chpettit19

I don't think 1 out of 620 (could be 2 guys if Kwan maintains his production) is really a flaw. It's 1 guy out 620. Line drives are certainly important, too. Launch angle is another thing that's tracked very closely. And exit velo and launch angle are combined to create the "barrels" stat to show who makes the best contact in baseball. What makes Arraez unique is that he is able to make weaker contact, but still hit line drives. Typically weak contact creates pop ups or grounders. And we've seen stretches where Arraez is just a hair off and he's not a very useful hitter because he's hitting too many grounders and pop ups, and his lack of exit velo makes those really easy outs. That's what makes him unique. It's quite impressive to be able to do what he does. Not an easy thing to reproduce, thus he's 1 out of 620. Very small margin of error when you rely on having to be super precise with your launch angle, when a guy who hits the ball much harder has a larger margin of error with their launch angle. As for the Sano/Gallo vs Arraez type hitter debate, it's interesting, and I get both sides. wRC+ is an "overall" approach, not an at bat by at bat approach. There are certainly times when a strikeout is killer. That's an at bat by at bat look at things, though. What wRC+, and similar stats, are trying to do is measure your contributions overall. So it's trying to balance out all the lack of BA and contact with the superior contact they make over the course of a seaon, or career. 1 out, tying run on 3rd, bottom of the 9th and Gallo Ks? Killer. 2 outs, nobody on, down by 1 in the bottom of the 9th and Arraez hits a single? Not killer by any means, but certainly not as useful as a Gallo HR. They're trying to show that Arraez hitting a ton of singles, but not getting out as much is good, but Gallo striking out a bunch while also hitting 40 bombs is also good. You can be good in multiple ways over the course of a season. For the record, I hate the 3 true outcome style of play. I'd much rather watch Arraez hit than Sano. But I can accept that the Sano types have their value even if they're not fun to watch.

Fangraphs had a blog today about rookies and their exit velocities. The short version is that rookies with 300+ balls in play give us a really good look at what type of hitter they will be for their careers (unless you're Vlad Jr). Rookies with that many batted ball data points generally don't raise their exit velocities, or hard hit rates, significantly in future years, and their wRC+ is pretty closely tied to their exit velocities and hard-hit rates. Basically the harder you hit the ball the better hitter you'll be (shouldn't be too surprising of an idea). The above chart shows a player's exit velocities and how it correlates to wRC+ (sample size of 620 players with 400 batted balls in play). Middle row is the average wRC+ for a player with that average exit velo (top row), and the bottom row is the % of hitters with that exit velo who were at or above league average as a hitter (wRC+ 100 or better). The young Twins players we're all hoping become the new core have the following average exit velos: Jose Miranda- 89.3 (354 batted balls), 42.4 hard hit% Trevor Larnach- 90.0 (263 batted balls over the last 2 years), 42.2 hard hit% Nick Gordon- 90.8 (455 batted balls over the last 2 years), 45.7 hard hit% (I may have to change my guess on what kind of player he can be) Alex Kirilloff- 90.3 (274 batted balls over the last 2 years), 44.5 hard hit% (super encouraging to me knowing he was doing that with a bum wrist) Ryan Jeffers- 89.0 (346 batted balls over the last 3 years), 43.1 hard hit% Gilberto Celestino- 87.3 (281 batted balls over the last 2 years), 34.3 hard hit% Wallner, Lewis, and Contreras all have fewer than 40 batted balls so I didn't include their numbers. Another interesting piece of data from that article was how unique Arraez is. He doesn't hit the ball super hard, but he also rarely hits the ball super soft. He's able to be as good as he is with as low an average exit velo as he has (88.3, 28.6 hard hit%) because he's always in at least medium contact range, and rarely in the low range. I found that fascinating as well. What do you guys think? Does this encourage your view of the future core? Discourage you? Don't care cuz it's all that nonsense, "new school" analytics crap? I found it interesting. And that chart certainly looks like it's awfully clear that hitting the ball hard is a major plus.

I feel like I'm coming across as loving this signing or something when all I'm trying to do is show that he was a really good player just 2 years ago. I don't love the deal, but this idea that he's been useless his whole career simply isn't correct. Gallo was 10th in baseball in HRs in 2021. Right alongside names like Judge (39), Olson (39), Devers (38), Ramirez (36), Alonso (37), Stanton (35), Harper (35). I know that doesn't make up for all the Ks, and the walks don't make up for the low BA, but top 10 in HRs, and gold glove defense, is something it's ok to give him credit for.

In 2021? Here's league HR totals for 2016-2022 by year, skipping 2020. 2016- 5610 2017- 6105 2018- 5585 2019- 6776 2021- 5944 2022- 5215 I don't think 2021 is too far outside the norm there. He was tied for 10th in baseball in homeruns that year. I don't know that "everyone hit HRs that year" is really fair as a dismissal of being 10th in baseball in HRs in a season that didn't even top 2017's league HR total.

I think Gordon settles in as the super-utility player for the Twins moving forward. Getting nearly a starter's workload (assuming his own health) by bouncing between 4 or 5 spots (3 OF spots, and 2B/SS). That's a really nice development from how things were looking with him a few years ago. I don't think he gets significantly better, and thus isn't a guy I'd want penned in as "the guy" at any position, but he can provide a great deal of value by being the super-utility guy on a competitive team.

FYI, Max Kepler is making $8.5 million in 2023.

Welcome to TD! Buxton has certainly been a revelation once he found his groove. Just stay on the field, please!

I'll join in with wsnydes and admit I thought Sano would settle in more the last couple years. Of recent moves I'll admit I had high hopes for, and liked, the Mahle and Paddock trades. I thought they'd pay dividends in 2022, and was clearly wrong. Although, I hold out hope for vindication! I was wrong on both sides of the Berrios deal. Expected Berrios to come back to bite us in 2022, and for Martin to lay claim to a utility role while providing a 2nd on base machine (to pair with Arraez) for the Twins in 2022. Wrong on both accounts. I also expected much more out of Aaron Sabato. I expected to see a bounce back after his initial terrible showing in pro ball. Expected more of an impact from Larnach at this point. But I blame that on the Twins for trying to turn him into more of a pull hitter, and not just letting him stay up the middle more. I'm sure there's more, but my ego can only handle so much in 1 day.

Looking at that roster I'd say their floor is pretty well set. 75-80 wins. I don't know how they plan to raise their ceiling from 80-85 wins to 90-95 wins, though. Going to need to be some creative trades, that don't include any of their top prospects. Hope they have a few tricks up their sleeves.

Well that settles it.

I saw something the other day where the Reds owner (or maybe just a top FO guy) called out their fans much the same way St Peter did with Twins fans. Not a good look. I'd much rather have the Twins be the Cardinals. But the rest of these Central teams are just not impressive. Both divisions feel like they could be had by an owner who came in and went Cohen on the bit for just a couple seasons. Fandom would explode, and revenue with it.

I hope nobody was just watching MLB Network. JP Morosi, Matt Vasgersian, and Harold Reynolds just gave their predictions for Gallo's BA/HR/RBI totals for 2023. .230/30+/80+ was more or less the prediction. They were all big believers in his exit velo on the pull side leading to a jump in BA with the new shift rule. I'm sure they're just Twins apologists so are being biased.

He hit 38 in 2021. That was 2 years ago. Not saying we should expect 40 homeruns, but he was not a juiced ball product, and was hitting for extreme power just 2 years ago.

Or anytime during the Falvey administration, one could argue. Not that this is me blaming Falvey, I believe it's an ownership thing, but firing TR, hiring Falvey, and handing him a $160 million payroll from the jump could've had this team selling out season tickets with ease now, and running off 6 straight division titles. But, instead, here we are debating if signing Gallo was the worst move ever, or simply an uninspiring one. Yikes.

I also provided the opportunity to complain even more by pointing out that really going for it could've been a great decision for ownership. I strive to please all!

It's a little more complicated than that since he's not paid 100% of his salary in California or Minnesota. The taxes are based on where he plays his games. So still more being with the Giants since he'll play most of his games in the state of California, but it's a little more complicated than straight up MN vs CA. And I'm sure he is able to buy his Dior in whichever state he likes at this point. It's not just his and his agent's need for the biggest contract, it's also the MLBPA's. They would not be super happy with the best SS in baseball signing for $65 million less than he could have. There's a not-insignificant amount of pressure put on all the players to "help" the future players by taking what they can and continuing to push salaries higher and higher.

The Athletic just did an AL Central round table with a writer from each club. It doesn't sound like anyone is happy with their ownership, and maybe only Cleveland fans are happy with their FO/state of their current team, but even they're not thrilled. That shouldn't be too surprising based on the dumpster fire that the AL Central is, and has been, but it was nice to read that other fan bases are as upset as ours. It was interesting to read about the rest of the division, and made me question why none of the teams seem to throw caution to the wind and just go all out. The schedule is getting more balanced so there's fewer games to beat up on division foes, but there's still a lot. A playoff birth is just sitting there waiting for the Twins or Sox, or anyone really, to take if they'd just go crazy, Padres style, and bring in a bunch of guys. It feels like every team is ok with major flaws as they go into seasons because they know the rest of the division is so majorly flawed and they don't have to do as much to win the Central as they would to win another division. Then we see all our division teams pretty routinely dispatched quickly from the playoffs as they are simply built to beat the rest of the Central. Misery loves company, so it's nice to see the rest of the fans in the division are cranky as well, but it really just made me crankier as I read and really got the feeling that the Twins could so easily have been winning 100+ games a year for a while now if they'd just have said "f it, we're going big" for a year or 2. Then Target Field would be filled, and eyes would be on TV/computer screens, and it'd be more affordable to go big moving forward. But at least the rest of the division is full of unhappy fans as well, I guess.

I'd guess the extra $65 million he got from the Giants played a pretty big role...

I'm just simply not sold on Gordon yet. He very well may be productive again, but I'm not willing to bet the 2023 season on it. He's the least of my concerns with the 4 "young" lefty outfielders, though. I'm not expecting Wallner to be a health concern, but I have major concerns about his production. Thus not both healthy and productive. I'm simply saying that we need both health and production for these guys, and Gordon's scorching hot 3 months of production is the best argument any of them have. That's not overly encouraging to me.

I'll start by saying I 100% agree with your last paragraph. TD is well known for overreacting to every individual move that happens during the offseason. I mean there's currently a new article up summarizing minor league moves they've made and even that article is full of angry messages about how those signings are useless. As for Gallo vs Kepler, I'll start with Kepler having been a full time player for 1 more season than Gallo. If you average out their WARs per season starting when they were full time players you get Kepler at 2.4 bWAR (16.9 WAR over 7 seasons) and 2.3 fWAR (16 WAR over 7 seasons). Gallo is 2.4 bWAR (14.7 WAR over 6 seasons) and 2.5 fWAR (15.1 WAR over 6 seasons). To me they're a wash. Both good defenders with severely flawed bats. Just a matter of being Gallo's K flaw vs Kepler's weak contact flaw. Neither is a good BA guy so even that complaint is a wash to me. The other part of the equation, assuming Kepler is dealt, is what they get in return for Kepler. I've seen guesses all over the map on TD and elsewhere. If they bring back something useful Gallo+Kepler return could certainly be better than Kepler+2.5 million. I don't love the deal, and am not predicting Gallo jumps back up to a 3 or 4 win guy like he was for 4 of his years in Texas. But it's also not the most illogical, terrible move I've ever seen. I'm simply willing to see what corresponding moves are made before condemning this one.

Larnach played 51 games last year. That's where I heavily weigh his performance. He's had 2 straight years where a major league job was handed to him at some point in the season and he's cratered and ended the year on the IL both times. Why should I expect him to sustain that 104 OPS+ for an entire season? I'm no longer willing to bet either Larnach or Kirilloff can stay healthy. (And I hate writing that because I've been big fans of both of them for a long time) Going into 2023 expecting any of Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner, or Gordon to suddenly be healthy, and productive for an entire season would not be a move dedicated to winning in 2023. And if they're not trying to win in 2023 they should be trading Mahle, Gray, Maeda, Kepler, and not signing Gallo or trading for Farmer. I know "we need pitching" is a common chant around here, but they need offense just as much, if not more, than they need pitching. They have 3 guys on the current roster who deserve unquestioned spots in the top 6 of a playoff caliber lineup. Buxton, Arraez, and Polanco are the only 3 guys they have that have any sort of sustained success to point to and say they deserve an unquestioned spot in a good lineup. They need all the hitting they can get.

Why does Larnach have a good chance of being the better player? Gallo has a 4 win season under his belt (along with two 3 win seasons, and a 2.8). He's averaged 2.5 WAR, even with his absolute trash 2022 season. I don't love the signing, and the offseason is still a disaster after wasting 2 months lowballing Correa, but we need to stop acting like we have a ton of talent on the corners and 2.5 WAR seasons are just falling from the sky for the Twins. Gallo, including his embarrassment of a 2022 season averages 2.5 fWAR and bWAR. Trevor Larnach has had the chance to prove himself for 1.5 seasons, but he hasn't been able to stay healthy. In those 1.5 seasons he's totaled 1.1 fWAR and 1.8 bWAR. Kiriloff has had 2 full seasons to prove himself, but hasn't been able to stay healthy. He's accumulated 0.3 bWAR, and -0.6 fWAR. Nick Gordon has had 1.5 seasons to prove himself. He's accumulated 1.5 fWAR, and 1.7 bWAR. Wallner is a 25 year old rookie with massive strikeout numbers in the minors, who the league now has tape on and will know how to attack from the jump. Why are we so certain those 4 guys are going to be better than Joey Gallo? I'm not sure they won't be, but I'm also not willing to say the Twins shouldn't be looking for possible upgrades on that combination of players. Having 4 guys in those spots is very different than having 4 guys who we should expect to be healthy and produce well.

I'm not going to write out all the stats again because I just did that in another thread, but here's a summary: JD is a DH only. He's averaged 2.5 WAR per year over his career. Gallo is an elite defender who has also averaged 2.5 WAR per year over his career. JD has lost 10+ points on his OPS+ and wRC+ each of the last 3 seasons. He was at 117 in OPS+ and 119 in wRC+ last year. If he continues at his current decline he'll be around 105, or 5% better than league average, in 2023. As a DH only. With no power (he's declined by about 10 HRs a year over the same timespan and hit 16 HRs last year, so I'll give him about 10 for 2023). And with no speed. Gallo averaged a 117 OPS+ and wRC+ in his time in Texas. That was up until 2021. He was awful in NY and LA. So Gallo averaged the same type of batting performance that JD had last year over his entire time in Texas. He then had a terrible year in NY and LA. The bet is that Gallo is more likely to be able to bounce back at the age of 29 after 1 bad year in high pressure markets than JD is suddenly able to turn around his very steady decline at the age of 36. JD will most likely be a league average-ish hitter with negative defensive value. Gallo could be absolutely horrible with the bat, but still play elite defense, which would make it a wash. Or Gallo could be even league average with his defense and he's instantly more valuable than JD. I wouldn't have signed Gallo for $11 million. I also wouldn't have signed JD for $10 million. Gallo likely fills Kepler's role since the general feeling is Kepler is getting traded eventually. Gallo has been an above average, and twice significantly above average, hitter in the bigs. The young guys everyone wants to play have never been that. He's a significantly better defender than all the young guys. He has more ways to fill holes in the roster. JD fills the DH hole with a league average hitter. Or a bench bat. Sorry, not interested in that for $10 million. The Dodgers can afford a $10 million bench bat. The Twins can't.

Then pick some way to decide which player was better overall. Unless you feel defense doesn't matter at all and the only way to determine who a good player is is by their batting average. FYI, literally every major league team has a form of WAR they use. So perhaps it's not complete ****.

As you well know, I wouldn't have signed Gallo for that deal either. But at least he plays defense. Friendly wager on who has the higher WAR total in 2023? I'll take Gallo, you can have JD. Combine total f and bWAR. You can pick the stakes.