Eris

Jim Kaat had described Hrbek as the greatest defensive first baseman he has seen. Somewhere along the way I remember Kent Hrbek attributing his defensive skills to being a hockey goalie at Bloomington Kennedy High. However, I could not find information on the internet to reference for this comment. Your comments about moving Grossman out of the outfield have a lot of merit as this is an example of a good offensive player hurting his team with very/extremely bad defense. Do we understand what Grossman's problem is (other than he was close to the worst defensive outfielder). Others have gone from bad defensively to good with a lot of work. Is there any hope for Grossman?

Umpires are like the rest of us, they all have differing skill sets. Some of the umpires are also not young anymore. In 2014, the average age of an MLB umpire was 45.8. With increasing age, their reflexes (and thus their skills) decrease. Additionally, MLB umpires have a very strong union and it is unlikely that umpires who are poor in calling balls and strikes will be pushed aside. As an example, Joe West is still an MLB umpire (and still umping in playoff games). There is an additional component related to framing and electronic evaluations that is seldom discussed. This probably contributes to longer games. Umpires, who are being graded on ball and strike calling, are less likely to expand the strike zone when the game is no longer close. I can't speak for what happens at the ML level, but as a player I have told many times that because of the game situation or the weather that anything close would be a strike.

Molitor may have his faults but being forced to play Danny Santana in CF last year should not be pinned on Molitor. The Twins plan in CF last spring rested on the "hope" that Byron Buxton was developed enough to contribute in CF last year. When the Buxton option failed, the Twins had no major league caliber CF on the roster (or in AAA). The failure to plan for this scenario should fall on the shoulder of Terry Ryan.

On Tommy John. Good High school pitchers are throwing for 9 months of the year. Are on multiple teams and often are focused only on baseball. Years ago, good athletes often played 3 different sports. This overuse at a young age, along with the velocity race is likely the drivers of TJ. My son played with kids who had ligament damage from pitching at the age of 12. It would be interesting to see if the incidents of TJ is lower for ML pitchers who did not pitch in high school and earlier.

10.1 WAR / 6 years averages 1.7 WAR / year. This seems good but not great. In ML last year, 56 pitchers had a WAR greater than Ian Kennedy's 1.7. Since 2010, Phil Hughes has had 14 WAR, 8.1 WAR excluding his 5.9 WAR in 2014 and including last year. Ricky Nolasco returned 2.5 WAR last year. Carl Pavano turned in 7.4 WAR in his 3.5 years with the Twins. However this does point to one of the Twin problems. Over the last 20 years, they have only had 7 pitchers who have accumulated a WAR with the Twins greater than 8. This is depressing. In that context, DeLeon's 10 WAR projection looks great. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=1996&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Over this period team and pitchers with WAR > 8. Twins: 7 White Sox: 15 Royals: 7 Tigers: 10 Indians: 12 Dodgers: 12 Yankees: 16

Unfortunately, there is a lot of truth in what you have written. Bob Klapisch is the beat writer for the Bergen Record and covers mostly the Yankkees. Below are his thoughts (from todays paper). As for Bonds and Clemens, both have received my votes for years, not because PEDs weren’t game-changers. They were and still are. I’m not necessarily advocating for a generation of juicers. But as I’ve written before, if the federal government couldn’t nail Bonds and Clemens for steroids, don’t expect me to punish them, either. If commissioners Selig and Manfred say Bonds and Clemens were and are in good standing, that meets the threshold for my vote. Besides, if you’re looking for someone to lash out against for the pharmaceutical era, Selig is the better target. It was on his watch that PEDs washed over the sport like a monsoon. Furthermore, Selig was complicit in the collusion between owners against free agents in the 1980s; the commissioner himself was called as a witness in the case that ultimately ruled in favor of the players. If Selig had been on my Hall of Fame ballot – which he wasn’t, his candidacy was decided on by the Today’s Game Era committee – I would’ve voted against him. I would’ve said so loudly. http://www.northjersey.com/story/sports/columnists/bob-klapisch/2017/01/17/96678202/

From what I read, Valencia has reputation for having a poor clubhouse presence / not being a good team player.

Kyle Hendricks. From Fangraphs: (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/prospect-stock-watch-kyle-hendricks/) The Rangers flipped him to the Cubs in the Ryan Dempster deal, prompting this report entering 2013: Were the Rangers selling high, or do the Cubs have something special here? Hendricks threw up to 94 MPH when used in the bullpen in 2011, but as a starter he’s more in the 88-92 range. His command is excellent and he has a full assortment of secondary pitches, using a curveball, traditional slider, cutter, and changeup. None of his pitches are plus offerings, but hell, he’s got five of them, and he throws strikes. That’s enough to make short work of A-ball. We need to see him at higher levels, but Hendricks could end up being a useful four/five starter. He could also return to the bullpen, where his diverse arsenal and superior command could give hitters fits in short doses. Grade C+ Also, Jacob DeGrom wasn't on any top prospect lists although injuries played a role. (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/10/5/6874227/a-sleeper-who-woke-up-jacob-degrom-rhp-new-york-mets) Corey Kluber (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/10/6/6922083/a-sleeper-who-woke-up-corey-kluber-rhp-cleveland-indians)

I would add to this that De Leon appears to have only one great pitch (change up). He has an average fastball with a hittable slider. Maybe it is possible that he turns himself into a Kyle Hendricks. He would probably need to develop an additional pitch. He profiles more like a #3 starter with some upside and question marks on durability. Personally, I think if De Leon is the center piece of a Dozier trade, the Twins should pass.

Stewart had football scholarship (QB) to Texas A&M. He was considered an outstanding athlete in high school. I think the challenge here is that it is extremely difficult to project high school pitchers. There are multiple factors involved, including injuries, the need to develop additional pitches, and opposition batters with better plate discipline. The ball is also different--wound tighter with the seems not as elevated. Rob Kaminsky (now in the Indians organization) gave an interview with the local paper (Bergen Record) and pointed out that he never had trouble gripping the ball until he was in the minors.

There was some discussion of Vargas' fourth option year in the forum linked below. Summarizing the discussion is that Vargas failed to meet the 90 day requirement on an active MiLB roster needed to receive credit for a year of service. Most likely this is related to his suspension for violating MLB drug policy. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/24320-berardino-falvey-on-mauer-polanco-sano-vargas-more/

My son and I are planning on being in Florida for a week (March 13-18) to watch baseball (visiting both the Twins and the Mets facilities as he is a Mets fan). We have never done this before. Do I need to be concerned about the availability to tickets? Do the games typically sell out or are there plenty walk up tickets available? Thank you.

I think a better comparison would be Johan Santana. He was an elite pitcher when his fastball was near 95. As his velocity dropped, so did his K%. He was still effective, but no longer elite. De Leon's fastball (~ 92) is probably at the lower end of the effectiveness spectrum. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=755&position=P#advanced http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=755&position=P&pitch=FA http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2010/06/santana_must_made_adjustments.html

I think that currently the answer would be pitcher although several decades ago it would have been a position player. Currently, 6 of the top 10 and 9 of the top 20 highest paid MLB players are pitchers. I am making an assumption that these salaries reflect relative demand. http://www.usatoday.com/sports/mlb/salaries/ In 1995, only 1 of the top 10 and, 3 of the top 20 highest paid MLB players were pitchers. http://www.usatoday.com/sports/mlb/salaries/1995/player/all/ My own personal view is that I would not trade a top tier position player for an equivalent pitcher primarily because the risk of injuries to the pitcher is so much higher. Another example of the current value of pitching is what the Cubs and the Indians gave up for Chapman and Miller.

Here is a decent article on the topic. It doesn't really answer your question, but other have had similar quests to find an answer to this. http://www.sbnation.com/2011/12/2/2604446/rafael-palmeiro-1999-gold-glove Although the Palmeiro gold glove is particularly egregious, at least he was a decent first baseman when he played (either Doug Mientkiewicz or Tino Martinez would have been much better choices for the gold glove that year). One of the worst examples was Derek Jeters undeserved gold glove in 2006. Below is the link to fangraphs data (not sure if it gets through to the filter). Jeter was close to the bottom on most defensive metrics except fielding % where he was 11. At that time most of the good defensive SS were in the NL and no AL SS had exceptionally good defensive season, but still the voters gave it to one of the worst players at the position for the year. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2006&month=0&season1=2006&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d The Fielding Bible Awards were in part started to address the discrepancy between the gold glove winners and who the experts viewed the best defensive player at a position. The first year for these awards was 2006 http://www.fieldingbible.com/the-winners.asp http://calltothepen.com/2016/11/10/mlb-comparing-gold-glove-winners-to-fielding-bible-counterparts/

In 2009, Santana hurt his UCL. Depending on the source, this was describe as a sprain or a partial tear. Not sure if this has any bearing on his current trade value. Here is an article from 2012. http://www.royalsreview.com/2012/11/4/3594438/ervin-santana-damaged-goods An excerpt from the article in 2014 referenced at the the end of this post indicates there is no UCL damage "Surgery isn't a foregone conclusion. Adam Wainwright lasted half a decade with a torn UCL before it blew. Ervin Santana's right elbow shows no sign of a UCL defect these days after he rehabbed a partial tear five years ago, according to a source familiar with his medicals. PRP treatment worked for Takashi Saito's partial tear, and a study published in the American Journal of Sports Medicine last year called it "an effective option to treat partial UCL tears of the elbow." source: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/why-mlb-s-elbow-problem--which-now-includes-yankees--masahiro-tanaka--is-worse-than-people-imagine-055237854.html

I think it demonstrates if we incentivize a certain skill set, people will go out and try to achieve that skill set. In this case, being able to throw a mid-90's fastball is a path to the majors. In the area that I live (northern NJ), there is a whole industry devoted to teaching young children the mechanics needed to throw hard. It is almost impossible for a player to be a high school pitcher without his parents spending thousands of dollars in these coaching / player development activities. At a local DIII school where I teach, pitchers with low 90's fastballs ride the pine. There is a significant downside to the velocity arms race. Many teenagers, MiLB and MLB players with arm injuries. On the Mets team, 4 of their 6 stud pitchers (Harvey, deGrom, Matz, and Wheeler) have had TJ surgery. What the current situation also demonstrates is given enough exposure and practice, hitters can catch up to 100 mph pitches, just like they learned to hit sliders. While I think the velocity arms race is over done, the data does support that higher velocity generates more K's. Arms are now considered expendable. Until that changes, the velocity arms race will continue.

Is this actually the case? Yes, he still has options so the Twins could send him to the minors. But he has a contract and if the Twins release him, the Twins owe him the remainder of the contract and Park is free to sign with any other team for the major league minimum (assuming he baseball in the U.S.)

Park is a decent defensive 1st baseman. Although 24 games is a SSS, his UZR/150 was 13.5 (2nd best) and he had 2 DRS. Extrapolating the DRS over 1337 innings (Rizzo's innings with 11 DRS), Park would have led all MLB 1st basemen in DRS with 13 DRS. From a defensive view point, the Twins would be better off with Park over Mauer at 1st (again based on a small sample size). Whether or not Park can produce enough offensively to justify being penciled in the line-up every day remains to be seen. (Data is from Fangraphs)

I think people are seriously over valuing Brian Dozier's trade value. A good comparison to Dozier is Neil Walker of the Mets. They have similar defensive stats and are offensive first second baseman. Walker is 2 years older. Walker was traded with one year left on his contract for Jonathan Niese with 2 years left on his contract. Niese was about a 2.0 -2.5 WAR pitcher coming off a down year in 2015 (0.9 WAR). I was looking through fangraphs for a similar Twins pitcher and Ricky Nolasco appears to be a close comparison (0.7 WAR last year, 1.0 WAR in 2014, better in previous years, 2.5 WAR this year). Would you trade 1 year of Brian Dozier for 2 years of Ricky Nolasco? I think most people on this board would say "absolutely not." I also think that the Twins tried to trade Dozier at the deadline while he was in the middle of one of his career best hot streaks and did not like the offers they were receiving. Part of this can also be attributed to no play-off contenders needing a significant upgrade at 2B. That Dozier is a very streaky hitter significantly diminishes his value. Another comparision although not the best because of age and salary considerations is Chase Utley to the Dodgers for righty John Richy and super utilityman Darnell Sweeney, neither of whom will be anything above replacement level players. A Dozier trade should net more value. Another trade that might be a good comparision is Ian Kinsler for Prince Fielder. Texas traded at good 2B for a power mashing 1B who was a defensive liability. Fielder was 2 years younger at the time of the trade. Comparisons here would be trading Dozier for slightly younger versions of Jose Abreu or Carlos Santana. (Note I am only looking at the data at the time of the trade. Fielder was injured after the trade and has been an extreme disappointment with the Rangers).

West is in right field tonight. At least he was introduced as such in the pre-game. I would say that he can't do much damage in right but he did a lot of damage in left a number of years ago. I made my comment because I would have thought there would be some effort made to have the best umpires for the WS. But, that doesn't appear to be the case. http://m.mlb.com/news/article/206992952/world-series-umpire-crew-announced/

I am surprised that Joe West is umpiring. Just curious about what the selection process. One of the worst home plate umps in 2014. Sorry can't find similar data for this year. http://epicrelievers.com/2014/07/statistically-ranking-the-best-and-worst-home-plate-umpires-in-mlb/ http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/umpire-joe-west-awful-voted-worst-baseball-stinks-balls-strikes-torii-hunter-check-swing-040815

I agree. For sports franchises it is all about PR. Do we really want sports programs (pro, college, Olympics, etc.) to conduct extra-judicial processes that extend beyond taking performance enhancing drugs? I think the long term effect of that would be bad. (In both the Chapman and Brown cases, prosecutors declined to file charges and the judge dismissed charges against Ray Rice) From my perspective, the question is do we as a society have different sets of rules for "athletes" and other "important" people that contributes to domestic violence. Unfortunately, I think the answer is yes. I think we as a society tend to overlook the bad behavior of young male athletes and this results in a lost opportunity to correct violent and other forms of undesirable behavior when people are young. I don't really have any data to support this but it is just what I think. I think also that there is a culture in some organizations (sports, military, businesses) that condones this behavior. CNN carried an article about how the outcome of the Brock Turner case is very common. He served 3 months for the sexual assault of an unconscious person. http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/02/us/brock-turner-college-athletes-sentence/ Bill Cosby. Women began reporting inappropriate behavior about 15 years ago. In some cases with witnesses. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/31/bill-cosby-sexual-abuse-claims-57-women-dates-public-accusations Jerry Sandusky. Penn State overlooks the bad behavior of an assistant football coach. http://www.cbsnews.com/feature/the-penn-state-scandal/ Note also that sexual assault incidences are also higher in the military: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/apr/6/doubts-on-militarys-sex-assault-stats-as-numbers-f/ There was an article written about Gary Carter when he died. What I remember about the article is how his team mates would make fun of him because he was faithful to his spouse and didn't go out drinking after the games. This was in 1986. http://www.northjersey.com/story-archives/klapisch-gary-carter-inspired-us-on-and-off-the-field-1.1212257

Just to be clear, I am not the author of the study quoted. The author information is found here. http://asr.sagepub.com/content/72/5/705.short However, you raised an interesting question, some of which is discussed in the paper referenced and linked below: The short answer is yes. Among identical twins, those who played football are 37% more likely to self-report being involved in violence. The following is copied from the 13th page (p798) of the referenced document. "Findings Presented in Table 1 are the results from the logistic regression analysis where the violence indicator variable is used as the dependent variable and the other variables are used as covariates. Most important was the coefficient (i.e., the odds ratio) for the football participation variable. As shown in the table, the odds ratio was positive and statistically significant. The odds ratio revealed that respondents who were involved in football were 37% more likely to report being involved in violence than those who did not play football." "Exploring the Relationship Between Violent Behavior and Participation in Football During Adolescence: Findings From a Sample of Sibling Pairs: Abstract: http://yas.sagepub.com/content/48/6/786.abstract Full text download: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/274388773_Exploring_the_Relationship_Between_Violent_Behavior_and_Participation_in_Football_During_Adolescence_Findings_From_a_Sample_of_Sibling_Pairs

I live in New Jersey in a blue collar town. To me, the biggest differences between my children's and my own youth in rural Minnesota are that there was a lot more unstructured play time, which some of us used to play baseball. Youth baseball (and other youth sports) are also more competitive with a win mentality (as opposed to a learning opportunity) which tends to take the fun out of the game. My daughter is 10 years old and loves softball (probably because I love baseball). If she wants to play high school softball she will need private pitching lessons and to play on club / travel teams. This represents a huge commitment of time and money (about $4000 - 6000 / year). Our parents just needed to buy a glove and some shoes. Baseball has become a rich persons sport in this country because of the decline in rec. leagues, Sunday morning leagues, etc., and opportunities are most afforded to children whose parents can spend lots time and money having them trained when they are young.