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jimmer

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Everything posted by jimmer

  1. jimmer
    We could end up with 10 more losses than any other team in baseball. Think about that.
  2. jimmer
    My wife refuses to watch the show Fargo because she felt the movie of the same name offended North Dakotans.
  3. jimmer
    '"Obviously, Theo and the guys he brought with him five years ago took the organization down to the studs and started rebuilding," Ricketts said. "I give a lot of credit to Theo and Jed and everybody on that team, but I also give a lot of credit to all of our fans who basically heard our story, listened to us throughout. I think the time and energy to do it the right way has paid off with a team that should be successful for years to come."' http://m.mlb.com/news/article/203881276/cubs-announce-extension-for-theo-epstein/ Good for him. He's done great work.
  4. jimmer
    Only Dan Plesac...he said AL Cy Young should be a tossup between Britton and Porcello.
  5. jimmer
    pup portage?
  6. jimmer
    I wouldn't count on next offseason to be much better. With all the money in the game right now, and the tendency for teams to extend players early, teams are going to be keeping more and more of their great players/pitchers. FA is going to continue to have not much value going forward. It's going to have to be through international signings, trades and development of prospects. All the things we excel at. :-)
  7. jimmer
    When trying to determine a players actual talent level, yes, three years. But you can compare one player's 2016 defense to another player's 2016 defense using just 2016 stats and it will tell you how they compared to each other that year. Just like offensive numbers. If, in a 3 year sample, a player has one great year, one bad year, and one good year. You figure his talent level is: good player. Doesn't mean that, in individual seasons, he wasn't good one year, great one year and bad one year. Those seasons still happened and that's how he was in those seasons.
  8. jimmer
    About UZR, it says: 'Once you get to one and three-year samples, it’s a relatively solid metric but defensive itself is quite variable so you need a good amount of data for the metrics to become particularly useful.' Says right there a one year sample is a solid metric and Cameron has said the same thing in his chats. Thing is, it's not when trying to figure out a player's true talent level because, like offense, people have good and bad years on defense. But it is okay to use to look at how a player did for a specific year. Now if you're pointing out that the UZR primer says it's not 100% accurate, well, few things are. I've never said they are 100% accurate or that WAR is (or that wRC+ is). Only that they are the best we have to try and determine overall value of a player. But I've gotten to the point where, depending on where I chat, I'm not going to try and continue to convince people to go away from their devotion to traditional stats, cause most like to say since the advanced ones aren't perfect, they shouldn't be used while ignoring how flawed the traditional ones are at telling the story of a player's talent. Traditional stats are a cozy blanket coated in tradition and memories. I'll just point out why I think a good chunk of them shouldn't be counted on to tell the story they've been led to believe they tell them and why I think another stat does it better. Nothing more to do after that. And I don't know why OPS is being brought up at all. OPS isn't a defensive stat. But what has been pointed out is that OBP is very undervalued in the equation for OPS.
  9. jimmer
    I have been going away from using WAR when comparing position players who play the same position. I usually look at wRC+ and DRS together cause I like DRS better than UZR. When comparing value of position players to players from other positions I like WAR because it takes into account positional adjustment (meaning if a 1B and SS have the same numbers, it will show the SS to be the more valuable player). Basically, once you know that no matter what you use it won''t be 100% perfect, you just look for the ones that are the best available at the time. Like I know UZR and DRS aren't perfect, but I definitely think they are better than using errors and fielding %.
  10. jimmer
    I don't know people who use UZR/150 regularly unless you have compare a player who has like 140 games played to someone with 155. Using UZR/150 when comparing players with a vast playing time difference (like Mauer and Vargas)is too hard because there is too much assumption built into it. I know Dave Cameron and Dan S (the ZiPS guy) have warned against it.
  11. jimmer
    Mauer has 6 DRS. All the people above him have way more innings. He's a top 5 defensive 1B in baseball. Vargas is at -1 DRS. Prorating that to the amount of innings Mauer has is like -4?
  12. jimmer
    Concerning defensive metrics. There's a difference between looking at defensive metrics for a longer period than one season to determine a person's actual defensive ability and looking at defensive metrics a season at a time to see how they performed for THAT season. So yes, you can absolutely use defensive stats for this year alone to tell how a person did THIS year alone. Dave Cameron just addressed this recently when someone asked a similar answer. He said that how a player performs on defense fluctuates season to season (just like offense and pitching does), and that season stats still tell what happened that season even if it doesn't give the players' true defensive abilities. And, in that way, defensive metrics are the same as hitting and pitching stats, both traditional and advanced one. Danny Santana's 2014 offense happened, even though that wasn't his true skill level. A player can under-perform and out-perform their abilities and norms offensively, on the mound, AND defensively. Cant just look at the multiple years disclaimer given for defensive metrics and say the individual season stats mean doesn't tell us how they did that season.
  13. jimmer
    Find if humorous that people feel Sano is being attacked on a personal level for his lack of conditioning (when his job is that of a professional athlete and being in shape is part of the JOB)yet personal attacks on Mauers character in regards to preparing himself for the season has been happening to Mauer for years with few showing outrage about that.
  14. jimmer
    probably more of a Zima guy.
  15. jimmer
    how is Vargas considered a plus defender??
  16. jimmer
    maybe the twins can sign 3 mediocre starting pitchers with the freed up 23M a year when he is gone. Or just keep payroll lower
  17. jimmer
    I'd love to give you the info you asked for but unfortunately, right now, Fangraphs isn't showing season splits for defense. Batting and pitching, yes, but not defense. I do know the team DRS kept going higher in the negative, but I believe it slowed (while still being negative)
  18. jimmer
    Wow, such unbelievably horrible news. Makes me very said. Such a young man with so much going for him and so much to live for. A fantastic talent I will miss watching play the great game.
  19. jimmer
    so far, it's the only new show I will watch again.
  20. jimmer
    Designated Survivor was good.
  21. jimmer
    That would be horrible, IMO. Giving an MVP to someone for sentimental reasons when there are many players more deserving. He's not even the most deserving on his own team.
  22. jimmer
    He's not a top 5 candidate for MVP. Period.
  23. jimmer
  24. jimmer
    17 HR in wins. 25 HR in losses. He's hit a HR in 38 games 15-23.
  25. jimmer
    This question confuses me. FAs can't be traded. They'd be the ones you would buy. There are plenty of pitchers that may be able for trade for the right package that can't just be bought on the open market.
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