Jamie Cameron

The Twins are expected to sign #35 international free agent prospect Yilber Herrera next week. He's been compared to fellow Twin Jorge Polanco. Read about this potential Minnesota Twins Venezuelan addition. The Twins have a type when it comes to international free agents. The majority of players signed by Minnesota profile as athletic shortstops or centerfielders with quick hands and strong hit tools who need to grow into their bodies to achieve their power potential. Yilber Herrera is the former of these two profiles. The 16-year-old Venezuelan is ranked as the #35 international free agent overall. If you want a professional player comp, MLB Pipeline likens Herrera to a young Jorge Polanco based on his frame and overall athleticism, which could allow him to move quickly through the minor leagues. Yilber Herrera Scouting Report Bats: S | Throws: R | HT: 6’0 | WT: 155 MLB Pipeline Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 40 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50 Offensively, Herrera profiles as an effective contact hitter with quick hands and good bat speed. His lagging offensive tool currently is power. While he has shown flashes, he is lanky at 6’0, 155 lbs, and has yet to grow into his body. There is a good chance he develops more power as he grows and fills out. The 16-year-old has shown a strong ability to use the whole field when hitting and while not a burner, is quick and a savvy baserunner. Defensively, he diverges from the Polanco comparison significantly. While Polanco never promised to stick at SS due to a weak arm, Herrera’s athleticism and strong arm indicate he has a stronger chance to stick at shortstop. Herrera trains at the Jaime Ramos Baseball Academy. If he signs with the Twins, he will continue to cement a strong relationship between the Twins and Venezuelan youngsters in the last decade. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY The Minnesota Twins Recent History in International Free Agency International Free Agent Profile: Bryan Acuna View full article

Thank you for reading! Typically players from Asia are posted, and therefore follow a different process as most who come over are established professionals. I like the info and buzz but the system itself i find pretty problematic. It takes advantage of folks who generally, are much less financially viable the amateur prospects in the USA. A ton of these guys SHOULD be getting way bigger bonuses than they do imo.

Thanks for reading! We typically only hear about the top 20-35 prospects, but most time sign several more guys who are extremely difficult to get information on (Arraez back in 2013 would have been a good example of someone with very little fanfare). Definitely a huge opportunity to add talent!

Thanks for reading Roger! I agree, typically, in this context, more lottery tickets gives you a better chance of winning!

Thanks Mike for reading as always. We'll get into the weeds on the prospects starting today!

Like last year, a delayed period of international free agency begins on January 15th. What is the history and pedigree of the Twins in making these signing periods count? The international free agent signing period will get underway on January 15th. After being delayed by the pandemic, the current crop of IFAs can sign with MLB teams provided they turn 17 before September 1st, 2022. This week at Twins Daily, Cody Christie and I will look at the Twins history in International Free Agency, dating back to 2009. What were the Twins' biggest swings and misses? Where did they acquire or miss out on value? Later in the week, we’ll provide offensive and defensive profiles for three prospects likely to sign with the Twins. Note: The current MLB lockout WILL NOT impact international free agent signing as this period has been delayed since last summer. 2009 - The 99th Percentile Outcome Year In 2009, the Twins had a defining year in international free agency. They signed: Miguel Sano to a $3.15 million signing bonus Max Kepler to an $800,000 signing bonus Jorge Polanco to a $700,000 signing bonus The majority of international free agents don’t make it to the majors, let alone have multi-year MLB careers, let alone get extended by the teams that signed them. To have signed three players which fit that description in one signing cycle is a remarkable outcome. It’s not melodramatic to suggest that the IFA period in 2009 changed the trajectory of the Twins franchise. In 2021, Sano, Kepler, and Polanco formed core pieces in the Twins lineup. Kepler and Polanco, in particular, are signed to owner-friendly long-term deals. Last season, the three combined for 6.2 fWAR, just south of $50 million in value. Not bad for a $4.6 million investment. 2013 - 2017 - Twins Find Value, Miss on Big Names In 2013, the Twins signed a diminutive Venezuelan infielder to a $40,000 signing bonus. For an international free agent, this money is an afterthought, a lottery ticket. Throughout six MiLB seasons, he managed a .310 AVG, and .385 OBP. He already had a nickname when he came into the Twins system, ‘La Regadera’ (the sprinkler) due to his ability to spray the ball all over the field. His name? Luis Arraez. Arraez is a great reminder that international free agency is a lottery. Often the biggest name prospects underachieve, and players signed to middling or small bonuses can become superstars. In 2014 the Twins signed Huascar Ynoa for an $800,000 bonus. He was later traded to Atlanta for Jaime Garcia. Ynoa put up 1.4 fWAR in just 17 starts for the Braves in 2021, managing a 27% K%. Another significant free-agent signing in 2014 was from the Diamondbacks organization. Jhoan Duran, a lanky, hard-throwing RHP, signed for just $65,000. He’s now the #5 overall prospect in the Twins organization. In 2015 the Twins went bigger, signing Wander Javier, the #8 overall prospect, to a $4 million bonus. Javier’s career has been largely derailed by injuries. He struck out 34% of the time and managed just a 86 wRC+ at A+ Cedar Rapids in 2021. Gilberto Celestino was also signed by the Astros in 2015. The #7 prospect came to the Twins by way of the Ryan Pressly trade. Lastly, of note, two prospects further down the MLB Pipeline rankings in 2015? Juan Soto (#22) and Fernando Tatis Jr (#27). 2018 - Current - Too Early to Tell It’s difficult to draw conclusions from 2018 onwards as prospects have had limited time in the minors, particularly when considering a lost 2020 season. In 2018, Misael Urbina was signed to a $2.75 million bonus. The Venezuelan OF struggled at A ball last season, but with time on his side at just 19 years old, is an extremely promising prospect and ranked #12 overall in the Twins system. Emmanuel Rodriguez was the big get in 2019. He was signed to a $2.5 million bonus. The left-handed OF is currently the Twins #20 overall prospect, after being ranked #8 in his international free agent class. Rodriguez’s professional career began in earnest in 2021, where he managed a 124 wRC+ and slugged 10 HR in just 37 games. Rodriguez is one to keep an eye on in 2022. Finally, in 2020, the Twins signed Danny De Andrade, another diminutive infield prospect, who currently sits at #24 in the Twins system. Ranked as the #16 IFA in his class, De Andrade projects as a strong hitter for both average and solid power and has the defensive chops to remain at shortstop. De Andrade managed a .340 OBP in his first season with the DSL Twins. What’s Next? International scouting, and free agency, is a complex, challenging lottery. For a mid-market organization like the Twins, it’s critical in adding organizational talent, and potentially, adding impact MLB level talent. Throughout the week, Cody and I will have offensive and defensive profiles of the three major prospects linked to Minnesota, starting tomorrow with the younger brother of an MLB superstar. View full article

2022 is a critical year for the development of the Twins' deep farm system. Here are 3 critical St. Paul Saints storylines to watch in 2022. Understandably, much of the discourse between Twins fans this offseason has surrounded the lack of pitching upgrades, a frustration compounded by a stagnant lockout. Since Derek Falvey arrived in Minnesota in 2016 the organization has made an enormous commitment to maximizing player development. The Twins were on the front end of hiring college coaches for their MLB staff (Wes Johnson). Additionally, they catapulted their front office staff from near the bottom of the proverbial pile to a modern, sophisticated, and extremely expertly staffed group. While Twins fans spend most of their time sweating the status of the rotation and the potential competitiveness of the MLB roster in 2022, I’d argue that the outcomes of the Wichita Wind Surge and St. Paul Saints will have a greater impact on any retrospective of Falvey’s tenure than anything the MLB club does in 2022. The Twins are completely committed to developing their own pitching pipeline to achieve the ‘sustainable success’ Falvey spoke of when he first arrived in Minnesota. With this in mind, here are three critical St. Paul Saints' storylines to watch closely in 2022. The Development of the Twins’ Starting Pitching Pipeline This has to be the year Twins starting pitching prospects breakthrough and show what they can do at the MLB level. The majority of Joe Ryan’s development should be credited to the Rays. Bailey Ober was an exceptional surprise in 2021 but is likely a mid-back end of the rotation guy. In 2022, the Twins need to see a pitcher breakthrough who shows the potential to start a playoff game at the MLB level. There is certainly no shortage of possibilities! Chris Vallimont, Cole Sands, Simeon Woods-Richardson, and Jordan Balazovic all finished 2021 at Double-A Wichita and should all see time in St. Paul in 2022. Sands is a particularly unheralded Twins prospect, striking out 96 in just 80 1/3 innings in 2021 while producing a 2.46 ERA. Josh Winder and Jhoan Duran spent time in St. Paul in 2021 and should start there in 2022. It will, in particular, be a critical season for Duran who lost the majority of his 2021 to injury. Owner of perhaps the nastiest stuff in the Twins system (along with Chase Petty), Duran needs to stay healthy in order to show some sustained success at Triple-A. Coaching Staff Turnover This storyline goes hand-in-hand with the development of the Twins' incredibly deep farm system. One inevitable price you pay when developing excellent infrastructure is it will constantly be poached. St. Paul Saints Triple-A hitting coach, Matt Borgschulte was hired by the Orioles to be their co-MLB hitting coach this offseason. Additionally, Mike McCarthy, who was gracious enough to interview with me in 2021 for Twins Daily, took a Triple-A pitching coach job with the Padres. It’s unusual to lose both hitting and pitching coaches in one offseason and particularly challenging with such a pivotal developmental season for so many prospects ahead in 2022. I’d argue that these are two absolutely critical hires for 2022 and beyond. This will be worth paying attention to when they are announced. Bullpen Help is on the Way The Twins bullpen was a horror show in the first half of 2021. Despite significant improvement in the second half, Minnesota was already out of contention. There will be a significant turnover in the bullpen in 2022. Jovani Moran made the leap to the MLB level at the end of 2021 (pay attention to his changeup). Additionally, the Twins have three MLB-ready relief prospects in Yennier Cano, Ian Hamilton, and Ryan Mason. In 182 minor-league innings in 2021 (AA and AAA), the three combined for a 3.34 ERA and 235 strikeouts. All three will likely see the majors in 2022. The Twins front office has hitched their wagon to developing their own talent over the last five years. 2022 should be the year when it comes to fruition for the major league team with more consistency. While the Twins MiLB system doesn’t have the same elite-level prospects as some other top systems, they have some of the best depth in baseball. Do yourself a favor and get to CHS Field as often as you can in 2022. Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

The Giants just won 107 games with a mostly FA rotation. Not of a deep playoff run of course, but a good example. I'm not suggesting such a black and white approach, merely that there's value in that market to add stability. Adding that type of value doesn't preclude the Twins from relying on the stable of very exciting high minors arm talent they have.

I definitely agree, you never know. However, I specifically think there is a sub-stack of mid-rotation, FA pitching (DeSclafani is a god example) where there's a more predictable level of stability to be had. The Twins never attack this because their recent strategy has been 'we'll tweak a guy who struggled recently (e.g. Bundy).

I agree Mike. I also think they've shown flexibility though (e.g. focusing on defense last year) on how they team build, so I still personally struggle with them not showing similar flexibility by being more aggressive where there is market value to be had.

I definitely agree with you. Didn't mean for that comment to sound as if i was conflating the FO with all that went wrong in 2021, there was A TON out of their control. I just meant, performance wise, nothing clicked if you compare projections to where players actually landed.

I agree for sure. I think the biggest question I have with not taking that approach, is the Giants aren't even paying market value for the pitchers they signed. If Wood is worth 2.0 fWAR in 2022, that's worth around $16 million, he's making 10-12. It's a bargain. Even if the Twins 'overpaid' it would still likely produce market value for them.

The Twins front office missed an opportunity to tap into a market with significant value prior to the lockout. What was their biggest mistake this offseason? It’s a commonly held maxim that 40 fWAR gives you a pretty consistent opportunity for October baseball. It’s a pretty basic tenet of roster construction. Throughout the Falvey era, the Twins have shown an impressive level of flexibility in ‘how’ they go about trying to construct a 40 fWAR roster. In 2021, there was an increased emphasis on defense, highlighted by the addition of Andrelton Simmons as their starting shortstop. Ultimately, none of that mattered, as everything that could go wrong, did go wrong in 2021. In considering roster construction through the lens of assembling a 40 fWAR team, Minnesota has come up woefully short in a critical area so far this offseason. Before we dig into that. Let’s look at some data from 2021, and projections for 2022. For the sake of this argument, I’ll use fWAR actual totals from 2021 and ZiPS projections for 2022, acknowledging that projections are problematic and often difficult to draw meaningful conclusions from. With those caveats in mind, however, there are some meaningful conclusions to draw from these data: The scale of the 2021 Twins failure was pretty magnificent. Given that they haven’t made significant roster additions, there’s essentially a gap of 10 fWAR between their 2021 projection and actual performance, that’s staggering. A 2022 Minnesota Twins offense that is close to its projection has the team in contention pretty much by itself. The Twins’ success will live or die with its excellent offensive core. The Twins are not as far as it may feel from a team that can challenge for an AL Central crown in 2022. It’s equally obvious where the flaws are. The Twins bullpen was horrendous in the first half of 2021, evidenced by a higher projection with the same fungible relievers in 2022. There’s room for improvement there, but only so much from the bullpen. The Twins’ biggest mistake this offseason was not tapping into the mid-tier starting pitching free agent market, to raise the floor or the rotation. Looking at the Twins’ primary competition in the AL Central tells an interesting tale. The White Sox are as reliant on their rotation as the Twins are on their offense. Their rotation is projected over 14 fWAR in 2022. The up-and-coming Tigers, project 9.7 fWAR from their rotation. A similar mark for the Twins would put them just under a projected 40 fWAR for the 2022 season. Where did the Tigers get this boost to jump their rotation to 10 fWAR? Signing Eduardo Rodriguez. The Twins 2022 rotation is inherently unstable. Dylan Bundy is returning from an incredibly poor 2021, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober had hugely promising debut’s, but their 2022 outcomes are less stable and predictable than say, a Casey Mize or Tarik Skubal, simply due to their small sample sizes in 2021. Why did the Twins front office not aggressively pursue at least one stabilizing starting arm who lives in the 2.0-3.0 fWAR range to stabilize the rotation? A Blueprint for Success Let’s use the San Francisco Giants as a point of comparison. Upon initial consideration, comparing the Twins to a 107 win team may seem unfair, but I beg to differ. In 2020, the Giants were a sub .500 team in a shortened season, finishing at 29-31. This improvement mirrors (betters) the Twins improvement from 2018 (78-84), to 2019 (101-61). The Giants re-upped with three of their starters from 2021. They signed Alex Wood to a two-year, $25 million contract, Alex Cobb to a two-year, $20 million contract, and Anthony De Sclafani to a three-year $36 million contract. These three pitchers combined for 8.0 fWAR in 2021 and project for 7.8 fWAR in 2022. They average, together, $11.5 million per year when considering their contracts cumulatively. Each of these pitchers is likely to accumulate around $16-20 million in value based on their projections for 2022. There is value to be had in the mid-tier starting pitching market, which the Twins chose to ignore. Even signing one pitcher of this profile takes the teams’ projection to just under 39 fWAR in 2022 and does not inhibit your financial flexibility (they’re not spending big on a shortstop anyway, folks). The Twins front office has built a team that relies on offense and is pre-disposed to take advantage of the value in the mid-tier pitching market. Minnesota is not signing the front of the rotation starting pitchers and has not shown aggression in pursuing pitching upgrades on the trade market. While the lockout has frozen out any additional roster construction since the beginning of December, I’m no closer to understanding their roster construction strategy for pitching, a confounding frustration that may come back to haunt the 2022 Twins. View full article

Just signed an extension, if I had written it a month earlier he would have been in there, but I think them extending him makes dealing 1-2 of their other guys more realistic

Would be an amazing story, and maybe the most anticipated episode of Twins spotlight in history!

Thanks for reading, this is actually covered here. Luzardo and Sanchez are pre-arb, so MLB minimum. Lopez is Arb 1 so I believe $2.5 million. To your point however, it increases the price on all of them, particularly Sanchez, if they went that route.

Thanks for reading. Even with 'trying to compete' they have 9 viable MLB starters and a relatively poor offense, so I'd like to see the Twins attack either their upper echelon or the back ends guys

In the third of a three-part series, we look at the Miami Marlins as a trade partner for the Minnesota Twins to acquire starting pitching post-lockout. Who might be a fit? How much might they cost? As the lockout meanders into the holiday season, Twins fans find themselves in starting pitching limbo. The floor of the rotation was raised marginally by the addition of Dylan Bundy prior to the lockout. Minnesota, however, still has significant business to accomplish if they are to field a competitive rotation, with only Bundy, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober currently locked into spots for 2022. In the third of a three-part series (part one - Cincinnati Reds, part two - Oakland Athletics), I’ll look at some potential pitching targets from an organization flush with starting pitching capital, the Miami Marlins. NOTE: The trades mentioned are designed to give an approximate idea of the value of each potential starting pitching addition. They don’t necessarily correlate with the exact needs of the Marlins. Pablo Lopez At just 25, Lopez has improved both steadily and significantly since he made his MLB debut in 2018. In 102 2/3 innings pitched in 2021, Lopez accumulated a 3.29 FIP, 2.3 fWAR, a 27.5% K% and a measly 6.2% BB% Talk about a high floor. Lopez relies on a four-pitch mix including a mid-90s fastball, an excellent changeup, a cutter, and a curveball. Lopez is under team control until 2025 and would be pricey, but this is the position the Twins find themselves if they want to improve their rotation significantly through trade. Possible Trade: The Twins trade INF Luis Arraez, C Ryan Jeffers and a PTBNL to Miami for RHP Pablo Lopez Jesus Luzardo A former consensus top pitching prospect, very little has gone right for Luzardo since his first significant MLB stint in 2019 for the Athletics. In 95 MLB innings in 2021 between the A’s and Marlins, Luzardo managed a 22.4% K% (fine), an 11% BB% (not fine), a 5.48 FIP, and -0.2 fWAR (yikes). So, what’s to like here? For one, you don’t sit atop prospect rankings for multiple years for no reason. Luzardo still has electric stuff. A fastball that sits at 95 mph at the low end and a good slider he throws around 23% of the time. This combination falls into the wheelhouse of the Twins pitching preferences, but they’d have to be confident in next steps for Luzardo to pull the trigger on trading for him. Possible Trade: The Twins trade OF Brent Rooker and RHP Cole Sands to Miami for LHP Jesus Luzardo Sixto Sanchez The Twins would be trading into the upper echelons of ‘stuff’ if they were to acquire Sanchez. Still a top pitching prospect, the 23-year-old boasts front of the rotation firepower. Sanchez relies on a fastball that sits at 98 mph. It gets fewer strikeouts than a pitch of that velocity should due to a lack of movement, but it’s his changeup that is the star of the show. In just 40 MLB innings in 2021, Sanchez had a 20.9% K%, 7% BB%, a 3.50 FIP, and accumulated 1.0 fWAR (that’s around 4.5 fWAR pace over a season). Sanchez could be poised for a monster 2022. Possible Trade: The Twins trade OF Max Kepler to the Marlins for RHP Sixto Sanchez The Marlins have a huge amount of additional starting pitching assets, including Trevor Rogers, Elieser Hernandez, Edward Cabrera, and Max Meyer who I chose not to include as targets as I felt the Marlins would be unlikely to part with them (Rogers and Meyer) or the Twins wouldn’t be confident enough in the floor they would give the rotation to execute the trade. Which of these targets feel like the best fit for the Twins? What direction do you think the team will take to improve the rotation when the lockout ends? Join the discussion below. View full article

The Twins signed Dylan Bundy hours before the owners forced a lockout. How might the Twins tweak his approach to maximize his ceiling for the 2022 team? The Twins signed Dylan Bundy to a 1-year, $5 million deal on Wednesday night, with a $1 million buyout on an $11 million club option for 2023. The move came just hours before the MLB owners unanimously enforced a lockout of the players. The signing of Bundy shouldn’t alter the fact that the Twins front office receives a ‘doing the bare minimum’ grade in improving the starting rotation thus far in free agency. Frustratingly, we’ll have to wait to see how the story plays out. In Bundy, however, the Twins have signed a solid upside arm they hope will have a Robbie Ray type impact season in 2023. What range of outcomes does Bundy offer? How might the Twins tweak his approach to maximize a high upside play? Let’s dig into the numbers. Conveniently, Bundy has shown his entire range of outcomes in his past two seasons with the Angels. Last season, he was rancid. In 90 2/3 innings he managed a 6.06 ERA (4.83 xERA), a 21.2% K%, and 0.0 fWAR. Woof. Conversely, in the shortened 2020 season over 65 2/3 innings, he managed a 3.29 ERA (3.02 xERA), 27% strikeout%, and 2.0 fWAR, that’s a 6.0 fWAR pace over a full season, phew! To put that all visually, here is 2020 and 2021 next to each other. In incredibly simple terms, a Bundy season splitting the difference of those two outcomes would generate approximately a 2.5 fWAR season which is nothing to be sneezed at and a solid start to what needs to be an extensive overhaul of a non-existent rotation for the Twins before the 2022 season kicks off. So what attracted the Twins to Bundy, and how might they try and tweak his approach next season? Here’s what attracted the Twins to Dylan Bundy. Bundy has a nasty slider. In 2020, he threw it 25% of the time. In 2021, he threw it just 21%. Expect that figure to skyrocket in 2022. It’s by far his best pitch and was worth over four runs in 2021. The Twins will have him throw it 30% of the time or more. It’s notable that Bundy’s slider location was one of the primary reasons he struggled in 2021. In 2020, the heat map has it right in the corner of the strike zone, as opposed to far more centrally located in 2021. Regaining command of that pitch will be critical to his success in 2022. Another reason the Twins were likely attracted to Bundy is his fastball. Long gone are the days when Bundy was a top prospect throwing his fastball in the high-90s. It does, however, have an extremely high spin rate, the Twins’ most obvious fastball-related tendency. Bundy’s formula with the Twins will be fastballs high in the zone a la Jake Odorizzi and a high volume of sliders down and away to right-handed hitters. In my opinion, there’s not much to dislike about the Bundy move. He’s a high upside play who can easily be a solid number three starting pitcher on a great contract. The nagging question which will gnaw at Twins fans throughout the lockout and make it difficult to focus on the positives of the Bundy signing in isolation, was tweeted by John Bonnes yesterday. ‘Do the Twins front office love good contracts more than good players?’ We'll have to wait and see. View full article