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diehardtwinsfan

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Everything posted by diehardtwinsfan

  1. diehardtwinsfan
    Yeah, I'd agree there. Only real issue presently is that there's a lot of question marks in the OF, and I'm not even sure I'd call Sano a sure thing at the moment. Sophomore slumps are real and happen. I think Sano will answer some of those questions about himself (and hopefully well), but the OF situation will take some time to figure out. If Sano is playing there for the time being, I'm fine with that. I'm guessing the reality TR saw this offseason is that he wasn't going to get much for Plouffe, at which point, keeping him was the better option. You may see Trevor traded for next to nothing next offseason b/c the team doesn't need him, but I'm not certain this team can say that right now.
  2. diehardtwinsfan
    Side note, there are a number of proshares ETFs out there that work inverse of the market. Those aren't bad investments if you can trade ETFs in your plans. TWM for instance, is up something ridiculous (about 40%) in the last two weeks as it does roughly 2x the inverse of the Russell 2k (which has lost about 20% in the last 3 weeks).
  3. diehardtwinsfan
    I've been doing a lot more trading of late, so I'll simply say this. What you are seeing right now is the beginning. You'd be wise to move your money into a money market for the bulk of 2016. The market is waking up and realizing that nothing was fixed from 2008 and now we've added a ton more sovereign debt to it... debt that some countries aren't going to repay. I wouldn't be shocked in the least if the European crisis comes back in full with defaults from some or all of the PIIGS nations at some point, and that contagion could spread elsewhere too. Cut your losses. You may get a small bounce here given the number of down days, but we are in a full fledge bear market and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the market return to 2008 lows. Buy back in once the damage is done.
  4. diehardtwinsfan
    I'm assuming that means he is officially a relief pitcher. Personally, I'd give him one more shot starting...
  5. diehardtwinsfan
    I was supposed to be in Minneapolis that week for work, but I managed to be able to give it up in exchange for a week in Orlando.
  6. diehardtwinsfan
    problem to me is how many at bats do you give him to see if he has it? 1? 2? 3? A manager isn't going to give the hook after 2 batters, and by the 3rd you're in trouble
  7. diehardtwinsfan
    I have to think Gordon and Jay will be up in the top 3 in 2017, if for no other reason than draft status. If they both do exceedingly well, then they will likely be top 50 MLB prospects as well. As for dark horses, I really like Thorpe, but I suspect he's going to be eased back in, probably remaining in EST and eventually being sent to Cedar Rapids. If he continues where he left off in CR in 2014 (he started slow but got significantly better as the season wore on), I think he's a pretty sure bet to be in the top 5. He was getting national attention prior to that, and putting his TJ concerns to rest would likely revitalize that attention. If he struggles though, then he's probably in the 8-15 range. My pick to rocket up the lists at this point are Gonsalves and Palka.
  8. diehardtwinsfan
    Just a question, but would be allowed to talk about what all goes into signing a free agent? Obviously, if there's proprietary stuff there, leave it out. But I'd really be curious what goes into how the team came to a decision to sign say Luke Hughes and Rickey Nolasco. what went right, not just with the decision itself, but the process, red flags, reasons for doing it, etc. what went wrong, etc. I'd really be curious. I'm sure it's not as simple as just doing it.
  9. diehardtwinsfan
    I guess the question is whether you trade Plouffe for anything. Look at what Frasier got. Not much. You might get a B- prospect or a C+ guy for Plouffe or perhaps 2, but I'm not sure it would be a spec as good Palka. Would people be OK with this? I'm guessing there would be a lot of hand wringing over this one, call me crazy. As for the Fowler idea, I like it. Just be very prepared for a rather underwhelming return on Plouffe. That doesn't strike me as something TR does.
  10. diehardtwinsfan
    A few years ago, a friend of mine and were discussing this and Mauer was a sure thing. Now, I'm not so certain. As a catcher, no question. His problem though is longevity. His transition to 1B has been less than smooth. I think if he can have a couple Maueresque seasons over the next two years, then yeah, he's in. But if he keeps playing like he did the last 2 seasons, I don't know of HOF voters will be so kind. As it is, you could argue that there were 15 clear cut HOF guys on the ballot this year. Only 2 made it in. Mauer strikes me as a casualty in this scenario.
  11. diehardtwinsfan
    I think the OF out of spring training is Arcia, Sano, Sweeney, and Rosario. Just my 2 cents. I want Buxton to prove it in AAA as well s Kepler, and I think the Twins (rightfully) want to give Arcia another shot. That changes if by chance Plouffe is traded this spring, but the only way that happens is if a team loses a 3B to injury and suddenly has a need. The Frasier trade showed us how little Plouffe will get, but a sudden need might make someone sweeten the pot enough to get Ryan to pull the trigger. I do agree on depth. This team is deep and can survive an injury pretty much anywhere other than C or RP (and even RP will likely change as the year goes on). The real problem is finding playing time for everyone. The inevitable injury will take care of that, but those don't always happen at convenient times.
  12. diehardtwinsfan
    Well, just spent a week in the Dominican. Didn't run into Sano on the beach, so I guess that's a good thing Oh, but I should add, if you ever go there, wear your Twins gear. Baseball is a big deal down there and the locals all notice.
  13. diehardtwinsfan
    Honestly, just about everyone here is either unknown or has a high ceiling with some flaws. I could see any of them breaking out, all of them, or none of them. If I had a pick to click, I'd say that Walker, Harrison, Michael, and Gordon will all make some pretty big strides forward as hitters. I'm a bit more skeptical on pitching. Not sure if I'd call Gonsalves a breakout candidate (considering how good he was last year), but I could see him coming out firing bullets in A+ to start given that he wasn't bad there in his first taste of it last season. I think Meyer and Thorpe are the ones that will be pleasant surprises.
  14. diehardtwinsfan
    I really don't see the love for Turner as compared to Garver. Garver was a pretty good defensive catcher in college (runner up to Turner if memory serves me) and has been good enough in his professional career while posting an OPS significantly higher than Turner. I don't think there's a question as to who is the better prospect at this stage of the game. I would start them accordingly. I think Navaretto should probably return to Cedar Rapids. He didn't hit well, and while his defense is ready, I think letting him work on his bat in a familiar environment would be wise. That allows for Turner to remain in Fort Meyer while Garver can ply his work in AA. That's how I'd do that personally.
  15. diehardtwinsfan
    I think the international draft is going to happen for competitive balance reasons (and yes, it saves the owners money too). But honestly, for competitive reasons, something needs to change. Otherwise, you have perennial powerhouse teams managing to stay that way b/c they consistently outspend their opponents in the international FA market. Only way I see that changing without an international draft is if the penalties get much more severe.
  16. diehardtwinsfan
    Interesting topic. I wonder if improvements in coaching/development have something to do with this.
  17. diehardtwinsfan
    Given the lawsuits moving through the courts right now and a bit scrutiny on this, I suspect that they will do something to fix the minor league situation. Whether it will be enough, who knows, but I suspect they will move on that a bit. I'd be surprised if they didn't as the Union could find themselves in a very sticky spot if they continue to negotiate salaries for people who aren't members. I think the QO/compensation piece will likely go away. It may be replaced with a comp sandwich pick or a pick right above the team's first rounder that signed the guy or perhaps their first round pick gets moved to the end of the first, but I suspect that the forfeited pick will be gone.
  18. diehardtwinsfan
    I'm not sure if we are arguing or not I wasn't really comparing Tommy to Liriano, Boof, or Diamond for that matter. Milone has 600 innings of ML experience saying he can maintain this level of production. Nothing flashy, I know, but he gets the job done. I don't know why it works but it does. What I'm saying though is that someone would be happy to take Milone at a non-guaranteed 3/21 and probably trade some prospects to do it. Take the money saved, go get a really good reliever (might have to add a 4th year in there) and move May into Milone's spot and the team as a whole is better off.
  19. diehardtwinsfan
    The more I think about this, what bothers me the most is that this is really a short term decision (and not even a very good one). Milone has 3 years left of arbitration. I don't know the estimates, but I'm guessing his payout looks something like this: 4.5, 7, 10. I think this estimate is on the conservative side, but going year to year, he's basically going to be a Twin for 3/21 or something close to that. 3/21 will get you a heck of a reliever, probably one who is as good as what we think May can do in the pen. Don't get me wrong, 3/21 for a pitcher who has done what Tommy has done is not a bad deal either. It's probably quite tradable given that the cash isn't even guaranteed should something happen. The Twins really could get the best of both worlds. They could trade Tommy for a couple top 150-200 type prospects sitting in the low minors (which given how top heavy their system is at the moment, this would be a good thing), sign a good reliever for the money saved, and let May start. They might even be able to fetch 1 top 100 prospect (though I wouldn't hold my breath on that one). In the end, I think the team is better off now and long term in that scenario. Tommy may not be high demand, but he's good enough that plenty of teams would be very happy to have him in the back of their rotation.
  20. diehardtwinsfan
    I agree that this probably more a depth thing than anything, but I'm not sure I like it. They have depth. Duffey has options, and with the rotation as currently constructed, he's probably in AAA (which I'm not terribly against personally). Berrios is in the wings, and you have Rogers, Dean, and even possibly Meyer who could come up and start. I think the days of Andrew Albers starting are (fortunately) over, even if Milone gets traded.
  21. diehardtwinsfan
    He shouldn't need to cut them in half. Even a 20% drop would be pretty significant. Yeah, there will still be a lot out of outs in there, but a few more singles and maybe a couple walks would go a long way towards writing a ticket to Minnesota. I suspect he will be there at some point this year or next.
  22. diehardtwinsfan
    I suspect that if you looked at the numbers, this would be true of most starters. 30 games and 180 IP averages to 6 innings per start.
  23. diehardtwinsfan
    Given the following he has here, Seth should have encouraged him to setup an account That said, good luck to him. I do agree that he needs to cut down on the Ks and increase the BBs. If he does that, he's going to be a downright scary major leaguer.
  24. diehardtwinsfan
    I have no problem with Milone, but this is a situation where I think he has more value to us in a trade than what he provides in the rotation. I have a tough time believing (and maybe I'm wrong here) that Milone will out perform May if they were both AL starters this season. If that back of the rotation guy is so valuable, we can trade his 3 years of arb for some decent prospects and then take the money we would have spent on him and sign someone like Bastardo to be that back of the pen guy. May goes to the rotation and the team overall is better. Not bad, I might add, for a guy that we got for a Sam Fuld waiver claim. If you don't like that, I have to think you can flip him for a decent reliever. I think the main reason Ryan wants him is depth. I like depth, all teams need it, especially with pitching, but I think at the moment we have plenty of that and need to focus more on some needs. Even without Tommy, one of May, Duffey (options), Nolasco will either be in the pen or in Rochester if there are no injuries. Not to mention you have Berrios waiting in the wings, a potential wild card in Meyer, and two pitchers on the 40 man (Dean and Rogers) who at least from a numbers standpoint appear to be major league ready. I think we are a long way from seeing 4A guys making starts, even if we traded off Milone.
  25. diehardtwinsfan
    yeah, I have to say that I like his attitude. I particularly like how he's free to admit his struggles/failure early on, how he remedies it, and then says that it as only 'salvageable by his standards' He doesn't strike me as someone who will be content to be just average. Good luck to him. I think he's probably the best catching prospect in the system right now.
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