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2wins87

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Everything posted by 2wins87

  1. 2wins87
    Harrison has continued to slump. So far in August he's batting just .213/.322/.253, and has no home runs. Even the best major leaguers go through slumps, so in this stage of his development a prolonged slump is more of a learning experience than anything. Hopefully he will manage to get himself out of it before the end of the year. One positive is that his patience at the plate hasn't really diminished throughout his slump. He is striking out a bit more, which is to be expected, but his walk rate has increased slightly since the start of his slump.
  2. 2wins87
    Two more great appearances for Thorpe in the last week.First, on Monday, he went 3 and 1/3 in relief of Alex Meyer (who was making a rehab start). The only baserunner he allowed was a hit-batsmen, and he struck out 6 en route to his 4th win. The GCL Twins' pitching staff struck out 18 hapless GCL Rays in the victory. Yesterday he started once again, going 4 innings, allowing one hit, one walk, and one hit-batsmen while striking out 9. His K-BB ratio is now 64-6 in 44 innings pitched.
  3. 2wins87
    Thorpe was handed his first loss in yesterday's game, in one of his few starts where he hasn't been brilliant. He went 4 innings, surrendering 3 runs on 3 hits (1 home run) and 2 walks. It was the first time he's given up more than 1 walk in a game. He also struck out 3. His start last week, however, was another brilliant one. He picked up a win pitching 5 innings, giving up 2 unearned runs on 4 hits and a walk, while striking out 8. Here are some totals for the year:[TABLE] IPERAH/9HR/9BB/9K/9GB%FB%LD%IFFB%36.22.457.60.51.212.044.3%33.0%22.7%20.7%[/TABLE]
  4. 2wins87
    Harrison has continued to struggle a bit in the first week+ of August. He's 8 for 34 with 2 doubles, 3 walks, and 10 strikeouts.There are about 3 and 1/2 weeks left on the Cedar Rapids schedule; hopefully he can get hot before the Kernels head into the playoffs.
  5. 2wins87
    Thorpe made his 5th start and 8th appearance yesterday. He was plenty rested having had 6 days off since he pitched two inning in relief last Wednesday. I imagine the Twins aren't going to let him throw too many pitches since he's still just seventeen. He earned his first win of the year in his relief appearance, and first win as a starter yesterday, for what that's worth. He went 5 innings, giving up 4 hits and striking out 4, once again issuing no walks. He's now gone 15 and 1/3 inning since last walking a batter. Now on the season, he's gone 27 and 2/3 innings, giving up 24 hits, only one home run, and walking just 2 while striking out 38.
  6. 2wins87
    It's been a while since I've updated. The season is dragging on into August and it might be showing a bit for Harrison, who's in a bit of a power slump in his first year in full-season ball. His totals for the month of July are a .250/.406/.333 triple slash (.739 OPS) with just one double and two home runs. His OPSs for the previous 3 months were .860, .894, and .871. His strikeout rate was also higher than in his previous three months, though his walk rate was as well. The good news is that he committed just 3 errors over the entire month, so he seems to be finding more consistency on the field, and his range factor per game is at 2.49 on the year (the MLB average for this season in 2.48), so he's getting himself plenty of opportunities. On the year he's batting .267/.379/.466 with 15 HRs in 421 PAs, with a 12.6% walk rate and a 23.0% strikeout rate.
  7. 2wins87
    Seems to be a bit of a streaky player. Crazy good when he's on though.
  8. 2wins87
    Thorpe got a mention in BA's hotsheet this week. I don't know if Badler is working with any newer scouting reports, but he called his changeup a potential plus pitch and said he had a low 90's fastball which might mean he's hitting 90-92 more consistently. His curveball was said to be "improving." I am definitely hoping faces some hitters in the Appalachian League this year. I'm of the opinion that age to league matters less for young pitchers, and as long as they are having success they should be moved up quickly.
  9. 2wins87
    Thorpe was touched for 4 hits and teed up for his first HR allowed in his 6th appearance of the year today. He went 4 innings, and despite giving up 3 runs he sustained his impeccable command striking out 6 and walking none. While he looked like an extreme ground ball pitcher in his first couple of appearances, he's started giving up more fly balls and line drives recently. Because I am a baseball nerd, I went through the game logs to calculate his true GB%, FB%, and LD%. His GB% is at 41%, just below mlb average, his FB% is at 29% and his LD% is at 31%. The line drive percentage is somewhat high, but his strikeout rate is still awesome, so I'm guessing one of his secondary pitches is generating a lot of whiffs while the other is getting hit pretty well, though with no scouting reports this is just a conjecture. His HR/FB ratio is still good at 7% and his IFFB% is a fantastic 29%. Oh yeah, and his K-BB ratio is a pretty frakking majestic 31-2 in 20.2 IP.
  10. 2wins87
    In the DSL the biggest signings from last year are Rainis Silva ($175,000), a supposedly defensively oriented catcher who's holding his own with the bat. Johan Quezada ($150,000), a 6'6", 18-year-old pitcher who so far hasn't been good. And Antonio Tovar ($100,000), and outfielder with a big frame who also hasn't been good so far. Two guys that I know nothing about that have been good so far are Alexis Tapia, a RHP, and Frank Encarnacion, an outfielder. Both are 17 years old.
  11. 2wins87
    First, the Twins need a backup infielder, who better to fill that roll than a veteran. Why would you release Carroll so that Beresford can sit on the bench in the majors? And to be realistic his ceiling is probably around a Jamey Carroll type player; good defense, hits enough to stick around, maybe even start, but with no power. He's not going to take a job away from any starters at this point.
  12. 2wins87
    Gruver, Jones, Hicks and Williams were all getting a bit old for their level. Gruver is already getting old for A+. The difference is mostly about age and the Twins wanting to get their older prospects moving faster. This will not hurt Polanco or Walker's development. Also I'm not sure who would be playing for Cedar Rapids if the Twins were to promote half of their roster.
  13. 2wins87
    Thorpe pitched another excellent 3 and 2/3 innings yesterday. He gave up 1 run on 3 hits; the run was scored as unearned due to a passed ball that allowed a runner to advance to second base. He struck out 5 and walked none. His yearly totals: 16 2/3 IP, 15 H, 0 HR, 5R (4 ER), 2 BB, 25 SO He's young, so it wouldn't hurt to keep him in the GCL for the rest of the year, but his numbers are almost as good as Berrios's were in the same amount of innings before he was promoted to Elizabethton last year. Thorpe is 6 months younger than Berrios was, but I've got to think he's a candidate for advancement if there is space in Elizabethton.
  14. 2wins87
    The hits just weren't falling in for Harrison over the past week. He had just 2 singles on the week, but still managed to get on the base-paths a lot by drawing 7 walks. His triple slash line is now at .269/.377/.488. He's been improving his ability to get on base through walks all season, and among current Kernels with at least 100 PA his 12.0% walk rate ranks 4th behind Williams, Grimes, and Goodrum.
  15. 2wins87
    I was too young to really be paying attention to the draft at this point, but I certainly remember the drought of futility in the second half of the 90's. 7 top ten picks between 1994 and 2001, netting Cuddyer and of course Mauer (along with some ugly busts too). The current stretch isn't even half as long yet, and hopefully it ends pretty soon. I actually have quite high hopes for 2014 (not World Series high but I think contending is certainly possible; going to need pitching help of course)
  16. 2wins87
    The Twins can always use more front end pitching, but I really like the idea of an advanced college shortstop with some serious tools.
  17. 2wins87
    This guy seems to think he's figured out the over-spend strategy: http://www.bleachernation.com/2013/07/04/loopholing-an-explanation-for-the-cubs-international-spending-approach/ Basically spend big one year, then sign some guys for around $250,000 next year and trade away the rest of your pool for other prospects. Would that work? Potentially. There is a limit to how much pool a team can trade for, but I haven't heard of any limit to how much they can trade away, whether they find the right trading partners is another part of the story. It's hard for me to see it really making a huge difference in the long run. They still won't be able to get their favorite player from next year's class, so I don't know if that strategy would really net them any more of their favorite prospects. Who knows what the Rangers and Cubs are actually thinking.
  18. 2wins87
    Of course it's not necessarily true that if the Twins do poorly this year they will do poorly next year, but it sure is a lot more likely. If someone has the time to check the correlation between the previous season's record and this season's record vs the previous season's farm system ranking and this season's record I'd be interested, but I doubt I'd be surprised. By saying I'd like to see the Twins players establish themselves I mean that I'd actually like to see them perform better than they already have not just maybe show signs that they might be better players next year. And while that does not necessarily mean that the Twins will end up with a better record this year, it sure is a lot more likely.
  19. 2wins87
    That's true, we probably shouldn't be disappointed with a similar career. Dunn's value according to WAR has been dragged down a lot by poor defense, which Sano's may be too, but hopefully not by as much. If we look just at offensive numbers we would have to be pretty happy with that, though I'm not sure Sano will necessarily walk as much as Dunn does, so his floor is probably still probably lower, though that's still a floor which we should expect him to better.
  20. 2wins87
    I disagree with this. The Royals have been terrible for years because they lack a great scouting and development organization and they've made a lot of bad baseball decisions over the years. They've had plenty of top draft picks (they lost 100 games 4 out of 5 years at one point) and yet it took them a long time to finally build up one of the best farm systems in the league and they are still only a .500 team at this point. The Twin's undoing in recent years are a combination of payroll constraints during the Metrodome era and some decidedly bad trades. But they've got more payroll flexibility now and the scouting and development system are strong. I think they can consistently compete for years without getting a series of top ten picks.
  21. 2wins87
    I definitely understand wanting the Twins to get a good draft pick and being okay with them losing more when they've already started tanking. But there's a lot of time before next years draft, and who knows what will happen with Rodon and the other prospects between then. I don't feel like it really makes sense to think that we need to tank so we can get this one specific guy. Also, the worse the Twins do this year, the worse they are likely to be next year. I'd like to see Dozier cement himself as a solid major league infielder. I'd like to see Hicks continue his turnaround and look like a probable breakout next year. I'd like to see Gibson pitch like a #2 starter on a good team. I'd like to see Morneau get his power stroke back whether or not he ends up back in Minnesota next year. If these things happen the Twins will be better overall this year, but I'll also feel a lot more optimistic about next year. The farm system is already looking good and the Twins already look to have at least a top ten pick next year the way things are going, so I'd rather see some of the current Twins put in solid performances then see the team completely tank and get a higher draft pick.
  22. 2wins87
    I'm not saying BA is the authority on rating prospects, but you dislike them because of how you suspect they would have rated guys that played over half a decade ago? How is that logical? Also, I can think of one guy who's dominated the majors with basically one pitch in recent years and that's Mariano Rivera, I think it's reasonable to be skeptical of most guys with only one pitch in this era. Are you saying Sano or Buxton might get injured playing football? Seems unlikely to me
  23. 2wins87
    Did you actually look at their minor league numbers? Like Nick said Upton did dominate at every level of the minors. Delmon dominated A ball as an 18 year old (albeit with his characteristically bad plate discipline), skipped to AA as a 19 year old and continued to put up the same numbers there. The point is that the step up to the major leagues is bigger than any other that a prospect will make. Even top prospects who perform at every level of the minors don't always do it so well. Having a floor of a productive major league starter isn't such a bad thing. For the record I think they are both going to be significantly better. If you want to talk about ceilings, how about Willie Mays for Buxton and maybe Reggie Jackson with a more walks for Sano.
  24. 2wins87
    As far as absolute floors go, I think Sano's is probably somewhere between a Mark Reynolds and Adam Dunn. The strikeouts are concerning. Reynolds was a 20-30% strikeout guy in the minors but like Sano (and unlike Delmon) knows how to take a walk. I think we would have to be a bit disappointed if Sano turned out like Reynolds or even Dunn, but his power is comparable, and if he can hit even a little better you're already looking at a pretty valuable hitter. For Buxton I think a BJ Upton floor may be a bit ungenerous (which if you ignore this year still looks pretty good). Upton was a super athletic prospect, but Buxton is a step above, he's got Willie Mays like athleticism. I think his floor is maybe Upton's bat with better defense and probably a few more infield hits. If his bat is better then look out.
  25. 2wins87
    Jeff Johnson of the Cedar Rapids Gazette has an article on Harrison: Kernels' Harrison undeterred by who's ahead of him | TheGazette
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