John Bonnes

There has been more and more talk lately about catcher framing, which is the ability of catchers to impact the runs scored in a game by garnering strikes from pitches outside the strike zone. My initial skepticism around it has largely been due to the huge impact it can have. For instance, last year the difference between the best pitch framer (Jonathan LuCroy) and the worst (John Buck) is estimated at 50 runs. That's a five win difference. That's hard to believe.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] But today I wanted to look at different aspect: its predictability. That is, if a catcher is good at framing in one year, can we reasonably assume that he'll be good at it the next year? One way to look at this is to look at all catchers and how they did from year to year. If they did well one year, did they do well the next and vice versa? (I wondered about this because I was looking up Kurt Suzuki's framing numbers. They're usually been negative, but there have been some positive ones sprinkled in. I wondered how common that is.) There is a neat little statistical gizmo to do this called a correlation coefficient. A correlation coefficient examines two sets of numbers and gives back a number between -1 and 1. 1 means there is a perfect correlation, like between the temperature in Celsius and the temperature in Fahrenheit. -1 means there is a perfectly negative correlation, like the amount you spend in a month and your checking balance. And if it's 0, that means the numbers have no correlation, like Joe Mauer's batting average and the migratory penguin population. You can find the results of my study here. The bottom line: there is a lot of predictability. The runs per season had a correlation of .76, which is high. But the correlation on pitches per game is even higher .82. So catchers who have had a large positive effect end up continuing to do so. Unfortunately, most of the Twins who will play catcher this year didn't have a large positive effect last year. In fact, none of them did: Kurt Suzuki: -9.1 Josmil Pinto: -4.3 Chris Herrmann:-4.6 Eric Fryer: -0.8 I didn't choose that order to emphasize the negative. I chose to list them in my predicted order of innings caught. It's almost as if the worse they are at pitch framing, the more likely they are to play catcher. And this is where John starts rubbing his temples. And yet, that still might be better than last year. Because last year Joe Mauer was average (0.4) and Ryan Doumit was horrendous (-15.9). Still, it appears the new catching corps may not do the Twins revamped pitching staff any favors this year. ~~~ Since I'm sure you might want to do something like this yourself (and really, why wouldn't you - YEAY MATH), I thought I'd spell out the steps. 1. I pulled all the data I could from this great site and pasted it into a spreadsheet. It has all the catcher framing data from 2013 through 2007. 1b. I forgot to mention - I also limited the study to catchers with at least 3000 "samples" in a season which I assume are pitches. 2. I added one column to that data: "Prev Yr." You'll see why in a minute. 3. I imported that spreadsheet into an Access DB twice, once as a table called "Following" and another as "Previous". 4. I created a query joining those two tables, joining fields First Name, Last Name and "Prev Yr" from following to "Year" from the Previous field. I pulled the Names, Years, Per Game and RAA fields from each table. 5. Copy and paste the results from the query back into an Excel spreadsheet. 6. Use the "Correl" function to compare the values in the two "Per Game" and two RAA" fields. Ta Da!

There has been more and more talk lately about pitch framing, which is the ability for catchers to impact the runs scored in a game by garnering strikes from pitches outside the strike zone. My initial skepticism around it has largely been due to the huge impact it can seem to have. For instance, last year the difference between the best pitch framer (Matt LuCroy) and the worst (John Buck) is estimated at 50 runs. That's a five win difference. That's hard to believe. But today I wanted to look at a different aspect: its predictability. That is, if a catcher is good at framing in one year, can we reasonably assume he'll be good at it the next year? One way to look at this is to look at all catchers and how they did from year to year. If they do well one year, will the do well the next and vice versa? (I wondered this because I was looking up Kurt Suzuki's framing numbers. They're usually been negative, but there have been some positive ones sprinkled in. I wondered how common that is.) There is a neat little statistical gizmo to do this called a correlation coefficient. A correlation coefficient examines two sets of numbers and gives back a number between -1 and 1. 1 means there is a perfect correlation, like between the temperature in Celsius and the temperature in Fahrenheit. -1 means there is a perfectly negative correlation, like the amount you spend in a month and your checking balance. And if it's 0, that means the numbers have no correlation, like Joe Mauer's batting average and the migratory penguin population. You can find the results of my study here. The bottom line: there is a lot of predictability. The runs per season had a correlation of .76, which is high. But the correlation on pitches per game is even higher .82. So catchers who have had a large positive effect end up continuing to do so. Unfortunately, most of the Twins who will play catcher this year didn't have a large positive effect last year. In fact, none of them did: Kurt Suzuki: -9.1 Josmil Pinto: -4.3 Chris Herrmann:-4.6 Eric Fryer: -0.8 I didn't choose that order to emphasize the negative. I chose listed them in my predicted order of innings caught. It's almost as if the worse they are at pitch framing, the more likely they are to play catcher. And this is where John starts rubbing his temples. And yet, that still might be better than last year. Because last year Joe Mauer was average (0.4) and Ryan Doumit was horrendous (-15.9). Still, it appears that new catching corps may not be doing the Twins revamped pitching staff any favors this year. ~~~ Since I'm sure you might want to do something like this yourself (and really, why wouldn't you - YEAY MATH), I thought I'd spell out the steps. 1. I pulled all the data I could from this great site and pasted it into a spreadsheet. It has all the catcher framing data from 2013 through 2007. 2. I added one column to that data: "Prev Yr." You'll see why in a minute. 3. I imported that spreadsheet into an Access DB twice, once as a table called "Following" and another as "Previous". 4. I created a query joining those two tables, joining fields First Name, Last Name and "Prev Yr" from following to "Year" from the Previous field. I pulled the Names, Years, Per Game and RAA fields from each table. 5. Copy and paste the results from the query back into an Excel spreadsheet. 6. Use the "Correl" function to compare the values in the two "Per Game" and two RAA" fields. Ta Da!

Aaron and John visit Rye Deli on the same day the offseason ends and discuss what we want to see from the 2014 Twins, what to expect from the pitching staff and how to start their own bar with zero experience. You can listen by clicking below, or download us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Here's this week's breakdown: 2:00 - Aaron’s moving update 3:30 – Brunch 4:20 – Players in the best shape of their life 8:00 – John & Aaron’s public speaking schedule 14:00 – John meeting Aaron’s Mom 17:30 – Twins claiming LHP Brooks Raley 24:30 – Underrating and overrating Derek Jeter 37:20 – Rye Deli owner David Weinstein tutors John & Aaron on how to start a restaurant/bar with no experience 44:30 – What’s important for the Twins 2014 season? 59:40 – What can we expect from the starting rotation in 2014? 1:05:00 – Valentine’s Day 1:12:00 – Mailbag 1:29:00 – The first kiss 1:31:30 – Parker’s Second Chance Video

Aaron and John talk about potential spring training position battles, Miguel Sano's timetable, late-signing free agent pitching, new theme songs from New Zealand, a sponsor's resume, bar crawls, Terry Ryan's cancer diagnosis, mailbag questions from listeners, choosing an Olympic sport to pair up in, slumming it on other podcasts, and how to stupidly avoid moving at all costs. You can listen by clicking below, or download us from: iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

The 2013 Draft is going to be judged almost completely on the ascension of pitcher Kohl Stewart. That’s as intriguing as a $4.5 million bet on a roulette ball, hopping red to black. So much reward. So much risk. So little control. The 100 Word Primer Stewart was last year’s first round draft choice, fourth overall. After signing with the Twins, his first couple of months as a professional did not disappoint. He had the mid-90s fastball. He struck out 24 guys (both as a reliever and as a starter) and walked only four in 20 innings. He made one start in the higher of the two rookie leagues, a level below A-ball. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] He’s high reward, high risk. The high risk is that he’s an 18-year-old pitcher – and there are lots of risks, both developmental and physical, associated with pitchers that young. On the other hand, it's hard to pass up someone with his upside and athleticism, either. They don't come along very often. 200 Words Deeper The Twins have been criticized plenty for focusing on control pitchers without big arms, but with this draft pick (and the $4.5M price tag that went with it) they got the consensus highest upside arm in the draft. Stewart’s fastball supposedly works around 93 mph and can go as high as 97, and he’s still just 18 years old. That’s the good news. The better news is that it’s not his best pitch. Stewart’s slider moves at 80mph, has a hard, late break, and looks a lot like his fastball until it’s too late. And he has worked with a changeup and a curveball, too. But what really gets people excited is that he could become much, much better. He’s very athletic, turning down a scholarship to play quarterback at Texas A&M to sign with the Twins. He’s still considered a thrower instead of a pitcher – an athlete who has never really focused solely on baseball or the craft of pitching. To have someone already be so talented and also so raw – that’s the stuff daydreams are made of. Of course, it’s also the stuff of nightmares. Another word for “raw” is “crude”, which is how Keith Law described him in his prospect rankings this year. He still listed him as #76 overall, though. The 300 Word Question When does the roulette wheel stop? If you listen to Law, not very soon. Law posited that Stewart could be “a good five years away from the majors.” That would likely mean putting in a full year at Low-A Cedar Rapids this year. Then he would spend another year each at Fort Myers, New Britain and Rochester, as well as maybe a repeat year as he irons out some things a la Trevor May or Alex Meyer. Or – shudder – losing a year to an injury like Kyle Gibson or Alex Wimmers. That means waiting until 2018 or 2019. Ugh. I suspect that might induce a little grumbling for those interested in a more Kershawesome path to the majors. When the Dodgers drafted Clayton Kershaw seventh overall in 2006, they also started him in rookie leagues, just like the Twins did Stewart last year. And they started him the next year in Low-A, just like Stewart probably will this year. But that’s where things changed. After dominating Low A for 20 starts, Los Angeles promoted Kershaw straight to AA to end the season. The next years, he began the season in AA, made 11 starts, and was promoted to the majors as a 20-year-old. That’s super-aggressive for any team, let alone the Twins. If Stewart strikes out 134 batters in 97 innings like Kershaw did in the Midwest League, then maybe it’s worth some debate. But given the Twins history, Stewart’s initial condition and a healthy dose of caution, Law’s scenario is far more likely. Put the over/under at July of 2018 for now. And even that much optimism has me looking for wood to knock. The assumption implicit in that estimate is that he makes it at all, which is far from guaranteed. Don’t let it be said that the Twins are not willing to gamble when the opportunity presents itself.

A surprise top-notch Twins starting pitching prospect? Yes, please. Let's play five questions: Who? That’s exactly what I said when Lewis Thorpe’s name started popping up on national prospect lists this offseason. Shame on me - we’ve been tracking him here for months. But the rest of you are forgiven. Thorpe has only been with the Twins since the middle of last year and was signed as a 16-year-old from Melbourne, Australia. He's only had eight starts in the minors. He wasn’t on many folks' radar going into the season – until the southpaw sprouted into his current 6’2” frame and flashed…. What? …a 92 mph fastball that can be dialed up to 95 at times. That led to 64 K in 44 IP in the Gulf Coast Rookie League, a league in which he was playing as a 17-year-old. Add that he’s left-handed and still growing and you can see why even national evaluators are paying attention. Where? The next natural step would be Elizabethton in the short-season rookie Appalachian League, which is where top draft pick Kohl Stewart ended his season last year. That would be a fairly conservative approach – but Thorpe would still be younger than Stewart was in that league. And if the Twins are feeling aggressive, he could find himself just a few hours south of the Twin Cities in Cedar Rapids as an 18-year-old. When? That will be as close as he’ll get to Target Field for a while. Even if he doesn’t stumble at any level, he likely won’t make it to the majors as a starter until 2018. By then, even Ricky Nolasco’s 4-year deal will be finished. Thorpe would hopefully be filling out a rotation chock full of young high-end arms, including Stewart and JO Berrios. Why? He’s ranked #9 because players with this kind of upside are valuable. Clearly, everyone will feel a lot more comfortable if he starts climbing the minor league ladder – or even had a full season of pitching to evaluate. But a kid Thorpe’s age in the States would likely be entering his senior year in high school, and we would be debating exactly where he would fall in the first round of the MLB draft. Like any 17-year-old pitcher, he has a long way to go and the odds are stacked against him. But he’s already surprised us plenty. There's no longer an excuse to not be paying attention.

Aaron and John talk about the Twins choosing Ricky Nolasco over Matt Garza, dreaming about Byron Buxton, Matt Guerrier's return, selling Andrew Albers to Korea, recapping the "Winter Meltdown" event, smoking after close, Hebrew school reunions, on-air interventions, Hammerheart's support, swapping wives, and Super Bowl parties. You can listen by clicking below, or download us from: iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

Aaron and John talk about the often confusing arbitration process and what it means for Trevor Plouffe, apartment shopping and kite festivals, Paul Molitor embracing video and analytics, Metrodome memories and Russian difficulties, Delmon Young going to Baltimore, pretending to be a soccer fan, brunch as a way of life, mailbag questions from listeners, and supermanning beer pong tables. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] You can listen by clicking below, download us from: iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com.

Aaron and John discuss the Minnesota Twins spring invitees, the rest of the available free agents, Aaron's reason for going to New Zealand, Hammerheart's smokey experiments, John's brilliant baseball tournament, what happened to a bunch of ex-Twins, Aaron's bucket list and one million reasons to love you crazy listeners. You can listen by clicking below, or download us from: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com.

Aaron and John take the podcast to Town Hall Lanes and talk about Eddie Rosario's "drug of abuse" suspension, Oswaldo Arcia's Winter League drama, turning 31 years old and putting yourself out there, persistent Matt Garza rumors,Twitter rankings, a crowded pitching roster, paying money to podcast, buying low, our bowling skills, Chris Kluwe and picking fights, Philadelphia for Christmas, and being out of options. You can listen by clicking below, download us from: iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

Following their third straight year of having their season torpedoed by a dismal starting rotation, the Minnesota Twins went on a free agent spending spree like Twins fans had never seen before. Within a month, they committed $86M to four players, including handing out their two largest contracts in team history. Those increases were not just a result of the inflated price of free agents. The top contract, a 4-year, $49M commitment to Ricky Nolasco, more than doubled the biggest contract the Twins had previously paid to a free agent, which was signed by Josh Willingham for 3-years and $21 million. Within a week, they topped that contract again, enticing Phil Hughes to ink a 3-year deal for $24 million. But this isn’t just about the amount of money. This also ran contrary to the Twins historical attitude towards signing free agent starting pitchers. Their biggest FA pitcher contract before this year was their much maligned 2-year, $10M deal with Kevin Correia. Other than that, they’ve never paid more than $5M – and that was to Livan Hernandez in 2007. So the deals with Nolasco, Hughes and a subsequent 2-year, $11M deal with Mike Pelfrey represent the three biggest contracts they’ve ever given to starting pitchers – and they all happened within a month. During the press conference in which they signed Nolasco, Terry Ryan was asked by Wally Langfellow of Minnesota Score magazine whether or not this reflected a change in philosophy for the Twins. “No, This isn’t a change in philosophy. We’ve always said, if we need to do something... Now we have the resources to do it. There’s no doubt, if we were still in the Metrodome, this probably wouldn’t happen. But we’re in Target Field. We’ve got more revenue and resources, certainly. This is a nice opportunity. We need pitching. We went out and got it. As people recall, we tried to retain [Johan] Santana or retain Torii Hunter. To some extent, we just didn’t have the wherewithal. We would not hesitate to jump into free agency. I don’t think it’s the greatest path, because it is risky. We all know that. Free agency is not the answer. It’s a help and a supplement to a roster. But if you’re relying on free agency year-in and year-out, it’s not gonna work. Now we’re in a situation where we need help. We need immediate help. And this is the reason Ricky is sitting here. But I don’t see this as a big change.” I don’t know if it’s a change in philosophy, but something sure changed. Hopefully, 2014 will show it is a change for the better.

It’s possible that Minnesota Twins fans, and Twins Daily fans in particular, got a little too worked up about Drew Butera’s Twins career. I’ll grant you that. Nevertheless, it was big news when the Twins lone “trade deadline” move was trading Butera to the Dodgers. The immediate announcement was for a “player to be named later” who ended up being Miguel Subran, an A-ball pitching prospect.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Certainly Butera hadn’t impacted the Twins much in 2013 – he had only three at-bats. (By the way, he had a similar impact with the Dodgers, totaling only seven at-bats with them.) And his usage in his three-and-a-half years with the major league club was relatively sparse. He totaled just 541 AB in his tenure. But it sure seemed more significant than that for anyone who lived through the 2011 season. That was the year Joe Mauer, with his career .323 batting average, was laid up for long spans with bi-lateral leg weakness. Butera ended up with the lion’s share of Mauer’s at-bats, posting a .167 batting average, even as the organization raved about his defense. It’s possible Butera's fans overrated that aspect of his game, while it’s also possible that Butera's critics underrated it, preferring to concentrate on his .181 career batting average. But both camps were encouraged by the return the Twins got from the Dodgers in the trade. The 19-year-old Sulbaran finished the year with a 2.96 ERA in Low A and 101K in 120 IP. He’s not a top prospect, but he’s the type to keep an eye on, as we wait to see if he can continue to develop as he matures. However, the excitement about this trade was mostly driven by the perception that the Twins were turning the page on an unhealthy infatuation with a player with limited upside. In a year with a quiet trade deadline, the organization seemed to recognize the right way to go and took a small step in that direction. Regardless of the return, that ended up being a big story in Twins Territory.

Aaron and John meet for happy hour at Summit and midst tasting beers review the wisdom behind giving Mike Pelfrey a two-year deal, the impact of trading Ryan Doumit to the Braves and whether Kurt Suzuki will cost Josmil Pinto a roster spot. In between, they taste a Nate Dog, try a firkin, wonder about Danny Valencia's legacy, battle over double-dipping, forecast a move to Uptown and wish Byron Buxton a happy birthday. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]You can listen by clicking below, download us fromiTunes or Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com.