chpettit19

That Chapman trade was a decade ago. The way FO operate has changed. I'm not sure that's a good comp anymore. I'd say we should use the Hader deal, but they got an established closer back in that deal so it muddies the waters some. I'm not sure there is a good comp for Duran or Jax with all the control they have. I think setting the expectation at 2 top 100 prospects is a good general idea for the Twins. It's a high bar to clear for relievers. I know fans try to claim the Marlins got a lot for Scott last year, but Snelling was only a top 100 guy on 1 list by that time and was off every list by the end of the year as he was free falling in rankings. And the Padres also got Bryan Hoeing so it wasn't even just Scott in the deal. It was 2 MLB relievers, including the best reliever on the market and the other with 5 years of control for no top 100 prospects. The Twins are very unlikely to get 2 top 100 guys for either of these guys. 1? Sure. But 2 would be pretty darn impressive. Garrett Crochet only got 2 top 100 guys in return (plus 2 others) and he had 2 years of control. I doubt either of these guys are traded because the Twins have rightly set the bar high and teams simply aren't likely to meet that asking price.

I don't think they're playing each other, but I don't think either is planning to move any of their top end arms because I don't think either team expects to get offered the packages it'd require to move them. Falvey is still driven by the numbers and won't make a deal if the value isn't there. And it's hard to get value for guys with this much control. The odds aren't 0 because some contender may get desperate. The Dodgers, for example, are incredibly injured right now. And the Phillies always need pen arms so they may be interested in one with extra control. I think Falvey still believes in the general ability of this team to compete, but will do some selling of the expiring deals because the numbers say his playoff odds are just too long for this season. There's too many teams between them and the last wild card spot. I don't think he'll do any big selling if it's not for what appears to be an obvious win. Especially if Lewis keeps mashing until the deadline. The Guardians have had Clase rumors for at least a year. There's a couple Smith rumors floating about. They have Kwan rumors. They always have rumors. They rarely trade guys with this much control left. For the same reason as Falvey, the value has to be there. They aren't in the business of giving guys up for less than they're worth. It's why they're usually good. They get value. I highly doubt Clase or Smith are moved. Or Kwan. Although, a Kwan for Emma deal is intriguing to me.

Already off it.

Camargo had Tommy John. He's not going to be catching again until 2027.

If that's his timeline, this entire conversation is moot because he's not worth talking about. Guys who take 2 years to get from AA to the majors and another year to become a regular aren't actually regulars. Even those of us saying "let's not get too carried away here" aren't talking about a 2027 call up, we're talking cup of coffee this year with real time next year. If he doesn't get a cup of coffee this year it's not crazy, but if he isn't getting real playing time in the majors next year he's taken a step back and he's getting passed up by others. Or should be if they're developing any talent at all.

It's not useful information. The situations are completely and utterly different. The Twins were buyers at the deadline last year. They're sellers this year. The other posters here are under the impression this is new, recent information from Hayes. A conversation with the White Sox at last deadline has nothing to do with the Twins at this deadline. The Twins were 59-48 at the deadline last year. Completely and totally different situation. This stuff about the White Sox asking for Jenkins, Emma, or Lee for Fedde is completely and totally irrelevant. Fedde just got DFA'd by the Cardinals. The Twins can get him for literally nothing right now.

Just to put some context to this, the Hayes report he's talking about is from last year. It was the White Sox talking to the Twins about trading them Eric Fedde at last year's deadline. This is not pertinent information.

When did this conversation happen? What is Chicago sending to MN that would include MN sending their top prospects to Chicago? Do you have a link to this podcast? Edit to add: I looked this up in Haye's X feed, this is from the 2024 deadline, not the 2025 deadline.

He looks healthy. He looks like a whole new man. Which is a little crazy to have happen seemingly at the drop of a hat, but it's what it looks like. Maybe it's just him trusting his legs more? Just letting it rip and saying "f it, if I get hurt I get hurt?" He's running full speed. Swinging from his heels. Looks to be playing free. Good for him. A free and loose Royce Lewis is a really good baseball player. It'll be huge for the 2026 Twins if the last 2 months of 2025 Royce Lewis is really good. May not be enough to save the 2025 Twins, but it's important for the offseason decisions and the 2026 Twins.

The Twins shouldn't be "shopping" or "selling" Ryan, but the Twins should absolutely be listening on him. And literally everyone else. And I mean everyone. 100% of the organization. Including Jenkins, Keaschall, Emma, everyone they just drafted, the hot dog folks, the ticket people, everyone. THIS TEAM ISN'T GOOD ENOUGH! And you don't improve your less than good enough team by trading away the bad parts for good parts. The other teams aren't that dumb. You're not turning the expiring contracts into guys that are going to make the 2026 and 2027 teams (the teams that you control your pitching for) good. It's going to take a trade that hurts to do that. You're going to have to move valuable pieces for that. It doesn't have to be at this deadline, but it better be before 2026 if you want next year's team to be better than the last 2 iterations. Or throw out a different plan. And if it includes the guys in the minors coming up and being more or less immediate saviors, I sure hope you haven't been like most of us here and ripping on the Twins ability to develop position players. Because I think that'd be a bit of a silly plan. "Hey, these guys are terrible at developing position players and it's why they're terrible and we should fire them. Don't trade Ryan! The position player prospects these guys I want fired are developing are almost here to save the day before he walks for just a comp pick so it'll be great in 2026!" There's no money. Trading Castro isn't bringing a great shot at difference making talent. How do you improve upon the position player group without trading real pieces? 2 more years of mediocre to bad teams and then losing these pitchers for 5 comp picks is such a significantly worse outcome. The smart, winning baseball move is to trade some of the pitching. Festa, SWR, Zebby, Varland, Sands, Raya, Lewis, Culpepper, Prielipp, Adams, et al are going to have to step up and fill in. It doesn't have to be Ryan, but it has to be somebody. How else are you going to improve? Jobu blesses the other guys. But, no, this deal is not nearly enough.

That inning sure didn't help his value or disprove @LA VIkes Fan's point.

Fair. I'd look at trading one of them. Whichever one you can get the most for. Because I don't know how else you make this team better. I'm a prospect guy, and I watch plenty of our minor league games, but just counting on those guys to come up in 2026 and improve this lineup isn't good enough for me. This position player group isn't good enough. You have the core of your pitching for 2 more years. I don't see a way to improve the offense without making trades. Meaningful trades. One of Duran or Jax this deadline if you get a good enough deal. One of Lopez, Ryan, or Ober this offseason if you get a good enough deal. Without making making trades with the potential to really hurt, and thus the chance to really have an impact, I don't see how 2026 isn't just like 2024 and 2025. And then you're down to 1 year left on your 5 big arms and you're really in a tight spot.

Totally agree that FV and actual scouting reports/projections are far more important than some random ranking number. I wouldn't accept that for any of them. I think Duran and Jax should return an equal amount as they're equally dominant late inning relievers. Ryan should return a package worth between the Crochet deal and the Soto deal. Duran and Jax should return a 55 plus. Chapman has returned Torres and Ragans in separate deals while on an expiring deal. Ragans wasn't as highly thought of at that time as he is now, but was already in the bigs. With the extra control they should return an elite type prospect (whatever FV grade you want to call that) plus for the extra control. Two 55s would be awfully tempting if they're both in AA or above.

But that's not how the blown save stat works in the 7th and 8th. You ignored all his holds which is the stat that balances blown saves in the 7th and 8th, not saves. You ignored his 20 holds and significantly skewed the data. He doesn't have the chance to earn a save in the 7th or 8th, only holds. By not counting his holds you gave wildly inaccurate data, not just "statistical noise."

For sure. None of our boards or opinions matter. Them saying "it has to be a top 10 prospect" doesn't matter though, either. Everything they say is meaningless. The prospect they get back being in their top 10 is meaningless. Austin Martin had just been the #5 pick in the draft. That was meaningless. He was a top 20ish prospect on many public boards and was quite possibly a top 10 or 20 prospect on their board. Meaningless. Yes, I heard the podcast. The moral I got from it was that all their words are meaningless. Which was my take already. Nobody wants to end up with a #4 or 5 starter and a bench player. A tweet saying "The Twins are demanding a top 10 prospect and another top 100 prospect" wouldn't make me feel any better. Who cares? They have to be right. And they have to be able to develop the guy once they get them. But they have to do something to inject more talent into this org. How else are you going to improve this team? Holding on to all this pitching and still having a lineup that isn't good enough is a good way to ensure 2026 goes like 2024 and 2025 and then all the pitching is worth less. So, yes, set a high price. But don't be arrogant enough to think 2 guys with 55 FV grades isn't good enough because one doesn't have a 60 grade and there's no way you couldn't be wrong and by the end of the season he doesn't go on a 2 month heater that jumps that grade to 60. Because nobody is that good at prospect evaluation. That's why it's a numbers game. Just add as much talent as you can. Because even top 10 prospects are more likely to not be impactful than be impactful. I can build a better team off prospects from #11-100 any given year than you can off just the 1-10 guys.

Walker JenkinsLuke KeaschallKaelen CulpepperConnor PrielippDasan HillEmmanuel RodriguezCharlee SotoGabriel GonzalezMarco RayaBrandon WinokurMarek HoustonRiley QuickAndrew MorrisKyle DeBargeCJ CulpepperQuentin YoungEduardo BeltrePayton EelesAaron SabatoCarson McCusker

Griffin Jax went 9-9 in 9th inning save opportunities in 2024. If you're going to call giving up leads in the 7th or 8th statistical noise you should probably check out what his blown saves in 2024 were before you give his closing rate. His blown saves in 2024 were as follows: 4/14 vs Tigers- 8th inning gave up 3 run lead (ouch) 5/6 vs Mariners- 7th inning gave up 1 run lead 6/28 vs Mariners- 8th inning gave up 1 run lead 7/8 vs White Sox- 8th inning gave up 1 run lead 9/7 vs Royals- 8th inning gave up 2 run lead 9/16 vs Guardians- 7th and 8th inning gave up 2 run lead His 10th save was a 12th inning save on 9/20 against Boston. I guess I'm confused on your stance here. Is this about Jax not being able to pitch the 9th? Because his 2024 stats show he's better in the 9th than the 7th and 8th.

Top 10 according to who? 60 FV according to who? Rushing was on Fangraphs preseason top 10, Jenkins wasn't. Would you rather have Rushing or Jenkins? Jenkins had a 55 FV grade compared to Rushing's 60. Nick Kurtz had a 55 on their board. They'd laugh at you trying to get Kurtz straight up for either Duran or Jax. Misiorowski was a 55. MLB has Jenkins 13th and with a 60 grade. But if you go by how they ended 2024 Rushing was a 55 and 75th overall. They had Brooks Lee as a 60 grade prospect. Would you like him as the lead in a package for either of Duran or Jax? They had Misiorowski as a 60. So, which board do you go off of? Misiorowski was never a top 10 prospect, but I'm quite sure you'd take him in return for one of these guys, wouldn't you? Same with Kurtz. They were both more like 30ish types. Jenkins has fallen out of most top 10s that I'm aware of, would you take him as the center piece of a Duran or Jax trade? He's not a 60 FV on every board. Projecting prospects is hard. Like really hard. It's why so many on top 100 lists aren't impactful major leaguers. Because playing major league baseball is hard. Not every top 10 list is going to be the same. Some evaluators rank upside higher while others care more about proximity to the majors. Saying "it has to be a top 10 prospect" or "I need a 60 FV to headline these deals" doesn't mean a lot because those things are subjective. Who's doing the grading? Who's making the list?

If age/level/k-rate was such an effective predictor of future major league success teams would never miss on prospects. There's a reason every team misses on so many prospects. Its far more complicated than is being presented there.

A+ AA AAA Aaron Judge: 22y 25.3% 23y 25% 24y 23.9% Paul Goldschmidt: 22y 26.9% 23y 20.1% Cal Raleigh: 22y 19.8% 22y 29.6% 24y 12.6% He did figure it out at AAA after the lost 2020 season Kyle Schwarber: 21y 19.9% 22y 20.2% AAA was super small sample, but high K% Will Smith 22y 23.3% 23y 24.4% 24y 18.1% Pete Alonso 22y 18.5% 23y 18.3% 23y 25.9% That's just me pulling similar aged hitters from the top of the current wRC+ leaderboard. That's 6 of the top 11 qualified hitters in baseball right now. Some sizeable K rates in there. I'm not arguing for Rushing. I want the best talent possible as opposed to just getting a catcher like many want. And I don't think he'd be the best talent possible. And I don't doubt your data. But you'd be passing on some awfully good hitters by only looking at your data. Like a guy who's putting up some of the best offensive seasons by a right-handed hitter in the history of the sport.

Cartaya was DFA'd earlier, FYI. They're both off the 40-man now.

I think trading one of them could make a lot of sense. I think the Dodgers have a lot of pitching injuries so they make a lot of sense as a team that'd be calling. All the control left means the price should be very, very high. I don't care what position they get in return. The Twins need more talent. Do they need more catching? Sure. But they need more outfielders, infielders, and pitchers, too. Dalton Rushing isn't the missing piece to a World Series title. Get the most talent you can.

Oh, he can definitely be better than Larnach. He could also be worse. But he has the same kind of concerns. Larnach was a more patient hitter than Miranda and GG, but all 3 of them had no speed, no defense, contact over power corner bat profiles as prospects. Larnach had the easier path to adding power as he was a bigger guy, but his swing needed more changes as it was naturally grooved to the left-center gap. I don't buy the 2020 excuse anymore. It certainly messed with some things in 2021, but it's 2025 now. The injuries for Larnach and Miranda are a thing, but 2020 is no longer an excuse I take. It's far from a perfect comp. Miranda is still the guy I see most when I watch GG. Sprays the ball to all fields as a righty. Much more line drive driven but will lift some homers here and there. Seems to have that innate ability to square the ball up and hit it hard no matter where you throw it, but maybe not at crazy levels of hard. I haven't seen batted ball data on him recently, but that'd be really interesting to me. Could also be a bit of a peak into his future power potential. I'm absolutely not trying to rain on the GG parade. I'd give him a taste of the bigs this year if I were in charge. I love bat to ball prospects. I far prefer them over power guys you have to teach to make contact. But I'm trying to be realistic here, too. He has a lot of holes in his game right now. His 100th percentile outcome is far better than what Larnach has been. But I think his most likely outcome is pretty close to Larnach and Miranda as a 115ish OPS+ bat with negative defensive value and 1-1.5 WAR. Useful player, but not one we're building statues for.

I think Keaschall has significantly more defensive value. He's a better 2B than GG is cOF and once his arm is back healthy he'll start playing some CF again. You add in his speed and he's a much more valuable player, in my opinion.

I guess Trevor Larnach is the reason for the "negativity." I don't think this is really "negativity" in the first place, though. I think its people being realistic. I think most people on this board are saying he's a major leaguer, but not a star. Larnach was 22 in his first full year in professional baseball with a near .900 OPS in AA. Had questions about whether or not he could ever get to real power, wasn't fast, and couldn't field. He's a 1-1.5 WAR player, at his best, in the majors. 115ish OPS+ kind of corner bat with a bad glove and no speed. Or Miranda. He was 23 in AA because of the missed 2020 season (he reached AA at 21 like GG) but put up essentially a 1.000 OPS there. Hardly ever struck out because he was an aggressive swinger. 8% walk rate and 11% K rate. Also, essentially a 115ish OPS bat in the majors because he doesn't have much power but has big time bat to ball skills. Has no defensive value at a corner spot and no speed. A 1-1.5 WAR player, at his best, in the majors. That's a very realistic look at GG's future with the tools he has. He could absolutely beat that. He wouldn't be the first guy to do it. But that's the realistic view. It's not negative. A 115 OPS+ is nothing to brush off. That's a useful bat. But it's not a star. And on a corner, with no defensive value (which is the honest, realistic, likely outcome for GG) it's a 1-1.5 WAR player. Developing your own guys like that is useful. He'll have a major league career. And maybe there's a tweak in there somewhere that boosts his power above what the projections are and suddenly he's a much better bat. I don't think most of us saying "hold on a minute" or the article itself are saying we should just kick him aside because he's useless, we're just saying he doesn't have "star" written all over him. He has 7-hole hitter in a good lineup written on him. Useful player, but not irreplaceable.