2wins87

Cederoth had his first start for the Kernels today. He made it through 4 innings giving up only 1 run but had to work out of a couple jams on the way. He gave up 3 hits, walked 3, and also struck out 3. The run came in the second when he gave up a line drive single to start the inning and walked the next batter. The next batter reached on a bunt, loading the bases with nobody out. However, he successfully limited the damage to one run by getting the next batters to ground out, strike out and fly out respectively. Overall it was a pretty successful first outing, but he'll need to limit the walks in future appearances.

Both Barrie and Gomez signed in early 2014 (before July 2nd), so they are part of the 2013-2014 pool

I hadn't noticed that either, I had to check his splits (does he get an absurd amount of GB?). He had a 37% GB rate in 2013 (actually pretty low) and 48% in 2014 (that is relatively high). Obviously he's not going to maintain a 0% HR/FB rate forever, but as long as his K/BB ratio remains good he should have good results.

Michael Cederoth - RHP Born: Nov 25, 1992 (22 years old) in El Cajón, CA Height: 6'6", Weight: 195 lbs. Drafted: 3rd Round (79th overall) of the 2014 draft as a Junior out of San Diego State Signing Bonus: $704,000 With a fastball that can hit 100 mph (and sits in the upper 90s), Cederoth garnered a lot of attention in the 2014 draft. While projected by some as a first round talent, issues with control and mechanics (the much maligned "inverted-w"), and a consensus that he will end up as a reliever dropped him to the 3rd round, where the Twins were happy to add him to their growing legion of power arms. While he excelled as a closer in his final year of college, the Twins have committed to try to bring him up as a starter, which was his role in his first two years of college. After signing he moved into the rotation at Elizabethton where he was pretty successful. He went 4-2 with a 3.55 ERA in 11 games, starting 10 of them. He struck out 42 in 45 and 2/3 innings, and his walk rate was reasonably good at 3.5 per 9 innings. Cederoth will move up to A-ball this year where he will continue to work as a starter with the Kernels. He may not move quickly through the system if he remains a starter but the payoff could be quite good if he makes it. In addition to the previously noted fastball, Cederoth also has a slider which is unsurprisingly inconsistent, but flashes plus when it is on. He also throws a curveball and a changeup which he will need to refine to be effective against lefties. While the raw stuff to start is there, he will have to make a lot of adjustments. His walk rate was acceptable in the Appalachian league, but he noted that the hitters there were less disciplined than college hitters allowing him to be "effectively wild" against them. With his big frame, it'll be all about developing consistent mechanics. Pre-draft, most scouts saw him as a reliever due to his mechanics and control issues. However, he certainly has the stuff to be a #3 starter and possibly even a #2 if his command improves more than is generally expected.

I'll take Cederoth

Yeah I like them both. I think they both look like marginal major league type players right now, but are just a couple steps from being really solid major league talents. Harrison needs to develop his game power and Walker needs to develop his plate discipline. I think it's interesting that people tend to look at Harrison's production and be a little underwhelmed, but look at Walker and come away impressed. But when you take a holistic look at their production with wOBA or wRC+ they are remarkably similar.

He hasn't performed poorly but when you look past the home runs he hasn't really done anything all that impressive either. Travis Harrison has already been brought up, and they've received a very similar number of plate appearances at every level so it's a good comparison. Harrison actually had a point higher wRC+ than Walker last year. Overall in their minor league careers they've put up very a very similar wRC+. Walker certainly has the edge in defense and baserunning, but at the plate he's had the same output (through different means) as Travis Harrison. Harrison is also a year younger. So Walker's inability to take a walk really limits his offensive output, and given his trouble making contact, I'm not optimistic about how he'll fare against more advanced pitching. He's certainly an interesting prospect, but I don't think we can expect too much if his plate discipline doesn't improve significantly.

Fair enough

I'm not very good at judging prospects based on video, but as soon as I saw that video I thought, "Huh, that swing doesn't look very good to me." This puts it in context. I'm a little surprised by the size of the bonus, but the market for international guys has really exploded over the past 5-10 years. Put into context, $4 million for a guy this year probably isn't even as big as the $3+ million that Sano got 5 years ago. I think the signing is first and foremost about defense. The Twins have signed a number of dominican "shortstops" (Sano, Minier), but most guys don't have any shot at sticking there. It sounds like Javier is a sure bet to stick there and has a good chance of being a plus defender, which is pretty valuable. The Twins must like his makeup a lot. When you are signing a 16 year old, most of their development as a player is going to happen within the organization, so one of the biggest considerations is how a guy is going to work with your coaches. I also don't think speed needs to be a big consideration here. Just because someone is young and athletic doesn't mean they are going to be a burner on the basepaths. For Javier it's more about how his athleticism plays at short.

Who are the other guys you were considering for the list that just missed the cut?

Anyone have any interesting guys that from further down the lists on their radar? I've been intrigued by Alonzo Jones, by all reports the fastest guy in the draft. He sounds like the kind of guy that could shoot up draft boards if he impresses this spring. His short athletic build makes me think of a young Kirby Puckett. Also, "toolsy Georgia prep hitter" sounds awfully like a Twins pick doesn't it?

Just for the record I never said Berrios had 4 plus pitches, I said they projected to be above average to plus, which I think McDaniel would agree to. I think Stewart is in the same place; I've seen different ratings in different places, but they generally say that he has 4 pitches which project to end up somewhere between average and solidly plus. Maybe they could all end up being plus, but I think Berrios could potentially end up there too. Anyway, 4 above average pitches with a couple of plus weapons is still great.

From Kiley McDaniel: "Berrios calls his breaking pitches a slow and fast curveball, but the fast one plays like a slider and both are above average; scouts will call one or the other plus depending on the day, but the slower curve gets the better grade more often. His changeup is above average and may be plus one day, helping to keep hitters off his fastball." So yeah he's got 4 and scouts like all of them.

The vast majority of Twins prospect lists have Berrios, Meyer, and Stewart ranked as the Twins top 3 pitching prospects, many of them slotting them #3-5 in their overall rankings. However, there's really no consensus over who's #3 and who's #5. This isn't really that surprising; while they all have top of the rotation potential, they are much different as prospects. So how do you rank them and more importantly why? My ranking: 1. Meyer For me this ranking is mostly about pure stuff. Neither Berrios nor Stewart will ever touch Meyer's fastball. His slider, while inconsistent, also ranks at the top of the group, and may be similarly untouchable. If it were just about pure stuff it would be an easy choice, but his inconsistency has slid him down a lot of lists. I hesitate to bring up Randy Johnson as is often done here, because he's an anomaly among anomalies, and we shouldn't really expect Meyer to have anywhere near that kind of transformation. But with even a modest improvement in his command I think Meyer will be a very valuable pitcher. I don't know if there are stats to back this up, but it's my feeling that modest improvements in command and consistency are common within a pitcher's first few years in the majors, even for guys that have already celebrated their 25th birthday before making it there. So overall I'm pretty optimistic that Meyer puts it together well enough to become a mainstay in the rotation for years to come. 2. Berrios The one word argument for this ranking would have to be makeup. I think Berrios and Stewart could very easily end up being quite similar pitchers. Both have a mix of 4 pitches that all project to be above average or plus at the mlb level. Berrios is the more polished prospect at this point, but more important to me is everything we hear about his poise and drive on the mound. While his size may limit his ultimate ceiling and durability his makeup gives me a lot of confidence that he'll reach his potential. 3. Stewart As I said above, Stewart's 4-pitch mix projects to play very well in the majors. If anything, being a little bigger and a little more raw than Berrios gives him a good chance of having even better stuff. I'm not really too concerned about some of the rumors of makeup issues, but not having the same glowing reports does make him a little less certain as a prospect to me. The strikeout rates also make me wonder a little, though I'm pretty sure we'll see significant improvement this year. So that's my ranking, tell me where I'm wrong.

It's an interesting list, some of the inputs to their rankings are clearly outdated (Joe Benson), but then they have Poulson at 508, so they must have some sort of report about his fastball. I'm not really sure what to make of it, maybe they catch some info about prospects that others don't, maybe it's completely meaningless.

I also think someone ought to mention Huascar Ynoa, who might actually have more upside than the last three guys on my list. He's very young so it's mostly about projection at this point but he's apparently already flashed three above average offerings.

Talking purely upside and excluding the consensus top 10ish prospects I'd probably go: Hitters: 1. Amaurys Minier - I love a switch hitting power guy, he showed the power was legit from both sides of the plate this year, obviously the question will be about contact 2. Adam Walker - Massive power, great speed, another big question mark around his contact ability) 3. Max Kepler - Not as much power potential as the other guys on the list, but still good overall athleticism. If you are still dreaming on his potential I think he's got a Matt Kemp like body/toolset, maybe not quite as much athleticism 4. Travis Harrison - Figures to have excellent power, but unlike the other power guys on the list he's shown better zone-judgment and contact ability but his power is still mostly projection 5. Lewin Diaz - Huge guy, massive power, won't be worth much defensively which lowers his overall upside Pitchers: 1. Michael Cederoth - The guy can hit 100 and appears to be getting a tryout as a starter, I don't know how no one has mentioned him yet 2. Fernando Romero - If he manages to come back healthy, he's got a mid to upper 90s fastball and potentially plus slider 3. Stephen Gonsalves - He's only got low 90s velocity right now but projects to add a bit more. His secondary stuff shows flashes though 4. Chih Wei Hu - Similar to Gonsalves velocity and development wise, also has a palmball which is apparently a bit different from a normal changeup. He could potentially throw hitters a lot of different looking pitches like some of the other East Asian pitchers to break into the majors recently 5. Tyler Duffy - He threw harder as a reliever, but can still touch the mid 90s as a starter, his secondary stuff seems to be developing decently While the Twins have a slew of relievers with great stuff, I don't put them on this list if they don't figure to start (i.e. they are already pitching in relief roles in the minors). Relievers simply don't figure to have as much overall value as starters.

This is a great topic, really interesting. I'm going to echo most everyone else in saying the hit tool is definitely #1, and also the hardest to measure quantitatively (Ok, maybe fielding is harder). I was also thinking that position makes a pretty big difference. I'd say arm can be fairly important for SS, 3B, and C somewhat important for 2B and OF (only somewhat for OF because it just doesn't come into play all that often and is totally overshadowed by range) and basically meaningless for 1B. I would also put at least a third of the importance on non-tool skills. In addition to plate discipline there is also baseball IQ, or situational awareness, or focus, or whatever you want to call it that comes into play all the time. It shows up in a guys like Chase Utley who isn't all that fast but for years was one of the most successful base-stealers. I can also think of lots of players, Delmon comes to mind, who often don't seem to know what's going on the time and don't make good plays because of it. I think I'd break it down something like this, with variations in the tools based on position: 20% instincts, focus, etc. 15% plate-discipline 25% hit tool 15% fielding 13% power 10% speed 2% arm

I've mentioned this before, but Rogers is very good at getting ground balls, a skill that is likely to translate to the majors as well. I had him around 20, but I didn't think he had anything more than an average fastball. If he's hitting the mid 90s he has a bit more upside and merits some reconsideration. Although I do wonder if adding velocity is changing his fastball trajectory and his pitcher profile in the process. But if he learns to change speeds effectively he might be able to sneak his fastball by guys some of the time and take a little off to make them pound it into the ground at others. Seth, I know you do a lot more research and have a lot better sources than than us armchair guys, so I always like the surprises on your list.

Pretty sure Tonkin is indeed above the rookie limit. He already had 28 days of service time from last year.' I like the placement of Larson; he's my pick for sleeper prospect next year. I think his numbers would have looked better had his season not been interrupted by injuries. I like Romero and Gilmartin a bit higher, they are in the top 20 for me.

I really like the this part of the list because it always introduces me to guys that aren't even on my radar yet. Looking forward to the rest.

I still have Jorge and Eades in my top 30, but both have had discouraging performances so I understand why they are down here. I think the talent level for both of them merits a bit higher placement, though of course it's next year that will ultimately determine whether they deserve a higher ranking.

I've neglected this thread for a while so I thought I'd add a recap. For the most part, Goodrum's second half hitting line looked pretty similar to his first half. The biggest negatives this season: 1) He had only a .337 OBP. His walk rate was fine at 11.5%, though this was down from his previous two seasons. I might expect someone with his speed to have a better BABIP than his .312, which led to a .249 BA. Maybe he had a bit of an unlucky season? 2) His power was down. His ISO was .087. Some of this might be attributed to playing in the FSL, but he had fewer doubles per at bat than in previous years so it's not like he was having home runs turned into doubles. 3) He's another year older and he hasn't had the breakthrough that many have hoped for. He hasn't played poorly but it's fair to have hoped to see more flashes of brilliance from a guy with his tools. The biggest positives: 1) He led the league with 35 stolen bases and he had a 90% success rate. 2) He cut down on strikeouts, 19.6%, a career best. 3) His defensive consistency improved. He ended the season on a 16 game errorless streak and started July with a 17 game one. He played a decent amount of games at SS in the second half of the season and a few at 2B after playing almost exclusively at 3B in the first half. His future might be as a speedy utility guy. So there are some positive things to take away from this season but overall he just hasn't blossomed yet. I don't know if he showed enough promise to start in AA next season or if the Twins will have him start in Fort Myers again to see if he can have a hot start and push his way up through the ranks. He's certainly still got potential but the time to show it is running out.

Isn't over 5% where they would lose their first round pick?

I think he's a potential innings eating #4 or #5 type, and he could of course move into a long relief LOOGY role if that doesn't stick. I got a chance to catch his last start. I was along the third base which was not the best view, but he seemed to be going mostly fastball/changeup. His fastball was sitting between 86 and 89 according to the ballpark pitch speed (not sure if there's a bias on it), and I saw him hit as high as 91 a couple times. His changeup seemed to be a bit off that night; it sat around 80 or 81 but he was missing with it a lot and I don't remember seeing a lot of swings and misses on it. I also noticed him mixing in a curveball around 78 mph which was probably his better secondary offering that night. I remember at least one swinging K on the curve (which earned everyone in the stadium a free taco), and the opposing batters didn't seem to be able to get real solid contact on it. He's got a pretty compact delivery and it looks like he hides the ball behind his head until the last moment which could add a little deception. I personally think he's got the stuff to make a career in the majors, providing decent value filling out the back of a rotation.