chpettit19

Who said I hoped Ryan is cooked? I'd put my money on him being cooked for the rest of this season before I put it on him being a 3.38 ERA pitcher the rest of the year. But that doesn't mean I want him to go from a 3.17 ERA pitcher to a 4.93 ERA pitcher. Those aren't random numbers, by the way. Those are his ERA pre and post All Star break for his career. I'm off the trade Ryan thing now, because I don't think they could get as much value as I'd like because he's reinforced that he's likely to fade in the 2nd half again. Like he has done literally every season of his career. 6 innings of 1 run ball would be encouraging, but it also depends how he gets there and how it looks. I want Ryan to be good. You seem to be confusing making a prediction based on 4+ years of data with me hoping for something. I hope he never gives up a run again in his life, but that wouldn't be a very good prediction on what he'll actually do. It's ok to try to win the division no matter what I think about who they should trade away, trade for, sign, cut, demote, promote, anything. And it's ok for you to want them to do different moves than I want them to do. Buxton isn't a new caveat, but it's another data point to consider. That's what every decision they make should be about. Data points (some human provided, like by scouts) telling them what the likely outcomes of things are and how certain decisions are likely to affect things. If Buxton goes on the IL and is likely out for 2 to 4 weeks (random numbers, I don't know his actual situation) and Ryan is a mid-4 ERA pitcher, or on the IL because the arm fatigue is actually something more (like in 2023 when he hid his injury), do you think the Twins are likely to succeed the rest of the way? Or do you think it'd hurt their chances to have their "ace" and superstar out? Do you think they should ignore those things or factor them in when they make decisions? Nothing is morphing. My stance has been the same all season. This team isn't good enough. I'm glad people are excited about them being .500. That doesn't do it for me. They're struggling to beat 2 teams with 45 wins. They're struggling to score runs against the 28th and 29th "best" pitching staffs in baseball. Outside of the As defense handing them half a dozen runs the other night, the Twins have scored 5 runs in 3 games against teams with 4.84 and 5.35 ERAs. Many of us pointed out the unsustainability of their offense performing so much better with RISP than they do the rest of the time. Welcome to the return to the mean. I hope the Twins win every game. I don't expect them to. I won't be upset if they trade prospects like Kyle DeBarge for a rental reliever. Trade DeBarge, Amick, and Rosario for 3 different relievers. I will be upset if they trade somebody like Riley Quick for a rental starter. If Buxton goes on the IL and they can't beat the Royals with Joe Ryan on the mound, yes, I think that should play a factor in the moves they make between now and 5 PM central on August 3. I'd trade Jeffers no matter what. Don't think anyone is crazy for not wanting that. But it's what I'd do if I were in charge. Won't be mad if they keep him, and I hope he OPSes 1.000 if they do. Don't want them to lose games in order to convince them to trade him. Think they should've decided that already. But it's what I'd like to see them do.

They're "in contention" because the rest of the league is struggling. They've been at, not above, .500 for 2 days since they were 12-12. That's an 84 game stretch. I'm glad people are excited about this team. I'm glad they're slightly outperforming expectations. But struggling to beat, and score against, 2 completely awful teams doesn't excite me. They've been more enjoyable to watch than last year's team, but .500 simply doesn't excite me. And I'd argue you can't with you "sum of ALL of it's pieces" on one hand and "can't lose any of their hitters" on the other. They're returning to the mean with RISP since the break. I hope they get back to putting up crazy numbers in those situations, but I'm not going to bet on it.

And that's a totally fair opinion to have. If I thought Jeffers being on their team vs our team would be the tipping point in a series, I may share it. But I don't. Especially with Buxton leaving the game last night with that hip that's clearly hurting his abilities and Ryan looking like he's already swan diving into his second half collapse. But I do understand your thought process and don't have anything against it. It's just not my feelings on the situation.

Why would the Yankees give up their 2 most used relievers in that deal?

Yes. Well, that's what it was before Buxton left this game with his hip. If Ryan is cooked (so, not actually just one start, but him getting lit up in his last start, plus having this one pushed back nearly a full turn of the rotation, and his entire career showing he fades in the 2nd half already) and Buxton is hitting the IL, it would significantly change what I'd do.

The owners were trying to get a cap last time, too. All I can say is that it's really risky to try to guess what the outcome of a CBA negotiation is going to be and to implement strategies aimed at what you think will happen instead of the rules you have in front of you. And being unprepared, or unwilling, to sign guys before the CBA just means you're allowing other teams to improve while you wait things out. Better be right about everybody waiting it out or all you're doing is refusing to participate while everyone else is snatching up the talent.

I'd expect them to be more active than the Twins, not sure I expect them to be the most active AL team, though. Detmers is interesting for them. They don't have much in way of prospect talent so it'd be interesting to see what they gave up if they get him.

Totally fair. If they can buy, they should. I just question what all they can buy. The other poster suggested they'd be the most active team in the AL. They may want to be, but if nobody wants what you're selling it's hard to buy. Their biggest weapon is taking on money. They should if they can. But that limits your options on how big you can actually go.

I think this is a really interesting piece to the puzzle. How big the moves are and how much it fails is a risk to their relationship with the fans. What are you selling to get "real help?" If Joe Ryan isn't first half Joe Ryan, what do you need to sell to get a guy who can actually front this rotation? What do you have to sell to get real pen arms? If you sell and still miss the playoffs, how much did it really help? If you go on to miss the playoffs in a similar season next year, does the PR bump hold? If you trade Joe next year or lose him for nothing after the season, are fans going to remember that you added at the 2026 deadline and not scream "cheap Pohlads" then while tanking the relationship again? I'm of the opinion that to truly repair the damage you need to build a team that actually competes. Not just for .500, but to be a consistently above .500 and show you're willing to invest/buy/whatever then. I think there's a real argument for not selling big in any way this deadline, but I'm not sold that buying in any meaningful way gives any sustainable boost to the PR situation. You can't repair the damage done in 1 season. They've done themselves no favors and I hope they don't look for quick fixes to decades worth of failures.

Entirely possible. I'm not going off just the Twins, but teams in their position in general. And not just teams in baseball. Teams across all sports are more often than not at least slightly conservative when they start performing a year or 2 ahead of schedule. Not every team, but most. Those teams are actually in pretty tough spots as they have to be really good at judging what's real and what's not with their young, over-performing players. The Sox also don't have a great farm system. They don't have the firepower there to really make too big of splash moves. Your point about their financial power is really their biggest weapon right now. Can they send lower end prospects to get back underwater contracts? I assume Roch, Smith, and Bonemer are off limits. Not a lot of other guys teams are clamoring for there. Their sales pitch is really just "we'll save you some money."

Last time the CBA expired, teams went pretty aggressive in signing guys. It was actually a very large complaint around these parts as the Twins didn't do anything and seemed to have been caught flat footed. I really hope the Twins don't go into this offseason with the same mindset. Guessing at what the new CBA will bring is a really risky to do business.

Fair enough. Don't think that's unreasonable. My differing opinion would come down to them relying a lot on young guys and, as we know from the Lewis, Wallner, Julien season, those guys can fluctuate after initial success so selling your other young guys too early can derail a rebuild back to contention really quickly. I don't have a strong feeling on which way they'll go, was just curious what was making you think they will go big(ish). I wouldn't be surprised either way.

Prielipp is at 91 innings pitched this year. I'd be absolutely floored if they let him go more than about 120ish to chase a playoff birth with a below .500 team. I don't know what the right answer is on inning jumps season to season, but teams tend to be pretty conservative with it. If their data says you can just let him rip for the whole season, do it. But if they have good reason to believe him throwing more than 120 (or whatever the number is) innings this year seriously increases the odds he gets injured late this year or next year, I really, really, really hope they don't push him for a team that can't even get above .500 by late July. And to add that to my earlier comment about Ryan, I REALLY don't want them to risk Prielipp's arm in a season where your playoff rotation would be Bradley, a cooked Ryan, and Ober throwing 88 MPH backed up by an over extended Prielipp and unpredictable Rojas and Matthews. I get people want playoff baseball, but I'm not a fan of adding so much risk to future years for this team. If Ryan doesn't look, and perform, like his typical first half self tomorrow, I don't want them doing anything beyond trading a DeBarge type for a reliever. Unless they find a way to bring in Hancock. If they can get him, it'd change my view on other moves.

Interesting. What leads you to believe that?

I'd wait until I see Joe Ryan throw tomorrow before I made any decisions. He already struggles pretty significantly in the second half of seasons so if he's looking like he's struggling right now it'd change my view on any percentage any system kicks out not accounting for that.

Cusp of greatness? That is quite the statement.

I think this is correct. But I think the Rays and Yankees especially, and the Mariners to a degree, are getting relatively desperate for some playoff success. And they all need a catcher in the worst way. Not suggesting the Twins can get a top 50 prospect for him or anything, but somebody in the 90-150 range? I think it's doable. Shoot, there's talk of the Rays having checked in on Skubal. And their POBO (Erik Neander) has been out there talking about their willingness to go bigger than usual this deadline. Could certainly be smoke and mirrors there, but I think you can drum up a relatively nice bidding war for Ryan Jeffers and snag a legit, albeit it flawed, prospect for him.

Now we're getting into the weeds! Love it. I'd think he can probably bring a little extra knowledge to one of those teams in a matchup against the Twins, but I don't think it'd be anything significant beyond what the teams already know. I mean, these boards can put together pretty darn impressive scouting reports on the Twins with just publicly available data. It's pretty hard to hide any weaknesses from teams in this day and age of Major League Baseball.

Question for folks: Does Joe Ryan having his start pushed back nearly a full time through the rotation after giving up his annual billion homer game make you more inclined to move Jeffers? Less inclined? No change? If Ryan goes out Wednesday and doesn't look like himself, knowing he's faded in every 2nd half in his career, does it change your perception on the Twins chances at making the playoffs and thus whether or not we should trade Jeffers?

Hancock is not a prospect. You may be thinking of Kade Anderson. And, no, he's not available for any realistic package. Hancock wouldn't be available for the Larnach centered package either, but he's not a prospect. The Mariners want right-handed bats. Jeffers is the piece you're trying to sell there. It'd take more than that, but Jeffers is the best piece they have in a possible Hancock deal.

No interest in Warren. The others are intriguing, though. Jeffers is likely to be highly desirable at the deadline as there's multiple teams that really need a catcher. Lagrange is who I'd prefer. Hess is intriguing as well. But those are probably the types of guys they can hope on with a bidding war. Borderline top 100 guys.

I think you mean Winokur is almost 2 full years older than Tait.

I like the swing change from Tait. Just foot down, load, and launch. Looks to be more on time than he was with his leg kick. He's clearly got talent, but his swing decisions need improving. Maybe the foot down will help keep his head steady and he'll be able to better recognize pitches and make better swing decisions. That's his biggest challenge in advancing. Swinging at the right pitches.

I don't disagree one bit with this stance. The team trading the veteran often "loses" the trade. But that isn't the whole equation. The players have free will. Their team control comes to an end, and they get to choose where they want to play. And that can leave you without your best player(s) and, at most, a comp pick in their place. That is not me saying the Twins should always trade a vet before they hit free agency. It isn't me saying they've given true effort to extend every player before they hit free agency. But I'd bet they've offered pretty close to all of their best players an extension at some point before they hit free agency. And when the team is below .500 for all but 1 day after they were 12-12 and it's the end of July, it's probably worth thinking about moving expiring contracts if you can get a nice return. When the team is doing well, you should ride it out, add some pieces at the deadline, and see what you can do. This season blurs the line more than usual because of the state of the American League. But the overall point stands. Ryan Jeffers is likely leaving whether the Twins trade him or not. Simply stating that the Twins are better with him doesn't cover the entire equation.

That is absolutely a fair point.