Eris

On Fangraphs, the Twins have -50 DRS. The Cubs are at the top of that category with +79 DRS. Although that is bad, most of the damage is caused by just a few players. Grossman -19 Sano -12 D. Santana -10 Nunez -9 Suzuki -6 Polanco -5 Removing the worst 4 players from defense would get the Twins to 0 DRS (which I think is league average). Our projected outfield for next year of Rosario, Buxton and Kepler all have positive defensive runs saved.

Although it is a SSS, Park is likely the best defensive first baseman among the likely candidates (Mauer, Vargas, Park, and we should probably add Sano to this list).

Early on in the process a list (put together by national media types) of top candidates included Kim Ng. I am somewhat disappointed that her name has not been mentioned recently. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Ng http://sonsofsamhorn.com/baseball/majorleaguebaseball/al-east/boston-red-sox/kim-ng-for-red-sox-gm/ I thought she was considered for the Padres and Red Sox GM positions in the past but I can not find any information on that.

Here is an analysis of the Dickey - Syndergaard trade. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/10/23/9589100/dickey-mets-blue-jays-war-trade-syndergaard-darnaud The trade has the potential to be as bad as Ramos and then Span to Washington for Capp and then Meyer. These trades with Washington provided a 20 WAR differential in favor of the Nationals. The Dickey - Syndergaard trade is a 10 WAR benefit towards the Mets with several years of control left for the Mets. I would rather the future Twins follow the Cardinals model of developing through a strong robust farm system rather than that which AA brought to the Jays.

From my perspective, at all levels, most/all of the power is in the hands of the manager. Obviously, for whatever reason, common sense has failed in many levels / organizations. Therefore, at most levels there needs to be some serious discussion about misuse / over use of players. I live in NJ, in high school there are no pitch limits. There are many examples of high school kids throwing 120 pitches a game. It is abuse and needs to stop. I realize the pitch limits is a very controversial topic. All we really know right now is that Tommy John surgeries are on the rise and have become a significant part of the game. (My son's high school team had 2 players with Tommy John). From the Bergen Record: Rob Kaminsky, the former St. Joseph ace and the St. Louis Cardinals’ 2013 first-round pick, is a strong supporter of the new policy. The left-hander, now pitching for Class AA Akron, a Cleveland Indians’ affiliate, called the change “a good step.” “Seeing high school coaches let kids throw 100-plus pitches on short rest is borderline abuse,” Kaminsky said. “You don’t see that even happen in the minor leagues. It’s something that should be addressed, and quite frankly, should have been addressed years ago. (source: http://blogs.northjersey.com/varsity-aces/new-pitch-count-limits-applauded-by-some-ripped-by-others-even-before-njsiaa-devises-magic-number-1.1644885) Even at the major league level there are managers who are less careful than others in managing pitchers. Kerry Woods probably lost millions because of Dusty Baker's decision to have him pitch on a cold windy day in Chicago. Earlier this year there was a lot of discussion on Met fan blogs concerning whether or not Terry Collins should be fired. The argument for him being fired that he had misused his bullpen to the extent that a number of them were ineffective. If we had pitch limits across many levels, but especially in high school, more people would be given the opportunity and therefore learn how to pitch. This should be extended to every non-professional league. In the short term, the quality of pitching would decrease, but in the long term there would be more pitchers. One other issue that is related. Why is the Amateur Baseball association scheduling double headers, especially during playoffs. That also contributes to putting more pressure on coaches to over use players.

I was always under the impression that the decision to move May to the bullpen was based along the lines that May only was effective for 5 innings. Using Fangraphs (2013-2015), as a starter, May started 25 games was 7-14, with at 5.61 ERA and averaged 5.06 innings/game. Compare to Mike Pelfrey started 64 games was 11-27, had a 4.94 ERA and averaged 5.33 innings/game. Tyler Duffy, 29 games, 12-9, 4.90 ERA, 5.49 innings/game. Ricky Nolasco 56 games, 15-22, 5.39 ERA and averaged 5.70 innings/game. Based on this information, May was one of the least effect starting pitchers, despite having the highest K/9 on the staff (Berrios is tracking slightly better in K/9). More importantly, May gave the least innings as a starter. I think we can all agree that Nolasco and Pelfrey did not have a very successful Twins career, yet their numbers are better than Mays and they got deeper into the game (although Pelfrey just barely). Where I agree with the discussion on this board is the May should have been stretched out especially given this dreadful year. Because he has the stuff to be a very good pitcher, he needs to get deeper into the game and in a lost year this could have been worked on.

Some of these interpretations are skewed by one or two players. I am not sure how you would account for that because it probably does not reflect on the long term abilities of the scouting department. Examples are the Angels drafting Mike Trout. Washington stands out for being able to draft 2 years in a row Harper and then Strausburg. These were no brainer picks. Almost any GM would have taken those two. You would expect the data for the Twins to be bad. We have not drafted an MVP or CY candidate since Mauer and Morneau. Too many first round picks that did not make it. Some were total busts.

Every player, the manager, even the interim GM is playing for a position next year or the following years or for more $$ in arbitration. Don't expect any of them to go out and not try their best.

I think it is very unfortunate the both Mauer and Morneau had their careers severely impacted by concussions. We could also add Corie Koskie to this list. How many other teams in MLB have had their 2 best players impacted in this manner. The Twins, their fans, and all baseball were robbed of two very good players in their prime. This is just plain unlucky and it not necessary to blame anyone. Morneau was was one of my favorite players. I am saddened by what happened. I will root for him wherever he plays. We can not do anything about the unlucky part. However, there is a substantial failure to plan. "Total system failure" is correct. They include: Trading away Wilson Ramos for 1 good year of Capps without have an alternative MLB capable catcher in the system. Failure to draft a develop any good starting pitchers since Brad Radke. Failure to draft/trade/sign as FA a decent shortstop since Christian Guzman. Trading away Denard Span for someone they have not been able to develop. And the number of prospects who spend time on the 25 man roster but don't know the fundamentals of baseball. Hopefully, these are what Terry Ryan is being held accountable for and there should also be plenty of coaches and scouts in the system being asked about their contributions to to "total system failure."

One of the challenges in signing Ian Desmond was his qualifying offer. The Rangers gave up the 19th overall pick in this years draft for Desmond. As only the top 10 slots are protected, the Twins would have lost their 1st round pick (15th overall, used to draft Alex Kirilloff). There are many problems with the qualify offer. As it relates to Ian Desmond, only a team that was 1 or 2 players away from competing for a World Series run would / should give up a first round pick. From this perspective the Rangers made a wise choice. From the Twins perspective, with Ian Desmond, they would have maybe the 3rd or 4th worst record in baseball rather than the worst. An improvement from the current dreadful situation, but not enough to justify losing a first round selection. The Rangers can "recoup" their lost pick by making Desmond a qualifying offer after this season, but then must be prepared to pay him close to $16 million.

Peak value is often only determined in hindsight. In hindsight, Plouffe should have been moved at the trade deadline last summer when the Twins were in the middle of a pennant race (or at least thought they were). The value this past winter for 3rd basemen was not very good. For example, look at what the Reds got in return for Todd Frazier, someone who is a much better offensive and defensive player than Plouffe. Frazier was also available at the trade deadline last summer and he wasn't moved, presumably because the Reds where not happy with what offered. The Mets need at 3rd baseman. It was reported that they made inquiries about Danny Valencia (but not Plouffe). If the Twins put Plouffe on waivers, would he clear waivers?

Learning how to take quality at bats should be a requirement at the major league level. For whatever reason, Arcia was not able to make the adjustments necessary to improve his hitting. It is about time that the Twins either send to the minors or release players who are not willing or able to do this.

I would extend the timeline to 1988 and include Tom Herr as the worst 2B and possible the worst Twin of all time. His stats were much better than I remember them BA 263, OPS 679 in 89 games. However, he had a very negative attitude and clearly did not want to play in Minnesota and was not shy about voicing his opinion about this.

Most of this (maybe all of this) is on Meyer. He has two great pitches, if he could consistently throw strikes with both pitches he would be a starter. If he can only throw his fastball for a strike, he might not even make it as a reliever. Compare Meyer to Berrios. Meyer, when he is on, has better stuff than Berrios. What Berrios has though is the ability to consistently throw 3 pitches for strike. Because of his control, Berrios will be a much better pitcher. (A comparison between Duffy and Meyer might be better because both essentially have only 2 pitches)

This means that some of the Twins players are way over matched because they lack plate discipline (Rosario) or can't hit a curveball (Buxton). At some point they need to figure this out or they will be learning this in Rochester. My list to send down would be Rosario, Buxton and Park, in that order. I would have the least amount a patience with Rosario, in part because he has spent most of last year in the majors. I would give Buxton about another month. The difficulty for the Twins is that unless one of Rosario, Buxton or Kepler starts playing well, they do not have many options. If Kepler plays well, I would be inclined to send Rosario down. This was a nice spreadsheet. Simple and to the point and highlighting a potentially major issue for the Twins.

Rosario is a gamer. He plays the game right. That is why Molitor likes him. He has one blemish on his record for substance violation (marijuana?) Why would we want to trade some like this? He should be a fixture in the Twins outfield for years. The Sano experiment is just that. An experiment and in the end Sano will be at first or a DH, the present log jam is only temporary. I look forward to a Twins outfield of Rosario, Buxton and Kepler.

One aspect that supports the "Twins System is Broken Theory" is that they have been fleeced on many of their trades in recent years which suggests deficiencies within the organization in evaluating talent. There is a separate (although older) thread on this topic so I won't rehash old arguments. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/20486-the-twins-capabilities-results-for-acquiring-talent-through-trades/?hl=eris&do=findComment&comment=414599

I enjoyed this article. Thank you. Hire an advanced sabermatrician to be incorporated into the scouting system with the goal of projecting future late round draft picks that will profile as top of the rotation starting pitchers.

Rosario had a 2.3 WAR last year, which ranks him at 42nd among outfielders in WAR. Carlos Gomez had a WAR of 2.6. Alex Gordon 2.8, Ben Revere 1.9. I am not sure why people are so down on Rosario, as a rookie, he was an average or slightly better that average MLB outfielder. His ISO is 0.192 which is ranked 23rd (ahead of George Springer). He had 11 DRS, which is ranked 15th among all outfielders. He has areas for improvement such as a K% (24.9) that is too high and a BB% (3.2) that is too low. Go back and watch some to the throws he made from the outfield last year. The baserunners are probably still shaking their heads wondering what happened. Rosario had 16 assists from the outfield last year (which ranks 3rd among all outfielders). Despite is deficiencies, Rosario is a decent outfielder and an all-around decent player not great at anyone item but better than average at most. He also has seems to have a great baseball sense. I believe that somewhere on the TD boards is an article describing Rosario as a Molitor type player. I believe that he will be in the Twins outfield for a long time. Note for the fangraphs data, I used 400 PA as Rosario did not meet the qualified.

A different way of looking at this is 12% of the plays are then determined by fielders capabilities. In a typical (?) game, 40 AB with 10Ks means 30 balls in play. 12% of that is about 4 plays / game. This is about 640 plays per year. How many times is a close game decided on one play made or not made. I think it is quite a few. As an example the 2015 World Series outcome is probably changed based on 3 plays that the Mets failed to make. Cespedes not catching the inside the park home run leading off the 1st game. Murphy's error. Lucas Duda's throwing error. There is also the failure to pick off the runner at 2nd in one of the games. Over a course of the 162 game season, winning 10 games is very significant.

Another potential issue that drives the age towards younger players is the travel schedule. Years ago it was that every get away game was an afternoon game. The lack of afternoon getaway games poses additional and very significant demands on sleeping schedules. For example, any team playing a night games followed by a 3 hour flight would expect to get to their hotels at 4 or 5 in the morning. The older you get, the more brutal this schedule becomes. This couples with the elimination of certain stimulants also gives an advantage to younger players.

There are several decent articles that try to address this. The short answer is that there does not appear to be a correlation between height and various parameters associated with pitching effectiveness or durability. The first article written by Glenn P. Greenberg indicates there is a positive correlation between **The taller he is, the higher the round he would be drafted ** The taller he is, the more likely he would become an established major league starting pitcher http://sabr.org/research/does-pitcher-s-height-matter He also mentions that the rule doesn't seem to apply to LH pitchers, presumable because of the scarcity of LH pitchers http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/offseason-notes-a-graph-of-pitcher-height-vs-gb/

Maybe this is posted somewhere on TD. In January 2015 there was an article posted in USA today evaluating large $ value contracts for pitchers. There are not many success stories? The challenge with many of the free agents is that with few exceptions there performance starts dropping with age. And it is often not known until hindsight who will perform well in their mid 30's. http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/01/max-scherzer-james-shields-free-agent-pitchers-contracts-100-million-mlb Because of their lack of success in the post-season, would David Price or Johnny Cueto be available on a 3-4 year contract and therefore potentially with less risk. Although it has been mentioned by others in this forum, I too find the number of pitchers released by the Twins who have found success elsewhere to be disturbing. Granted these are relievers and not true Aces, it indicates that the Twins have difficulty projecting / developing pitchers which bodes very poorly for identifying future talent in trades.

It is also likely that the Twins knew that Perkins was hurt as his performance nose-dived after the All-Star break.

In part, the Twins are doing this by playing better defense. In 2014 their team DRS was -73, 2nd worst in the majors. This year it is -10 (ranked 20th). Still not great, but that is a 63 run differential. The data is from Fangraphs. This should translate into a better record in close games (but I don't know how to find that data). With DRS the worst players on the Twins are D. Santana (-15 and no longer playing regularly at SS), Hunter (-8) and Dozier (-7). The DRS on Dozier doesn't match the eye test as he seems better than a slightly below average defensive 2nd basemen.