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2wins87

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Everything posted by 2wins87

  1. 2wins87
    A little nit-picky but you have to use PA as the divisor for K%, not AB. Sabato has been striking out in the 30-40% range, not 40-50% as you say. Still not good in the lower levels, and I don't disagree with anything else you've said, but all of those walks affecting the K% calculation have also kept his overall performance from being truly awful.
  2. 2wins87
    I think the main knock on Miranda is that he'll provide minimal defensive value, but I think national evaluators will generally be a bit slow in acknowledging a breakout, even if he was reasonably well regarded early in his professional career. It hardly matters at this point though, he'll have his chance to prove it soon. I think an entirely statistically based approach will love his production this season though. The level of both power (ISO) and contact (K%) just aren't seen very often. And of course he just turned 23. I'm going to be very interested to see how ZiPS and some of the other projection systems treat him for next year. I'm still not entirely convinced on Wallner right now given his strikeout rates, though it's been better in the handful of games since returning from the IL. His left-handedness should give him a better chance of succeeding than a RHB with a similar profile though, and his raw power is undeniable.
  3. 2wins87
    Good buy low pick. Seems like maybe he'll require a little bit of leftover money if he wants to rebuild his value and can leverage that. I like the idea in the 11th round though.
  4. 2wins87
    This front office definitely likes college pitchers with big frames, and he certainly fits that bill. They haven't been able to improve all of them, but we've seen some success with Winder being the prime example, and the potential is certainly there with Hajjar. I expect they will have drafted a few more pitchers that fit that description before the day is done.
  5. 2wins87
    Hajjar at 61 seems to be fitting back into this regime's MO. Good pitching frame, one good secondary already, the coaching staff probably think they could add some velocity and will need to refine a third pitch.
  6. 2wins87
    What's the story on Cavaco's early exit? Hopefully nothing serious.
  7. 2wins87
    I didn't see the whole start but it looked like they were having him throw a lot of sliders, especially early in counts, and he was having trouble getting strikes with them, leading him to fall behind a lot. He still needs to be able to get strikes with his third best pitch too, but I'm not too worried that he'll be able to throw strikes with his 4-seamer and "splinker" based on this start, or his previous starts where he was utilizing them a lot more.
  8. 2wins87
    He had a pretty solid August, and was really good in the playoffs for Pensacola despite not being called up until the last game of the regular season. Interestingly, he's been an absolute playoff monster in his minor league career, even going back to 2018 when he had a pretty rough regular season: https://www.milb.com/stats/florida-state/2018/postseason-cumulative I don't really think we should read too much into minor league playoff performance, though we can certainly include it the full picture of their yearly performance. Still he seems to have a knack for performing in big spots, evidenced again this week by his huge 2-run bomb against a pretty solid relief prospect who had Wichita down to their last out. I could see him really jumping on his first opportunity in the majors when that call eventually comes. He's really looking like a great overall hitter now after a few years of not quite living up to the potential that was there.
  9. 2wins87
    The craziest thing to me is Julien's 8 for 8 stealing bases. I wasn't under the impression that he had anything better than average speed. Is he faster than I thought or is he just picking spots really well?
  10. 2wins87
    Not very excited about any of the three early round DH-type college bats (Rooker, Wallner, Sabato) taken by this front office right now. All of them strike out too much. We've seen Rooker get pretty exposed against MLB already. I have a hard time believing Wallner or Sabato will fare any better given the amount of swing and miss in A ball.
  11. 2wins87
    Yeah Lynn came in pissed about his off-season negotiations and never wanted to play for the Twins when they had him. No need to bring that energy back. Their pitching depth looks to be replenishing now anyway. Knock on wood they won't really need another arm in the rotation.
  12. 2wins87
    I don't really think there was any new information, it just sort of crystallized for everyone how unlikely he actually was to be a starter in the majors. I don't think there was any real red flag in his MRI or anything (both Boston and LA still wanted him, just in a different package). I think Boston just started thinking about it harder and realized that him being a starter just wasn't that likely--something the Twins' front office seemed to realize faster than most everyone else. The prospect rankers also probably thought about it more and downgraded him accordingly. He's still the same pitcher he was a month ago, everyone is just a little more clear-eyed about what that is.
  13. 2wins87
    I go back and forth on them. I still like Kirilloff's upside more, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Larnach hit the ground running in the majors moreso than we often see with prospects. Just kind of feels like he'll be able to hit at any level as he moves up steadily.
  14. 2wins87
    They already had Duran ahead when they released the Twins list a few months ago (and ahead of Graterol IIRC - though Graterol seems to have gotten a recent downgrade due to the fact that it's becoming clearer that he probably wont start). They grade out each of Duran's pitches higher than Balazovic's, so that is probably why they have him higher. Balazovic edges him out on command, but overall the upside on Duran looks a lot higher if those grades are accurate. They probably got to see him pitch a few times last year, and also talk to a lot of scouts to get an idea of how his stuff usually looks. They also get input on their rankings from team insiders (this guy is too low or this guy is too high), so part of it is often based on the team's own internal evaluations. Based on the little snippets we hear from the front office, it's clear they really like Duran, and I'd be surprised if he was worse than 4th in their own internal valuations (even when they still had Graterol). I wouldn't be surprised to find out that they rank him ahead of one or two of the big three position prospects either.
  15. 2wins87
    As others have said, the Twins left-handed (and switch) hitters are no slouches. Non-issue.
  16. 2wins87
    Apparently it is their third round pick according to the updated draft order, which will probably be final: https://www.mlb.com/draft/2020/order I don't see why this is from the rules that I've read but I'll take it Picking 27th 60th and 67th isn't bad. They have an opportunity to maybe do something a little more interesting with the 60th and 67th selections, which will be slotted around $1 million each.
  17. 2wins87
    I expect a minor move when Hill goes on the 60 day DL. Basically a small guarantee to a veteran pitcher, who will compete with Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer, and Graterol during spring training, and may or may not make the 26 man roster when the season starts (and will be able to sign elsewhere if he does not). I think Falvey and Levine are comfortable relying on their development of rookies, though their MO during the last few years has been to add depth as a backup.
  18. 2wins87
    My reading of the rules is that they lose their "third-highest selection", which would be the competitive balance pick since it comes before the 3rd round. Maybe there are some other rules I'm missing, but I'm guessing that whatever article that came from confused "third-highest" with "third-round".
  19. 2wins87
    I already accounted for that
  20. 2wins87
    After signing Donaldson and the Astros' loss of picks as a sign stealing punishment, the draft order has shifted some. The Twins will lose their competitive balance B pick (which hasn't yet been updated since it's not official). They should pick 27th, 60th, and 99th. If Ozuna re-signs with the Cardinals this should not change, if he signs with the Rangers they will lose their second round pick and the Cardinals will gain one after the competitive balance round B, and the Twins picks should be 27th, 59th, and 99th.
  21. 2wins87
    Yelich was already a very good player in Miami, this article understates his talent quite a bit. Here's an age by age comparison: Age 21: Yelich - 118 OPS+, 1.8 fWAR; Kepler - Minors Age 22: Yelich - 118 OPS+, 4,1 fWAR; Kepler - -34 OPS+, -0.1 fWAR Age 23: Yelich - 120 OPS+, 2.4 fWAR; Kepler - 93 OPS+, 1.3 fWAR Age 24: Yelich - 134 OPS+, 5.4 fWAR; Kepler - 94 OPS+, 1.5 fWAR Age 25: Yelich - 117 OPS+, 4.6 fWAR; Kepler - 98 OPS+, 2.7 fWAR Age 26: Yelich - 166 OPS+, 7.6 fWAR; Kepler - 121 OPS+, 4.4 fWAR The main difference is that Yelich has always hit the ball incredibly hard. Every year that statcast tracks he's been in the top 10% of the league for average exit velocity, usually in the top 5%. Kepler has never been in the top 10%. Not to rag on Kepler who became an excellent player last year, but he basically only reached the level of player that Yelich was in Miami, and I don't see how he reaches present day Yelich territory without increasing his exit velocity by several MPH or making some other drastic change in his contact rate and/or plate discipline, and I don't know how that happens.
  22. 2wins87
    Biggest major league surprise has to be Polanco, who has been excellent despite never gaining much national recognition as a prospect. Biggest MLB bust is probably Meyer, though that was in large part due to injury. Jury is still out on Gordon and Stewart, though they are looking like busts too.
  23. 2wins87
    Kepler was only ranked in the national publications one year, and Gordon was ranked essentially just as high as Kepler's BA ranking by both mlb.com and BP at some point. Gordon was more highly regarded as a prospect for longer, maybe it was never correct but it was true. Gonsalves never really ranked very highly nationally, so I would probably bump him to the honorable mentions to put Graterol somewhere on this list, who will probably be ranked in the 30-50 range for the second consecutive year.
  24. 2wins87
    Obviously depends on what the development staff thinks, but if there's any chance that he'll be better than Dobnak or Thorpe as a starter to begin the season, then they have to try that out. We already know Pineda will be out and the back of the rotation is still very unsettled. There is no reason to hold back at the beginning of the season because of an innings limit. If he is good enough to get the innings he could be a very good part of the bullpen after Pineda comes back and potentially be an injury replacement later in the season.
  25. 2wins87
    Here's the up-to-date order that will change a little bit once Donaldson and Ozuna sign: https://www.mlb.com/draft/2020/order The Twins pick 27th, 61st, 69th, and 101st as of now.
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