John Bonnes

As Minnesotans, we take no joy in kicking people when they're down. Isn't enough that the White Sox are in the AL Central cellar, 8.5 games back of the the 4th place (and rival) Minnesota Twins, against whom they are 3-9 this season? Isn't it enough that they're on pace to lose 100+ games for just the 3rd time in their 113-year history? Isn't it enough that their minor league system is a barren wasteland, providing almost zero hope for the future? Nope. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]This week is the last chance you have to let the White Sox know exactly how much you're enjoying their 2013 season, so lets' find the best Target Field seats and for spending quality time with the Pale Hose: Adam Dunn - Section 14 The tough part about heckling Adam Dunn is choosing where to start. Obviously, there is the last name, which comes in handy for signage. His nickname - Big Donkey - is ripe with possibilities. And his contract, which pays $15 million/year is painful in so many delightful ways. (I like to remind the Sox of that after he strikes out. Which he did 222 times last year, including 10 times at Target Field.) But my favorite is fact is that despite having not hit above .200 against left-handed pitchers since 2009, he not only is in the lineup vs. southpaws, he consistently bats 4th or 5th. I can hardly wait until he faces Andrew Albers with the bases loaded so I can yell "Dunn's up! THANK GOD!" Robin Ventura - Section 11 Taking over for Ozzie Guillen last year, Ventura drew rave reviews as the White Sox surprised everyone by finishing within spitting distance of the Tigers, though they still missed the playoffs. This year - not so much. The frequent camera shots of Ventura this last weekend showed a manager who seemed even less invested in winning games than his players. If you sit near him, you might want to check frequently with him to make sure he's still awake. Mark Buehrle - Bullpen seats in 131 Except you need to wait until the Marlins come back to town. Jake Peavy - Section 12 Except you need to wait until the Red Sox come to town. Ozzie Guillen - Section 10 Except you need to wait until the Cuban National Team comes to town. (Not really.) AJ Pierzynski - Section 334 (Boos carry.) Except you need to wait until the Rangers come to town. White Sox Fans - Any seat in Target Field I'm sure not every White Sox fan is a jerk, but if someone wanted to take that stance, there would be plenty of anecdotal evidence to support it. I suspect it comes from their second division standing in their own town (to a team that is nationally viewed as perpetual losers, no less). The Cubs are the hobbits, and so the White Sox and their fans have decided to play the role of the orcs. As such, it's probably best not to engage them, but if you're forced to, remember that we replaced Pierzynski with Joe Mauer. I wonder how their replacement, Tyler Flowers, is doing? Tyler Flowers - Section 8 and 9 For years, Flowers was the heir apparent at catcher for the White Sox - and yet they kept re-signing AJ Pierzynski. Now we know why. He's hitting .193. Sometimes heckling just takes care of itself. Paul Konerko - Section 3 Did you know that in 854 career at-bats versus the Twins, Paul Konerko has 917 hits? That's right - he has more hits than at-bats. You can look it up. (Editors note: Don't look it up. It's not true. It's not even possible.) This year the 37-year-old Konerko has been a shell of himself, injured and hitting just .241 with a 655 OPS. (Of course, the White Sox are still batting him 4th and 5th. See: Dunn, Adam.) So if you want to heckle him, this is the year. But personally, I'll refrain. To me, Konerko represents what the White Sox could be - confident enough to be brutally honest but productive enough to back it up. If this is the last time he plays at Target Field - and it could be, because his contract with them ends this year and there has been retirement talk - I'd like to be there. It would be worth the time to show up and maybe even respectfully acknowledge him sticking it to the Twins one more time. He's earned that.

Aaron and John talk about the Minnesota Twins' lack of trade deadline moves, Aaron's trip to Philadelphia for the SABR convention, Oswaldo Arcia's return and Aaron Hicks' long-delayed demotion, bonding with people over Jim Thome, Drew Butera's departure, standing behind Delmon Young, what goes into the August waiver process, the looming roster logjam, and drinking all of the Jack Daniels. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

Sponsored by Ticket King There is a lot worth remembering about baseball games. We remember games and catches and our kids’ face as a stadium shook and their faith was rewarded. And we remember players, whose time in the sunshine can be far too short for our taste. With the trade deadline falling on Wednesday, it is likely the next few days will be our last chance to say good-bye to some Twins. And one of the most likely to move is one of Twins Territory’s all-time favorites. So let’s take a look at the best seats in Target Field for saying goodbye to our friends. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Kevin Correia or Mike Pelfrey It isn’t totally crazy that the Twins, whose rotation has the worst ERA in the majors, could trade away a starting pitcher to a contending team. There are very few “ace” pitchers available, so teams are looking for innings-eaters who can keep them in a ballgame – and for whom they won’t need to give up too much. Kevin Correia has a 4.56 ERA, which is likely worse than you thought because it was under 3.00 through the beginning of May and under 4.00 as late as June 29th. He’s also on pace for 194 IP this year. There are teams that can find value in that for the right price. Alternately, Mike Pelfrey looks like he’s becoming stronger and stronger, which should be expected for someone coming back from Tommy John surgery. Here are his ERAs by month: 7.66 down to 5.90 down to 4.66 down to 2.28 in July. His strikeout rate has been climbing too: 2.8 up to 5.9 to 5.6 up to 6.5. It’s not clear if other teams recognize this progress, but that’s why they have scouting departments. If you would like to wish them well, you can pay top dollar in the infield, sections 3-14 are probably best. But if you prefer a cheaper option, just get a seat anyplace in Target Field and get there early. You can watch them warm up using the standing room counter that looks over the Twins bullpen in center field. I doubt either pitcher will begrudge you your frugality. After all, they were both signed as affordable alternatives. Josh Willingham You’ll have a little time on this one. Willingham is recovering from a knee injury. He’s schedule to return in mid-August, but if he clears waivers, the Twins have until the end of August to trade him. Lower seats in sections 125, 126 and 127 are probably the best spots if you’re looking to shout to him your appreciation. Of, if you would rather look for a Willingham souvenir, I’d recommend section 128, 129, 130 and 131. It’s in these sections – in the left field bleachers – that Willingham has been most likely to pull his home runs. In fact, of the 45 home runs he’s blasted while with the Twins, exactly zero have been to the opposite field. It’s also worth noting that if he returns healthy, those home runs could start flying again. He had 35 last year and four more through April 27th, when it was first reported that he hurt his knee. They also tend to come in bunches – he had eight occurrences last year where he went long in back-to-back games. Justin Morneau Section 3. It really has to be section 3. It’s right by first base. It’s what he runs towards when he flips an inning-ending ball into the dugout. He’s number 33. It has to be section 3, right? Of all the goodbyes that we might need to say, this one is going to hurt the most. The recognition that everyone remembers was his MVP award in 2006. But do you remember his also finished in second place for a another MVP award just two years later in 2008? And neither of those years were even close to the damage he was doing in 2010 in Target Field’s inaugural year. Through 84 games he was hitting .345, had slugged 18 HR, had drove in 56 RBI and had a 1055(!) OPS. Then he slid into second base to break up a double-play in Toronto. But we’ve talked about that enough the last three years. Instead let’s talk a little about what he did off the field. Morneau became a part of the community, hosting several casino nights that raised money for Arthritis research and founded the Justin Morneau Foundation to support underprivileged communities. He married a native Minnesotan. He’s got that whole Canadian and hockey thing going for him. And he’s been a leader on the Twins for years, respected enough internally to be the full-time locker room DJ before games. He passed Kirby Puckett and Bobby Allison on the Twins home run leaderboard this year, moving into fourth place. (He could climb to 3rd and pass Tony Oliva if he can hit nine more this year.) He’s also fourth in RBI all-time for the Twins and fifth all-time in doubles (though teammate Joe Mauer is nipping at his heels for that honor.) And he’s one of only five Twins to have ever won the Most Valuable Player award. He is certainly one of the top 10 Twins hitters of all time and you want to see those guys retire as Twins. It doesn’t always happen – not for Gary Gaetti or for Rod Carew or even for Harmon Killebrew – but that’s what we all WANT to see. And I, for one, would like to see him play one more time as a Twin. Even if it’s just to say “goodbye.” And “thank you.”

Aaron and John talk about the Minnesota Twins' options at the trade deadline, Miguel Sano's benching at Double-A, Justin Morneau's place in team history, what to make of Samuel Deduno (again), Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia going in opposite directions, the light rail pub crawl/Twins game on September 14, Joe Mauer's paternity leave, and answering mailbag questions from listeners. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

Let’s start with this: I don’t care if Aaron Hicks slid or not – Joe Vavra blew the call to send him last night in the fourth inning. This is not debatable. I doubt Vavra would debate it. And even had Hicks slipped into some shiny leather and slid like Kate Beckinsale in Underworld, he was still going to be out. It was not close. It was Vavra's mistake that the announcers should have been talking about. Here was the situation. The Twins lead 2-1 in the top of the fourth inning. Hicks was on second base, which he had easily stolen. Leadoff hitter Brian Dozier was up to bat with one out. He hit a line drive to left field. It appears Hicks got a slow start but was waved home the whole way by third base coach Vavra. It was not close, the throw reached the catcher on a bounce and Hicks was out by several feet. He tried to dipsy-doo around the catcher, looked silly, and was criticized by announcer Roy Smalley for not sliding. And he deserved that. But the the more significant message was delivered by play-by-play announcer Dick Bremer who announced that Hicks was being sent home with (what I would call) surprise in his voice. Because Hicks never had much chance. Making outs is a cardinal sin for a third base coach. (Technically, I forget whether it’s a subset of “gluttony” or “greed”.) But in this case, the story is not to beat up Vavra about a bad call. It’s just to explain the philosophy a third base coach must have, and the math behind why he must have it. And maybe learn why Vavra could risk a little more on this play. The basic rule for a third base coach is if you think there’s a decent chance your runner can get thrown out, stop him. This can be shown mathematically, which I’ll demonstrate below, but it also just makes sense: the value of the extra base, even though it’s tied to a run, is nowhere near the cost of adding an out AND losing a baserunner at 3rd base. Sabrmetrics has provided a lot more precision, and it lends a little extra insight in this case. In this game, because the hitter can advance into scoring position on a throw to the plate, that rule is not quite as stringent. Sabrmetrics, for problems like this, uses something called Palmer and Thorn’s Run Expectancy Matrix. Pete Palmer and Roger Thorn studied 75 years worth of baseball games and found out the average number of runs that scored in basic situations. (By the way, they did this back in 1975.) You can find it here, but these are the relevant numbers: The average team with runners on 1st and 3rd and one out will score 1.088 runs in that inning. That’s what happens if Vavra holds up the “stop” sign. The average team with a runner on 2nd and two outs will score .348 runs in that inning. That’s what happens if Vavra waves Hicks home and he’s thrown out. The average team, with a runner on 2nd and one out will score .699 runs in that inning, PLUS they would have already scored a run, so that’s 1.699 runs. That’s what happens if Vavra waves Hicks home and he’s safe. So if Hicks is sent home and safe, the Twins gain about .6 runs. If he’s out, they lose .75 runs. It doesn’t take a math major (just a good algebra background) to see that Hicks needs to be safe about 55% of the time to break even. If Vavra felt it was a “coin flip” situation, sending Hicks is defendable. (It didn’t look like it was, but given Hicks speed, maybe he had additional confidence.) Now that’s just the base rule. It assumes that there are average hitters and average pitchers and average fielders, etc. In this case there were some extenuating circumstances. For starters, the next hitter was not average. In face, Doug Bernier didn’t have a major league hit and he's 32 years old. He might be more likely to strike out or to hit into a double play than an average hitter, so maybe sending the runner makes more sense. Of course, Joe Blanton is on the mound, and he hasn't been an average pitcher. He might be more likely to give up a couple more hits, so maybe it's a better idea not to send the runner. Finally, batting behind Bernier is Joe Mauer, who is a pretty good guy to have up in a clutch situation, which is probably the best reason to keep everyone from risking that extra out. So in this game, it’s hard to find extra incentive to risk that out. But the decision by Vavra to send Hicks by might not have been as egregiously wrong as it initially looked. (And certainly not as bad as it looked after Bernier’s double.) Third base coaches need to be pretty conservative in general, but as far as picking a moment to be aggressive, this was a pretty good choice.

Aaron and John talk about what to expect from the trade deadline, Scott Diamond's demise, John reviewing ballparks and beer from his West Coast vacation, criticizing an opposing manager for once, analyzing the Twins' defense, dating by way of pitching matchups, eating money to move Justin Morneau, what to buy from the Metrodome wreckage, golf vs. baseball and the notion of clutch, and time traveling to kill middle infielders.You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

Buyers or Sellers They’re buyers. The Cardinals are one of three teams in the NL Central, along with the Pirates and Reds, who have the three best records in the National League. Each seems assured of a playoff spot. However, only one of them is assured of a playoff series, and that’s the division winner. The other two will be subjected to the wild card playoff game, which could result in a quick ending to a promising season. So the Cardinals have plenty of incentive to figure out a way to separate themselves from that pack. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] What They Need Almost all of the Cardinals rumors indicate they're looking for starting pitching or bullpen help. It’s not totally clear why – their team ERA is 3.33, which is good for 3rd overall in MLB. And starting pitcher (and former Cy Young award winner) Chris Carpenter is supposed to be back at the end of the month. That might be the starting pitching they need to acquire. They could be interested in a left-handed reliever. They have 37-year-old Randy Choate, but he’s almost the penultimate LOOGY (Lefty One Out Guy). In fact, he just set a record for the most consecutive appearances without pitching a full inning. It’s conceivable the Cardinals might want someone with a little more flexibility. They seem set at closer with Edward Mujica doing the job now and Trevor Rosenthal waiting in the wings if Mujica leaves as a free agent this offseason. Finally, the Cardinals have had some problems at third base, but 30-year-old David Freese seems to have recovered from a sore thumb and is back to hitting. He’s still only at a .273 BA and a 736 OPS, but he’s trending in the right direction. Jon Jay in center field has cooled quite a bit, but the Twins don’t have a right-handed center fielder to offer in a platoon, other than Hicks. What Might Work General Manager John Mozeliak says he’s not going to trade away any top prospects like outfielder Oscar Taveras or pitcher Michael Wacha and really, why would he? His team doesn’t have a glaring weakness. The best bet is something strategic, like Brian Duensing for a lower level prospect. Sleeper Targets The good news is that in Keith Law’s most recent farm system rankings, the Cardinals were #1 overall – the only organization above the Twins. But there are also some non-prospects that are interesting. Seth Maness –RHP – MLB – 24 years old Maness wasn’t a top 10 prospect, but was always recognized for his impeccable control; he walked 9 and struck out 83 last year in AA over 123.2 innings. He started this year in their AAA rotation but has been working out of their bullpen since. He won’t blow anyone away – 13K and 4BB in 27.7 IP, but has a career ERA in the minors of 2.80. He could be a solid back of the rotation innings eater. Tyrell Jenkins – RHP – High A – 20 years old If you’re more a fan of future potential and willing to accept some risk, Jenkins might be more your speed. The former football player has a 93-96 mph fastball but hasn’t shown he knows how to control it or how to develop an offspeed pitch. He’s a project, but a project with upside. Pete Kozma/Daniel Descalso – SS – MLB – 25/26 years old I’ll take whichever one they’re tired of. Kozma surprised late last year, but is hitting just .236 this year. Descalso may be stealing his job, but he’s just a year removed from hitting .227. Kozma will be a great defender, Descalso a great utility player. Neither will hit much, but I’ll take a flyer on either. Dream Target Matt Adams – 1B – MLB –24 years old If the Cardinals can’t find room for him at first base, the Twins sure can. Adams is blocked by Allen Craig, who is having a heck of a year - .324/.370/.491. But Adams has put up a 30+ home run year just two years ago in the minors, blistered AAA last year and is hitting .319 with a 953 OPS this year. I don’t know just what the Twins would need to do to pry him away, but he’d be a great addition, even if he does bat left-handed.

Aaron and John talk about falling out of love with this year's Twins team, Josh Willingham's frustrating injury situation, Aaron Hicks' return, cutting bait on P.J. Walters, Jared Burton and the bullpen imploding, Brian Dozier showing signs of life, John's motorcycle-related idiocy, million-dollar teenagers, and which of the seven former Twins who made the All-Star team were mistakes. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]