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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    So what is the secret lineup that should be thrown out there? I don't know how many times in this thread I have to say I don't even want him on the team, but he is on the team. If people want to bash the lineup choices provide a better one. What should the lineup have been tonight? Provide your reasoning. And career OPS is not going to be an impressive reason.
  2. chpettit19
    Again, don't want him on the team, but I'm going to use his line from this season in the situation being discussed when determining how well he's done. His career OPS means nothing when discussing leading him off against lefties this season. If his career OPS was .853 but his season OPS was .670 would you want him playing? Goes both ways.
  3. chpettit19
    Who is fast and an on base machine for this team? His OBP is .380 in the leadoff spot. Again, hate him being on the roster. But Margot leading off against lefties is the least of the team's problems right now. There's not a lineup you can build with how these guys are hitting that should make anyone confident they'll score more than 2 or 3 runs. At some point we need to just point at the players and say they're the problem. Plenty of blame to go around for all this, and I'd fire Rocco and the FO, but at some point the players just need to be better and fans need to quit blaming guys not actually on the field for how the guys on the field are playing.
  4. chpettit19
    I despise Margot being on this team, but in 41 games as a leadoff hitter he's hit .326/.380/.473/.853. It's literally the only thing he's been good at.
  5. chpettit19
    That rainout on Saturday was actually pretty brutal for their playoff rotation. If Lopez had started Saturday he'd have been good to go Thursday on normal rest and then again for game 1 on normal rest. Instead they're either going to have to lock a playoff spot up early (highly unlikely) or they're going bullpen game for game 1 and may see their season end without Ober throwing a playoff pitch.
  6. chpettit19
    "The best pitchers back in the day" also had worse numbers the third time through. So I'm not sure that's actually fact instead of just how things were talked about. I did this exercise in another thread with another poster. They picked 3 Hall of Famers and 3 All Stars and they all got worse the 3rd time through. The 3rd time through is a real thing. The question, to me, is more about how drastic you want to get with it. Does it have to be the second the leadoff hitter comes up the 3rd time? Does game situation matter? Does how dominant the pitcher has been matter? Does the quality of your bullpen matter? Pitchers have always been worse the more they throw to the same lineup. Finding the nuance in managing around that fact is the trick.
  7. chpettit19
    I've always been a "talent wins, not managers" guy. Vogt looks like a genius because he has an army of top end relief pitchers. I don't think Rocco is great or terrible. I don't think any manager really is. Tom Kelly has 2 championship rings and a career 47.8 winning percentage as a manager. Did he forget how to manage in the 10 seasons he ended up under .500 or was his roster just more talented in the 5.25 (his first year wasn't a full year) that were above .500? My problem with decisions like the one we're talking about in this thread is pulling the starter who's doing well for a reliever who you know isn't good. 3rd time through or not. Just gave up a double or not. Using the arm that another crumbling playoff team sent packing who's only on the roster to eat innings in a crucial spot just because he throws with the other arm doesn't seem like the best decision that could be made there. The Twins seem to use general stats more than specific stats. Generally lefties struggle against lefties so we'll platoon like mad without so much concern for what our specific players are doing. I get that many of their strategies are large sample, 162 game strategies. But once August hits it's time to change your strategies based on what your guys are actually doing. Stop pinch hitting Manuel freaking Margot. Stop using Duran in non-9th inning or save situations. On and on. The decisions that appear to have been made before the game even started is what I don't like. That's not all on Rocco. That's an organizational strategy coming from Falvey and Levine. But Rocco is the one who implements it so he takes the heat. The strategy of trying to out manage your lack of talent by putting guys only into specific situations is a bad strategy. But it starts at the top (well, just under the top cuz I don't think the Pohlads came up with it). "We don't need good players because we can platoon weaker players to success" doesn't work in the real world. And this felt like one of those strategy decisions.
  8. chpettit19
    My problem with it wasn't the 3 batter rule, it's that the entire reason you say Irvin is here is for length. Alcala and Henriquez had to go away because you needed length out of your relievers. Irvin is a starter. He's not a mid-inning lefty specialist. If you're bringing him in in the 5th it's because you also expect him to get the 6th. The 3 batter rule didn't matter because they should've been planning on him going out there for those righties anyways because that's literally the entire reason he's here. He's not even here for high-quality length, just length. If he's not here because he's one of your 14 most talented arms but just one of the guys who can throw the most pitches without getting tired, you shouldn't be bringing him in in the 5th to face 1 guy. I don't think the move was completely absurd, but I don't think it was the right one, either.
  9. chpettit19
    Every inning of all 6. And no DH games. If the "load management concerns are gone" Byron Buxton will be in centerfield for every pitch a Twins pitcher throws from here until they pack up the clubhouse and head home for the offseason. If the "load management concerns are gone" Carlos Correa will be at shortstop for every pitch a Twins pitcher throws from here until they pack up the clubhouse and head home for the offseason. In the week and a half they've been back they haven't done it for 4 straight games let alone 6. They've had far more than 4 "meaningful" games since they've been back. Like 100% of the games have been "meaningful" since they've been back and they've both sat multiple and been pulled early in multiple. Playing 3.5 of the last 4 games doesn't sell me on them not managing their playing time. Since, you know, 3.5 is not 100% of 4. They were load managed yesterday.
  10. chpettit19
    Because of 4 games? Yeah, I'm just going to have to see them actually play every game this week before I'm sold. They've been back for 9 days and 10 days. "A week ago" they'd been back for 2 and 3 days. I hope they play every inning this week. But the idea that the narrative has changed because they played 4 games in a row, 1 of which they each came out early in, doesn't seem to be based on much.
  11. chpettit19
    I don't know. I'll believe load management concerns are gone when I see them actually play every inning this week. Correa's first game back was 9/14. Since that game he's 6th on the team in PAs. He's 8th on the team in games played. They've sat him twice in 9 games while pulling him early in 2 other games. Buxton's first game back was 9/13. Since that game he's 5th on the team in PAs. He's 7th on the team in games played. They've sat him twice in 10 games while pulling him early in 2 other games. One of the times they were each sat was in a game that came the day after they played 4 innings. That doesn't look like load management is gone. That looks exactly like load management.
  12. chpettit19
    He better make it on there long before that, though. Or he's never making it. But, yeah, no reason at all to add him to it until he's on his way to Target Field (or wherever the Twins are playing their next game).
  13. chpettit19
    He won't be added to the 40-man until they're ready to call him up. No reason to take up a 40-man spot during the offseason.
  14. chpettit19
    Not just Rocco, but the front office as well.
  15. chpettit19
    Total system failure of a month for the major league club. I'll be surprised if changes don't happen during the offseason. Not sure how you can look at this situation and think there's nothing that needs to change. Unless you made some profit and that's all you care about. You really want to alienate your fans? Follow up "right-size our business" after winning your first playoff series in 2 decades with not making any changes after the next season that saw your team completely collapse over the last month and a half of the season. Oh, and mix in having your team's games go dark on TV for many of your customers for multiple months while the team is actually entertaining. The Pohlads aren't going anywhere (or so I assume), but Dave St Peter should already be sipping mai tais on the beach somewhere after being fired. Falvey, Levine, and Rocco better be called into the owner's office and be able to explain their steadfast refusal to change tactics that lead to Manuel Margot being 9th on the team in plate appearances on the season, and 8th in plate appearances during the week your team watched their playoff spot finally go away. On a related note, why is Edouard Julien on this roster right now? They have to have 14 position players. The core of their strategy is to use every last roster spot they can to find guys who can do 1 singular thing on the field and put them into position to do that 1 thing as often as possible even if it means them having to be in other spots they simply can't succeed in more often (see Margot, Manuel as example A). But then in the most important stretch of the season they handcuff themselves with a player they don't see any situations worthy of them playing in? Why not roster Keirsey or Helman or someone who you can at least use as a defensive sub and/or base stealer? I've been pretty neutral on the FO and Rocco. But watching the on and off field roster management decisions over the last week has been mind boggling. I can usually find some way to defend/explain their decisions. I don't get the Alcala or Henriquez demotion decisions. I don't get the Cole Irvin just because he's left handed when Zebby is cruising and not in trouble decision. I don't get the Julien on the roster decision. I don't get the Margot playing against righties decision. I don't get making decisions like it's July 23rd and not September 23rd. Time for new voices and new decision makers for the Twins.
  16. chpettit19
    Should be an exciting week. Each team has a 3 game series they're hoping to sweep and a 3 game series with a tough team. Whichever team(s) can get a sweep in their 3 game series against a bad team puts themselves in a good position. Anybody losing 2 of those games can probably start making tee times for next week. KC and MN need to make their hay in their first 3 game sets because trying to make up games while you're playing a playoff team/contender while Detroit plays the worst team in the history of major league baseball is going to be tough sledding. Yes, Baltimore could very well be locked into their playoff slot, but they're playing bad baseball right now and aren't just going to roll over for the Twins. They're in the playoffs but need to get themselves right. And they only have a 28 man roster so it's not like the old days where those last 3 games would see them possibly playing the bottom of their 40-man. Gunnar and the gang can't all sit. The starting pitching matchups would be the only place the Twins could see some let up from them as their priority (if they've clinched their spot) will be setting up their rotation for the wild card series. Things can click at any moment and they can turn things back on. But I don't have much, if any, faith in that happening after watching them fall on their faces yet again yesterday. It's been "playoff" time for the Twins for about a week already. But their postseason really starts Tuesday. You can't lose either of those series and feel good about your chances. Any more than 2 losses and you can't feel good about your chances. Will be fascinating to see what crowds look like this week. Maybe the business department will learn some lessons if they see a handful of crowds under 20k while their team "fights" for a playoff birth. Fans tend to "right-size" their own budgets when they're not impressed with your product.
  17. chpettit19
    I mean that's factually incorrect. He had non-Hodgkins Lymphoma back in 2011-2012 and it came back in 2018. 2 full seasons before he spiked the payroll. And almost all billionaires "invest in their community." The Pohlad Family Foundation literally works with homeless. The Twins community fund "invests in their community." Again, not a fan of the Pohlads and am not trying to provide any cover for them, but at least speak facts. And I'd do some actual research on Carl Pohlad. He did start collecting loans in 1939, but he started earning money well before that in a variety of ways in both California and Washington while he was in college. The story that he was "making people homeless" during the great depression is greatly exaggerated. He didn't even graduate from high school until 1934. Was in college until 1939. Which, if my memory serves was the end of the great depression. He was then drafted for World War 2 in 1942. He was working in fields and selling used cars until the very end of the great depression.
  18. chpettit19
    While I am by no means a pocket protector for the Pohlads, and have been incredibly vocal on these boards since November about how terribly they've handled everything since the playoffs, and think they could absolutely spend more if they wanted to, you're missing a really important piece of the Padres decisions...Peter Siedler was dying. He went crazy on spending because he wanted to bring his team a championship before he passed. Unfortunately that didn't happen. And they've cut back on spending since. Sielder said "eff this" because he knew he was running out of time. That's a significantly different situation to be saying "eff this" in.
  19. chpettit19
    I find that basically impossible to believe, but I guess it isn't technically impossible. If he's managing a certain way because he has a rare disorder he's a worse manager than anyone has ever claimed him to be. He had a very specific reason why he wasn't able to play full seasons which is very different than any injury concerns his players have.
  20. chpettit19
    I would be fascinated to hear what the conversations between the training/medical staffs and the FO/manager are like. They changed training staffs after 2022 when everyone got hurt. But they don't seem to have changed their strategies of scheduled off days, etc. since that change. Do both training/medical staffs have the same philosophy for maintaining health, or does the FO have some numbers they think show the extra off days help, or does Rocco just have a gut feeling that extra off days will help? What is the driving force behind a strategy that appears to have been bridged over 2 separate training/medical staffs? I really hope it's medical professionals making these decisions, but I could be pretty easily convinced it's the FO nerds or Rocco. (nerds is not a derogatory term, I am a nerd)
  21. chpettit19
    Now that I agree with. And why is Margot getting to hit against righties all the time? My guess is the answer is defense and Farmer has been their best hitter lately. But the recent lineups/pinch hitting decisions have left me a little confused. Buxton and Correa situations aren't helping anything. I really hope the reason they aren't in CF and at SS everyday is because they physically can't do it and the team isn't trying to prevent possible problems. But them being so limited causes guys like Margot to have to play everyday instead of being a 25% player. Which I've done enough complaining about throughout the season.
  22. chpettit19
    @bean5302 What do you disagree with? Rocco doesn't get to pick who the runner at 2nd is. It's the last out of the previous inning. The guys on the bench who could've pinch ran were Vazquez, Larnach, Miranda, Lee, and Julien. What was the brilliant pinch running move there? The backup catcher with the 5th percentile sprint speed, injured outfielder who can't run, 3rd baseman with a slower sprint speed than Farmer, rookie with a slower sprint speed than Farmer, or Julien? That game goes drastically different if the also slow, but slightly faster Julien runs in the 10th and Lee fields in the bottom of the 10th? That was Rocco's big mistake? Which play does Julien's added speed score him on? The hit by pitch, sac bunt, walk, foul pop to first, or line out to right with 2 outs?
  23. chpettit19
    Yeah, sorry, I'm just not willing to say Jax could've been meaningfully better than he was this year. And I don't believe for a second you would argue that if I told you Richards, Staumont, Tonkin, Blewett, Thielbar, Winder, Dobnak, Boushley, Castillo, Duarte, Bowman, Funderburk, and Okert accounted for 240 bullpen innings that this bullpen would have performed well. There's no way you think those names have any business being in a top bullpen. I don't like using Duran outside the 9th. Other teams have success with that strategy, but he pretty clearly doesn't thrive in those spots. Don't like that Rocco ignores that and wants to force him into the strategy instead of building the strategy around his players. Don't think Rocco does everything great when it comes to managing pitchers. But I also think it's pretty ridiculous to look at this roster and suggest there's some great bullpen there if only they'd be used in different ways.
  24. chpettit19
    Certainly could be. I acknowledged that in multiple posts, but you chose to leave that part of my statements out. But which reliever in the Twins pen this year do you believe would have performed much better if managed differently? Tonkin on his 3rd team of the year? 37 year old Thielbar? Staumont who couldn't stick in the Cubs minor league system? Randy freaking Dobnak? Trevor Richards who actually beat career norms in many stats in his time here? Diego Castillo? Steven Okert? Jay Jackson? You and I were both telling people to settle down on the "best bullpen in baseball" talk before the year because of all these massive question marks. But now they'd have actually been close to the best bullpen in baseball if Rocco were just better? Fascinating.
  25. chpettit19
    I agree there's a difference in philosophy, and that's why I said he might do things different. He used Duran in the 8th fewer times last year, but still followed that general matchup philosophy and the Twins had a top 5 bullpen. Cleveland used Clase basically exclusively in the 9th last year (1.1 innings pitched in the 8th) and had an average bullpen. Same philosophies, significantly different results. So is it the philosophy tanking the bullpen or is it that they don't have Thielbar at the top of his game or Stewart at all or Pagan (as hard as it is to say) slicing and dicing? The Twins followed the same general philosophy last year with Duran, Jax, Stewart, Thielbar, and Pagan all being very good relievers. And they had a top 5 bullpen. They follow it this year with Duran, Jax, and Sands being their only very good relievers and they're not top 5. Is it the philosophy or talent that's the problem? I'd buy that it's a bit of both (again, I would only use Duran in the 9th). But when Cleveland lacked talented arms they weren't the best in baseball even though they only used Clase in the 9th. I put it far more on talent than philosophy when the philosophy doesn't change but the talent does and then you see result changes.
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