chpettit19

What do you mean by "decided?" I'm generally in the same boat, but I am starting to be concerned that Falvey is quoted as saying they're still navigating their plans and figuring out what their options are and they seem to not be making a push for anyone yet. I agree Buxton is priority #1, but how long can they sit and wait on him? What if he doesn't sign until ST? Plenty of extensions don't get done until then. While he's priority #1 I don't think it's wise to sit out the offseason until he's either signed or they decide he won't sign a deal. If their plans are so drastically different based on extending him or not that they can't, or won't, make any other moves until he's dealt with then they should be sitting down with Pohlad today and Buxton tomorrow and getting it solved. Waiting on Buxton can't shutdown operations for a month. I'm not jumping ship yet on the FO, but I'm getting my floaties out.

Not having made moves yet doesn't necessarily bother me, but the utter silence and apparent lack of interest in anyone is very worrisome. I've understood the vast majority of their moves over the last few years, but I'm not seeing any plan here and that's concerning. If they really are waiting for the Buxton situation to be solved before making other moves they need to be on a plane to Georgia (assuming that's where Buck is right now) and hammer it out. Either he's going to sign or he isn't. Here's our best offer, take it or leave it. Then go about your business. Don't need to trade him immediately, but they should already have multiple plans in place in case he signed and even more in place if he rejects their offer. No rumors that the Twins are in on anyone plus the quote last week on The Athletic that they're still "navigating" their plan and trying to figure out what their options are has me dipping my toes into the "Falvine must go" pool. How did they not have a handful of routes to take with a Buxton extension in place and a handful to take with him rejecting their deal? How was there not a call to his agent during the WS? Maybe there have been talks, but they need to have an idea of where they're at by now and be in the process of executing some plans. Unacceptable to still be trying to figure things out.

I didn't mean you personally were overly angry or anything, sorry if it came off that way. I'm just saying there seems to be a general theme that this 1 year 800K deal is a bigger deal than I think it is. As of 11/23/21 I'd say Cave would be the 4th OFer for the Twins based on the current 40 man roster. My point is simply that it's 11/23/21 and there's a whole lot more time to sign and trade for more talent and 1 year, 800K isn't going to stop the Twins from releasing Cave and not thinking twice. If people think the Twins are now actively not going to look for upgrades because they're so enamored with Cave that's 1 thing, but signing someone they're comfortable with to a barely more than league minimum 1 year deal is no clear sign to me that he's locked into the #4 spot. To me this was an 800k insurance policy as they believe Cave is capable of manning CF as the 4th OFer while nobody else on the roster is. Had Cave been set on going to arbitration and refused to sign this deal my guess is he'd have been released, but he agreed to a minuscule (in MLB contract terms) deal with a hope and a prayer that the Twins can't upgrade and he'll make the opening day roster. To me there's no sign whatsoever that the Twins have their 4th OFer in place and aren't going to look to upgrade. Don't like Cave and definitely don't want him as the 4th OFer, but I don't see the big deal with retaining your best fielding 4th OFer just in case you miss on your other targets over the offseason. It's just an 800K insurance policy as far as I'm concerned.

I'm still completely confused as to the idea of a grievance being filed by a player who gets cut. Especially an 800K player. Do you have any examples of this happening? I am just not seeing the idea that Cave is somehow uncuttable because he signed a 1 year, 800K deal. This FO has done some things I don't understand, and I don't understand giving Cave this contract to start with, but I just don't think it's cause for great concern yet. We're not even to Thanksgiving yet and people are acting like Cave has been named the starting CFer and 3 hole hitter. All I'm saying is it feels like more anger than there needs to be just yet. Free agency just started. Lets give it a month before we start freaking out.

Likelihood of a grievance against an MLB team for cutting a player who's hit .203 over the last 2 seasons? I'm not following at all. My understanding of the situation is that Cave was eligible for arbitration. The team never offered him arbitration as the 2 sides came to an agreement before it was even necessary. Cave agreed to a 1 year $800,000 major league deal. My understanding is due to the current CBA that deal is not fully guaranteed until Spring Training. I don't have any idea how any of that leads to even the potential that there's a grievance filed if he's cut. That's just everyday baseball operations. And Phil Hughes was traded with the 74th pick (not super high, but not nothing) to get rid of almost $7 million, not 800K. I don't see the connection there at all. This ownership group and FO release players making more than 800k all the time. They signed Addison Reed for 2 years and 16.75M before releasing him and eating more than 6 million. I'm not seeing any reason why they wouldn't be willing to release Cave if they find someone they feel is a better fit for the org in 2022 and beyond.

As others have mentioned, Cave's contract is not yet fully guaranteed. Does that mean they don't fully intend to have him on the team come Spring Training and Game 1 of 162? No. But it's important to get the details right and his deal isn't guaranteed. I'd think that makes it even easier for the FO to cut him loose if/when they find an upgrade.

My understanding is there's nothing left with arbitration anymore. Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you're saying. My understanding is they signed him to a 1 year major league deal for 800K (that isn't fully guaranteed until ST). So not sure why we wouldn't see him as any other fringe roster guy on a 1 year deal that could be cut at any time. There's 40 guys on the 40 man right now. I don't think even the angriest of Twins fans think these are the 40 guys they're going into 2022 with. Not sure why Cave on an 800K deal should be seen as less likely to be cut than any other position player right now.

Feels like much ado about nothing with Cave. He's easily cuttable. They didn't give him 10M or something. I don't like him and have no problem with people preferring they had just released him, but lets not make this out to be more than it is. Less than $1M to a 4th outfielder they'll cut immediately if/when they find a better option. Now on to the other players being thrown around as preferable over Cave. Yes, Castellanos and Canha are far better options, but, again, Cave signed for 800K, those 2 are getting way, way, way more than that. They're not the same type of signing. It's like saying "why did we extend Kepler? I would've signed Bryce Harper over Kepler." Yes, Bryce is far better, but they're not comparable signings. Clint Frazier can't play CF. We need to stop that talk right now. I don't like Cave in center, but Frazier is a Rooker-esque corner outfielder. As in one of the worst defenders in all of baseball. In fact, Rooker may be the best comp for Frazier there is on the Twins right now. Better contact skills, but he's a power corner bat who's a negative asset in the field. I wouldn't be upset with bringing him in, or even him replacing Cave, but lets not make him out to be what he isn't. He's a terrible fielder. I'd take him over Cave because I'd use Gordon in CF before I'd use Cave. But I'd never use Frazier there. But let's pump the brakes on the Cave rage. He's my least favorite Twin right now, and I don't think he plays a role on a contending team, but it's not even Thanksgiving yet, and he's on an incredibly releasable 1 year contract.

Interesting to see them add so many arms. Not super shocking, and they're all guys I think are worthy of protecting, but it makes me think signing multiple FA arms is likely not in the plans. There's still a couple guys they could move on from if they find multiple guys they want to bring in, but my first thought is that they're going to turn the pitching over to more young guys than many would probably like. Or look to make trades that would have them moving guys on the 40 man.

I saw a couple that were definitely drawing the line between tanking for draft picks and tanking in general, but there were also some comments that pretty clearly, to me at least, were stating they didn't think there were any teams attempting to lose on purpose (how I'd define tanking). They pointed to lost revenue as the reason no team would tank. To me that reads as they don't see teams attempting to lose on purpose (whether for picks or rebuilding or however you want to define things) because the owner would lose money, and I disagree with that. They cut payroll so they don't lose money while they tank. So I agree that tanking simply for a higher pick isn't really done, but rewording it as "rebuilding" is the same thing to me. Teams don't tank for a higher pick alone, but they do for more prospects, more pool money, and numerous other reasons. To me it doesn't matter if it's for a better pick or not, a front office actively refusing to field a competitive team is bad for the sport. No matter what the sport is. But it's done in all of them because it allows owners to save money while their FO takes advantage of rules meant to fix other problems that open ways to improve by being bad.

I'm shocked at the number of people who suggest there isn't tanking in baseball. There 100% is and the Cubs and Astros made it more popular when they won World Series titles after doing it. Baltimore is 100% tanking. Their front office is actively trying to lose major league baseball games. As Trov pointed out, tanking in baseball isn't necessarily about getting the #1 pick. Its about adding prospects by trading many of the legitimate major leaguers you have for any prospects you can, getting a bigger draft money pool, bigger international free agency pool, comp picks, revenue sharing $, etc. Baltimore isn't playing young players to build for the future with those players or they'd have called up Adley Rutschman to get him ready for the future. They're not going to sacrifice his years of control on teams they aren't trying to win with, though. There is motivation in many forms in MLB to not play your best players or try to bring in better players. It's a huge problem and is part of what is killing the sport. The NFL undoubtedly has the most parity in the major US sports (even with the Patriots being crazy good for so long). They're able to achieve it by having large rosters (part of their game) where 1 person can't win all on their own (despite what we are lead to believe about great QBs), and a salary floor/cap situation that stops the accumulation of super teams (despite what the Rams have been trying to do). Their draft isn't a perfect science, and getting higher picks helps, but because their rosters are so big and there's so many players that need to contribute it doesn't play a huge role in teams suddenly getting good. You'll always have the Jets, Lions, etc. of the world as their owners are just terrible at identifying quality FO personnel and coaches so they're simply bad at building teams. That's very different than the Orioles hiring Mike Elias and him refusing to bring in real major leaguers. The goal isn't to get rid of teams that lose 100 games, it's to get rid of teams trying to lose 100 games. Not the players, but the FO. The players are always trying to win. Tanking is bad. Baseball has far more problems than just the draft order that lead to tanking. Namely financial disparity. The rules are largely put in place to aid low budget teams by creating rules on how much a team can spend in certain areas so the big money teams can't control things even more through their financial advantages. Until the finances are more evenly dispersed the problems won't be fixed. Baseball orgs need enough players to contribute throughout a season that they could reach NFL style parity if they'd balance the payrolls. But they never will so the rest will just be shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic.

This post and thread bring up 2 of the more interesting player evals in all of baseball I think. I'd bet there are some huge differences in how different orgs view Chapman. I don't think anybody would have him ranked any worse than #2 in baseball as a defensive 3B (him and Arrenado are head and shoulders above everyone else), but I'd bet there is some difference in how people see his bat. He's a Sano-esque K machine with a low BA so it really comes down to the views of his power and patience, and how sustainable they are. I think he's a clear upgrade on Donaldson at this point in time as a complete player (he was actually in the 76th percentile in sprint speed which is surprising for a 3B), but I'm not sure what I'd be willing to give up for 2 years of him. The 2nd interesting player eval is Miranda. Fans around here are very excited about him, and for good reason, but he hasn't exactly sky rocketed up national prospect rankings. I may have missed an update somewhere, but I don't remember seeing him on any top 100 lists even at the end of the year/after the year. Having not been selected in the Rule 5 last year shows there weren't any MLB teams that saw him as a prospect who was going to put up the numbers he did last year, and evaluators haven't seemed to shift too dramatically in their rankings of him even after the big season. That certainly doesn't mean he's not to be viewed highly by folks here, but it's interesting. Chapman has a career 120 OPS+ and wRC+. If Miranda puts up those kinds of numbers in his first 5 seasons we should all be very happy. There's 0% chance Miranda can do what Chapman does with the glove. The question really is if Chapman has been figured out by the league and his decline with the bat is real or if he's going to bounce back to a hitter who's 20+% better than league average. And I think you'll find drastically different answers to that question amongst FO personnel.

My understanding is that the owners fear a strike and a repeat of 94-95. A lockout gives them a better chance of getting things figured out before they start losing games from the schedule. If they wait for the players to strike it raises the chances that we don't get 162 games in 2022.

Same caveat as everyone in that they spend that 20M on ML talent, but I like the trade. If they throw that money at a SP or SS I'm happy to have that player plus SWR and Martin. I appreciate John highlighting that it isn't just player for prospects, but player for prospects plus the money the player would've been paid. They technically only have the extra 11.5 or whatever he would've gotten in arb this year, but they then have 20M for each of the next 6 years they could spend in a variety of ways. All of that said, I still don't like that the Twins couldn't lock Berrios up to a similar deal. I'm guessing it was the length, not the AAV that scared the Twins off. Falvine seem to very much fear long term commitments for big-ish money. They'll sign Kepler, Sano, Polanco for long-ish deals, but only for low money. I can't say I'm totally against that in that multiple big money, long-term deals could cripple this org with their budgetary constraints (they receive profit sharing every year so the rest of the league thinks they're making less than most even if the Pohlads could afford to splurge based on their family wealth), but I think they owe it to their fans to keep some big time, home-grown players. Especially Berrios and Buxton who could've been kept for about 35 a year combined it sounds like. That's more than reasonable, even if I like having Martin, SWR, and 20M moving forward.

Agree that if the Twins aren't going to compete in 2022 then trading Polanco is an interesting idea. This specific trade would be intriguing to me and I can't say I'd be too upset about it, if, in fact, the Twins decided to reload for 2023 and beyond. My preference is still to take a swing in 2022, but agree that extending Buxton is huge for not just 2022, but 2023 and beyond and should dictate the rest of their moves. If I move Polanco I'd want a SS in return as I think Lewis is Buxton's replacement in CF in this scenario. Marte sounds like a Lewis type defender at SS, and I'd prefer better than that, but wouldn't be broken up about it if his bat turns into what it is projected to.

There's a few more comments in here about Falvey and Levine being full of themselves, or thinking they're the smartest guys in the room, or whatever other way you want to say they're overconfident in their intelligence. I find them interesting. Which front offices in any major sport do you think don't go into everything as incredibly confident people who think they're the smartest person in every room? Sticking to just baseball, there's 30 teams. That's between 30 and 60 GM/POBO jobs available depending on how each team structures their decision making trees. They're all full of themselves and think they're the smartest people in every room. It's incredibly hard to get to the places they are and you have to be incredibly smart to get there. I'd rather have them have extreme confidence in their strategies than be constantly questioning them (not reassessing them, but being unsure of their choices). These people have far more information at their disposal than most people could even imagine. It's interesting to me that so many people are shocked by the confidence of FO personnel who have reached the pinnacle of an extremely competitive market. And being creative and finding the next "it" way to win is huge to each and every one of them. It's their jobs to outsmart the other teams. Of course they think that's what they're doing. The question is how good they are at it.

Interesting target. I'd think it really depends what the Twins are looking like in 2022 and if they'll be in the mix for winning the division or not. If not then it's really a trade for 2023 only which would make me a little more hesitant as there's no reason to believe the Twins would extend him. If you can get him for a reasonable package I'd be all for it, though. Not sure Jeffers would be of any interest to the As, though. The post isn't suggesting the Larnach and Jeffers package as much as giving an idea of the quality of player needed, but the As have a right handed hitting catcher who's young and better than Jeffers so they'd be unlikely to want him. I'd guess they'd want some young pitching in return. Twins certainly have that so wouldn't be against moving one or 2 of those guys, even if I'd prefer to keep them all if possible.

This feels like a bit of an awkward comparison. As you said, Detroit has been rebuilding and that means they were looking for very different things in players and making very different evaluations than the Twins were. Baddoo turned out better than anyone would've guessed, including the Tigers. He'd never played above high-A and hadn't played in basically 2 years. It turned out terrible for the Twins, and everyone knew there was a chance he'd be taken, but nobody expected him to step in and be a 2 WAR player last year. Nobody. Not 1 single person. The Tigers being in rebuild mode meant they could take a shot on a super athletic kid and not care if he struggled for a year because they weren't trying to win anyways. The Twins were trying to win. Going into the year it was reasonable to expect Cave would help the Twins more than Baddoo. Even if I don't like Cave, it was a fair assessment and decision. Keon Broxton isn't worth debating. He's not a 5 tool player, he's a 2 tool player. He's really good defensively and can run, but he's a worse hitter than Cave. Besides being a true CFer, he brings no worth to a major league team and he will never get a major league deal again in his life. I thought Happ was a solid #5 pitcher selection, he'd been above average for years and it was reasonable to expect him to eat some innings and give the team a chance to win as a back end starter. I didn't like the Shoemaker deal, though. Also didn't like how they put Dobnak in the pen, but I don't get why it's bad that they helped him develop another pitch, though. Him becoming a "strikeout pitcher" was him improving his slider and it basically becoming a whole new pitch to him. He couldn't control it well enough and he got rocked, but it's never a bad thing to add a legit pitch. The FO has made some terrible evaluations, but they've also made some very good ones. Like I said to start this, it's hard to compare the 2 orgs. I don't have a problem with the frustrations, but I think it's tough to say the Tigers have done things correctly and the Twins haven't when they were attempting to reach very different goals. The Twins failed miserably last year (after multiple successful seasons), but the Tigers haven't succeeded yet. Will be interesting to see how the rest of this offseason plays out and what the teams look like going into 2022.

My main curiosity was if you meant this specific signing or organizational moves in general over the last 5 years or whatever. As nicksaviking posted right above me, Detroit doesn't seem to be in any better situation than the Twins and have been much worse over the last 5 years so I'd be interested in your comparisons on the 2 orgs if you feel like sharing.

Are you referring to the teams in general or this specific situation when you say Detroit did everything right and MN made a lot of mistakes? Curious what you mean by that.

What does Statista base those numbers on? Because that data isn't coming from the organization. I'm curious as to how they arrive at their numbers.

Looks like 7 years 131M. I defended the FO not extending him as him possibly asking for way too much, but if this is what he was asking the Twins for I'm pretty upset. He was absolutely worth that for the Twins and they should've signed that deal. I like Martin a lot, and SWR looks good, but it's really frustrating that it took less than 20 a year to sign him.

Totally agree they aren't established. But when it comes to building a team if they just sign veterans to take all 26 spots on the roster no prospects can ever establish themselves. I mean "here" in the sense that they have little to nothing left to prove in the minors and they're penciled into Twins roster spots to some extent or another in 2022. How good the Twins are the next 5-6 years depends on these guys. They're the core and they're here in the sense that they're going to start taking most of the ABs and throwing most of the pitches in the near future. There are definitely a lot of routes the FO could take. I think they've already established that going into the offseason their plan is retool. You don't trade for nothing but close-to-MLB-ready players last year if you're planning on a 3-4 year rebuild. That just throws off your timeline. Whether they're successful with making more moves this offseason to complete their retool is another thing. I canceled my season tickets for next year because I don't think they'll resign Buxton and I'm not going to invest if they won't. But that wouldn't even signal a rebuild. I don't think this FO will ever go drastically outside their evaluations and price points to sign guys and that means they'll miss on many targets. But I don't see that as lying about the retool vs rebuild, I think it just means they're overly risk averse. This will be one of the more interesting Twins offseasons in a while, and I hope they make some quality moves, but we'll have to wait and see and continue to debate it all here.

I'd disagree with most of this. They didn't trade Berrios for a couple of low-A prospects. They traded him for 2 guys in AA who both have legit chances to debut in 2022. They didn't trade Cruz for a couple of low-A prospects. They traded him for 2 guys in AAA. 1 has already debuted and one should debut in 2022. That's not a sign of a rebuild, that's a sign of a retool. They were very open that they'd trade people, but only for players in the high minors or major league ready. They traded Happ for a major leaguer with another year of control. When they traded Berrios they most definitely had a #2 or #3, his name is Kenta Maeda and he'd been the runner-up for the Cy Young the year before. Him getting hurt a month later doesn't mean he wasn't there at the time. I don't know how you define "consensus all-stars," but Jorge Polanco should be seen in that light. Byron Buxton is most definitely in that category skill-wise. Mitch Garver as well. Josh Donaldson is right on the border of that. Those 4 all have injury concerns and that's certainly a factor, but the offensive cupboard is far from bare. I'd also argue against the idea that it'd be a waste to spend big FA money this year. I'd argue the opposite. The core is there, but even if it wasn't it's still never a bad idea to bring in talented players. By that argument the Padres shouldn't have signed Manny Machado or Eric Hosmer when they did (Hosmer was a terrible deal from the jump to be fair). The vast majority of the Twins young talent is in AA or AAA and many are ready, or near ready, for their shot in the majors. Even by your idea of having a new core foundation this is the time to spend. I'm not a fan of all of our young players, but the "new core" is here. Kirilloff is here. Larnach is here. Rooker is here. Polanco is here. Jeffers is here. Kepler is here. Miranda is here. Ryan is here. Ober is here. Winder is here. Strotman is here. Alcala is here. Arraez is here. Lewis is here. Martin is here. Wallner is here. SWR is here. Those guys won't all make the opening day roster, but that's the next core. Some players will be moved and some won't turn out, but that's the next core. You can make arguments on what you think of all those players, or how good that core is, but the core is here. If this core isn't good enough they're in for a long rebuild and it's going to be a bad next 5 years. That's why the FO only brought in high minors or MLB ready players at the deadline. They weren't lying, they made moves to compete immediately, not 3-4 years down the road. They added to their young core. I'd argue this is the perfect time to spend large FA $ as they will have so many pre-arb players expected to play large roles. They can afford Buxton and some arms as the new guys come in on super cheap deals. Time to spend (and trade) for 2022 and forward.

I'd encourage you, and anyone else, interested in working in sports to start now. Like St Peter did, get jobs at school. Look into different analytics companies for a job doing video review next season (some did remote work this year, but that may change next year so maybe not possible). Even if it's not baseball. PFF does their video review remotely so you can get a job for them anywhere. And be ready to work those jobs for pennies with crazy hours. Follow, and interact with, as many people on Twitter and other social media sites as possible. Give them your ideas and become a regular respondent so they know who you are. Writing for TD is a great situation for you as well. Go to the Winter Meetings (this year being more difficult, obviously), but get down there and take interviews, shake hands, get your name out there. Don't expect to get a job, but learn from the process. Learn what teams are looking for and how to interview better. Learn the history of the sport you want to work in. I mean as much as possible. And not just the players, but how the game was played, CBA changes, FO strategy, pitcher usage, lineup construction (assuming baseball is your preferred sport), everything. Teams can find a ton of kids to come in and work for nothing and do the grunt work. They want the creatives who see things from a different angle and can bring them new ideas. To do that you need to know what ideas have already been out there. Everyone you're competing against knows the new stats so throwing around WAR numbers won't impress them. Create your own. Even if it's not great, have it be new. Challenge the norm in what you write for TD and how you interact with team officials on social media to stand out. And, like St Peter said, and you're saying here, just get your foot in the door. Start in the minors. Start with the northwoods league. Start wherever you can as soon as you can. St Peter is an exception, not a rule. The sports industry is cutthroat and the sooner you get in the sooner you can learn and advance. Don't wait til you're done with school to start looking for internships and jobs. No offense to St Johns (it's a good school), but you'll be going up against people with much more impressive names at the top of their degrees. Don't bank on that degree meaning much. It's all about getting in, building connections, and impressing with the work you do once you're in the door. Don't put off waiting to get in the door. Kick that guy in now! Good luck. It's not easy breaking into the sports industry, but it's also not impossible. If you're smart, willing to work for nothing early on, and good at expressing your ideas you have a real shot. Take every chance you get to add another bullet point to your resume. You never know which person you meet at which tiny job in the industry will set your path up the ranks.