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John Bonnes

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  1. The Minnesota Twins have announced they have traded Justin Morneau to the Pittsburgh Pirates for outfielder Alex Presley and a player to be named later who was later identified as reliever Duke Welker. Morneau, who was drafted by the Twins in 1999, moved into 3rd place on the Twins all-time home run list just last night when he passed Tony Oliva with his 221st career blast.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] It also provided the deciding run in a 3-2 win over the Texas Rangers. If he does not return to the Twins, he will also rank high on the Twins leaderboard, including slugging percentage (4th - .485), RBI (5th - 860) and extra-base hits (5th - 526). He will almost certainly become a member of the Twins Hall of Fame when he is eligible. Morneau had been the subject of trade rumors for months as he was becoming a free agent at the end of the year and had the second highest salary on the non-contending ballclub. The Pirates have agreed as part of the trade to pay the approximate $2.3M he will still make this year. The initial player who was announced was Alex Presley, a 27-year-old outfielder who has bounced between AAA and the Pirates for the last four years. During that time, he's hit .261 with a .718 OPS over 699 plate appearances while mostly playing corner outfield spots. He's had considerably more success in AAA, where he posted an 837 OPS while playing mostly in centerfield. As a left-handed hitter, he profiles as a player similar to, albeit a slight upgrade to, Clete Thomas. Later, the second player, Duke Welker, was announced. Welker is also 27 years old and serves as the closer for the Pirates AAA affiliate. This year he struck out 64 batters in 61 innings with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.279 WHIP. He profiles as a serviceable right-handed reliever.
  2. I've been wondering about trading away Doumit, but I might like your plan better: keep him now since he value is iffy and roll the dice on him as a midyear acquisition. I guess I'd want to see how things shake out. If he's going to be spending a lot of time at DH, I'm not going to be happy. I can't go with Sizemore, but I wouldn't be totally opposed to them signing someone to play cf for a year. But I think I'd also be satisfied with Clete/Mastro holding the spot until either Hicks or Buxton takes it away.
  3. This season was supposed to answer some questions about the makeup of the next winning Minnesota Twins team. It has largely failed to do so. But there is still some time and some September callups which might provide some clues as to the proper moves to make this offseason. The Starting Rotation (recall Scott Diamond) I just deleted an introductory paragraph with a lot of stats because it showed you something you already know: the Twins starting rotation is very bad. It was very bad last year, too. And with no immediate help on the horizon, the question is whether the Twins can somehow avoid “very bad” again next year. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Ideally, the answer would involve giving time to younger pitchers with limited experience and some upside, like Scott Diamond, Liam Hendriks, Vance Worley and Kyle Gibson. However, Hendriks is here and Worley and Gibson are likely done for the year. That leaves Diamond, who has posted a 1.91 ERA since his demotion. In an ideal world, he would replace Mike Pelfrey, who would be traded for a Buterrific prospect from a contending team. Otherwise, shouldn’t Pelfrey have an innings limit after coming back from Tommy John? Isn’t he nearing it? Please? (Don’t get me started on giving Kevin Correia a two-year deal. No. Don’t. I’m not kidding. Be still.) The Bullpen (recall Michael Tonkin) The Twins one area of strength is the bullpen, so recalling Tonkin isn’t absolutely necessary. Tonkin was hit pretty hard on Sunday, and has already passed his career high for games this season. It would be understandable if he was just shut him down when Rochester’s season ends, especially if they rely on him down the stretch. But one way the Twins could continue to build for the future would be to trade some relievers. The Twins already look like they have four impact relievers – Glen Perkins, Jared Burton, Caleb Thielbar and Casey Fien. Seeing Tonkin in the majors could make them more comfortable shopping one of these guys, though trading relievers in the offseason (when there are so many free agent arms available) doesn’t seem especially profitable. Catcher (recall Josmil Pinto) This is maybe the least likely callup, but there is a good reason to consider it. Just like re-signing Justin Morneau adds to the glut of corner fielding types, so does Ryan Doumit’s guaranteed deal next year. The Twins have any number of players that could use at-bats from the DH or right field spots, which makes Doumit’s primary value that of a catcher who can step in 70 games per year without embarrassing himself defensively. In some ways, Josmil Pinto looks like a similar player. He has shown he can hit at each level but, like Doumit, his defense is questionable. Playing him (and Chris Herrmann) in September might give a hint as to how aggressively the Twins could shop Doumit, who isn’t particularly valuable, but can fill a valuable niche for some teams. It would also give the Twins some sense of their backup options if Mauer’s concussion doesn’t clear up immediately (and maybe give Mauer some extra rest). Center Field (recall Darin Mastroianni) We all wish Aaron Hicks was ready for the majors. Indeed, we all hoped he was. He wasn’t, and after some initial struggles in Rochester and then some injuries, he’s far from having mastered AAA. In fact, there is less evidence that Hicks belongs in the majors on Opening Day than there was at this time last year. So the Twins need to figure out what their center field options are. Playing Mastroiann and Clete Thomas as a platoon in September might hint as to whether the Twins need to spackle over that centerfield spot until Hicks is ready. (So might calling up Antoan Richardson and his.393 OBP, but I’m not holding my breath.) First Base/DH/Right Field/Left Field (recall Chris Parmelee) I’m also not holding my breath for this move, either. Three of these four spots are regularly tied up by veterans – Doumit, Morneau and Josh Willingham - and the leftover spot needs to be dedicated to Oswaldo Arcia as often as possible. That has left Chris Colabello on the bench a little too often - check that - a LOT too often considering he seems to be behind Wilkin Ramirrez and Chris Herrmann on the depth chart. Don’t get me wrong – Ramirez and Herrmann both should be evaluated as bench players, but I’d much rather evaluate next year’s possible first baseman. I can understand keeping Parmelee in Rochester. He is hitting just .223, and that isn’t the front office’s fault. But 2012's version of Chris Colabello who tore up the Eastern League had "Parmelee" stitched on his back and he’s four years younger and while he didn’t break through in his 242 at-bats this year, he didn’t crash and burn either. A September Parmelee/Colabello platoon makes sense as an experiment at any of three roster spots – first base, right field or DH – and its not like all the high-end talent in this lineup should prove an insurmountable obstacle. Shortstop (recall Eduardo Escobar) Instead, I suspect I’m going to see this. I’ll admit a bias against Escobar: he’s never hit (even in the minors), his defense looked downright crummy with the Twins and he’s the “return” we got for Francisco Liriano. On the other hand, I have become irrationally attached to Pedro Florimon; he shines defensively, teased a little with some early hitting and the Twins stole him as a waiver wire pickup. If you think that last point doesn’t really matter, then you don’t know me. But Florimon is now just 27 points of the 600 OPS I feared he would ultimately have. Escobar has been hitting in Rochester - .287/.364/.419. More encouraging is that the 24-year-old (2 years younger than Florimon) has 14 BB and 29 strikeouts, which is a bit better than the nearly 1:4 ratio he had in AAA prior to this season. Finally, Escobar’s defensive reputation is much better than he demonstrated in his fairly short time with the Twins. It makes sense to see if Escobar can reverse first impressions this fall. The problem is that if he succeeds, the Twins are right where they were to start the season – without any real answer at shortstop. But truthfully, that can be said for any number of positions. The Twins have more questions than answers. Perhaps September and it’s callups will provides some clues.
  4. Aaron and John talk about Joe Mauer's concussion and potential position switch, September call-up possibilities, dating at the State Fair, where Aaron Hicks begins next season, runners in scoring position problems, staying up all night, the plan for Kyle Gibson, mailbag questions from listeners, not eating Justin Morneau's contract, and trying to stay realistic with Miguel Sano. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]
  5. There is a pattern here, and it goes back further than 2011. You'll find the same trends in 2005 and 2007 when the Twins were not competetive - the team goes in the tank. But you have to look at the other side, too. When the team has been good and smelled a possible postseason, they have been very, very good. Check out the streaks that some of those Twins teams went on in the second half. It's impressive. Personally, I am OK with putting some of that at Gardy's feet, both the good and the bad. It's been a little too consistent to be just chance, IMHO.
  6. Aaron and John talk about Justin Morneau going unclaimed on waivers, the rotation being heavy on mediocrity for 2014, getting blocked by a documentary film crew, free agent pitching options for the offseason, how to be a fan by way of Andrew Albers, adventures in dog-sitting, drinking vs. not drinking, winning bets on Nick Blackburn, and Doug Mientkiewicz brawling. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]
  7. You can tell I'm a dog person, because I always enjoy these posts. Thanks for writing it up Sidney.
  8. The Twins are wrapping up a stretch of 30 games which was the easiest stretch they'll get this year. They played all below .500 teams except for the Indians in that time. And they still didnt go on a hot streak, or not much of one. When was the last time they were within a half dozen games of .500? It hasn't been a dismal season, but they're still going to need to finish well to avoid a 90 loss season. And that seems about right to me - better than the reall ad teams, but not remotely a contender right now.
  9. I don't really know how this has been studied,but you're right that there is plenty of anecdotal evidence recently.
  10. Really interesting analysis. It's very heartening to see these trends appear when you look further into the numbers. I'll admit - prior to reading this, I didn't have a lot of hope for Santana.
  11. In terms of pure money, I think BlairPaul's are more likely. I'd like an additional option year if I was the Twins, either the $6M year or one more at the end. But that seems to be a middle ground. From Cot's, here was Longoria's contract for comparison: But to me, the more interesting question is how early the Twins should commit guaranteed money to a 20yo kid who recently told his manager that he would do whatever the hell he wanted. Are you hurting Sano's development by giving him too much too soon if he has that kind of attitude? From what little I know about him, I don't think I'd commit that much money that soon. The kid already has $3M in his pockets and has been a prodigy since he was in his early teens. I want him at least a little hungry.
  12. It looks like you pulled that quote from someplace. Would you mind sharing the link? So he has 103 RBI in 118 games, and needs 19 more in his last 22 games. It certainly sounds doable...
  13. I know I read that Anibal Sanchez is the last guy to go this long as a starter. I don't know what the record is, though.
  14. I'm often asked this question, even by serious sports fans, who are frustrated they don't have any championship teams in town. There is certainly more drama in a season where the team has a chance, but yeah, I watch baseball because I like baseball, the same reason someone else might watch reality TV. But one tip: marriage is #1. It must be #1. It suffers no rivals. It suffers no non negotiables. Not children nor money nor house nor job nor even baseball. Throw it back to the top of the list, let your wife know that, and slot baseball in next. Your life will be better.
  15. As Minnesotans, we take no joy in kicking people when they're down. Isn't enough that the White Sox are in the AL Central cellar, 8.5 games back of the the 4th place (and rival) Minnesota Twins, against whom they are 3-9 this season? Isn't it enough that they're on pace to lose 100+ games for just the 3rd time in their 113-year history? Isn't it enough that their minor league system is a barren wasteland, providing almost zero hope for the future? Nope. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]This week is the last chance you have to let the White Sox know exactly how much you're enjoying their 2013 season, so lets' find the best Target Field seats and for spending quality time with the Pale Hose: Adam Dunn - Section 14 The tough part about heckling Adam Dunn is choosing where to start. Obviously, there is the last name, which comes in handy for signage. His nickname - Big Donkey - is ripe with possibilities. And his contract, which pays $15 million/year is painful in so many delightful ways. (I like to remind the Sox of that after he strikes out. Which he did 222 times last year, including 10 times at Target Field.) But my favorite is fact is that despite having not hit above .200 against left-handed pitchers since 2009, he not only is in the lineup vs. southpaws, he consistently bats 4th or 5th. I can hardly wait until he faces Andrew Albers with the bases loaded so I can yell "Dunn's up! THANK GOD!" Robin Ventura - Section 11 Taking over for Ozzie Guillen last year, Ventura drew rave reviews as the White Sox surprised everyone by finishing within spitting distance of the Tigers, though they still missed the playoffs. This year - not so much. The frequent camera shots of Ventura this last weekend showed a manager who seemed even less invested in winning games than his players. If you sit near him, you might want to check frequently with him to make sure he's still awake. Mark Buehrle - Bullpen seats in 131 Except you need to wait until the Marlins come back to town. Jake Peavy - Section 12 Except you need to wait until the Red Sox come to town. Ozzie Guillen - Section 10 Except you need to wait until the Cuban National Team comes to town. (Not really.) AJ Pierzynski - Section 334 (Boos carry.) Except you need to wait until the Rangers come to town. White Sox Fans - Any seat in Target Field I'm sure not every White Sox fan is a jerk, but if someone wanted to take that stance, there would be plenty of anecdotal evidence to support it. I suspect it comes from their second division standing in their own town (to a team that is nationally viewed as perpetual losers, no less). The Cubs are the hobbits, and so the White Sox and their fans have decided to play the role of the orcs. As such, it's probably best not to engage them, but if you're forced to, remember that we replaced Pierzynski with Joe Mauer. I wonder how their replacement, Tyler Flowers, is doing? Tyler Flowers - Section 8 and 9 For years, Flowers was the heir apparent at catcher for the White Sox - and yet they kept re-signing AJ Pierzynski. Now we know why. He's hitting .193. Sometimes heckling just takes care of itself. Paul Konerko - Section 3 Did you know that in 854 career at-bats versus the Twins, Paul Konerko has 917 hits? That's right - he has more hits than at-bats. You can look it up. (Editors note: Don't look it up. It's not true. It's not even possible.) This year the 37-year-old Konerko has been a shell of himself, injured and hitting just .241 with a 655 OPS. (Of course, the White Sox are still batting him 4th and 5th. See: Dunn, Adam.) So if you want to heckle him, this is the year. But personally, I'll refrain. To me, Konerko represents what the White Sox could be - confident enough to be brutally honest but productive enough to back it up. If this is the last time he plays at Target Field - and it could be, because his contract with them ends this year and there has been retirement talk - I'd like to be there. It would be worth the time to show up and maybe even respectfully acknowledge him sticking it to the Twins one more time. He's earned that.
  16. I don't think this is overly optimistic. The key, to me, is still starting pitching. The Twins need to figure out just where that is coming from. Morrow is an interesting name to throw out there.
  17. [ATTACH=CONFIG]5094[/ATTACH]Aaron and John talk about the Minnesota Twins' lack of trade deadline moves, Aaron's trip to Philadelphia for the SABR convention, Oswaldo Arcia's return and Aaron Hicks' long-delayed demotion, bonding with people over Jim Thome, Drew Butera's departure, standing behind Delmon Young, what goes into the August waiver process, the looming roster logjam, and drinking all of the Jack Daniels. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com.
  18. Aaron and John talk about the Minnesota Twins' lack of trade deadline moves, Aaron's trip to Philadelphia for the SABR convention, Oswaldo Arcia's return and Aaron Hicks' long-delayed demotion, bonding with people over Jim Thome, Drew Butera's departure, standing behind Delmon Young, what goes into the August waiver process, the looming roster logjam, and drinking all of the Jack Daniels. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]
  19. Thanks guys, this helps me out a lot. (I was the admin.) But what puzzles me is that is seems it is only happening every once in a while? He's not doing this every game? So a couple times per year he looks like a knuckleballer, and the rest of the time he's an average (both in quality and approach) pitcher? And does the data suggest he is trying to do it but just not quite as good on those days, or that he saves it for some special pitches, or that some days he can do it and some days he just can't at all?
  20. Sponsored by Ticket King There is a lot worth remembering about baseball games. We remember games and catches and our kids’ face as a stadium shook and their faith was rewarded. And we remember players, whose time in the sunshine can be far too short for our taste. With the trade deadline falling on Wednesday, it is likely the next few days will be our last chance to say good-bye to some Twins. And one of the most likely to move is one of Twins Territory’s all-time favorites. So let’s take a look at the best seats in Target Field for saying goodbye to our friends. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Kevin Correia or Mike Pelfrey It isn’t totally crazy that the Twins, whose rotation has the worst ERA in the majors, could trade away a starting pitcher to a contending team. There are very few “ace” pitchers available, so teams are looking for innings-eaters who can keep them in a ballgame – and for whom they won’t need to give up too much. Kevin Correia has a 4.56 ERA, which is likely worse than you thought because it was under 3.00 through the beginning of May and under 4.00 as late as June 29th. He’s also on pace for 194 IP this year. There are teams that can find value in that for the right price. Alternately, Mike Pelfrey looks like he’s becoming stronger and stronger, which should be expected for someone coming back from Tommy John surgery. Here are his ERAs by month: 7.66 down to 5.90 down to 4.66 down to 2.28 in July. His strikeout rate has been climbing too: 2.8 up to 5.9 to 5.6 up to 6.5. It’s not clear if other teams recognize this progress, but that’s why they have scouting departments. If you would like to wish them well, you can pay top dollar in the infield, sections 3-14 are probably best. But if you prefer a cheaper option, just get a seat anyplace in Target Field and get there early. You can watch them warm up using the standing room counter that looks over the Twins bullpen in center field. I doubt either pitcher will begrudge you your frugality. After all, they were both signed as affordable alternatives. Josh Willingham You’ll have a little time on this one. Willingham is recovering from a knee injury. He’s schedule to return in mid-August, but if he clears waivers, the Twins have until the end of August to trade him. Lower seats in sections 125, 126 and 127 are probably the best spots if you’re looking to shout to him your appreciation. Of, if you would rather look for a Willingham souvenir, I’d recommend section 128, 129, 130 and 131. It’s in these sections – in the left field bleachers – that Willingham has been most likely to pull his home runs. In fact, of the 45 home runs he’s blasted while with the Twins, exactly zero have been to the opposite field. It’s also worth noting that if he returns healthy, those home runs could start flying again. He had 35 last year and four more through April 27th, when it was first reported that he hurt his knee. They also tend to come in bunches – he had eight occurrences last year where he went long in back-to-back games. Justin Morneau Section 3. It really has to be section 3. It’s right by first base. It’s what he runs towards when he flips an inning-ending ball into the dugout. He’s number 33. It has to be section 3, right? Of all the goodbyes that we might need to say, this one is going to hurt the most. The recognition that everyone remembers was his MVP award in 2006. But do you remember his also finished in second place for a another MVP award just two years later in 2008? And neither of those years were even close to the damage he was doing in 2010 in Target Field’s inaugural year. Through 84 games he was hitting .345, had slugged 18 HR, had drove in 56 RBI and had a 1055(!) OPS. Then he slid into second base to break up a double-play in Toronto. But we’ve talked about that enough the last three years. Instead let’s talk a little about what he did off the field. Morneau became a part of the community, hosting several casino nights that raised money for Arthritis research and founded the Justin Morneau Foundation to support underprivileged communities. He married a native Minnesotan. He’s got that whole Canadian and hockey thing going for him. And he’s been a leader on the Twins for years, respected enough internally to be the full-time locker room DJ before games. He passed Kirby Puckett and Bobby Allison on the Twins home run leaderboard this year, moving into fourth place. (He could climb to 3rd and pass Tony Oliva if he can hit nine more this year.) He’s also fourth in RBI all-time for the Twins and fifth all-time in doubles (though teammate Joe Mauer is nipping at his heels for that honor.) And he’s one of only five Twins to have ever won the Most Valuable Player award. He is certainly one of the top 10 Twins hitters of all time and you want to see those guys retire as Twins. It doesn’t always happen – not for Gary Gaetti or for Rod Carew or even for Harmon Killebrew – but that’s what we all WANT to see. And I, for one, would like to see him play one more time as a Twin. Even if it’s just to say “goodbye.” And “thank you.”
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