Minnesota owned a .295 BABIP, keeping them just outside the top 10 across the sport. Last season, Minnesota’s BABIP rose to .304 and bumped them up to round out the top 10. That change is minimal on the surface but certainly can be impactful throughout an entire season. Not unexpectedly, it wasn’t just the Twins that saw a rise in BABIP year-over-year. In 2023, there were 13 teams with a BABIP north of .300, while 2022 saw just seven teams reach that plateau. With the league looking to increase offense and generate more action on batted balls, it’s hard to argue against doubling the number of teams seeing success. Another area of note when it comes to the shift is launch angle. Lifting the ball over defenders has always been the most straightforward way to avoid outs, and it’s why putting the ball on the ground remains the least reasonable way to generate offense. The Twins saw that in a big way last season, thanks to a strong year from Max Kepler. Traditionally, a guy who had spoken about driving the ball into the ground, his desire to lift the baseball generated his best OPS+ (121) since 2019. In 2022, the Twins put up just a 13.1-degree launch angle as a team. In 2023, Baledlli’s club owned a 14.5-degree launch angle. A launch angle of less than 10 degrees will almost always result in a ground ball, whereas one between 10-25 degrees is often a line drive. Depending on exit velocity, the optimal launch angle would be something that lands between 15-30 degrees, and that’s where a batter will see the most success. Although the offense was stagnant at times a year ago, the consistency with which Minnesota put balls in play with ideal launch angles was something that could beat the shift, even had it not been removed. As The Athletic’s Dan Hayes notes above in a conversation with MLB.com’s Mike Petriello, the shift could undoubtedly be seen as something of a mental game. Due to positioning, the defense attempted to get a batter to act in a way they otherwise wouldn’t. We immediately saw this during spring training when the Boston Red Sox vacated left field as Joey Gallo stepped up to bat. Despite leaving one-third of the outfield open, they asked the Twins hitter to operate in a way he otherwise would not have within the box. Thankfully for the Twins, more often than not, they stuck to their process a year ago. Although defenders were now told where they had to play, Minnesota continued to pull the ball and saw a greater level of success from it. Beyond that, though, they also looked for more “A” swings and lifted pitches for an opportunity to find gaps or put the baseball over the wall. To what extent Major League Baseball is happy with the outcomes of year one since banning the shift remains to be seen. How the game continues to be impacted in the future will also be an interesting case study. For Minnesota, though, continuing the same process while putting added air under the baseball is something that they should expect to benefit from in 2024. View full article

I think that's what drives his price down, and it could be the organization that he's over with rather than something personally.

It's that time of year, and the Minnesota Twins will soon be fully engaged with spring training activities down in Sunny Fort Myers, Florida. Before the season kicks off though, and with prospect positioning set to move, I needed to put out my updated top 15 prospects for the 2024 Major League Baseball season. The highest ranked player on the 2023 list, Royce Lewis, has since graduated and he took a couple of players with him. Both Matt Wallner and Louie Varland are no longer prospect eligible, and Edouard Julien joined them in becoming a regular for Rocco Baldelli's squad. It should be expected that a few of these names will move on by the time the dust settles on 2024, and that would be a good outcome in terms of development. I have been posting my top 15 prospect lists here since 2016, and you can find each of them below: 2016 Top 15 Prospects 2017 Top 15 Prospects 2018 Top 15 Prospects 2019 Top 15 Prospects 2020 Top 15 Prospects 2021 Top 15 Prospects 2022 Top 15 Propsects 2023 Top 15 Prospects Now to get into the 2024 list: 15. Yunior Severino INF Signed when the Atlanta Braves were made to forfeit players from an international signing class that they cheated to acquired, Severino has become the darling of that group. He emerged to the highest level of the farm for Minnesota last year and showed thump that could have him as a valuable first base type. There's a lot of swing and miss, but he's now on the 40-man roster and has a clear path to a debut. 14. Matt Canterino RHP No one has bounced around more on these prospect lists for me over the years than Canterino. Drafted out of Rice, he underwent Tommy John surgery and has dealt with arm issues as many of their pitchers do. Fully healthy, he could be an absolute weapon for Minnesota in relief this year. His stuff is impressive, and should play up even more as a reliever. 13. C.J. Culpepper RHP A 13th round pick in 2022, Culpepper reached High-A Cedar Rapids in his first full professional season. The 3.56 ERA across 86 innings was impressive, and he owned a 9.3 K/9. There's still plenty of development to take place here, but a late round arm that works in the vein of Bailey Ober or Louie Varland is something to dream on. 12. Kala'i Rosario OF Sent to the Arizona Fall League after the season, Rosario got in extra reps and showed out with the power. He flashed some exciting potential during big league spring training action prior to the 2023 season, and his solid year at High-A should have him ready for the Double-A challenge this season at just 21 years old. 11. Luke Keaschall INF Minnesota took Keaschall in the second round of the 2023 Major League Baseball draft out of Arizona State and he immediately took to pro ball. He posted an .892 OPS in 31 games, and helped the Cedar Rapids Kernels secure a championship at the end of the season. He probably starts in Iowa, but could make his way to Double-A Wichita quickly. 10. Tanner Schobel INF The Virginia Tech product tore up High-A Cedar Rapids in 2023 and earned a promotion to Double-A. He struggled out of the gate for Wichita, but did bat .294 over his final 14 games. He'll need to tap back into some of the power potential that was left in Cedar Rapids, but there's the makings of a big league regular here. 9. Charlee Soto RHP The Twins took Soto with the 34th overall pick in the 2023 draft and he didn't pitch at all last season. Looking to build up his body and prepare for pro ball, 2024 should be a fun debut season. There is an upper-90's fastball in the arsenal, and while he's a high school arm, there is a lot to work with here. 8. Brandon Winokur OF A tools'd out high school kid taken in the third round of the 2023 draft, Winokur impressed in limited action last year. He posted an .884 OPS across 17 games at the rookie ball level, and he showed off the power and speed combination. The plate discipline is something to watch as he develops, but the ceiling for him is immense. 7. Cory Lewis RHP Drafted just inside of the first ten rounds during 2022, Lewis has emerged as one of Minnesota's best pitching prospects. He throws a knuckle ball but isn't a knuckleballer. With dominant stuff that led to a 10.5 K/9 in his first pro season, Lewis could start at Double-A in 2024 and may be a late season option for the Twins to consider. 6. Austin Martin INF/OF Similar to Canterino, Martin has bounced around on my prospect lists. He got back to a workable swing last year, and while the power potential isn't there, he has solid bat to ball skills and has a good contact ability. Speed is the play here, and while exit velocities could limit his overall production, he already profiles as a plus defender in center field. 5. David Festa RHP Taken in the 13th round of the 2021 draft, Festa represented the Twins at the 2023 Futures Game. He made his way to Triple-A St. Paul and is right there among the best pitching prospects in the organization. Festa can push velocity while also showing a strong command of his pitches. He had 119 strikeouts in 92 1/3 innings last season. Expect to see him at Target Field in 2024. 4. Marco Raya RHP If Festa isn't the best pitching prospect in the organization, then it is Raya. Just 20 years old and a former prep arm, the Twins already have him at Double-A. He took his lumps for Wichita, but was incredibly young for the level and should be expected to use that experience for significant offseason development. He'll begin 2024 with the Wind Surge again, but getting to Triple-A St. Paul at 21 would be eye-opening. 3. Emmanuel Rodriguez OF One of the most exciting prospects across baseball, Rodriguez has significant power potential and his ceiling is that of a slugging corner outfielder with all-star aspirations. He posted a ridiculous .400 OBP for Cedar Rapids last year despite batting just .240, and he doesn't sacrifice plate discipline for power. A meteoric rise could happen this year at 21, but Rodriguez's future is still one to be excited about even if it takes a bit more time. 2. Brooks Lee INF Maybe the safest bet to be a big league regular for a long time across all organizations in baseball, Lee is near major league ready at this point. He's going to hit for more average than power, and can play shortstop but doesn't necessarily need to. He does everything well, and if any of the tools take another step forward, he'll end his career with more than a few all-star selections under his belt. 1. Walker Jenkins OF The fifth overall pick from the 2023 Major League Baseball Draft, Jenkins is a superstar in every sense of the word. He may outgrow centerfield as his body develops, but he should hit for average and power while remaining a strong defender and runner. The maturity here is off the charts, and the abilities could push him into future MVP discussions. A 2024 debut isn't going to happen, but all bets should be off in 2025. Follow @tlschwerz. For more from Off The Baggy, click here.

While the Minnesota Twins continue to wait in the weeds and scope out their first big move of the offseason, baseball continues to barrel toward spring training. Action hasn't come at a frenzied pace yet, but you can feel it picking up. Image courtesy of © Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports While there weren’t any huge moves over the weekend, the free-agent pool continues to be chock-full of big names. The Athletic’s top 25 options still has eight unsigned players, and the cream of that crop includes Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery, and Josh Hader. Scott Boras continues to seek a massive payday for Bellinger, who had a massive bounceback year with the Cubs after returning to a clean bill of health. Reports have suggested that the Texas Rangers would like to reunite with Montgomery, and Hader is reportedly seeking a deal better than what Edwin Díaz got from the Mets. There has been some talk of Snell being a fit for the Blue Jays, though that seems like an odd tidbit, unless they were to move an arm. Back in December, we talked about how the Twins could be a fit as a partner if Toronto was interested in either Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco, and Minnesota would net Alek Manoah in some sort of a return. Jordan Hicks Finds a Home The San Francisco Giants have been searching for a superstar for quite some time. They did come to an agreement with Jung Hoo Lee last month, but they missed out on Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa last season, and weren’t too deep in the running for Shohei Ohtani. After dealing for Robbie Ray, who is going to miss roughly half of the 2024 season, they opted to sign Jordan Hicks…for their starting rotation. Hicks has pitched in 212 major-league games over the course of a five-year career, but just eight of them have come as a starter. He has shown a lacking ability to stay healthy, and his stuff has played better out of the bullpen. His 77 2/3 career high for innings pitched came in 2018, and asking a guy with a substantial injury history to double (or more) his 65 2/3 innings from last season seems like a stretch. Maybe the Giants know something everybody else is missing. Twins Hone in on Hobie Over the weekend, the Twins signed another free-agent reliever to a minor-league deal. Hobie Harris joins the organization after making his major-league debut as a 30-year-old with the Washington Nationals last season. Darren Wolfson reported that the organization has been attempting to sign him the past couple of years now, and they finally get it done. Harris joins the likes of A.J. Alexy as veteran types brought in on minor-league deals. While neither has the 40-man roster spot like Ryan Jensen claimed, both are clearly players the organization likes. Harris posted a 2.04 ERA across 53 innings at Triple A for Milwaukee in 2022. He strikes out a lot of batters, walks a few too many, but doesn’t surrender long balls. Minnesota would love to see this work out along the lines of Danny Coulombe or Jeff Hoffman, but this time, they have to hang onto the player. Marlins Want to do What? A year after the Miami Marlins sent Pablo López and José Salas to the Minnesota Twins in exchange for second baseman Luis Arráez, they appear intent on trading him. Yes, the guy whom Kim Ng acquired and moved Jazz Chisholm to the outfield for is someone that the new regime would like to move, or at least are open to moving. Forget the fact that Arráez posted a career-best 3.4 fWAR, won a second straight batting title, and is beloved by Miami. The organization pays almost no one big dollars, and Arráez is coming into the big-dollar phase of his career. Jon Heyman noted that while the most likely players to be dealt from the Marlins are either Jesús Luzardo or Edward Cabrera, the front office is open to hearing what teams offer for Arráez. He’s got two years of team control left, but it's unlikely Miami wants to pay him the nearly $30 million he's likely to make over that term, and the sides already have a discrepancy in what the player is worth through arbitration. Getting something back before simply having to provide him a qualifying offer makes sense, but that would be a tough turnaround. Boring Mauer Weekend Maybe it was that the NFL playoff action was too much for BBWAA voters to overcome, but just two new ballots were revealed over the weekend. One of them was a three-man offering that included Adrián Beltré, Álex Rodríguez, and Manny Ramírez. No Joe Mauer was unfortunate, but that one was clearly a small-Hall ballot; so it goes. On Sunday, Mauer did get his name checked on the only ballot turned in, and Jeff Wilson’s offering had the Twins great being accompanied by seven others. Through 158 publicly revealed ballots, Mauer has been selected on 132 of them, which represents an 83.5% polling rate per Ryan Thibodaux’s tracker. He is trending toward first-ballot induction, and could challenge Kirby Puckett’s 82.1% vote. It was on Jan. 20 last year that Minnesota swung the López-for-Arráez deal, and they could again be busy this week. The Twins have yet to sort out their starting rotation, a couple of expensive veterans remain, and they did just do an interesting arbitration deal with utility player Kyle Farmer. What are you hoping to see take place in the baseball world this week? View full article

The Minnesota Twins have a few key areas that need to be addressed this offseason, and first base is among them. While they may opt to look at external options, former breakout rookie Jose Miranda could be an intriguing sleeping giant. Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Carlos Correa first played with fellow Puerto Rican Jose Miranda during the 2022 season for the Minnesota Twins. Miranda logged 125 major league games during his rookie season, and even a late slump left him with a .751 OPS and 114 OPS+. By all measures, it was a solid debut season for a prospect who had been something of a late bloomer. When the pair arrived at Twins Fest last January, Correa noted how in shape Miranda was. Looking to build on the success of his first season in the big leagues, an important offseason of work was a great thing to see him put in. Unfortunately, 2023 was essentially a failure to launch for Miranda, and he played in just 40 games before ultimately being shut down for the season. Rocco Baldelli saw the 2022 standout post a paltry .211/.263/.303 slash line, which came out to just a 56 OPS+. The strong approach at the plate had vanished, and the production took a nosedive. A shoulder issue during spring training was likely the culprit, and after spending substantial time on the injured list, Miranda underwent surgery in September to alleviate a shoulder impingement issue. With an entire offseason to return healthy, one would hope he can pick back up where the good version of himself left off. On the dirt, Minnesota has plenty of things figured out. Royce Lewis should start at third base, with Carlos Correa standing beside him at shortstop. Edouard Julien appears locked in a second base, and although he should get some acclimation at first, it’s that position where there is the most uncertainty. Alex Kirilloff has yet to show he can stay healthy throughout an entire season, and those bouts of injury have hampered his production. Miranda may find his opportunity on the opposite corner of the diamond, but it shouldn't matter much as long as there is one. In the majors, Miranda has played just under 600 innings at first base, and he logged 337 at the position on the farm. Defense has never been his calling card, but finding a way to man first base with a bit better range and instincts would go a long way toward helping out the Twins roster configuration. When right, it’s a position his bat also suits, and being a power producer in a corner spot is ideally the outcome of who he may become. Without a significant amount of adjustment to draw on from last season, it’s hard to guess how Miranda will look as he attempts to grow as a big leaguer. The success was there in his first season, but he must build on that if he wants to stick. Having Kirilloff leave the door open to playing time and batting as a right-handed talent benefits the Puerto Rican talent as he returns to the field this spring. While the Twins would probably prefer a consistent option at first base, it would be a good outcome if the combination of Kirilloff and Miranda could provide a high-level platoon with the lineup, not missing a beat regardless of which one is playing. More than a few guys are coming to spring training after undergoing offseason surgery. While Byron Buxton is unquestionably the most important of them, Miranda may wind up being the one who can provide the most unexpected value. There was a time not long ago when Miranda looked the part of a lineup mainstay, and if his fall was only health-related, getting back to form for 2024 would be something everyone within the organization would welcome. We saw a glimpse of the talent two years ago, and a new level beyond that certainly would be fun. View full article

A year ago, the Minnesota Twins got off to a slow start when it came to swiping bags, and they never exactly became a track team. With the running game more important than it's been in decades, how can they get better in that area for the year ahead? Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports A month or so into the 2023 season, Rocco Baldelli could have looked at the major-league leaderboard for stolen bases, and he wouldn’t have seen any of his players on it. Despite rules that actively encourage steals, the Minnesota Twins all but opted against participating. Pitchers faced new limits on how many times they could check on a runner by stepping off the rubber. Baserunners were given additional inches on the edges of bases, and pitch clocks provided an external countdown for when to get a jump. Still, the Twins stood pat for the first few weeks of the 2023 season. Then Willi Castro started to get run, both literally and figuratively. As Minnesota’s injuries piled up and the utility man from Detroit was more often thrust into the lineup, he found himself on base. Posting just a .278 OBP and 79 OPS+ in his final two seasons with the Tigers, it wasn’t as though Castro had many opportunities on the basepaths. Last season with the Twins, Castro put up a .339 OBP and a career-best 106 OPS+. Suddenly, he unlocked a new facet to his game. When the dust settled, Castro had become the Twins' stolen base machine. He swiped 33 bags on 38 attempts, and for a guy who routinely found himself on first base, he often advanced to scoring position singlehandedly. Unfortunately for Baldelli, Castro did virtually all of the heavy lifting, with only Michael A. Taylor generating double-digit steals across the rest of the roster. The center fielder became a free agent at the end of the season, and how the Twins will replace some of that baserunning value remains to be seen. Entering the 2024 season as the most tenured manager in the American League Central, Baldelli seems unlikely to reinvent himself as a manager. How he instructs his team has to do with the talent available to him, but a substantially enhanced aggressiveness on the basepaths doesn’t seem to be in the cards. However, Castro’s role may be mitigated in the year ahead, and someone else will need to step up. It was curious that Edouard Julien stole just three bases as a rookie for Minnesota (on three attempts). It could have been the preference of batters behind him that the youngster stay put, but the Canadian swiped 19 bags in 2022 at Double A and took 34 the year prior between two levels of Class A. He isn’t a burner, but can get a good jump and pick the right spots. Maybe a second year of comfort at that highest level has all parties involved feeling that it’s something to bring back into his bag of tricks. Fellow rookie Royce Lewis should also be expected to contribute in this category. He was successful in six of seven tries last season, and that was while coming back from knee surgery and missing time with oblique muscle issues. Lewis may not have the same top-end speed he once did, but it should still be considered a plus tool for his game. The former first-overall pick successfully swiped 85 bases across his time in the minor leagues, and while he has become a real power threat, any time a single is recorded, grabbing an extra 90 feet should be on the table. The wild card for Minnesota may be Byron Buxton. Despite never playing the outfield last year, Buxton went a perfect 9-for-9 stealing bases. In 2017, he stole 29 bases while being thrown out once. Of course, his knee issues impact his speed a bit, but there is no denying he is among the most challenging runners to throw out in all of baseball. There was a previous argument that his speed had him in scoring position at first base, but with the rule changes, getting to second before a ball is put in play may never be more accessible. If he is healthy enough to be in the field for 2024, utilizing the legs of a guy who has a career 86 stolen bases in 96 attempts should be a no-brainer. It’s not just the prominent names who can produce on the basepaths, either. Nick Gordon will be back after missing most of the season, and he can swipe bags when given the opportunity. There are also logical prospect debuts coming, in the form of Austin Martin and Brooks Lee, both of whom have havoc-wreaking potential. If Minnesota wants to employ the strategy, it should have more than enough candidates to fit the bill. Much has been made about the innings and production that Minnesota must replace from the rotation. Departures of Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Tyler Mahle are all notable. That said, it was the offense that needed help for most of the year last season, and putting more runners in scoring position should be a focal point. Twenty-two other teams stole more bases than the Twins last season, and while they don’t need to elevate into the top 10, they have enough speedsters that this is an avenue they should be exploring when it comes to increasing production. How many players would you like to see with double-digit steals for the Twins in 2024? Who do you think gets there? View full article

Think the more likely scenario is he becomes a first baseman. I don’t understand it, but talked to him some about the lack of speed usage while he was in St. Paul last year. Julien has stolen plenty of bases on the farm, but Minnesota hasn’t had him do so. I think some of that is it being quickness/instincts related. That could play in the OF from a jump perspective, but I don’t think his gap closing speed is ideal. However, the Twins have played much weirder fits in LF…Tim Beckham anyone!?

I don’t think the Twins *want* Lee to play SS, but he wouldn’t be stretched there. He could be plus-plus at both second and third. I don’t see a scenario where he goes to the OF (again, Royce would move there first), and he’d be wasted as a 1B (while also not hitting for enough power).

Ding. Ding. Ding. He's already missed a bunch of time, and you’re going to bring him along slowly to build up innings? The bullpen is top heavy. Add him to the bottom and watch him climb the ranks.

Royce would move to the OF before Lee, and that could help things in both respects.

They say that’s their plan. At this time of the offseason before he debuted, that was the plan for Jhoan Duran too. I just don’t see that coming to fruition, and if he’s healthy, Canterino can help the bullpen immediately.

That would be representative of some pretty poor planning by the Twins I’d think. I’d much rather see a Buxton/Martin combo though than Castro or Gordon in CF consistently.

Each year, the Minnesota Twins' major-league roster is supplemented by prospect talent throughout the season. Last year, many of those players turned into regulars. Who could follow in their footsteps in 2024? Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports This piece has evolved over the years, but dating back to Seth Stohs’s yearly Twins Prospect Handbook, trying to pin which prospects debut in which months has been a fun practice. While top prospects like Royce Lewis will always draw the eyes, players like Edouard Julien or Kody Funderburk sometimes make the most surprising impact. Rocco Baldelli saw plenty of debuts a year ago, and with the Twins relying heavily on their internal depth for 2024, it stands to reason that a lot of heavy lifting will be asked of new names. We saw only Brent Headrick and Jordan Balazovic from the 2023 list, but a couple of those names should be near-locks to show up in 2024. Here’s a month-by-month look at one player who could come up and help the Twins in the year ahead: April: Matt Canterino I had Canterino debuting in October last year, which didn’t come to fruition. He had Tommy John surgery in August of 2022, and he didn’t make any rehab appearances last season. The former Rice Owl has ramped up to full speed and will come into spring training on the 40-man roster. The Twins have said they plan to use him as a starter, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he goes down the Jhoan Durán path. The stuff has always been legit, and his ability to blow the ball past hitters is impressive. Canterino hasn’t pitched above Double A, but that is nearly identical to the scenario that played out with Minnesota’s now-closer. The Opening Day roster might be a stretch, but the next man up in relief could work. May: Austin Martin Recycled candidate number two from last year, I had Martin showing up in September. It’s not surprising he would be on this list early in 2024, because there could have been real consideration for a debut down the stretch last season. Byron Buxton’s health remains a question mark, and although the Twins would like to see him out there daily, having another option is necessary. The only internal candidates on the 26-man roster are Willi Castro and Nick Gordon. Neither is an ideal fit, and Martin’s best position is center field. He dealt with an injury to start the year but posted a .293/.413/.451 slash line across his final 48 games. As a speed threat with on-base abilities and strong defense, he should find his way from one twin city to the other soon. June: Yunior Severino The Twins signed Severino in 2018, after the Braves cheating scandal with international prospects removed him and Kevin Maitan from their organization. It’s been a slow burn for the Dominican native, but he followed up a strong 2022 with an impressive 2023. Severino swings and misses a ton, but the power is real and should be expected to translate to the highest level. Baldelli’s roster has significant uncertainty at first base, with neither Alex Kirilloff nor Jose Miranda being a given to keep the job. Severino isn’t a good defender, but he’s not a complete hack. I’d assume the Twins will have him work almost exclusively at the position to start the year in St. Paul, and as he gets his feet under him there, he should become an option for the big-league club. July: Brooks Lee When the Twins' top prospect debuts is probably less about his production than the needs of the major-league roster. Lewis should be expected to start at third, with Carlos Correa at shortstop and Julien at second base. That leaves no room for Lee at the moment. If and when any of them go down, Lee will have had an additional opportunity to prove his readiness. The .731 OPS at St. Paul last year isn’t great, but it was just a 38-game sample, and he started figuring things out as his time at Triple A got longer. Over the final 16 games he played for the Saints, Lee owned an .881 OPS and had a 10-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 68 plate appearances. He’s a strong fielder no matter where the Twins put him, and while the ceiling may not be an MVP talent, he will be a regular for a long time. August: David Festa Depending on the prospect list you consult, Festa is either the Twins' best pitching prospect, or one of the next couple on that list. He’s undoubtedly the one who is closest to making their major-league debut, and getting to Triple-A St. Paul for three starts last season sets him up nicely for 2024. Festa has always walked a few more batters than you would like to see from a starter, but he can get strikeouts in bunches and racked up 15 in his first 12 1/3 innings at Triple A. The Twins' starting rotation depth isn’t what it was last year after the departures of Kenta Maeda and Sonny Gray. Getting Chris Paddack back is a boost, but they need him to stay healthy behind Pablo López. What the Twins do to round out their rotation should clarify the picture for Festa, but he also can force the organization’s hand with a strong couple of months for the Saints. September: Cory Lewis This would undoubtedly be a meteoric rise for a ninth-round pick. Still, Lewis has dominated at each stop he has made since joining the organization and has already been promoted aggressively. Working 101 1/3 innings last year between two levels of Class A, Lewis posted a 2.49 ERA and a 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He doesn’t walk many, and batters struggle to put together hits against him, let alone hit the long ball. His repertoire is interesting, because it features a knuckleball but isn't dominated or defined by that offering. Lewis keeps hitters off-balance by mixing his offerings. If he starts the year at Double A, he should have a chance at finding himself on the CHS Field mound before the season is over, and another year like 2023 would put him on the map for a late-season Twins call-up. October: Emmanuel Rodriguez If Lewis was an aggressive pick for September, then Rodriguez takes it to a new level in October. One of the Twins' best prospects (and potentially among those deemed untouchable in a trade), the toolsy outfielder could mature into something extraordinary. He will only be 21 this season, and a debut that quick would be shocking. However, health has been the only thing that has held him back. Playing in 99 games last year, E-Rod had an .863 OPS for Cedar Rapids, including a gaudy .400 OBP. He’s a big-time power hitter who doesn’t miss often, and his eye at the plate is incredible. There is enough speed to steal some bases, and while he projects more as a corner type, that could be a need if Max Kepler is moved or Matt Wallner doesn’t stick. I wouldn’t bet heavily on Rodriguez wearing a Twins uniform this season (outside of spring training), but I wouldn’t bet against it either. What prospects are you most looking forward to seeing debut for Minnesota in 2024? Who do you think has a chance to be a surprise and help the team significantly, as Julien did a year ago? View full article

I think the Twins wisely made that bet, and I'd worry even more about 2025 and 2026 Gray. That said, when Giolito, Wacha, and Lugo are getting what they got, $25M for Gray is hardly crazy. Just goes to show how messed up FA with early earnings stifled.

Hey, Mahle was a human that existed haha!

While the Twins have been hesitant to dive fully into the MLB offseason, there was some notable action over the weekend. With just over a month until pitchers and catchers report, teams continue to work on their 2024 plans. Image courtesy of © Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports This weekend saw a couple of sizable trades and a few more free agents come off the board. So far, Minnesota has agreed to just a single major-league deal, and that came in under $1 million. There are more than a few storylines worth catching up on, however. Twins Address the Pen While the largest hole for Rocco Baldelli’s club is arguably the starting rotation, they have focused on the bullpen to this point in free agency. Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Tyler Mahle’s production must be made up, but so far, the only notable arms acquired have included Josh Staumont, A.J. Alexy, and the recently claimed Ryan Jensen. Only Staumont’s deal is guaranteed, and while the Twins don’t yet have a full 40-man roster, they could look to keep Jensen around but pass him through waivers. Since Derek Falvey took over, the Twins have been highly conservative when it comes to adding relievers. None has been given a larger deal than Addison Reed’s $16.75 million over two years, and often the group is constructed of one-year projects and minor-league signings. Finding another Brock Stewart for 2024 would be great, but the organization can’t give away another Danny Coulombe or Jeff Hoffman. Starting Pitchers on the Move A couple of big-name starting pitchers found new homes over the weekend. First, Robbie Ray went to the San Francisco Giants, in exchange for both Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafani. It seems plausible that the Mariners will flip DeSclafani, which would finalize their transition to youth in the rotation. While Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert are all locks, Bryce Miller, Emerson Hancock, and Bryan Woo are virtually ready as well. Ray gives the Giants an option sometime mid-year, but he is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery. The New York Mets decided to add Sean Manaea, in an effort to fill out their rotation. Steve Cohen seemed to indicate last season in discussions with Max Scherzer that the organization was going for a reset in 2024. They also parted with Justin Verlander, and need to figure out a direction before spending big again. Manaea represents a nice upside candidate, but two years and $28 million for a guy that has a 4.73 and 4.26 FIP over the past two seasons is a hefty burden. Manaea also secured the right to opt out of the deal after 2024, should he finally position himself for the huge payday that has eluded him in his first two forays into free agency. Dodgers Keep Spending After inking Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto to huge free agent contracts and trading for Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles was not done. Sure, they won 100 games last year, but they came into the offseason as a flawed team with plenty of holes. Needing to find a power bat in the outfield, they were a good fit for free agent Teoscar Hern'andez. Late Sunday night, the Dodgers got the deal done and handed out $23.5 million on a one-year deal. Hernandez had something of a down year in 2023 posting just a 106 OPS+, but he owned a 125 OPS+ from 2019-2022. Los Angeles gets a right-handed slugger who should easily make up for the loss of J.D. Martinez, and also extend a lineup that felt top-heavy before now. How the removal of a corner outfield option from the market helps Minnesota position Max Kepler in potential trades remains to be seen, but it can’t hurt if they want to go down that path. Mauer Continues Positive Trend Despite initially seeming unlikely to be a first ballot Hall of Famer, Joe Mauer has polled well thus far during his first year on the ballot. Through 125 revealed votes from the Baseball Writers Association of America, he sits at 81.6% of the vote, according to Ryan Thibodaux's tracker. With an estimated total ballot tally just south of 400, he’ll need to sustain this momentum to stay above the 75% mark. Jason Sardell, who has often done a great job of predicting who will be enshrined when the dust settles based on early numbers, has Mauer getting enshrined through 96 percent of the simulations he runs. While Todd Helton and Mauer are evenly supported through votes currently made public, Sardell explains the Twins' ex-catcher's advantage thusly: “It's mostly because Mauer is doing much better than Helton with "Small Hall" voters. And voters like that are over-represented in the remaining set of ballots.” We are just a few weeks away from Twins Fest (and the Twins Daily Winter Meltdown). While those dates aren’t necessarily reflective of when Minnesota must do something, it stands to reason they may want to push more of their offseason chips toward the middle. Would you have wanted the Twins to sign Hernández, given his surprisingly reasonable price tag? Was Manaea high on your list? Should Mauer be in the Hall of Fame? Join the conversation. View full article

Last year, the highlight of Twins baseball was certainly the October postseason atmosphere. While that will never be recreated in April, the organization is looking to a closer facsimile of it. New seating plans are coming in 2024, and that means the experience changes for fans. Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports At the beginning of December, KARE 11 reported that the Twins would be selling tickets only for the main bowl of the ballpark for April games this year. Those sections include the entirety of the 100 level, as well as 229-240 and 321-334. Season tickets are obviously sold throughout the ballpark, but fans with tickets in the terrace sections will be automatically upgraded for the final 10 games in April. In talking with the Twins' director of business communications Matt Hodson, the focus is enhancing the fan experience. If you’ve been to the ballpark in April, you are aware that both the weather and the attendance can be spotty. The upper levels of Target Field are often barren, and some of the concession stands remain closed. Rather than spreading fans throughout the ballpark, bringing everyone in attendance together can elevate the experience for those watching and playing alike. Selling only main bowl tickets does raise the minimum threshold to get into the ballpark, but reasonable options still exist. “Lower-level tickets are not tiered, but if you’re still just looking to find out how you can get in at the lowest price ticket, the Home Run Deck, Terrace, and Grandstand are all still open. There still is a lot of affordability in that sense,” Hodson said. Minnesota uses dynamic pricing. Tickets for the Chicago White Sox series at the end of April will still be considerably cheaper than equivalent ones for the Detroit Tigers series in July. This isn’t going to be an Oakland Athletics situation; we won’t see tarps around Target Field. This is a logistical move, and it is one that should have a positive impact on the ballpark experience. Hodson noted the Carly Pearce postgame concert last season, where 16-18,000 fans filled the stadium. “You bring everybody down after (the game) and the energy picks up. Same number of people, but everyone is compact and enjoying the experience together. It made for a much more lively environment. We thought, let’s try to replicate that for baseball." If the demand for the entirety of the ballpark is there, then Minnesota will sell the tickets and have those areas open. From an aesthetic perspective, the view could be impacted for the better on broadcasts as well. With just sections 301-327 unsold, the upper levels behind the plate will be the only areas where fans are not present. More bodies filling visible parts of the stadium presents nicely on whatever eventual home the Twins television offering is held. Surely, the Twins would love to see the demand warrant the entirety of the ballpark being open. While the games could be impacted by cooler temperatures, the Los Angeles Dodgers bring their billion-dollar spending spree to town during the stretch of 10 games for which Minnesota is imposing this change. “We are certainly keeping our eye on it (the Dodgers series). Seeing one billion dollars thrown about has even caught the eyes of some casual fans. That’s certainly one that we have earmarked to see how it’s trending as Twins Fest and spring training starts.” Single game tickets won’t be the only way to experience Twins baseball in April and beyond this year, either. Twins Pass is returning, and the details are being finalized. It will return prior to the season, although the exact on-sale date is not yet known. Twins Pass will not be impacted by the closing of certain sections. All publicly accessible parts of the stadium remain open, and while you don’t have a seat guarantee, it remains a great economical option to take in games. Hand it to the Twins for looking to recapture October excitement as soon as possible this season. “This is really to try and say to the season ticket holders who are here more often than not, to somebody who is coming once, how do we make that April environment the best it can be? You can’t replicate October, or some of the big summer games, but we thought for a year let’s try this out and see if everyone has a better time.” As with select concession stands being closed in the upper levels early on in the season, the Twins also stand to save some dollars by staffing a few less ushers and stadium workers. With sections 302 through 327 averaging right around 270 seats apiece, and 301 checking in at about 50 seats less, there is a substantial amount of real estate unused. Decreasing the Target Field capacity by about 7,000 openings, it will be interesting to see how the supply and demand impacts play out across markets. The full capacity for Minnesota's home sits at just above 35,500. The opening series against Cleveland will be a full ballpark for the Twins, and Minnesota’s hope would be that a strong atmosphere continues to materialize across a big series with the Dodgers and seven more divisional matchups split between Detroit and Chicago. Fans, meanwhile, will have to decide how much they trust the organization's motives for what will also be a cost-saving measure. View full article