John Bonnes

Download attachment: TD-birthday.JPG About 15 months ago, Nick, Parker, Seth and I began talking about creating a Minnesota Twins website for independent writers and fans. It became clear we were on the right path when the question we asked ourselves changed from "Are we going to do this?" and became "Why the hell didn't we do this five years ago?" So, really, today should be Twins Daily's sixth birthday. If it was, this site would make a lot more sense. Six years seems about the right amount of time to generate 1200 Twins stories by independent writers. 2500 registered members over that time would seem reasonable. Over 6 years, 14,000 posts and comments per year would get us to the 84,000 that have already been entered. And we would be doing backflips over 6.2 million page views during that six-year period. Except that we didn't start it six years ago. Those numbers are all from this first year. And you're the difference. You're the difference in a lot of other ways, too. We are daily witnessing members find their voice, either in the blogs or in the forums. Our community has become the definitive source for Twins minor league coverage. Also, discussion about the team is increasingly centered around thoughtful analysis, both internally and in the corporate media. You're the driving force for all of these. Best of all, the community, content and interaction just keep growing. Our numbers are showing 30-50% growth this year, even as the Twins are selling 25% fewer season tickets. But we're determined to do better, so please let us know your thoughts about the site. So Happy First Birthday everyone! Go for it - stick your whole face in that cake. The site is in its infancy, but you've already made our wildest dreams come true. Thank you. We'll do our best to continue to deserve your attention and support. Click here to view the article

~ sponsored by Ticket King ~ Often Blue Jays don’t migrate, staying in cold weather most of the year. This year’s flock follows their example, coming to town during a cold snap, confident they can feast on a Twins team they beat five times in six tries last year. They shouldn’t count on it; unlike their namesakes, these Blue Jays live indoors. So for hardy Minnesota Twins fans, which game is the best ticket? Download attachment: 166.jpg The History The Blue Jays aren’t often listed among the ranks of MLBs most depressing clubs, but last year they “celebrated” 20 years since their last postseason appearance.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Management (and ownership) certainly did their best to end the streak prior to last season, buying half the Marlins team at a Miami fire sale. But instead of lifting them to the top of the division, age and injuries sunk them to the bottom of the AL East. They’re faring a little better this year, scratching their way to one game over .500. That’s a pretty fine record considering they’ve had to face the Rays, Yankees and Orioles already this season. But then again, since they’re in the AL East, they’ll be facing those team another 47 times. Oh, and none of them are the reigning AL East champions. Maybe it’s not so hard to see why it’s been 20 long years for Blue Jays fans…. The Offseason Last year’s uninspiring performance meant very few moves this offseason. You can hardly blame ownership, who already had $137 million dollars sunk into the payroll. However, the Blue Jays apparently came very close to signing to free agent pitcher Ervin Santana this spring when five veteran (and highly compensated) players – Jose Bautista, Mark Buehrle, R.A. Dickey, Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Reyes – said they were willing to defer their salary to bring him aboard. It was so close to happening that the MLBPA (the players union) had been approached and approved the deferrals. The Ticket That didn’t happen, so the Twins won’t face Santana, and instead face the three starting pitchers with the worst ERA on the team. Don’t get too excited about that. As we count down to the best ticket, you’ll see there are plenty of challenges ahead…. #3 – Tuesday night – Brandon Morrow vs Phil Hughes. Morrow is the right-handed flame thrower and he struck out nine in his last game. He teased for years, seemingly broke through to stardom in 2012 and then suffered through a miserable and injury-filled 2013. This year his ERA is 5.73, but he sports a 13:2 strikeout to walk ratio. That bodes well for the Jays. If you like raw stuff, here’s your game. Download attachment: dickey_ra_knuckleball_US_600.jpg #2 – Wednesday night – R.A. Dickey vs Mike Pelfrey The former Mets teammates battle in the American League. Dickey (who you might have mercifully forgotten, played with the Twins in 2009), is a knuckleballer, so it was damn hard not to pick this as The Ticket. His ERA is 5.30, but he’s still just a little over a year removed from a Cy Young Award. Get seats as close as you can and watch that butterfly hiccup. #1- Thursday night – Dustin McGowan vs Kyle Gibson Who would choose Dustin McGowan over RA Dickey? The answer, of course, is “almost everyone, six years ago.” That’s when McGowan was 26 years old and looked like an upper-half-of-the-rotation talent. It was also the last time he won a game EXCEPT for last week, when he beat the Orioles to garner his first “W” since 2008. He’s 32 years old, now, has been through a litany of shoulder woes and is scrapping to stay out of the bullpen. I’ll be rooting for him, well, to lose, obviously, but to lose a tightly contested matchup to Gibson. Also, Thursday is a day game. And it’s supposed to snow on Wednesday. That might have had something to do with my ticket choice, too. ~~~ In past years the Blue Jays have traveled surprisingly well, but this is looking like a great series for bargain hunters. TicketKingOnline.com has $3 tickets for all three games – and I see four seats in the Champions Club for just $135 apiece on Tuesday night. That’s $100 less than I’ve ever seen those. Plus, if you use the promo code DAILYDOUBLE, you’ll be supporting Twins Daily and get 10% off. Whatever your needs, your local ticket supplier, Ticket King, can help. Click here to view the article

Tonight The Voice of Reason™ and I went to a St. Paul Saints game. We soaked in a gorgeous Minnesota summer night, watched a bunch of kitsch and thoroughly enjoyed a game in which we had almost no emotional investment. Because it’s baseball. And it doesn’t last forever.Download attachment: Ballpark.jpg I hear Minnesota sports fans lauding the turning of the calendar page, anxious for football and the (albeit limited) hope new seasons bring. I’ll enjoy watching the Gophers and Vikings too. But I’m a baseball guy, and I can’t devise a night much better than I just had. So go ahead, tell me how tough it is for you to watch a Twins game right now. Or take it a step further; tell me how you won’t watch a Twins game right now. I won’t be upset. More like puzzled, because I see all kinds of things that are exciting to watch over these last six months of the season. Let’s count down the top six. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] 6. Sam Deduno The original sin in baseball is to overestimate how much you really know. Sabermetrically and historically, Deduno doesn’t make any sense. But maybe we don’t know everything about this game just yet. I’m very excited to see how this ends. 5. Chris Parmelee “Prospects” kind of get lumped together, and we’re poorer as fans for it. So let’s be clear – nobody has had a season like Parmelee is having in AAA since the Twins moved to Rochester. Not Cuddyer. Not Kubel. Not Morneau. That doesn’t mean he’s a star in the making. But I sure want to see what he can do. (And that includes what he can do – shudder – in right field.) 4. Liam Hendriks & Brian Dozier Two guys who were rushed through AAA, brought up to the majors and predictably struggled. I’ve seen enough from both to think they’re on the right path, they just have a ways to go. I’m convinced these stories are going to have a happy ending. 3. Denard Span & the Twins Medical Staff When Span is deemed unavailable for the 15th straight day, will the Twins finally feel comfortable putting him on the DL? Or perhaps they'll decide that they don’t need their medical staff any more, relying solely on the player’s self-diagnosis. When they need a second opinion they'll draw cards from the board game Operation. (The Wacky Doctor Game!) 2. Other September Callups I think we’re going to be disappointed by how few additional September callups there are, but I’m hopeful we’ll get to see some pitching. I’d love to see if Esmerling Vazquez’ recent hot streak represents a breakthrough. I’d like to see if Anthony Slama and his video-game-like stats prove the organization’s brain trust wrong. I’d like to see if Deolis Guerra could have a role next year. 1. Joe Mauer and Ben Revere As a Twins fan in the 70s, it wasn’t uncommon to have nothing more than a Carew batting title to root for come August. I’ll readily admit my fascination with Mauer and Revere’s longshot chances are based on that being an annual occurrence of my childhood. I’d likely be just as fascinated if they brought back the bullpen car. (Of course, who wouldn’t?) Click here to view the article

In his Sunday notes column, Boston Globe sportswriter Nick Cafardo mentioned that the Minnesota Twins continue to be pursuing catchers to replace Joe Mauer. And not just any catcher - the top remaining free agent catcher: Download attachment: Saltalamacchia_Jarrod_catcher_US_720.jpg As mentioned above, Saltalamacchia is a 28-year-old switch-hitting catcher who has hit 55 home run over the last three years with the Red Sox (which explains why this report is coming from a Boston newspaper). His OPS over those 3 years is .763, which would've been second on the Twins last year. Overall, those numbers about match what Ryan Doumit did back in 2012, which is very solid. This surprises me. I'm not surprised the Twins would try to sign a catcher, but it surprises me they would commit that kind of time and dollars to a catcher with Josmil Pinto, who was called up in September and thrived, on the verge of the major leagues. I guess I see a couple possibilities: 1) The Twins liked the "half-time" arrangement they had the last couple years with Ryan Doumit and Mauer, and would like to do the same with Pinto and Saltalamacchia. It would keep both well-rested and both can hit enough to be the designated hitter when they're not catching. I think you could say the same about AJ Pierzynski, to whom the Twins have also been linked. It would also allow Saltalamacchia and Doumit (if he can catch) to split time this year, giving Pinto some time in AAA, and then Pinto takes Doumit's spot on the roster when his contract ends at the end of this year. 2) I wonder if they would sign Saltalamacchia and then make Pinto available in a trade for young pitching? For whatever reason, the Twins have never seemed to be very high on Pinto. They could view now as a "sell high" opportunity. They might be right and it's interesting to think about just what kind of return they could get for him. With catcher Brian McCann being signed yesterday by the Yankees for $85 million over five years, Saltalamacchia is the best remaining catcher on the free agent market. In the Offseason Handbook, we estimated he would sign for 3 years and $24 million, and there was a lot of internal debate about that number. It'll be interesting to see if the Twins will be willing to pay what the market will bear. I'd love to see it, and not just because it isn't my money. To me, signing Saltalamacchia would represent a proactive instead of reactive move, giving the Twins some flexibility and time, as well as improving the offense. I'd still rather they go after pitching, but it's rare to nab a guy who is just 28 years old in free agency, especially one with Saltalamacchia's performance record. If this doesn't get in the way of adding another pitcher (and I don't think it does), it's a savvy move. Click here to view the article

Here's what you really need to know about this game: Jupiter, Florida, where the Marlins play, is a long three-plus hour bus trip from Fort Myers. The bus leaves at 7:30 in the morning. It gets back something like 8:00 that night. The Twins, like every other team, tries to protect their best (veteranish) players from this as best they can. (And in the Twins case, they had a split squad game yesterday, meaning that nearly every veteran also played yesterday.) There was even a question in the pregame press conference with manager Ron Gardenhire about whether it meant anything that a veteran (and a high-priced veteran, at that) like today's staring pitcher Phil Hughes, had to make this trip. Like whether the team was sending Phil Hughes a message by making him take that trip. Gardenhire - who does every road trip, including the split squad days, by the way - said that the Twins expect their players to be pretty businesslike. "They didn't have a choice," Gardenhire replied bluntly. "We try not to send veterans on long bus rides, but when it comes up your turn, and you're lining them up to start the season, sometimes you've just got to suck it up." Just so I'm clear, there is no indication that Hughes had any problem with this. He said after the game he came down the night before to prepare. Failure to Detonate The story of the game was supposed to be Byron Buxton's first start, but Buxton went 0 for 5. The only thing that he did to impress was almost beating out a routine grounder just because he's so crazy fast. But he was still out. That didn't stop the Buxton frenzy. Gardenhire was asked about Buxton several times before the game and again after the game. Assistant GM Rob Antony was asked about Buxton in a pregame press conference. Phil Hughes was asked about Buxton after Hughes' start. And Buxton had a throng of reporters waiting for him after he dressed. One question: "Were you safe on the grounder?" You know what this means? Nothing. Or at least not to Buxton and not to the Twins. All it means is that a lot of writers aren't going to get the compelling story they wanted to write and a lot of Twins fans aren't going to get the compelling story they wanted to read. I'm confident we'll all get through this rough spot. Lineup Notes I Sam Deduno pitched but not until the fifth inning. It was assumed Deduno would be legitimately competing with Scott Diamond and Vance Worley for the last spot in the rotation. But Diamond started a game already, Worley started a game already - and Deduno didn't pitch until after Phil Hughes and Ryan Pressly? Really? For what it's worth, when I asked Gardenhire before the game if everything in Deduno's shoulder was OK, Gardenhire replied "Everything's been good. No problems whatsover." After the game, when we asked for an evaluation of Deduno's performance, Gardenhire restated their goals. "We just want to make sure he's healthy, get him through his innings, and as we go, we'll stretch him out and see where we go from there. Right now, it's all about the health part and get through his innings." In my mind, I don't think the Twins know if Deduno is healthy, or at least if he can get healthy. If that sounds as if Deduno is going to have trouble grabbing that fifth spot, I think you're right. Lineup Notes II Eduardo Escobar started at third base today. That is likely because of the long trip, but it's worth noting that everyone seems confident that Escobar can play third base. (In fact, according to Gardenhire, the Twins thought that was his best spot when he was with the White Sox.) With a limited roster, an infield backup player is likely going to need to be able to play second base, shortstop and third base. Escobar can. Doug Bernier can. Today James Bereford showed that he can. But it's not clear yet that Jason Bartlett can. If we don't see him at the hot corner within the next couple of days, I have to think the backup infielder spot is Escobar's to lose. Barlett's hopes hang on the Twins decision whether to carry a 13th position player or 13th pitcher. A Bright Spot Chris Colabello got on base three times today, including two walks. That's his fifth walk in five (shortened) games this season. Colabello has made some mechanical adjustment, but after the game, he wanted to talk about being more comfortable and less anxious than he was last year. "It's more about just approaching your at-bats with a little more calm." Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Hughes_Phil_Kneeling_US_720.jpg Aaron and John talk about the Twins signing Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes for a combined $73 million, a possible A.J. Pierzynski reunion, what the rotation might look like in 2016, how to have a successful first date, rooting against Mike Pelfrey's return, recapping Thanksgiving, secondary stats versus ERA, ranking the best brunch options, mailbag questions from listeners, wearing cardigan sweaters, and crying at Stella's. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: All-Star-Flyover_US_720.jpg Aaron and John talk about the All-Star experience, the Twins making it clear they should be sellers at the trade deadline, what to do with Kurt Suzuki, Aaron's illnesses, John's dancing, paying to get rid of Ricky Nolasco, details on the August pub crawl, why Danny Santana is rushed but young pitchers aren't, ex-girlfriends in the wild, Josh Willingham falling apart, and dwindling television ratings. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click below: Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Perkins_Glenn_High5_US_600.jpg Contract extensions are usually popular with fan bases, which is not the norm for financial transactions. It’s easy to see why – all the ingredients are there. People love to emotionally project a popular and productive player to be popular and productive for years. An extension does that, provided you don’t think too hard about the financial side of it. That’s the actuarial department's job. All the ingredients are also certainly there for the contract extension Glen Perkins signed with the Twins. Perkins has been awesome since moving to the bullpen, including being named an All-Star last year. He’s a hometown guy and media and fan-friendly. As Twins Assistant GM Rob Antony said, “I think there's a premium value for a closer that's 31, that's done a pretty good job for us, that fits in very well in this clubhouse, and means a lot to this team.” With that background, why wouldn’t a deal get done? The more interesting question for both sides might why a deal did get done, considering Perkins was already under team control for the next three years at a bargain rate. Here are how the deals compare: Download attachment: Perkins_Deal.jpg Perkins The deal gives Perkins a raise over what he would make the next couple of years and guarantees another $14M in future earnings. It costs him a chance to hit the free agent market in 2017, when he might have made almost twice as much as he will get paid over the last two years. Of course, he would have been be 34 at that point. The security was worth the big payday. That’s why Perkins approached the Twins about the deal. There is also an interesting provision that gives a subtle nudge to the Twins to NOT trade him. If he is traded, that option year changes from a team option to a player option. That makes him not quite the tradeable asset that he would be otherwise. Twins The Twins take on the risk of a 31-year-old getting hurt and being on the hook for another $14M. But the savings they could reap if he stays healthy are considerable. You’ll recall that as Joe Nathan approached free agency, the Twins signed him to a four-year deal that paid him $11.25 million starting when he turned 34 through turning 36. (That didn’t turn out so well.) This five-year deal tops out at about half that much money and ends when Perkins is 35. It also keeps Perkins anchoring a bullpen in those years when the Twins believe they’ll return to being competitive. “We believe that he’s going to be part of turning this thing around,” said Antony. Sweet Spot It is somewhat unusual for a team that already has a good contract to risk an extension. It’s also unusual for a premier player to seek one out. Perhaps in this case, the hometown ties played a part in overcoming those traditional obstacles. Antony concluded, “We know that this contract, [Perkins] signed, because he wants to be in Minnesota. We signed because we want to keep him here.” Together they found a deal that the team, the players, the fans and even the actuarial department can support. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: 581193_10150676280433884_991898303_n.jpg Twins Daily is very excited to welcome Ticket King to our community today. Actually, Ticket King started being a part of our Twins Daily community a couple of weeks ago – you might recall that the owner Mike Nowakowski blogged about meeting Josh Roenicke at the Welcome Home Luncheon. Ticket King also prides itself on being part of the Twin Cities community. Their offices are located in downtown Minneapolis and St. Paul. They like to meet and talk with Minnesota sports fans. (Just stop by the Minneapolis office sometime and ask to Mike to show you around.) Ticket King’s attachment to that community philosophy is deep enough to run upstream of the online ticket boom. Unlike some of the monstrous ticket web sites, Ticket King focuses mostly on the Twin Cities ticket market, whether it be Wild, Vikings, Wolves, Twins or concerts. What’s more, they don’t just “broker” ticket sales. They own a good chunk of their inventory, so you can escape the fees other sites charge by dealing directly with the locally-based Ticket King. The value of community is one we relate to at Twins Daily. So we’re very pleased that Ticket King has agreed to sponsor several site takeovers (like you see today) throughout the Twins 2013 season. They’re also adding some much needed functionality to the site – a 2013 Minnesota Twins schedule. You can also expect some stories from them about the different fan experiences at Target Field. So please join me in welcoming Ticket King to the Twins Daily community. We hope that if you need Twins tickets, you’ll give them a chance to prove to you what they’ve proved to us – that they’re dedicated to providing Twins fans with the best possible experience for their money. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Gibson_Kyle_600-321.jpg On the best Minnesota Twins podcast, Aaron and John talk about the Twins' free fall, options for the No. 4 pick in the draft with Twins Daily's Jeremy Nygaard, a ton of roster changes including losing Joe Benson, sending down Oswaldo Arcia, not calling up Kyle Gibson, what happened to Justin Morneau's power, Chris Parmelee in center field, leveraging Glen Perkins, a WHOLE lot more about the draft and meeting listeners at the Apple Store. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Or, just click on the link below: Click here to view the article

Pearson's Salted Nut Rolls are available at Target Field, and to celebrate, Pearson's is offering a case of their iconic candy to one of Twins Daily's members! Download attachment: TwinsBar.jpg It's easy. You CLICK ON THIS CONTEST PAGE and fill out answers to the six Twins trivia questions. It's only available to Twins Daily members. On Monday the 16th, we'll find all members with ALL the answers right and select one at random. We'll contact the winner and Pearson's will send them a case of Salted Nut Rolls. (It's absolutely killing The Voice of Reason that I won't let her enter.) [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Pearson's is offering this because they're so excited that their King Size Salted Nut Roll is the first non-licorice candy to be sold by hawkers at Target Field. During the month of April, in-seat vendors (aka hawkers) will sell Salted Nut Rolls at home games. If successful during the April test, hawkers stadium-wide will sell the Pearson's King Size Salted Nut Roll for the entire 2012 season. The Pearson's Salted Nut Roll can be found at concessions areas throughout the concourse all year long as well. Enjoy, everyone! (And let me know if you want to share!) Click here to view the article

Sponsored by RubricLegal.com [/hr]Download attachment: Maeur_Joe_AllStar_US_Orig.jpg UPDATE: We had a winner. Please congratulate joemama who will be attending the game on September 3rd. Nice job. Now you have a reason to watch the All-Star Game. To celebrate Minnesota being the center of the baseball world this week, Twins Daily’s Official Law Firm, Rubric Legal (formerly Snyder Gislason Frasier) is giving away front row tickets to a Twins game to a reader that guesses this year’s All-Star Game MVP. Just leave your guess in the comments below and we’ll pick a winner at random from the correct guesses. You’ll get four front row tickets to a Twins game this year for one of dozens of available games. [/hr]Rubric has helped the Twins Daily community analyze some interesting and thorny issues for MLB, like challenges to MLB’s Territorial TV Rights and minor league labor practices. They can bring expertise in a wide range of legal issues to you, too. Check them out at RubricLegal.com. Click here to view the article

In the heat of the chase, it's easy to lose your head. Auctioneers know the trick is to just get people in the door. Once that happens, the investment, the competition, the excitement and above all the urgency, take care of the price all by themselves. Download attachment: Arroyo_Bronson_Face_US_648.jpg And free agency is an auction. And Twins fans are feeling the urgency. And so, apparently, are the Twins. In his latest story on the Twins offseason, Mike Berardino reports that the Twins have showed a willingness to at least consider offering a 3-year contract to 36-year-old right-hander Bronson Arroyo. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]If you’re an American League snob like me, you might remember Arroyo from his tumultuous years with the Red Sox through 2005 (or possibly from Bill Simmons' description of the “Bronson Arroyo face”). He left for the National League, specifically Cincinnati, and has averaged 210 innings with a 4.05 ERA in the eight years since. It ain’t because of his stuff. For the last five years, he's averaged just 5.3 K/9, which (cheap shot alert) undoubtedly is what makes him irresistible to the Twins. He succeeds by keeping the ball on the ground and indeed his ERA has been closely linked to how many home runs he gives up each year. That bodes well for playing in Target Field, which is far friendlier to pitchers than the Reds’ Great American Ballpark. It doesn’t bode as well for a return to the American League. Arroyo and his agent are fishing for a 3-year deal, and the team that offers it is likely to win his services, provided you define “win” as guaranteeing 36+ million dollars to a 37-year-old pitch-to-contact starter. Is that wise? Of course not – but free agency rarely is. That’s the thing that can be so repulsive about signing a free agent: by definition the winning team is overpaying. When 29 teams won’t pay the price the winning team is willing to pay, the odds are stacked against them from the start. So let’s ask another question – is Arroyo likely to be productive through his 39year old season? Historically, no. First, there is the type: low strikeout pitchers far too often end up like Carlos Silva, Joe Mays or more recently, Scott Diamond. When their stuff dips just a bit, or their control slips a little, or the ground balls turn to fly balls, or the fly balls turn to home runs, things can go south in a hurry. Strikeouts are a safety net they don't have. Second, there is just the issue of health. Pitchers get hurt, especially when they've been used a lot. 36-year-olds get hurt too. And 36-year-old pitchers who have been used a lot? You know the answer to that, don’t you Joe Nathan? Finally, looking at Arroyo's closest comparable pitchers from baseball-reference.com, you find a lot of guys whose careers ended right about now. His top 5 are John Burkett, Todd Stottlemyre, Tim Belcher, Esteban Loaiza and John Lieber. None of them had success past his age. Twins fans know numbers six and seven on that list: Kevin Tapani and Scott Erickson. Tap had a 4.49 ERA when he was 37 and then his career was over. Erickson pitched only 66 more innings over two years after he turned 37, and had a 6.35 ERA. But to be fair, all of these guys showed serious signs of decline well before this point, unlike Arroyo. Regardless, Arroyo is not a good bet to age well - but he hasn’t been a good bet to age well for five years running. And the Twins can certainly afford to overpay right now – but they might wish they had that money for a more reliable starter in 2016. Ultimately, I can’t believe Arroyo is so much of an outlier from historical precedence. I wouldn’t totally rule out the third year. Perhaps, like Berardino says of the Twins, I might give “indications they might be willing to go that far.” But I think we're getting caught up in the heat of the auction, and there are still lots of items on which to bid. I’d look long and hard at the other pitchers first, opting to pay that 2016 money up front to someone who is a little safer bet. Click here to view the article

Sponsored by Switch My Trip [/hr] Download attachment: Burton_Jared_600-321.jpg Sometimes it's an overlooked performance that is a game's BigSwitch. Last Tuesday night's back-and-forth win over the Padres contained splashier performances, but believe it or not, the player with the biggest impact wasTwins reliever Jared Burton. That's why he's this week's Big Switch. But since we're still above the preview line, let's talk about the splashy. The headlines and morning radio focused on Kurt Suzuki's inside-the-park home run. In case you missed it, Suzuki hit a home ruin n the eighth inning that barely cleared the wall in left field but bounced back into play. The outfielder thought it was a home run (and you can see him signaling so) but it wasn't ruled that way initially. To Suzuki's credit, he trucked around the bases at full speed making the point moot and scored anyway. Because he did, the play did not need to be reviewed, so Suzuki was credited with an inside-the-park home run instead of a standard home run, making it the first inside-the-park home run for the Twins since 2007 when it was done by another catcher: Joe Mauer. [/hr]The Twins are looking to switch things around this year. Every week, Metro Transit recognizes a Twins player who successfully switched the outcome of a game for the better. [/hr] But that run was ultimately not the deciding run. It was important. We've talked about FanGraphs.com's excellent game graphs that track a team's probability of winning a game based on thousands of game logs before. That hit by Suzuki halved the Padres chances of coming back, which is fitting because it doubled the Twins lead from 4-3 to 5-3. But had Burton not been around the half-inning before, there might not have been a lead to double, and FanGraph's charts show that, too. The Twins had grabbed a 4-3 lead the inning before on a sacrifice fly by Josmil Pinto. Brian Duensing started the bottom of the seventh inning, replacing Twins starting pitcher Kevin Correia, who was in line for the "Win." But Duensing immediately put that win - both for the team and Correia - in jeopardy. Jedd Gyorko led off with a single, Duensing walked Yonder Alonso, and the Padres simply had to adopt a "get-em-over, get-em-in" strategy to tie up the game. The FanGraph's play log shows the game slipping away, too. In fact, when Duensing was pulled for Burton, despite trailing, the Padres were statistically favored with a 52% chance to win. Or, more precisely, a home team with runners on first base and second base and no outs, trailing by one run in the bottom of the seventh, have historically won the game 52% of the time. But the tying run didn't score and, in fact, didn't even advance. After retiring Cameron Maybin on a fly ball to center field, Nick Hundley on a pop foul to third and Chris Denorfia on a ground ball, the Padres' chances to win that game were down to 22%. In getting those three crucial outs, Burton increased his team's chances of winning that game by an astounding 30%. No player on either team affected the game more. It was also another step on the road back towards dominance for Burton.He struggled a bit in spring training and his first two weeks of the regular season were a nightmare. After a four-run outing against Toronto, his ERA stood at 14.40. He had given up runs in three of his five appearances and was demoted out of the eighth inning setup role to work lower leverage innings. But the seventh inning on Tuesday was not a lower leverage inning and Burton responded. He mostly has responded ever since the early season issues. Over his last 15 outings he has posted a 1.88 ERA, given up just 10 hits and has struck out 10 batters. But first impressions last. Twins fans may be overlooking that Burton appears to have switched the direction of his season. Just as he switched the direction of Tuesday night's win. [/hr]Speaking things we might have overlooked, why drive yourself home after a Twins game when it means fighting traffic and paying for parking? Say 'Switch My Trip' for the next Twins game. Metro Transit can provide you and your whole family a train ride to the game. Planning your trip is as easy as clicking on this link. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Pinto_Josmil_Swinging_Betsy_720.jpg Aaron and John talk about th Twins' no-swing approach, Alex Meyer's new pitch, car problems, dumping Mike Pelfrey, waiver wire madness, Josmil Pinto's first 40 game, ugly rotation numbers, seeing each other out in the wild, Paul McCartney, and how not to party. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Forlani_Claire_600_321.jpg Aaron and John talk about trade rumors, last week's aftermath and "the older gentleman" not paying his bar tab, terrible facial hair, local media moves, which starting pitchers Twins fans should dream about, having a Joe Maddon fetish, Claire Forlani and effective advertising, Denard Span versus James Shields, targeting Braves and Rays, and where to hide the dead prostitutes before next week's episode. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Lake-Harriet-Kite-Festival-247x300.jpg Aaron and John talk about the often confusing arbitration process and what it means for Trevor Plouffe, apartment shopping and kite festivals, Paul Molitor embracing video and analytics, Metrodome memories and Russian difficulties, Delmon Young going to Baltimore, pretending to be a soccer fan, brunch as a way of life, mailbag questions from listeners, and supermanning beer pong tables. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] You can listen by clicking below, download us from: iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Click here to view the article

Two big pitching trades have been made this week and several more have been close. With all that activity, could it be that Terry Ryan has missed his chance to maximize his return on Francisco Liriano? I don’t think so, but I also doubt we’ll see a move soon.Download attachment: 3376166-397756-touching-stock-market-graph-on-a-touch-screen-device.jpg Still Lots Of Interest The Tigers acquired Anibal Sanchez on Monday and the Pirates traded for Wandy Rodriguez on Tuesday. Both are top notch pitchers that could be viewed as comparable (or better) than Liriano. Furthermore, yesterday Dan Gladden revealed that the Twins had long talks with the Pirates before they walked away and the Pirates worked out a deal with Houston for Rodriguez. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]It also appears that the Dodgers are in a standoff with the Cubs for Ryan Dempster, a standoff they’re likely to win since Dempster has already vetoed a trade to the Braves. That’s three “buyers” likely gone for Ryan. But it appears that there are still plenty left. Within the past month, the Red Sox, Angels, Rangers, Braves and Blue Jays have all been rumored to be interested in Liriano. Plus, the Orioles, Nationals, Mets, White Sox and Cardinals have all demonstrated they are interested in adding starting pitching. That is ten teams, albeit with varying level of interest. Still Lots Of Uncertainty But things are still moving slowly because nobody is sure exactly which pitchers are going to be available. Cole Hamels is out because he just signed an extension with Philadelphia. Matt Garza might be out, because “forearm pain” is often the first sign of an elbow ligament tear, so teams want to see him pitch again, and the Cubs say he might not. Rumors have been flying about the Marlins Josh Johnson, but the Marlins now say they would need to be blown away to trade him. On the other hand, Zach Greinke is almost certainly available. He’ll almost certainly be moved to teams before Liriano, because most GMs will try for Greinke first and turn to Liriano as the backup choice. It’s not clear if some other huge names like the Phillies Cliff Lee or the Rays James Shields are available because they aren’t “rental” players, so any trade would require major prospects. The buyers are going to want to explore all these options, looking for the best deal. The Waiting Game So it appears we’re going to need to wait a bit longer. Liriano hasn’t been consistent enough to make anyone overpay for him before others have signed. But it also appears that ultimately, there are going to be more teams looking for top-tier pitchers than there will be top-tier pitchers. If that stays true, it playing the waiting game is still the best hope for maximizing Liriano’s value. Click here to view the article

~ Sponsored by Ticket King ~ “And we'll never be Royals” - some singer on the radio Download attachment: LordeRoyals.jpg For the last decade, Lorde’s lyric would have been a comfort to Twins fans; as bad as things would ever get, at least the Twins were never going to be the Royals. Minnesota dominated the matchup for the decade, even going 21-15 over 2011 and 2012 when they were struggling with just about every other team. The worm finally turned last year and did so with a vengeance. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]The Royals' 15 wins in 19 games was their highest win total against any team by five full games. In fact, they were less than a .500 team against the rest of their schedule; they can thank the Twins for pushing them to 86 wins, their highest win total since Bo Jackson was roaming their outfield. Weather Download attachment: Weather.jpg We’ve got a good news/bad news situation for this weekend’s games. The bad news is that there are supposed to be “spotty” showers throughout the weekend, so be prepared. The good news is that is that the warm weather should last through at least Saturday and possibly Sunday – and then it’s going to get cold when those freaking Canadians come to town. (Yes, Canada, I’ve figured out your little game. Turn off the top secret Polar Vortex machine you have apparently developed. You can make it as cold as you like; we’re never going to embrace hockey as our national sport. I think we’ve made that abundantly clear. Give it up.) Pitching I’ll give you your pitching matchup options and my opinion. Do as you will: Download attachment: Shields_James-pitching_US_720.jpg Friday night you’ll get to see Kyle Gibson try to have a second excellent start. (Which is something he never did last year.) But he’ll face Bruce Chen, whose effective slop drives me and all Twins fans (and batters and coaches) insane. I don’t think I’m ready for that so early this year. On Sunday, Kevin Correia (who also tends to drive me insane) faces off against Jason Vargas. Last April when the Twins faced Vargas they absolutely destroyed him, knocking him out of the game after 3.1 innings. It was one of the more enjoyable games of a chilly homestand. So that might be fun to watch. But the game I like best is Saturday’s versus James Shields. Shields will be a free agent after this year and command huge money, so his time in KC could be near an end and thus his visits to Target Field will be less frequent. For Twins batters, that’s probably a good thing. Over his last three seasons, he averaged 235 innings per season and a 3.15 ERA. So far this year, it’s been more of the same: two starts, 13.1 innings and a 2.70 ERA. If you’re looking for a Twins win, this game might not be the best choice but I’ll opt for watching excellence. ~~~ Ticket King has all kinds of seats available for this matchup. I see a pair of tickets in the Champions Club for $291 apiece or you can sneak in with $9 tickets – there should be plenty of seating. Plus, if you use the promo code DAILYDOUBLE, you’ll be supporting Twins Daily and get 10% off. Whatever your needs, your local ticket supplier, Ticket King, can help. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: orange-crush-1.jpg Aaron and John talk about the Twins choosing Ricky Nolasco over Matt Garza, dreaming about Byron Buxton, Matt Guerrier's return, selling Andrew Albers to Korea, recapping the "Winter Meltdown" event, smoking after close, Hebrew school reunions, on-air interventions, Hammerheart's support, swapping wives, and Super Bowl parties. You can listen by clicking below, or download us from: iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Lew_Ford_600-321.jpg Aaron and John talk about the incredibly exciting postseason, the Twins' improved farm system, reveal what they're reading and listening to, give a quick tutorial on a bunch of sabrmetric stats and concepts, and note the many ex-Twins in the playoffs. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

All-Star Game Hometown Rules Rule #1: When The Game comes to town, you have a party. Rule #2: See Rule #1. Far be it from Twins Daily to break the rules. Today, July 14th, we're throwing a party at Mason's Barre and Restaurant prior to the Home Run Derby. From 4:30 to 6:30 we'll have a couple of kegs of beer reserved to offer Twins Daily readers to thank you for all your support. We'll be joined by readers and writers of FanGraphs.com and possibly a special guest or two. We'll also be joined by Pete Rukavina, a Twins Daily member who is personally sponsoring the bash just because he's awesome, so please say thank you to Pete if you see him. We aren't charging, there are no tickets, and you don't need to RSVP. Given previous events, I'd suggest getting there early if you want one of the free beers. But even if you can't -- the All-Star Game is in town. Let's have a party. Download attachment: image.jpg Click here to view the article

Sponsored by Ticket King [/hr]Download attachment: Tanaka_Mashiro_Waving_US_720.jpg Given that the Twins’ season is balancing on the edge of a precipice, a showdown with the Yankees would usually be the last thing Minnesotans would want to see. But these are not your big brother’s Yankees; they lost a series to the Twins a month ago in Yankee Stadium. Add to that a long weekend, a retiring legend, an exciting new pitcher and (at least initially) gorgeous weather and you have a lot of reasons to grab some tickets to Target Field this weekend. Those Damn Yankees The Yankees have been stuck in the middle of the AL East since mid-May and their weaknesses start where we thought they would: an aging offense. Their lineup ranks 20th overall in runs scored, even behind the Twins. You’ll still recognize a lot of the names: Derek Jeter, Jacoby Ellsbury, Ichiro Suzuki, Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira – but they’re not the same guys you remember. The second highest OPS on the team belongs to leadoff hitter Brett Gardner. Teixera leads the club with an 810 OPS, which is lower than that of Josh Willingham (856) or even Yankees castoff Eduardo Nunez (841). The starting pitching isn’t a whole lot better, also ranking 20th overall in the majors in ERA. And even that is heavily skewed by the outstanding work of…well….let’s talk about him in a second. The rotation lost CC Sabathia to a degenerative knee condition and he won’t return until late July. Hideki Kuroda has been fairly average, and the Twins will try to prove that on Sunday. The back-end of the rotation is covered by household names like Phelps, Whitley and Nuno. THIS is the Ticket But the rotation has a hell of an anchor, making Thursday night’s ticket the prize of the weekend. Mashiro Tanaka will make his first appearance at Target Field. For both legitimate and illegitimate reasons, the Japanese rookie is in a strong position to win the AL Cy Young Award. The less legitimate reasons: he has eleven wins already and pitches in New York City. But he’s more than worthy. He enters this series with a 2.10 ERA. He has 127 strikeouts versus just 18 walks. And he’ll be among the league leaders in innings pitched after this, his seventeenth start. Not every guy that costs the Yankees $180 million is worth the cash, but Tanaka has matched and exceeded expectations. Plus, he’s facing Phil Hughes, the discarded Yankees prospect who has rejuvenated his career with the Twins. The last time he faced the Yankees he threw eight innings, giving up two runs and clinched the series winner in Yankee Stadium. You have my permission to get a little giddy about this game. Time To Say Goodbye The Yankees, Major League Baseball and the media have been keeping this very hush-hush, but Derek Jeter is going to retire after this year. So this will be your last chance to boo him. Make it count. MOR. The weather on Thursday night and Friday afternoon is going to be gorgeous. Saturday and Sunday look a little more cloudy, with a small chance of rain, so you might want to aim for the sunnier and warmer third base line for those games. Or, if you’re a complete pessimist, the covered seats in left field. Plus, the Twins are running holiday weekend promotions. Did you know on Thursdays the Twins offer $2 drafts from 5:30-6:30 to sip while watching batting practice? On Friday the Twins are giving away Lou Gehrig bobblehead dolls. You read that right – the Twins are giving away a Yankee bobblehead. They’re celebrating the 75th anniversary of Gehrig’s Farewell Speech. I offer this news without comment. The Twins regain a portion of their sanity on Saturday, offering Tom Brunansky bobbleheads to the first 10,000 fans. I should also mention that if you’re dating someone who has a Derek Jeter fetish, the Twins will be honoring him before this game. If that seems like an awful lot of celebration of a team that Minnesotans love to hate – and that the Twins need to beat – well, I agree with you. There is only one way to combat that, of course: show up. [/hr]Even on a weekend like this, Ticket King has you covered. I count 140 Twins tickets available for Thursday night, including one block of 14 seats if you and a group want to have a happy hour to kick off the weekend and watch an awesome pitching matchup. Friday’s 4th of July afternoon game is perfect for the kids. Wow – there are Champion Club seats available for the Saturday afternoon game when they honor Jeter. Sunday looks like it might have the most availability. All are an even better deal if you use the promo code DAILYDOUBLE, which will get you 10% off and supports Twins Daily. Whatever your needs, your local ticket supplier, Ticket King, can help. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: typewriter.jpg Twins Daily has it’s own “farm system” of independent writers. You can check out on our Blog page. Here are a couple of recent posts you might find interesting: Thrylos takes a look at the Twins roster and finds quite a few spots up for grabls this spring. MNFanForLife takes a look at Eddie Rosario’s combined regular season and winter stats and likes what he sees. Brad Swanson takes a look at the Twins with the most to prove. Stop by and let them know what you think. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Santana_Johan_Mets_US_600.jpg Aaron and John talk about the Twins' interest in Johan Santana, Alex Meyer's impressive Arizona Fall League, the $4,700 exploding tire, injuries to Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, redoing or undoing Denard Span and Ben Revere, beer-soaked iPads, tailgating at Gophers games, weddings in Dallas, mailbag questions from listeners, and going to see Dave Chappelle. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article