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dbminn

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Everything posted by dbminn

  1. dbminn
    You made a lot of good points, Tom. He's not worth the asking price, especially in the middle of the season. I'd rather see the Twins make a trade with SF or Baltimore.
  2. dbminn
    And Pineda didn't have to be a hero to get through seven. 91 low-stress pitches is no more than a good night's work. Baldelli has to be happy with the start.
  3. dbminn
    I agree. Hawkins and Morneau rotating as color analyst. Jim Kaat can sit in anytime he pleases.
  4. dbminn
    The RP Board shows a lot of green again. Great to get a win and give the high-leverage guys a night off. They needed it. Pineda was efficient and aggressive with the lead. A fine outing from the 5th starter.
  5. dbminn
    I agree. It will get better when the top two prospects get going. I bet it will be soon. Lewis - other than yesterday's game - has started hitting. Kirilloff will figure it out. The next two, Graterol and Larnach, have been as advertised. Larnach has recovered from a slow start and now looks like a first-round pick. The rest of the top ten, other than Duran, have been disappointing so far. The saving grace has been those outside the top 10. The farm system is really deep. A lot of these lower ranked players have a legitimate chance of making it to the Twins: Still Too Young to Write Off: Trey Cabbage, Travis Blankenhorn, Lewin Diaz. They are all just 22 years old. Cabbage has had the least prospect buzz of this group, but has managed a 1.008 OPS across two levels this year. The Catchers: Ben Rortvedt and Ryan Jeffers. Learning how to be a professional catcher is hard, so development can be slower than for other position players. I'm excited that Rortvedt has made it to AA as a 21 year old. He's the youngest catcher in the Southern League. Could've Been Rated Higher: Luis Arraez, Luke Raley and Jordan Balazovic. There are legitimate questions about Arraez's lack of power and Raley's K% but they keep doing their thing. Balazovic was very good last year but has now taken it to another level. I was Skeptical: Jorge Acala. I watched a couple of his starts after he came to the organization last season. Threw incredibly hard with a nasty slider. He had no idea where they were going. Mechanically, he looked like the rivets in his joints were going to fly off. Snippets I've seen from this season show a lot of improvement. Here's a tweet from Chris Blessing, who saw him pitch last week: Who Knew?: Devin Smeltzer. Maybe some of you were high on this guy. I had no clue. He doesn't throw hard but he misses bats. As Tom has shown, he has deception. I can see him as a Twins middle reliever soon.
  6. dbminn
    A lot of good responses to today's summary. I'll throw my two cents into the ether regarding the themes of the day: RISP - I'm with Brock. Not enough PA to make anything of the slump. K and BB rates are similar to the full-season numbers. They are about the only two categories that have any meaning at 150 PA. As Brock said, expect normal numbers (not above average) the rest of the way. Duffey - He has the pitches to be a good reliever. My cheap-seat take is he's never had control of his emotions. When things get difficult, Duffey seems to get so wound up he can't focus. The game speeds up for him. That said, the issue can be overcome. I'd give him another chance. Let Johnson work with him for a while. Injuries - The Twins can handle the loss of Cruz for a few weeks. Cave and Astudillo can take his PA the next few days. Sano will be there when he's ready to return. Losing a top SP or RP would be a lot scarier.
  7. dbminn
    My mom passed away several years ago. A perfect Mother's Day for her included a homemade breakfast made by others, followed by a baseball game on a sunny Sunday afternoon. Even if it was town ball. I miss her.
  8. dbminn
    Great photo of Balazovic. That's a serious stride towards home plate. The ball must get on the hitters quick.
  9. dbminn
    Congratulations to all of the players getting a promotion or starting their season!
  10. dbminn
    The Rochester SP has been disappointing to say the least. The team ERA is a hair under 6.00. But all of the AAA teams have struggled, at least in part due to using the juiced major league ball. The difference between AAA and other minor league ERAs is mind boggling. Here are the number of qualified pitchers and the number with an ERA under 4.00, followed by league ERA: Midwest League (A) 48-34, 3.90 Florida State Lg (A+) 45-33, 3.36 Southern League (AA) 35-23, 3.70 International Lg (AAA) 37-7, 4.99 Two more tidbits: Kohl Stewart is a couple of innings short of qualifying (18 IP). At his current ERA of 4.50, he'd be the 11th best starter in the league, just ahead of Littell. In 2018, the IL ERA was 3.84 and the Southern League ERA was 3.88.
  11. dbminn
    I have a suggestion. It would require a bit more time, which I know is already at a premium for you folks. I'm just throwing this out there for comment. I would like some information about the opponents. It could be as simple as a list of top 10 or 30 prospects on that particular team (list of your choice) before the opening game of a series. Maybe top pitching prospects could be listed with the Probable Starters. Salt in a sentence if one of those prospects was shut down by our farm team, or if they dominated the game. In any case, thanks for the daily summaries.
  12. dbminn
    Seth, you and the other TD folks do a great job with the monthly rankings. I get the feeling you incorporate age as an element at the lower levels, which IMO is good. My nitpick of the month is ranking Rortvedt as only an Honorable Mention. I'd put him ahead of both Cesar and Wiel, considering the dismal state of hitting in the FSL. My bias is K%. It's hard for me to pick hitters above 30% for the top five of any month. (That would include Schales, Wiel, JDavis in April).
  13. dbminn
    Cedar Rapids won but we can't be sure about the relief pitchers' performances. All that was left was a Blank Record.
  14. dbminn
    I looked at that the other day. The Florida State League hitters are really struggling. Median batting average (6 teams above, 6 below) is .228. Only one team has a BA over .236. Median OPS is .647. In 2018, team medians were .253 BA and .696 OPS. FSL is pitcher friendly but that's really low. An example - Akill Badoo's slash line is a fairly miserable .203/.286/.406. His Fangraphs WRC+ is 114. He's 14% better than the league in hitting production. Doesn't seem possible. The Southern League and MWL hitters are down between 5 and 10% too.
  15. dbminn
    Mejia looks like he's getting more comfortable with airing it out.
  16. dbminn
    Zander Weil is an interesting player. By the numbers, he has been a good hitter who has shown less power each year in the system. His HR have declined while his OPS has stayed steady: A: 19 HR / 568 PA / .792 OPS (1 HR/29.9 PA) A+: 13 HR / 526 PA / .773 OPS (1/40.4) AA: 7 HR / 435 PA / .827 OPS (1/62.1) He seems to have changed his approach since reaching AAA in late August 2018: AAA: 7 HR / 102 PA / .795 OPS (1/14.6) Weil has always hit a few more ground balls than fly balls. Through AA, he hit 1.1 GB/1 FB (line drives excluded). For 2019, he's hitting 4 fly balls for every grounder. Granted, the AAA sample size is small. Still, I'm curious... Has Weil made a conscious change? Seems like a reasonable adjustment if he wants a MLB career.
  17. dbminn
    The National Weather Service reported 20-30 mph steady wind with gusts to 45 mph during the Red Wings game. That will easily drop a routine fly ball in the seats. Dr. Alan Nathan, a physicist and baseball consultant, has a publicly available baseball trajectory spreadsheet. The calculations are based on test data and statcast info. Here are my model assumptions: Rochester's stadium sits almost west to east for a hitter. The wind was out of the west.Here are the model estimates of the wind's impact: Exit Velocity at 100 mph and ideal launch angle (27.5 degrees) 0 mph wind = 389 ft 30 mph wind = 468 ft Exit Velocity at 90 mph and a typical fly ball angle (45 degrees) 0 mph wind = 295 ft 30 mph wind = 393 ft The actual wind was at a slight angle to ballpark orientation, so this is a best-case estimate for hitters. Still... a routine fly ball becomes an easy HR to the RF/CF gap.
  18. dbminn
    With all the new players, I was concerned about getting off to a decent start. The Twins are 3-3 against contenders (Indians, Phillies) and 2-0 against weak teams (Royals). They're 2-1 at home and 3-2 on the road. So far so good. A split with the Mets would be a nice way to end the road trip. They get DeGrom and Syndergaard, so this will be a real test.
  19. dbminn
    Agreed! A lot of talented players acquired since the beginning of 2016. Will there be a serious 40-man roster crunch coming up in the future? I hope someone at TD will put up a list of Rule V eligibility for 2020 and 2021 at some point (hint).
  20. dbminn
    Seth, you and many others at TD see these players a lot more than me. What follows is a fan's opinion: From what I've seen of Raley, he seems as much a prospect as Rooker. He doesn't have the power potential of Rooker (who does?) but he seems to have better recognition and coverage of the k-zone. By accounts, he's a better fielder and the two are the same age. I feel like Raley gets the same treatment as Balazovic. They weren't highly touted but both have the tools to be ranked higher (not just stats). Again, not a rant, just a barely informed opinion. As I've said before, I look to the TD folks first for info on the entire Twins system.
  21. dbminn
    April is going to have to play out before any decisions are made. Too many days off. This will sort itself out as the season plays on. Castro has had multiple surgeries and won't be able to play a lot of games as the season wears on. Other injuries will create openings for Astudillo, or maybe a trade opportunity for Garver. It's a good problem to have at this point.
  22. dbminn
    The season is officially 1.23% complete and the Twins are tied for the division lead.
  23. dbminn
    Well, look it up and report back. I'll be happy to read what you come up with. To me, it's not significant. At the least, it's not drastic, as was contended in the original post.
  24. dbminn
    Pressly threw 47.2 IP for the Twins across 103 games. His Astros stats were 23.1 IP in 56 games. Had the Astros used him 2.2 more innings, it would've been equal use. Nothing drastic.
  25. dbminn
    Eades looks like he has the repertoire, at least to this amateur's eyes. Could be a sleeper for later in the year.
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