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2wins87

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Everything posted by 2wins87

  1. 2wins87
    This is a bad contract. I don't think it looks worse than Pujols contract does right now. Of course, no one expected that the Pujols contract would look this bad two years after the fact. Pretty much everyone expects this contract to look bad two years from now.
  2. 2wins87
    I'm optimistic, but I'm not 85-wins optimistic. I'll go with 79 wins
  3. 2wins87
    Based on the 20 posters who actually submitted a ballot so far, we would elect: Maddux (100%) Glavine (90%) Biggio (85%) Piazza (80%) Thomas (80%) Morris (years), Mattingly and Palmeiro (votes) are off the ballot. Kent, McGriff, McGwire, and Sosa are precariously close to falling off at 5%. Obviously 20 votes isn't a lot and we have different views from the members of the BWAA, but I think this is still instructive. I think Maddux and Biggio get in easily this year, Glavine probably does too, though it'll be close given it's his first ballot. Thomas has an outside shot, but again, it's his first ballot. I'd be surprised if Piazza actually made it in, I think he continues to get the PED suspicion treatment along with Bagwell. I would be shocked if Bonds or Clemens overcame their involvement with PEDs and were elected, which is borne out by this thread.
  4. 2wins87
    It does have a positional adjustment, but it's also a counting stat. Because of the physical demands of catching, catchers don't play as many games in a season as other position players, even if they stay healthy, and they generally don't play as many seasons. That's not taken into account in the positional adjustment, and I don't think that should be a hinderance to getting the best catchers into the Hall.
  5. 2wins87
    I understand the sentiment that in many cases the Hall is not nearly exclusive enough. But you are arguing for a Hall of Players-Better-than-an-Arbitrary-Threshold-in-Value-as-Determined-by-a-Very-Good-Yet-Still-Imperfect-Measure-of-Value. And this has already been done with more rigor. I think WAR is a good starting place, and don't get me wrong, your method is better than what the writers have actually done in the past and are doing now, but you definitely have to consider the entire story of a player's career, not just their WAR. And my biggest problem with your cutoff is that its the same for catchers and everyone else. You can't honestly believe that Johnny Bench is the only catcher ever who deserves to be in the HOF. Anyway my ballot would be: Maddux Clemens Schilling Mussina Glavine Bonds Bagwell Piazza Thomas Biggio There are a few more on the ballot that are deserving, but those are my first ten. I think the backlog is going to get a lot worse in the next few years as lots of deserving players split the votes of some writers, while others refuse to vote for anyone ever associated with steroids. I would not be surprised if the Hall made some changes to the selection process within the next 5 years.
  6. 2wins87
    Thanks, John. Thorpe is still pitching in the ABL this winter (or I guess summer in Australia), so I'll still have a few more updates. He made his first start with the Melbourne Aces yesterday. Overall he pitched fairly well, giving up 2 runs on 7 hits and a walk in 5 innings. He struck out 3, but was chased from the game after giving up a home run and double to start the 6th. The Aces eventually rallied in the 9th inning to keep Thorpe from getting tagged with a loss.
  7. 2wins87
    It's pretty hard to be in the same category of Buxton and Sano. I don't think his plate discipline really plummeted; it's never been very good and it really got exposed against some of the best minor league pitchers. He does still have incredible contact ability and surprising pop. Though I wouldn't disagree with starting him in AA until midseason or he starts forcing the issue.
  8. 2wins87
    He will probably be ok, but this would be the epitome of an unexciting signing
  9. 2wins87
    Yeah it's never too early, where else are we supposed to misdirect our energies right now? Also, I remember there being a fair amount of dissension on a HS pitcher being the consensus #1 pick, seeing as it's (still) never happened
  10. 2wins87
    I'll definitely take under. He doesn't strike out tons of guys and it'll almost certainly drop in the majors, but 7 K/9 isn't too bad. In addition, he's definitely a ground ball pitcher; about 50% groundballs this year. If he can keep getting groundballs and striking out a few he'll be a solid back of the rotation starter. Mid 4 ERA, low 4 if he has some luck.
  11. 2wins87
    It's a bit hard to say without seeing the rest of the list, but they probably would be higher on my list if I tried to rank out to 50. Probably not until at least the late 20s on either though. Love the upside on Slegers and from what I've heard about Turner, even if he only hits like Drew Butera he'll still be as good as Drew Butera overall. That's not too exciting, but it's a good guy to have. Agreed. These lists are always a lot of fun. I appreciate the work Seth.
  12. 2wins87
    Yeah, I actually found it in BBref's game logs now also. His splits in A+: 33.8% GB, 55% FB, 11.3% LD and in AA: 34.4% GB, 48.4% FB, 17.2% LD The biggest difference was a 2.4% HR/FB in A+ and an 8.4% HR/FB in AA. I think the AA results are more indicative of what to expect. Only a few pitchers have started regularly in the majors over the past 4 years with a K/9 less than 7 and a GB rate less than 35%: Kevin Slowey, Bruce Chen, and Travis Wood. I'll definitely be watching his GB and K rates next year.
  13. 2wins87
    Does anyone know Baxendale's groundball/flyball profile? I'm wondering because while his ERA was great in Ft Myers his strikeout rate was kind of meh. Not bad but not great. So was he getting a lot of groundballs or was he the beneficiary of the dimensions of Hammond Stadium? If his K numbers eventually drop off from 7+ per 9 in A+ ball to 5ish per 9 in the majors he'll probably need to get a lot of groundballs, even in a pitcher's park like Target field.
  14. 2wins87
    I was a little surprised that Thorpe was as high as he was, given that John is usually pretty conservative on guys in the lower levels. He must have heard a lot of really good things about him.
  15. 2wins87
    I was just about to post this but you beat me to it. The #3 or #4 ceiling for Jorge probably sounds a little disappointing to many of us that have been following him. Turner sounds like Butera but with a hope to hit better.
  16. 2wins87
    Ok, Ryan deserves ridicule for that statement. Still, I think the Twins will spend well over $21 million on free agent contracts for next year alone; I'd guess a bit over $30 million in obligations for 2014. They've got the payroll space and the FO has been making comments indicating that they want to spend this off-season. And I do realize that many of you will find my optimism absurd, so we'll just have to see what happens.
  17. 2wins87
    Badler also published a list of ten sleepers from the GCL. Fernando Romero and Minier both make the list. On Romero: He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and touches 95, and most scouts expect him to throw harder in the future. His curveball has developed into a sharp, power curve that misses bats. There's still some debate over whether he ends up as a reliever due to questions about his changeup and command. On Minier: Plus raw power, but still questions on his ability to hit in games. Has the arm strength for third but he's going to have to watch his body or he may end up at first.
  18. 2wins87
    Thorpe was named the #7 prospect in the GCL by Baseball America. The writeup contains some good new scouting tidbits. 1) He's now listed at 6'1", 214 lbs. He turns 18 in November, so he could easily still have some growth left in him. 2) His fastball was sitting between 88-93 in the GCL and he's touched 95. Not only that, but he adds deception with an explosive release that makes it look faster than it is and some good late movement. 3) His changeup is his most polished off-speed pitch. Badler calls it a potential plus pitch. 4) He's throwing both a curveball and a slider right now. Both have a lot of spin and downward action.
  19. 2wins87
    Probably not too many names you've heard (yet): XXVI IBAF 18U Baseball World Cup - USA
  20. 2wins87
    After completing his season with the GCL Twins, Thorpe headed to Taichung, Taiwan for the 18U World Baseball Cup. He only pitched in one game, but it was a great performance in a big game, going 5.2 innings, giving up 5 hits, no runs and striking out 8 to lead the Aussies to a 1-0 upset of the US team, which eventually went on to win the tournament. He'll spend the next month at the Twins' Instructional League in Ft Myers.
  21. 2wins87
    I agree with you on May. He's been inconsistent, but he's a big guy with good stuff. I'll give him more time to improve his command and still like him in the top 10. I'd have Polanco higher, I really like him, even after he's moved off of short. I think you're a bit bullish on the young pitchers, but I guess that's preference. I do think we'll see at least one of them really establish himself next year and make a bid for the top ten, but it's pretty hard to rank them before they've pitched in full season ball. One guy that you didn't mention who probably sneaks into my top 20 is Niko Goodrum. Given his tools, I think he's done well enough to hold onto a solid prospect status, and the Twins seem committed to keeping him at short. This next year could be a make-or-break year for his status as a prospect though.
  22. 2wins87
    Also add Josh Johnson to the list of interesting free agents who can miss bats but is difficult to value. Looks like a good "buy low" candidate due to bad luck.
  23. 2wins87
    And how about, according to the same ESPN home run tracker, hughes has given up 5 homers in Yankee stadium (all to right field) that would have been a home run in 8 or fewer parks under "normal" conditions (including one that shouldn't have even been a home run in Yankees Stadium). I think it's reasonable to assume that none of those would have been home runs at Target Field.
  24. 2wins87
    Torre is a pretty good example of this case (903 G@C, another 1100 mostly at 1B and 3B). He got 22% of the vote in his final year on the ballot, and didn't crack 15% before that. Mauer just passed Torre, and has played 920 G@C so far. If he never played another game at catcher, I could see him ending up with very similar WAR and JAWS, probably a bit higher. Torre was arguably slighted by the voters somewhat; he is in the Hall of Stats. But moving away from catcher definitely seems to have hurt his case. Right now, I think Mauer is still a borderline case. The traditional voters will definitely like his batting titles and MVP, though 6 ASGs is quite low for any position and his counting stats, especially HR, are well below average. The statistically inclined voters will see his value, though I'm not sure he's accumulated enough career value yet. If he plays another 2-3 years mostly at catcher I think he'll be a lock. Or if he plays another 5-6 mostly not at catcher, he'll probably still be a lock. Either way, as a squeaky clean guy who's never had any controversy whatsoever with the media, I think he'll outperform many contemporaries with comparable advanced stats in the vote.
  25. 2wins87
    Average age for batters is 21.3 (not sure if that was in April or now). So he's around average. I still don't think he'll be sniffing any top 100 lists, I don't think he'd be a top 3 prospect in many systems. I think Gibson will be on some lists if he's still eligible. Other than that May will probably be a bubble guy sitting on the outside based on the attention payed to him in the past and some flashes of really good stuff this year. Polanco could also be just on the outside of 100, though I haven't heard too much about him from any of the national media outlets.
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