THE DFC

Love the breakdown. You and I see things exactly eye-to-eye.

The farm system has really improved since 2009. Wow. No kidding. It's not really hard to understand why we've been so brutal in recent years when you look at these lists and couple that with the laughable Billy Smith trade record. As John mentioned, it'll be interesting to compare around 05 when Morneau and Cuddyer were cutting their teeth in the big leagues and Mauer and Kubel were so highly regarded with Arcia and Hicks in the bigs and Sano, Rosario, Vargas, Buxton, Kepler and Harrison not far behind. I think the 05 group had the higher ceilings with more sure-fire answers, but this upcoming group certainly has more depth and potential upside. Let's hope we can keep Sano, Rosario and Harrison in the infield, as a few have mentioned. Things would, of course, get really interesting if Berrios turns out to be a full-blown ace in the making. We'll see, but we all have to be very optimistic, albeit cautiously, after his showing in E-town this year.

I have to say that I'm starting to get excited about our farm system. How much better is that list than what we've been used to in the last 3-4 years? Call me crazy, but I think all 10 of those guys have star potential.

Yep. To build on this, I'm not sure why people are so short-sighted as to say, "he's a steal at his current value, so we should keep him (Willingham)." Listen, everyone was upset during the years of first-round exits. We all said we want to contend for a title and not settle for above-average. Holding onto guys like Willingham and Span while they're at max value and the Twins have no shot at competing for anything is exactly how you create perennially above-average teams that are pretenders and not contenders. It's really simple--you're a "buyer" when you've got a chance to contend, have excess wealth and you're willing to mortgage the short-term for the long-term. You're a "seller" when you have no chance to contend but have short-term pieces of value that can be swapped for potentially long-term pieces of value. Considering where this team is in the standings and how major of an overhaul this rotation needs for us to get into contention (a 2-3 year project, if you live in reality), who do you think we are--buyers or sellers? In 2015, when the Twins are rolling out, say, Mauer, Plouffe, Michael, Rosario, Parmelee, Revere, Hicks, Arcia, Sano, and we still have Buxton, Kepler, Harrison, Goodrum, Polanco, etc. and the next two years of high draft picks in the system, that's when I want to see us evolve into buyers. In the meantime, we should move Willingham, Span and anyone other vets that are relatively expensive for rotation prospects that can come up with the wave of young position players listed above.

If anything, I think it becomes more important to move Morneau, Willingham and Span. Willingham and Span are excellent players, but the truth is that our dearth of starting pitching extends throughout the minor league system; whereas our outfield depth is quite a bit stronger. Already in New Britian, we have Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Joe Benson and Rene Tosoni as interesting (but flawed) OF prospects. Now, if we could get more for, say, Hicks, Arcia, Revere or Benson than Willingham or Span, I'd be all for it. I think we all know that's not possible, and something in the OF has to give because there's a blatant OF jog jam on the horizon. To me, ultimately, the point is to win a championship--not to get good enough for a long string of first round exits again. To do that, we need to be strong all over the board. The way to do that from my perspective is to balance resources to create a perfect storm. Simply signing a pretty solid starter and creating a huge OF traffic jam in the minor league system while relying on Diamond, Gibson, Hendriks, Wimmers and Bromberg to make the rotation title-worthy just seems unlikely. Now, if Span and Willingham could net two high-end starting prospects, I'd feel a lot stronger about getting that starting rotation where it needs to be and shooting for Revere to replace Span's production and for one of Benson/Hicks/Arcia to step up and replace Willingham isn't completely outlandish. Move Morneau, and use all of our newly freed up money to sign a top-end pitcher ace. Then, throw in Diamond, Gibson, Hendriks, Wimmers, Bromberg and two top-end pitching prospects acquired via trade to make the rotation come together. Roll with Revere, Hicks, Benson, Arcia, Tosoni in the outfield. Bank on Plouffe, Dozier, Rosario, Sano and others in the infield (Michael, Santana, Beresford, etc.). Throw in Waldrop, Guerra, Gutierrez, Oliveros, Slama, Robertson and a few others in the mix in the bullpen, and all of the sudden 2014 looks really interesting. If Rosario and Sano aren't ready yet, we definitely have enough money to fill-in their positions with solid vets on short-terms contracts. To me, this makes a lot more sense than keeping Wilingham and Span around, and we don't have to wait until 2018 to be great.

SP - FA (Shiels/Gruenke), Appel, Gibson, Hendriks, Bromberg RP - Perkins, Duensing, Waldrop, Slama, Gutierrez, Oliveros, Guerra DH - Sano C - Doumit 1B - Mauer 2B - Rosario SS - Dozier 3B - FA/Sano/Dozier (depending on Michael/Santana) LF - Willingham CF - Hicks RF - Arcia

Well, I hope that most of us are considering what options can we exercise to get Valencia going. If anyone is full-on ready to give up on him, they're crazy. However, with someone with an attitude like Valencia's that is continually making the same mental mistakes, you have to consider that a significant event is likely necessary to shock him out of his complacency. I think for his sake, I'd send him down to Rochester until at least July. I'd tell him he's not coming back until his defense is solid, and he starts to take major-league at-bats. With a guy like Valencia, I don't think the patient approach works. He's certainly not lacking in confidence and just needs "to figure it out." I think he thinks he's awesome and will just "get there" by magic--not a good philosophy.

Yep, you absolutely have to love Sano's improved eye at the plate. He's already drawn nearly half as many walks as he drew in his 66 game season last year. I've heard that he has a little bit of Pedro Cerrano disease in that he's mashing every fastball he sees but struggles with the curve. However, given the hand-eye coordination it'd have to take to basically hit a homer every other game in a league that he's 3 years young for, I'm not too worried. Anyone with for in-depth and/or insider information have any more information on his approach with breaking balls? I've also heard his defense has been stellar at third? Any additional info here? Hopefully, he can close the season with a strong showing at Fort Myers, spend 2013 at New Britain and force a Fall call-up.

How does Valencia even take at-bats that are that awful? It's not like Garcia's up there throwing like Justin Verlander...

#4 on the board today. What a beast.

You throw Hendriks to the fire and cross your fingers that he can handle it. If he proves he's not ready, you give Swarzak then Diamond shots to prove themselves. Swarzak and Diamond are really at the sink or swim point in their careers as potential starters. They'll likely sink, but unlike almost anyone else in AAA or in the Twins' pen, they at least have a chance to swim. I'd let them ride out the rest of the season to see if at least one of the two can figure it out. It's not like we have a lot to lose. As VodkaDave pointed out above, Perkins and Duensing need to stay in the pen. They're very good options there. Their roles are set. Don't mess with them.

Amazing first post.

I disagree vehemently. You always go BPA and figure it out later. It just depends on who is BPA on their list. If Buxton is that guy, you trust your scouts and pull the trigger. There are solid to great major league pitchers available every year, and they can be had with the right set of prospects. We just need to be a lot more aggressive in these situations and a lot smarter (no Ramos for Capps garbage) when they present themselves. If Benson, Hicks, Arcia and Morales are all good to great and Buxton is shooting up the minors and dominating at every level, you cannot tell me we couldn't move 2 of them for some serious pitching value. Heck, we're probably better off if the pitchers are developed outside of the organization given our recent results.

Thanks for the responses, guys. This is a great board. Reusse wrote a column today about the lack of impact players from recent Twins drafts. While his breakdown was fairly accurate, I have to say that the potential of the 2015 team potentially featuring Benson, Hicks, Arcia, Morales, Sano, and Rosario with Mauer hopefully still in his prime are very intriguing. Those are six prospects with a lot of tools, lot of upside and every has really, really produced (outside of Hicks and Morales, to some degree). Throw in big FA splashes at 1B/DH and a true ace, and that team could be perennially dominant. Yes, there are three full seasons of baseball to play in the meantime and a million different variables, but the outlook is significantly better than a lot of the doom-and-gloom I've seen/heard/read regarding the Twins. As I said above in the breakdown, we could even have a strong season this season if Valencia and Parmelee hold their own, Mauer & Morneau are 75% of what they used to be, position players perform at reasonable expectations and if Frankie and Blackburn remain hot. Yea, that's a lot to go right, but we've seen this team perform way beyond these types of expectations before. Who knows? Maybe I'm a homer, but I'm excited to get some of those young players together through the system in an effort to recreate a superior version of the early/mid-2000s teams. Hopefully, some of those steps begin this year with Valencia, Dozier, Parmelee, Hendricks, Benson, etc.

I put this together in a couple minutes earlier today. I'm sure some of the minute details are off. I'm sure some of you have some additional prospects that you feel should be in the picture. However, I think it's a nice snapshot of this team over the next four years. Basically, for all of the worries about this team and for the low ranking of our farm system, I think we'll actually be pretty solid into 2015 with this likely being our worst season. I think we have some pretty solid depth emerging. http://i41.tinypic.com/291ox15.jpg Looking at this, the keys to long-term success in my mind would be: -Acquiring a long-term ace or signing Liriano long-term if he happens to emerge as that person -Exchanging excessive wealth of OF talent in the next year or two for SP depth. I'm particularly happy we have Ryan in charge to do this verses Billy Smith. We're going to have to take some risks here, and I hope we realize it. 2013-2015 is going to create a massive cluster in the OF. We'll have Span, Revere, Benson, Hicks, Willingham, Morales, Plouffe and Arcia all at the MLB or knocking at the door. All 8 guys have varying degrees of upside and serious moves are going to need to be made here. It's a position of strength to hopefully help strengthen the corners and starting pitching, but Ryan is going to be forced to make some serious long-term bets here. -Mauer needs to play at least at 75% of his contract level for the next four years because he's really preventing us from acquiring a true impact player at 1B/3B/DH as would be optimal. As a result, we're going to have to heavily lean on Valencia and Parmelee to be solid players over the next couple years. They have the talent, and I hope they get there. However, I'm not convinced. -We're going to have to have Levi Michael live up to the hype or for Luke Hughes or Alexi Casilla to become solid MLB starters to pair with Dozier and shore up that long-term middle infield.