THE DFC

Next year is really interesting, as it really should be a “transition to the kids” year, but our FO is acting like it wants to win…or at least saying it. As they say, actions speak louder than words, and this roster construction certainly requires action. Assuming Simmons is gone and Royce Lewis isn’t ready to step in on day 1, the SS position is a big question mark. And, then you’ve got a fascinating positional wave of at least 11 guys competing for 6 non C/SS/P spots: Donaldson, Polanco, Buxton, Arraez, Kepler, Sano Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker, Miranda, Austin Martin Then, as many have mentioned above, you’ve got to hold a rotation spot for Ober. Ideally, big Mike is back, too. After that, you’ve got a huge wave of 7 high upside arms in Ryan, Duran, Balazovic, Woods-Richardson, Strotman, Colina and Winder that should all get a shot next year. You’ve also got Dobnak, Thorpe, Jax and Smeltzer as guys that have shown rotation ability. To me, this picture means you don’t go and sign FAs, or at least not more than 1. You have to deal the excess, particularly in position players, for arms. That can go in two directions - tap into the vet grouping for even more high upside arms (building for 23/24). Or, tap into the young kids for established arms (a real win-now decision). That decision is the most interesting to me and will dictate if the FO truly wants to win now, or if they’re saying that politically and really building for 23/24. Now, if we just don’t deal anyone and sign more Happ/Shoemaker types that simultaneously don’t help us win and block the wave of guys listed above, this FO will need to be booted.

Yea, wouldn't hurt to have blue chips like Duran, Balazovic and a healthy Graterol (among other interesting options) steps away from the big club to start the 2020 season...

How about getting Duran up to AA? He's been eviscerating A+ as of late, and his YTD numbers are excellent, as well.

Incorrect

Lewis is 100/100 with athleticism and pedigree. He's trying to make significant mechanical adjustments in a league where he's still super young. He's also coming off one of the worst injuries for a young hitter (oblique strain). This is the time the Twins coaches need to earn their $$$. He's approaching a fork in the road, and they need to ensure he takes the right path. I have a feeling Holland, who we just drafted, will have a similar situation given his mechanics are even substantially worse. Let's hope our hitting experts in the minors can deliver to the degree our guys at the big club have.

Huh? Royce literally turns 20 today.

I'm not so much worried about Nick Gordon acclimating to AAA. He tends to semi-slowly figure each league out. I'm more so worried about him emulating Brian Dozier's maddening 1st Half/2nd Half splits! 2016 First Half OPS: .751 Second Half OPS: .696 2017 First Half OPS: .880 Second Half OPS: .609 2018 First Half OPS: .906 Second Half OPS: .591 It's amazing how he continually runs out of gas half way through the year. Is it conditioning? Does he lose his form? Can he not handle hot temperatures? What is it?

All I know is that these guys May face a Kohl group of Stephen better Slegers in the Majors, so I hope we do more than a Littell to figure out something to make Enns meet.

I know the big league rotation for the Twins isn't exactly one that triggers much excitement going into this year, but I think it's pretty easy to be bullish with respect to where our pitching staff could end up by mid-season next year. With some good luck with trajectories and health, we could see a mid-2018 rotation something like: 1. Romero 2. Berrios 3. Free Agent investment 4. Gonsalves 5. May/Mejia/Stewart/Duffey/Jay Back that up with Chargois, Burdi and, potentially, Jay hopefully evolving into upper, upper echelon flame-throwing relievers, and that projects to be nasty. (I know there are other quality RP prospects in the pipe, of course.) Throw in the "Falvey factor," and I'm cautiously optimistic about where the pitching staff is headed for the first time in a very long time.

I 100% agree with this, and I think this is the key. Any move in an attempt to win 90 games next year at the expense of the 2018 - 2022 Twins is a silly one. We need to focus next on getting lots of the young, high-upside arms either up on the big league roster or in the right positions for success. The latter maybe being most important. Here's how that breaks down: I'm very excited to likely see Trevor May in the rotation next year. Conversely, I want see Duffey in the pen. As noted on here, I never got May converting from a starter to reliever, and Duffey from a reliever to a starter. May has obvious back troubles from pitching frequently. Duffey has been killer in relief, has only two plus pitches and struggles after a round through the line-up. How isn't this switch obvious?Given the success of an Andrew Miller, why not move Tyler Jay back to the pen and have him ready for the big league squad in 2017? A healthy Burdi, a relaxed Chargois, a converted Duffey and a fired up Tyler Jay seem like a devastating late-inning bullpen grouping in the making. Throw in flamethrowers Jake Reed, Melotakis and Light and try out Hildenberger by the end of the year to go along with Taylor Rodgers, and that's a lot of velocity and upside in the pen that needs to be evaluated and done so quickly. As long as Berrios, Gonsalves, May and Mejia get extensive looks next year in the rotation, I'm happy. Hopefully, Felix Jorge and Kohl Stewart force their way into that conversation by mid-season, as well. Given the above evaluation needs to take place, I see these moves as musts: Let's swing Dozier for a young, ace-upside pitcher to join the aforementioned group of 4-6 upside arms that get looks in the rotation this year. The market will be there.Let's move Santana for max value at catcher or low-level, high upside starting pitching.Let's get what we can for Gibson and take it. Let's let Santiago walk or bring him in with a very, very short leash. Again, let's cut bait anyone above 27 in the bullpen.Have slick-fielding Engelb Vielma man SS duties with Escobar until Nick Gordon's ready to take over. Find a way to play Mauer less and audition Vargas, Park, Walker, etc. more. Evaluate appropriately from there. Trust Falvey after he's had time to observe, weigh, contemplate, negotiate, etc. throughout the year.

Don't understand this one bit. A 24-year-old with a quality minor league track record that has a 120 tOPS+ since being called back up, is one of the better left fielders defensively this season and is an excellent base runner should be a 4th outfielder? How about we play him for the next 3 years in a row, so he learns from his mistakes and becomes a smart player when he hits his physical prime versus just writing him off? This cut-throat mentality for our sub 26-year-old high-level prospects is frankly dumbfounding to me.

He mentions it a couple times on the front-end of his podcast here: http://www.1500espn.com/the-scoop-2/2016/08/the-scoop-twins-gm-update-plus-rob-antony-and-cole-aldrich-join-ep-33/ Both before and after the Antony interview.

Assuming Santana is around next year, it's going to be an interesting rotation battle. Molitor has said, per Doogie, that May's going back into the rotation for next year. I have no idea what to make of Gibson, Santiago or Duffey at this point (I wish Duffey would go to the pen, personally). I think Berrios, Mejia and Gonsalves all deserve a shot, too. Assuming by the end of the year we move Santana, I'm actually excited about the prospects of: Berrios Mejia Gonsalves May With these guys battling for the 5th spot: Stewart/Jay/Romero Am I nuts?

Again, insanely odd, ass-backwards logic from the FO. On what planet is Duffey the guy that starts and May is the guy in the bullpen? The swap is incredibly obvious. No reason to "dump" Duff. Just use him as he should be used--in the pen with Chargois again.

I'm 32 years old, and I've been a pretty decent Twins, Vikings and Timberwolves fan for as long as I remember. I've never disliked a team or, more importantly, a leadership group more than this. Pat Dean? Really... Neil Ramirez? Really... We give Chargois one outing and demote him, and then DFA Arcia in favor of Dean, Ramirez, Park, Santana etc., etc. We'll probably demote Kepler when Sano comes back. First time in my life that I'm tuning out the Twins for the rest of the season, and it's not even 4th of July yet. This will probably get buried because it's on the 6th page of the game thread, but the Pohlads should sadly realize that I'm the one that probably pays the most attention to the Twins of everyone I know...and this is my sentiment.

Twins hitters have historically broken out around 25-27. Hrbek, Mauer and Morneau are the big exceptions, but if you look at Puckett, Hunter, Cuddyer, Gomez, Kubel, Dozier, Jones, Koskie, etc., it's around 25-26 when they really "get it" and play like big leaguers. You're seeing this right now with Arcia, as he just turned 25 and is looking like a quality power bat. I expect Sano to be more in the Hrbek/Mauer/Morneau class, but outside of that we've got some waiting to do with the following: Buxton - 22 Rosario - 24 Kepler - 23 Polanco - 23 in the summer Gordon - 20...quite aways a way. On the flip side, our quality starters all seem to take off at 23. This holds true for Radke, Santana, Garza, Baker, etc. For me, this is all the more reason to move Meyer and May into the rotation now, but it also dictates that we should be aggressive with our super talented group in Fort Myers right now: Gonsalves: 21 Stewart: 21 Jorge: 22 Jay: 22 So, what does this mean? I would start clearing the way this June or July. It's time to swing deals, jettisoning Plouffe, Dozier, Suzuki and maybe even Park given that he's 29 and could probably net massive value with the way he's hitting. Same things with the rotation. It's time to swing Hughes, Gibson, Santana and Nolasco, give May and Meyer their shots now, and then work in Gonsalves and Stewart next summer, ideally. Follow the lead of the Wolves and the Vikings. Roll with the youth & talent versus the worst team in the MLB led by players in their respective primes. We know what they net, and it's not good. Oh, and it wouldn't hurt to give Burdi, Chargois, Melotakis, Hildenburger, Rodgers, etc., etc. a shot in the pen over the next 4 months either...unless you're into masochism and the current bullpen.

You could also point out that Greg Maddux as a 20-year-old had a K/BB ratio of 2.33 and K/9 of 4.9. Let's try to relax everyone.

All of those calling for more trades, this is why we need to stop. Ryan is going to ruin the team with garbage vet players, and we're going to give up the farm. Hu for this garbage? Really?

Don't look now, but Hicks's slash line for July is .292/.397/.500. Every way up, it has taken Hicks awhile to acclimate before producing. It shouldn't be that surprising that it has taken extra long for him to acclimate to the highest level on the planet. Let's hope this is Hicks can settle in to be consistently in the hemisphere of this production moving forward.

I'm well aware of the law of averages with respect to pitching prospects, so what you both say is definitely true. That being said, I challenge any of us to name a wave of talent in pitching all the same age that we've had in our minor league system that matches this one. When you throw in Thorpe and Stewart, it's absurd. I tend to agree that we'll probably only get 2 premiere starters out of the grouping, but the help we could get in the bullpen could be absolutely vital to top tier success.

How about this grouping? J.O. Berrios Stephen Gonsalves Chih-Wei Hu Felix Jorge Randy Rosario Yorman Landa Tyler Jay That pipeline of young pitching talent is ridiculous (not to mention Kohl Stewart is 20 and Lewis Thorpe is 19). It will be lots of fun in the next 2 years to watch this wave roll in. The idea that these 9 guys could roll in while Gibson, Meyer, May, Burdi, Rodgers are all under 30 is absolutely nuts. And, to think, we're all excited about the position players...

Nice post. I think it's simple. You don't sell low and you do sell high. Despite the expectation for attrition with some of the key prospects, I think it's obvious that guys like Arcia and Vargas are performing below expectations. Whereas someone like Adam Brett Walker, on the other hand, seems to be outperforming beyond reason. A similar argument could probably be made for Kepler, but I think given his versatility, he's worth holding onto and should get promoted to AAA as quickly as possible. As far as position players go, you should sell high and Plouffe and Pelfrey (just like we should have sold high on Suzuki last year). They're both aged beyond the waive of prospects that will give as a shot at being contenders in reality (versus the anomaly that is this season), and they both have significant value for veteran contending teams. So, trade Plouffe, Walker and Pelfrey in any combination for bullpen or catcher support (you're not going to get a SS prospect better than Polanco for that combination). Once Plouffe is moved, you swing Sano over 3B. Hicks and Arcia have perfectly complimentary LHP/RHP splits, so once Buxton is back, move Hunter to DH and Hicks/Arcia platoon in RF. While Buxton is out, bring up Arcia for full-time DH and keep Hicks in CF and Hunter in RF. Keep Kepler waiting in the wings for any injuries in the OF.

Ideally, you have Rosario-Buxton-Kepler in the OF. Hicks backs them up. Sano to 3B, Vargas to 1B and Arcia as the DH. Move Plouffe and Pelfrey while they're hot commodities and start this youth movement. It's obviously time. Unfortunately, the part about the Mauer situation that irks me the most that is rarely discussed is that it's getting to become a pretty big bummer that one of Kepler, Arcia or Vargas is likely going to be traded all because Mauer has become such a non-productive, non-tradeable disaster. Mark my words: if we move Arcia just because we're stuck with Mauer, it's going to sting a lot in 3-4 years. Maybe not quite at a Carlos Gomez/David Ortiz level, but it could definitely be close.

If Kepler is starting to emerge as a beast prospect, things are getting very interesting with Hicks, Rosario, Arcia already in the bigs and Kepler and Buxton knocking on the door. Walker and Harrison aren't exactly slouches either... Then throw in Sano and Polanco when we already have Plouffe, Dozier and Santana and factor in that our team is actually having success in the bigs, and you've got the beginnings of some very interesting decisions for Terry Ryan starting in about a month.

"If he stagnates, Twins fans will move on to look for someone else to be their power-hitting right fielder-- Adam Brett Walker anyone?" Really? We're talking about this already? Morneau, Hunter, Cuddyer, Gomez, Dozier all had their break-out season between ages 25-27 (full-season in Morneau's case). Next year is not a big year for Arcia. It's a prime learning and development year. There should be zero reason to think of platooning him or anything silly. He needs tons of at-bats, and there's no other way around it. More importantly, he especially needs at-bats against lefties to even out those splits...not to hit the bench. Along the way, there are going to be lots of moments that aren't pretty, but this kid has already proven major MLB power, had an .800+ OPS in the 2nd half of the year and has had absurd success at all levels in the minors. The idea that Adam Walker (maybe half the prospect of Arcia and only 5 months younger) or any other minor league prospect in the system outside of Buxton should challenge Arcia in the next 3 years is really difficult for me to even entertain.