chpettit19

And I'd start Emma instead of all of them. But I'd rather be able to cycle through Martin, Helman, Keirsey, Lee, and Julien (not to mention Eeles, Keaschall, etc.) than be stuck with Bader all year. When none of the options are good, I'd much rather have more options.

And I don't care about the paper depth chart. I care about the real-world happenings. And, as I said, even on the paper depth chart he's the starting LFer right now, not the 4th OFer. Unless you think Lee, Julien, Martin, Keirsey, Helman, or Rodriguez are taking his spot in the starting 9. The best bet for the opening day lineup is: C- Jeffers 1B- Miranda 2B- Castro 3B- Lewis SS- Correa LF- Bader CF- Buxton RF- Wallner DH- Larnach Harrison Bader is a starter for the MN Twins, as of right now.

Yeah, just like Margot was last year, except he ended up with the 9th most PAs on the team. That's the point. He won't get 4th OFer playing time, he'll get starter playing time. This has become an unproductive conversation. I'm glad you're excited about Bader. I hope he lives up to your hopes.

He was the 32nd best hitting CFer with at least 200 PAs in baseball last year. Not outfielder, center fielder. Would've been the 39th best hitting LFer with at least 200 PAs. 51st best RFer. 102nd best hitting outfielder in baseball. He wasn't a starting level hitter at any outfield position. So, no, it doesn't take him being a DH to feel that way. His defense makes him a wonderful 4th outfielder. But he's not a starting caliber outfielder on a contending team. He's going to be a starting outfielder for the Twins. That isn't good.

How any baseball fan could think Harrison Bader getting starter level PAs is a good thing for their team is wild.

This move very well could move Larnach from LF to the vacated DH spot with Bader taking LF. Nothing in this regime's history suggests Bader will be the 4th OF. That's the point. He will likely end up with top 5-8 PAs on this team. Or maybe he'll be 9th like Margot was. That's why we don't like signings like this. Because he's not going to be the 4th outfielder, he's going to get starter level PAs.

Signing Bader doesn't have any reflection on things in-season? What are you even talking about? They're tied together. Signing him means he's going to play in-season, right? And him playing in-season effects the rest of the roster, right? What a nonsense argument. The season is what I care about, yes. I don't know what else any of us are here discussing if it isn't how the Twins do in-season.

Why isn't he? Because they don't have the money to pay him. My argument was that they could've cleared more money before February 5th, and still could've cleared it today. Alonso isn't walking in for 6.25 mil, but he might for 24. And if not him then you could've gotten Kim and Diaz for the Paddack and Vazquez money and still signed Bader. It's "sad" because you're arguing against what you want me to be saying and not what I am saying. If they knew they had 145+ mil in payroll from the start it changes things from if they only had 135. It's only "the past" because they've now allocated this money. There's no rule saying they couldn't have cleared this money today and offered it to Alonso or Bregman. I think celebrating 1 non-needle-moving signing on Feb 5th after having bashed this team all offseason as a doomed team with no chance is "sad." You've been calling them a below .500 team all offseason but now you're excited because they signed Bader? Get out of here with that. This doesn't take them from below .500 to a division champ. I'm glad you like Bader. He'll help the defense for sure. But don't act like this is some needle moving signing. Nobody should argue that.

Trading isn't the only option for removing a player from your roster. The point is they don't drop underperforming vets in any way, not just trade. Do you think they'll trade Bader at the deadline if they're in the mix for winning the Central? Do we have any historical evidence that they'd do that with a veteran position player, especially one making more than a couple mil?

Trading isn't the only way to get a guy off your roster. The point is that they will roster him all year no matter what. And they moved Nelson because he had value AND because it was a lost season. You need both of those conditions to be met. If the Twins are competing in the central they aren't trading Bader at the deadline.

No, that isn't at all what I said. I don't want them signing these at-best average free agents that they won't move on from when they end up being significantly worse than average. I want them to bring in talent. And when that talent isn't as good as what they expected I want them to move on from it and try somebody who may actually be good. None of that at all means I "should hope they never, ever sign a free agent." That's a weak, strawman argument not based on anything I said. I don't want a collection of $2-8 million vets that they won't replace when their prospects could/should be able to perform to the same level while saving them millions to spend on better vets.

Nobody is acting like 6.25 mil is sending the Pohlads anywhere. Yes, I am "worried about" where they spend their money. They're now, in my opinion, spending $23.75 mil on 3 players that don't move the needle on winning as many baseball games as possible in 2025. This isn't a new stance for me, or others, on this. I'd much rather have 1 guy for $24 mil than 3 guys. It's not just the 6.25 allocated to Bader, it's the $23.75 allocated to Paddack, Vazquez, and Bader instead of someone like Bregman or Alonso who are actual needle movers. It's floor vs ceiling. Those 3 help maintain the floor while providing 0 help on the ceiling. I don't care about the floor anymore, I want ceiling. If they have had mid-140s worth of payroll available to them from the very beginning of the offseason I think this has been a complete failure of an offseason. Give me Ha-Seong Kim instead of Bader and Paddack. They had far more avenues of team improvement open to them if this is where they knew the payroll could be all offseason. Falvey improved the team compared to what it was yesterday, maybe. But he didn't improve it over what it could have been overall with the money they apparently have available to spend.

I don't think anything in their history suggests they would actually trade Bader at the deadline. That's my concern. They kept Gallo all season. They kept Margot and Farmer all season. They don't move on from their position player vets. If they were run like a "normal" team who moved on from vets when they should I'd agree you laid out a reasonable plan there. But they don't operate that way and I don't know why we would believe they'd actually move Bader at any point during the season.

Trade Paddack and Vazquez while using this up to 8 mil to give Alonso or Bregman the Correa Special 3 year deal with 2 opt outs. Up to 8.25 mil for Bader?! They've played broke all winter but are now pushing the payroll over 140? Either trade(s) are coming (Paddack, Vazquez, and/or Castro), the front office wasted the entire offseason playing broke for no reason, or an announcement about new ownership is coming soon because they've already greenlit more spending.

I'm pretty sure every team has a backup center fielder in some way, shape, or form. It's how Bader stays in the majors, actually. You can dump Buxton and replace him with a different player for up to 15 mil a year, but then you're dropping the production during the 80ish games he'd play pretty significantly and still having a Bader or MAT type backup anyways because you can't (or shouldn't) just put any guy out in center.

He has a significantly better glove than Margot, so I'll give him credit for at least bringing something to the table. But, overall, it's another uninspiring "floor" move that adds nothing to the ceiling. At least that's how I see it.

I like that he brings defense, but he can't hit. He's the move we all knew was coming, right-handed hitting outfielder to platoon with Larnach and Wallner. But his splits last year were actually reverse, and he wasn't good against either hand. He put up insane numbers against lefties in 2023, but 2022 was reverse as well and bad against both. 2021 was the last year he actually hit well, but his splits were reverse that year, too. 2019, also reverse splits. 2017 and 2018 he was much better against lefties than righties. Overall, he hasn't showed he can really hit either hand consistently. 4 of his 7 non-2020 seasons were reverse splits. So, he's a questionable platoon option to start with. He's all glove. And the Twins certainly need more glove. But I'm not excited about this move.

Just signed Bader. Think Canha is probably off the table now.

Count me amongst the "no's" on Canha. The floor is built. Stop trying to add to the floor. Add to the ceiling. If you can't add to the ceiling with a FA then don't sign one just to sign one. Make a trade or see what you have in the young guys. The central has gotten more competitive because of young guys. Cleveland, Detroit, and KC's offenses are built on young guys. Santana in Cleveland, the corpse of Hunter Renfroe in KC, and nobody in Detroit. Those are the over 30 vets those teams have brought in (on the hitter side). Renfroe was a disaster for KC last year while Santana had the bounce back here. Detroit brought in Gleyber at the age of 28, and their over-30 vet they're looking at is Alex Bregman at the age of 31. Those teams caught, and passed, the Twins last year because they let their young guys go. And they have more coming. They let them take their lumps and figure it out. Helman, Keirsey, Martin, etc. don't have super high ceilings by any means, but they're no lower than Canha, Grichuk, Bader, or any of these other tail-end vets. Emma and Keaschal have significantly higher ceilings. If the Twins were willing to ever cut vet hitters I'd be less against bringing them in. But they aren't. So just stop bringing them in and ride or die with the youth you have. If you can't develop your own talent you're doomed anyway. Blame it on the budget if you want, but it's time to just let the kids play over bringing in these guys who's best, realistic hope is to be average.

Lewis wasn't a no brainer. He wasn't at all the top prospect. Hunter Greene, MacKenzie Gore, Kyle Wright, and Brendan McKay were all pretty universally considered better options to go #1. Lewis was not a super well received pick that year because it was seen as him being just an under-slot deal to save money for later picks. Parada, Jung, Collier, and Neto were all reasonable picks at 8 in 2022. Turns out Neto would've likely been the better college SS to take. So, no, Lee wasn't a "no-brainer." They had options. Jenkins was the clear and obvious no brainer. Even your exclusions are inaccurate because only Jenkins was a "no-brainer." You want to include 2nd round? Fine. In order: Landon Leach (HS pitcher), Ryan Jeffers (college catcher), Matt Canterino (college pitcher), Alerick Soularie (college outfielder), Steve Hajjar (college pitcher), Tanner Schobel (actually comp-B pick, didn't have a 2nd rounder that year, but college shortstop), Luke Keaschall (college 2B), Billy Amick (college 3B). Amick is a bad defender so maybe you can count him? Otherwise there isn't a single "unathletic 1B/DH" type in there as Soularie, Schobel, and Keaschall were all athletic picks. Of course where they were drafted doesn't mean that's where they'll stick, but your argument was that they drafted "unathletic 1B/DH" types. Short stops are not "unathletic 1B/DH" types. Almost every round 1 pick is bat driven. Bat is the priority that early in the draft because if you can't hit you won't make it to the majors. And Cavaco wasn't a bat 1st pick. He was an "athlete" pick. Literally the opposite of what you're claiming. So it was 4 out of 13 picks (if you add Larnach and the super athletic Wallner) that have, as you said, "plugged the system with 1B/DH types." Even though 2 of those guys are starting corner outfielders in the majors. And another is one of the best DHs in the league. So, yes, Rooker is a bat only player, but he's a star. And Wallner and Larnach are establishing themselves as above average hitters (maybe even a star hitter in Wallner). What a complete and utter disaster that has "plugged the system!" Your claim was that since their 1B/DH guys failed they have a hole at 1B, but now you want to change it to "bat first guys" to try to exclude Larnach and Wallner even though they're actively filling needs on the MN Twins team. You didn't look up who they actually drafted and were wrong in your statements. It happens. Don't move the goalposts now. You were wrong about who the Twins draft early and even tried to change the narrative on Lewis' selection so that he wouldn't be counted and called Lee a no brainer even though there were plenty of other options that would've been taken just as well had they selected them.

1st round picks under Falvey: '17: Lewis, CB-A: Rooker '18: Larnach '19: Cavaco, CB-A: Wallner '20: Sabato '21: Petty, CB-A: Miller '22: Lee '23: Jenkins, CB-A: Soto '24: Culpepper, Debarge Sabato is the only "unathletic 1B/DH" pick they've made in the first or competitive balance A rounds. Rooker is not unathletic, but he's bad defensively, so I guess you can call it 2 out of 13 picks. They've drafted 6 shortstops, 3 OFers, and 2 pitchers. Your assessment of their top draft picks is wildly off.

That would need to be accounted for in the Frawley Factor.

Now there's something we need a stat for. What are the odds of that?!

Emma is their only realistic shot at it this year. I'd love to see him get an opening day job in LF and let him work through his struggles (like Merrill and Chourio as @tony&rodney pointed out). He's the kind of player that can win this kind of award if things click for him. The other 2 aren't going to get enough of a chance. And if they win it they won't be getting any extra picks from them as they won't be up in time. Dream scenario is Emma wins it this year. Jenkins debuts in September and then wins it in 2026. We can dream, can't we?

The press release from the Twins from 2 weeks ago says Tucker Frawley is their minor league catching coordinator. This TD article by Seth also lists him as the catching coordinator. Did he switch teams in the last 2 weeks or is there bad info out there on who the Twins catching coordinator?