diehardtwinsfan

When I did my offseason plans for the Twins last year, it involved getting rid of a lot of the guys from last year's pen and letting some of the rookies (Tonkin, Oliveros, Achter, etc.) take their lumps in the big leagues. Admittedly, at that time I had no clue that the team would be in playoff contention come the beginning of August, but still to this day I think it was a bad decision not to bring a few of these guys up and let them cut their teeth. While I'm not sold on any of them per say, these guys have all pretty much proven themselves at AAA (and some of them have done this for years now) and need to be given an extended shot in the majors. It does take time to develop. I'd have much rather had a guy like Tonkin in that mop up role than say Stauffer, Boyer, or Duensing (though in Boyer's defense, he wasn't that bad at the beginning of the season). My biggest concern for 2016 is that we will be right back there because we didn't invest adequately in our younger talent. Our pen that we can count on will consist of Perkins, Jepsen, Fein (I think), and O'Rourke. Only one is a back of the pen option, and O'Rourke is more of a specialist (though he looks like very good LOOGY long term). I think there are bullets in the system that can compliment Perkins, but they are either too far away (Peterson, Burdi, Reed, Chargois) or will likely need to take some lumps before they can succeed (Tonkin, Oliveros, Achter). While I'm not a fan of paying a lot to get relievers, I do think there's something to be said about the value of having 2 or 3 shut down options in the pen. My fear is that we really won't get to that point until after we've been contending for a few years, and I'd rather not be trading guys like Hu/Tapia to get them.

For what it's worth, it sounds like scouts aren't a fan of Hu as much as we are. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/7/31/9081439/rays-trade-kevin-jepsen-twins-prospects-chih-wei-hu-alexis-tapia Still not sure I like it, but it does put things in perspective a bit.

yeah probably. I could see him shifting to a relief role for a bit to keep the innings down.

I guess I have to disagree here. I think there's some 20/20 hindsight that tends to ignore some things. He was a top 100 prospect coming off of a very good year and rocketed up into the top 50 in most lists. He has top of the rotation stuff to go with it in an org that was lacking in pitching prospects. There's a saying among minor league prospectors that there's no such thing as a pitching prospect. Acquiring a guy such as Meyer was desperately needed and guys like Meyer aren't typically for sale. Lest we forget, Span had his share of question marks at that time too and didn't exactly get off to a great start in Washington. Given the Twins situation, you do this trade every time.

I could definitely get behind Kimbrel, but for Kepler? Unless the Twins think Kepler is a mirage and are selling high, I'd probably look to send a lesser prospect for Kimbrel.

Justin Upton makes so little sense to me, and trading Hicks or Rosario for him makes even less. If the Twins want to acquire, it should be for long term pieces at positions of need (catcher in particular), not short term options at positions of strength who have a chance of outperforming him down the stretch. Add to it his .767 OPS doesn't scream help.

The idea of pull vs oppo I think has more to do with hitting what the pitchers give you. Not very many guys can successfully pull a pitch if they get a steady diet of outside pitches, and major league pitchers are good enough to do it consistently if they keep trying to pull it. The goal is to take what the pitchers give as opposed to leaving a hole in your swing. Plouffe and Dozier do that well, which is why they have both turned into very good hitters. That said, I'm with Brock, this meme really needs to die. It just isn't true. Arcia's problem is not that he's a pull hitter. It's that he pulls everything and makes a ton of weak or misses as a result. He has the talent to be one of MLBs better hitters, his minor league numbers certainly say so, but right now I think his problem is unfortunately more mental. I hope he figures it out, he was one of my picks to break out this year, and I think he still can. The idea of a .300/.360/.520 type hitter behind Sano makes me drool, and that's what Arcia can become. I suppose for the right piece, I'd trade him in a heart beat, but I cannot imagine he has much value right now.

Honestly, I'd probably sell this year. I think the team's true colors were somewhat obvious after the last week or so. They are close, but not worth giving up the far for. I wouldn't sell with the idea of blowing it up, but with the idea of picking up controllable pieces for next year and letting a few more kids play. I'd do the following: Shop Plouffe (though I think this is an offseason move)Trade Pelfrey for whatever I can get, hopefully a decent reliever with a couple years of control left.I would listen to offers on Milone too, as I'm assuming Nolasco will still be here next year unless the Twins plan on taking on a bigger contract and offloading his as a part of the deal. This might be the big mistake, but I want May in the rotation next year. Milone might end up being an offseason trade as well, but his value has rebounded and I'd think he'd get a decent return.Any reliever (other than Perkins, Graham, and O'Rourke) would be available, though I doubt there'd be interest in anyone. Several would be DFAd in favor of some of our Rochester options.I would target an 8th inning setup guy or a catcher. Not against a SS, but we do have internal options, all of which will be competing for that spot. If we got a good one for the right price, I wouldn't turn it down, but between Polanco, Santana, and Escobar, as well as the slim (albeit very slim) chance that Dozier could move there, I'd probably put that 3rd on the list of needs. I'd probably let DH be an internal competition between Walker, Arcia, and Vargas once Plouffe is gone. I'd also dangle Kepler for a time machine to bring the 2009 Joe Mauer to play for Minnesota in 2016, but beyond that he's untouchable. The idea of a resurgent Hicks, Buxton, Rosario, and Kepler tandem in the OF makes me drool.

Side note on Kepler, those FTM numbers don't look all that special, but what I noticed last season is that he really turned it up the second half. He was much better than the first half for what it's worth.

Yeah, but I just flipped on gamecast. Given the forum activity of the last few hours... stuck in the airport watching X files >>>> Minnesota Twins baseball. Edit: that and gamecast isn't working well...

Aaron Hicks. .300 hitter.

I could be wrong on the 40 man thing but he was drafted in 2012, and as a college guy, he gets 4 years before he needs to be protected. He's played 3 seasons. As for walker, no one doubts his power. The concern is major league pitcher's ability to pitch to those spots he cannot hit. We will have to agree to disagree on Duffey. He's moved up in my rankings because of those results, but he's not a top shelf rotation guy. Liam Hendricks was pretty awesome in the minors too. Stuff matters.

I really think Tonkin should just be called up and moved into the mop up role. I think he can carry that AAA performance over, but I really think he needs time to adjust. That's something he never really gets at the ML level.

He has adjusted at every level. I see no reason to think that he won't do that here too. The Ks will likely drop. Wouldn't be terribly surprised if the walk rate dropped a bit too as he got more comfortable. I suspect that the selection is very intentional as he's acclimating himself to MLB Pitching.

way too much to give up in my opinion. Weiters hasn't been all that good this year as he's recovering from a pretty tough injury.

I really think Sano is being wasted as a DH. I'm not saying that he's better than Plouffe defensively, but I think that Sano at 3B with Arcia or Vargas at DH >>>> Ploufe at 3B and Sano at DH. I don't think that this will necessarily happen in 2016, but for 2017 and beyond I think that is the right choice, and the only want to let it play out is for those guys to be playing every day in MLB. Add to it the value you'll get trading Plouffe and I think it's a no brainer. Like others, I think you have to listen for offers this offseason. I'd be looking at a catcher or a SS. I think Plouffe could bring one of those home.

Not sure if this is true or not, but I do know that a lot of teams subscribe to it. Berrios needs to start and he needs to get more innings, I don't see the point of putting him in the pen. I have a different opinion for the likes of Duffey and Rogers who are more of the 5th starter type and could use some ML pen experience. But let's remember, these are minor leaguers. I'm not quite certain they will be better than the guys they replace.

Berrios doesn't need to be added this fall. He was a 2012 pick out of HS. He's not required. He will be added when he's ready.

as someone who has taught the ethical hacking/security courses, I'd suggest a passphrase, but this is far more entertaining.

I'd trade Rosario before I traded Gibson personally. He's looking more and more like a #2 type pitcher. You keep someone like him the youth movement. Rosario, while a nice prospect, is more redundant than Gibson.

yeah, percentages don't seem too out of whack. A few years in there that division was pretty good too. Jetlag I'm sure causes an issue. Not so much in day games, but I'd imagine that the night games can be really difficult.

I could get behind that. Story is probably a better SS prospect than Polanco or Santana. Problem is that he's not quite ready for ML. You could probably slot him there next season knowing there's going to be some growing pains.

No way I would move Gibson. Of late, he has been striking out guys, and of late he's pitching like a 2. I get that he's not young, but he's definitely a cornerstone piece under team control through the remaining of his good seasons. You could replace him with May (who I like a lot, and probably more than most people here), but I don't think he's really on the block. It certainly won't help this year. Given Colorado's position, I have a tough time believing they would want Gibson. He's getting expensive by the time they are competing again.

Wow, quite the discussion. I think I'm with Brock that I'd take him for the right price, but let's put a few things in perspective. Colorado is in last place and looking to trade one of their better players. Why they would want Gibson, who is going to be expensive when they are ready to compete again strikes me as a bit odd. I suspect it's posturing. He wouldn't be a bad fit, but he'd be expensive by the time they are competing again. Add to it the other negatives that all teams see. He's expensive, declining, and spends quite some time on the DL. For the record, here's a link to the Rockies' system. It's highlighted by Jon Gray (p), a nice 3B prospect in the upper minors, a couple of nice OF prospects in the A+/AA range, and several good young pitching prospects in the A+/AA range. They have a nice SS prospect in Trevor Story. That's a core that will be arriving and starting their adjustments in the 2017 time frame with a few trickling in next season. Competition wise, they are probably looking to 2018 right now. Add a couple high picks in that timeframe that can be used towards college pitching/bats and they have a nice core. They could probably use some additional depth up the middle, pitching (who doesn't?), and in the OF. On that, our systems line up fairly well. However, I don't see any package around Berrios, Gibson, or Sano. Berrios makes some sense to them, but I don't see the point in getting an established major leaguer in Gibson. Hundley doesn't excite me that much to be very honest. He's having a decent year for a catcher (791 OPS), but that whole home/road thing makes it a bit difficult to quantify. If he wasn't hurt, I would be interested in Adam Ottavino to help with our bullpen, but that's not an option. Latroy Hawkins might not be a bad option either, as he'd be cheap in terms of acquisitions. Rockies trade: Tulo, Hawkins What I'd trade. Ricky Nolasco (more to balance out cash than anything else. Makes the Twins have to cough up more, but it solves a problem for both teams in the short term. Plus, he gets 3 all expense paid trips to LA each year) Danny Santana Travis Harrison Kohl Stewart Adam Brett Walker (imagine the home runs he could hit out there) Hard throwing relief prospect (one of Jones, Reed, Burdi, etc.) That's probably the most I'd do. Not sure if they'd take it or not.

how many more years is Tulo under contract? He's in a decline phase too, and while he's good, this target worries me because it's expensive and not likely to benefit nearly as much as I'd hope.