chpettit19

If it takes another injury or a trade to get him back up if he's still mashing in AAA I'm going to turn into one of the people who start calling for heads, and I really don't like being that kind of person for the exact reason you mention (they have more info, and frankly, are smarter than me). But if he continues to hit in AAA there is no reason not to have him replace Urshela or anyone else not hitting for the Twins. Play your best players. Especially since they're past the service time cutoff anyways. I just don't get any strategy now that isn't playing your best players as often as they can play.

We certainly don't know. And I generally give them the benefit of the doubt cuz they have so much more info and know the bigger picture, but I don't follow the logic of sending down one of you top 4 players. For any reason. I just think you find a place to get your best players on the field.

I hope they aren't playing Urshela simply because they just traded for him a month and a half ago. If he isn't the better player (and it's hard to argue he is at this moment) then he shouldn't just automatically get to start because he was a recent acquisition. I'd bet his glove plays well at 1B, too. That'd give the Twins 4 guys who have started games at SS in the majors in their infield. That doesn't sound too bad. I hope anyone suggesting the FO didn't think things through are exaggerating their stance. But it's fair to question what the front office is weighing. I think you may be correct and part of why they're playing Urshela is because they traded for him thinking he could be the everyday 3B. I also think it's fair to question how cautious they're being with Lewis playing other positions. I don't really get what alternate reason they have for sending him down since he's past any service time concerns (unless they don't plan to bring him back basically at all this year and then they should be fired). I spent all offseason predicting Lewis would thrive from basically the jump. I can't imagine the FO knew how he was looking after 2020 and his rehab leading into ST and had no idea he was basically ready for the bigs, but maybe they were surprised by his immediate success. To me this all feels like they had a plan for how the season would go, then for what they'd do if Correa got hurt, and they simply aren't willing to adjust on the fly. Their plan was for Lewis to be in AAA basically the whole year other than to fill in for any Correa IL stints. They planned for Urshela to be the everyday 3B. They planned and planned and now I think we're seeing an example of their inability to adjust quickly. I think it's a weakness of this FO/brain trust (I think Rocco is highly involved as well). They hold onto their plans too long (Colome closing, Happ and Shoemaker starting for examples). I think that's what we're seeing and I don't think "this was the plan" is a good enough reason to send down one of their current best players.

They don't even need to DFA Garlick as he still has an option left. They can simply send him down.

Further prepare him for a return? What are they preparing for him to do on his return? Hit .408 instead of .308? Royce Lewis is a better baseball than Urshela, Gordon, Celestino, and Arraez today. Arguing that he shouldn't start over any of those players today is crazy to me. Arraez only plays against righties and his best defensive position without a doubt is DH. I don't care if Celestino and Gordon are the backup OFers because Lewis shouldn't be a backup. Maybe he falls apart like Larnach did last year and then this is a different discussion. But today he is the 4th best player the Twins have. And you're arguing it's hard to get him ABs over their 12th-14th best players and Arraez. Blows my mind. Play your best players. Not all that complicated to me.

Did you see Lewis play OF in the AFL? He is a better OFer than Garlick is right now.

The short end of a platoon over an everyday player is the argument you're making right now. Sorry, not sold.

I don't think it's a huge deal in the grand scheme. I think it sends a bad message, though. Not necessarily to players, but just in general. To me it feels like they had a plan and that's all there is to it. He was going to come up until Correa got back and he was going back. Didn't matter if he hit 1.000. As for playing everyday I don't buy that either. He could, and should, play everyday for the Twins. Buxton, Correa, Polanco, Lewis is how I'd rank the top 4 players in the Twins org right now. You play Lewis over Urshela. DH him over Sanchez or Jeffers. Play him over Gordon. Play him over Miranda. Play him over Garlick. There are everyday ABs available in the majors so sending him down to play everyday doesn't make sense to me. The offense has been horrible and he's one of the few guys doing well. They're in a stretch of games that they need to rack up wins in. Play your best players and dominate this stretch. If he starts struggling like Miranda adjust then. But right now he gives you a better chance to win. That's all that should matter.

He's not going to get them in AAA either as the plan is to play him all over the field to get him used to being a super utility guy for the rest of the season.

Your question isn't accurate. None of those players need to go anywhere. They can carry a max of 13 pitchers starting May 29th. They will carry 13 pitchers because they always do. Until then they're likely to carry 12 position players and 14 pitchers. 12 position players: (Garlick would be in for Larnach until he comes back) Byron Buxton Carlos Correa Jorge Polanco Luis Arraez Gio Urshela Gary Sanchez Ryan Jeffers Nick Gordon Gilberto Celestino Max Kepler Trevor Larnach Royce Lewis Then once they have to send a pitcher down on the 29th they can call Garlick back up. Or Miranda. Or Kirilloff. Or Godoy. Or Contreras. Or whoever in the world they want. But you can pose your Arraez, Urshela, Sanchez, Gordon, Celestino question all you want. None of them need to go anywhere in order to keep Lewis. As I've now said 3 times Kyle Galick, who is an awful defender and only hits against lefties, is the guy I would send down.

Kyle Garlick. As I mentioned and you again ignored. But why wouldn't a pitcher be an option? With Bundy back they appear to be putting Winder back in the long relief role. Ober is coming back before Larnach. So they'll have plenty of pitchers. Why wouldn't that be an option? And, yes, I'm focused on keeping the best players in the majors. Why would anything else be the focus?

The options? Isn't sending Miranda down now instead of "soon" an option? Isn't Lewis learning 1B on the fly like they're having Arraez do an option? Or putting Kepler there since he's played 1B before. Isn't sending a pitcher down when Larnach is ready to come back an option? Isn't Buxton, Polanco, Correa, Lewis, Arraez, Larnach, Kepler, Celestino, Urshela, Jeffers, Sanchez, Gordon, Garlick as your top 13 an option? Or if you really don't want to send an arm down before the 29th isn't sending Garlick down when Larnach comes back an option? I notice you left the no defense, short side of a platoon bat out of your list of possible roster moves.

So send him down before he has the chance to be bad? He's not currently bad so that doesn't make much sense. Nobody is saying he's guaranteed to be great for the rest of his career, but currently he's one of the 3 or 4 best players on the team while they have another top prospect who is currently bad that they left on the team. Why wouldn't playing time in the bigs be guaranteed now? He's one of your best players. Buxton is sitting or DHing multiple games a series. Gordon isn't lighting up scoreboards. Urshella isn't either. Arraez doesn't hit against lefties. They've been DHing their catchers. There are plenty of ABs available on a team that isn't scoring many runs at all for one of the few guys that are hitting at the moment.

Why not send Miranda down now and wait until you actually know when Larnach is coming back before you send the better player down? What if Larnach isn't ready to come back until May 27th? That's 2 days before they need to jettison a pitcher. At that point wouldn't you jettison the pitcher on the 27th and not have to send Lewis down at all? I don't understand the rationale at all. Lewis is better than Miranda right now. There's no question about that. Why send down the better player? I fail to see that rationale.

Sounds like the plan is for Royce to bounce around the field in AAA before being recalled as a super-utility guy. Hate it. Don't get the need to send him down for a month or whatever for that. The kid stepped into 3B and CF with no previous experience there in the AFL and more than held his own. He's one of your 9 best players in the organization. Put him on the major league field and let him be an athlete.

Disagree. I mean the positioning literally comes from the dugout/index card. You or I can go out there and stand in the right position because they literally tell him where to stand. What decision making are you talking about? Which base to throw to? Where to go on cutoffs? If he doesn't know those things now he's probably not going to figure it out. What teamwork? Turning double plays? They get that rhythm in practice, not the 1 double play they turn a game. I don't disagree that there's absolutely a benefit to playing games. Game speed can never be replicated in practice. But the things you seem to be talking about can 100% be worked on in practice. My point isn't that he never needs to play SS to improve, it's that the difference between playing there 4 or 5 times a week in AAA vs playing there 2 times a week in the majors is miniscule. And he's not working hand in hand with a former top prospect who was a bad fielder and turned himself into a platinum glove winner if he's in AAA which I think pretty well balances out the extra couple games he'd play there in AAA. Not to mention that my guess is that if he goes back to AAA he's not just playing SS. Their plan would absolutely not be to keep him in AAA playing nothing but SS until Correa is hurt again or next season. He'd go down and play some OF, 3B, and 2B so he could come back up and play all over the field for the stretch run and playoffs with the Twins. So now he's playing the same number of games at SS in AAA as he would in the majors and the strategy of improving his defense at SS is completely out the window. Sending him back to AAA wouldn't be because they think that's the best place for him to improve his SS defense.

That's fair. 1 win after 0-18 would be nice.

What does "playing to win the regular season" even mean? Is the argument that the game is drastically different in the playoffs? I'm sure those players would say that. 29 teams every single season to a man would tell you they came up short. You do know only 1 team wins the World Series every year, right? Again, I don't think Rocco having a 1-5 or 2-5 postseason record would change many opinions. Again, if you can tell people the secret code to winning in the postseason you can have any job with any team in any sport. I have some connections in the Twins FO and I'd be happy to pass the code along and just get you a nice consulting fee of a few million if that's all you're looking for and not a fulltime job. Let me know what strategies you think they're missing. Here's a free fact on strategies: HRs are one of the "stickiest" stats from regular season to postseason. So HR rate for hitters changes very little between the regular season and postseason. The Twins built a HR bashing machine in 2019 then stopped hitting HRs in the playoffs. What should Rocco have done differently to fix that? Should the FO not build teams that hit HRs in the regular season because you don't like it even though a hundred years worth of stats say you're wrong?

And I'm saying that's not what they're facing. At least not every time out. If the Braves and Astros had guys throwing like Verlander was the other night they'd have averaged more than 5 innings a start. The Astros had 1 pitcher go 8 innings in a start (I think it was Valdez, but could be wrong) because he was throwing so well. But since Morton, Fried, Anderson, et al for Atlanta, and Grienke, Valdez, Garcia, et al for the Astros weren't throwing like Verlander a few days ago they didn't get so many innings. This idea that every playoff team is running out a staff of aces is wrong. They're not. Many of them have at least 1 ace, yes. What some of them have are guys with names you might recognize. But if the Twins are a top 5 pitching team (which they were in 2019 and 2020) and a top 5 offensive team (which they were) in the regular season it's because they can get good hitters out and hit good pitching. 5 games is a super small sample size. It just gets blown up because it's the playoffs and the Twins are historically bad in them the last 20 or so years.

Here's my thing with needing to play SS everyday, does it really matter that much as far as improving his defensive ability? I'm talking game reps since I assume that's what people mean by "playing SS everyday." Correa won the platinum glove last year while playing 1304.2 innings at SS. He had 578 balls hit to him. So in a longer season with more innings (majors vs minors I mean) he averaged about 4 balls per game. So the argument is that Royce needs his 4 balls a game in AAA to further develop? I find it hard to believe 4 reps a game is what turns him into a better fielder. Isn't it the thousands of reps he takes outside of game play that improve his abilities? And if that's the case can't he do that in Minneapolis while providing one of their 9 best bats and still getting 8-12 balls at SS a week instead of the 20-24 he'd see a week in St Paul?

No, it isn't. The 2 teams in the world series last year each averaged less than 5 innings a start for the postseason. The Astros averaged less than 4 innings a start. And as I pointed out in my other comment, the Brewers ran 3 aces out there last year and went 1-3.

That's why I said the continuation of the playoff losing streak is the big part of the negative narrative. I'm not one to say it's the manager's fault that Jorge Polanco throws a routine grounder darn near into right field despite being 10 feet away from 2nd. Hard to blame Rocco for Pineda being suspended in 2019 or Buxton being hit in the head by a pitch a week or whatever before the playoffs start which left the team shorthanded. He's 0-5 in the playoffs. Not great at all, certainly. But if you're going to ignore some pretty incredible stats over 420 regular season games in favor of 5 playoff games there's no argument anyone can make against it. If you can solve how to win consistently in the playoffs and which strategies will translate into consistent postseason wins you can pick any job you want with any team in any sport. The Dodgers sure would like some help since they've got the best regular season stats in baseball for darn near a decade and have 1 championship to show for it. The Brewers ran 3 aces and the best reliever in baseball out there last year and won 1 game. I know 1 is more than 0, but I find it hard to believe people would be happy with Rocco being 1-5 instead of 0-5.

So if Royce Lewis isn't close to a gold glover he needs to be in AAA? That has to be top 5 in boldest statements I've ever seen on TD. So your stance is that the current Twins team would be better off having Royce Lewis in AAA until he's a gold glove caliber SS instead of having him learn from a platinum glove winning SS in the majors while providing an improved bat for the offense? Did you know Carlos Correa was considered well below average defensively when he first debuted? Last year he was voted the best defender at any position in the American League. Would it have been better for Houston to keep him in AAA for 3 or 4 extra years until he was a gold glove caliber SS? They're not exactly known as the best defensive team in the history of baseball. I think Royce following Correa's career trajectory would be an awfully nice outcome.

Why do you say his defense needs to "improve vastly?" Certainly has room for improvement, but vast is a big word to use there. To follow that up, how much improvement do you need to see out of him before you'd be willing to have him on the major league roster? Does he have to be a gold glover? League average (which I'd argue he is right now)? Completely finished defensive product with no room for improvement? You bring up players doing well hitting then falling on their faces, does that mean you'd send him down to AAA to avoid him falling on his face? He's not currently falling on his face in the batter's box. How does he establish that he's ready and won't fall on his face if you don't keep him in the majors and give him ABs?

Here's the pitching info since Rocco took over: From 2019 to today MIN has the 10th most pitching fWAR in baseball. So even with the disaster of 2021 they're top 10 in all of baseball. If we just use 2019 and 2020, you know, when HRs saved Rocco, they were 2nd in all of baseball. They're 8th in baseball in WPA since 2019. Since 2019 they're 3rd in WPA for relievers. That sounds like a pitching strategy that is working awfully well. Here's the OBP vs SLG numbers since Rocco took over: OBP .324 good for 8th in all of baseball. SLG .450 good for 3rd in all of baseball. wRC+ 108 good for 4th in all of baseball. Runs scored 2077 good for 6th in all of baseball. There's a little room for improvement in the OBP, but they're not exactly struggling to get on base. What's really clouding things is the continuation of the playoff game losing streak. If people want to blame Rocco for those loses that's one thing, but the stats don't match up with the rest of the narrative about him or this team since he took over. They're getting on base plenty and scoring plenty of runs during the regular season. They're pitching plenty well and getting incredible performances out of their pen during the regular season.