John Bonnes

Aaron and John visit a rainy Nordeast Big River Brew Fest and talk about why the Twins let David Ortiz go, finishing the Justin Morneau trade with Duke Welker, East Side Neighborhood Services, Metrodome-like attendance figures, Joe Nathan and Matt Capps going opposite directions, John Sickels Top 20 Twins' prospects, "Singles Night" at Xcel Center, podcast Hall of Famers, the White Sox spending $68 million on a Cuban import, and mailbag questions from listeners. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

[video=youtube_share;RoQCNo2EVX4] [/media]TwinsDaily Proudly Presents… The 2014 Officially Unauthorized Minnesota Twins Offseason Video Tutorial Today’s Lesson: Just How Much Pitching Can The Minnesota Twins Afford? Summer is giving way to winter and the baseball season is turning to the baseball offseason, when Major League teams rain money on free agents. The Twins will enter the offseason with a payroll of $59 million dollars, which means they should have as much as $25-$30 million to spend this offseason. There is plenty they could buy with that money. , especially when one considers the Twins finished the regular season with the WORST starting pitching rotation in MLB. So what can $25-30M buy on the starting pitching free agent market? Let’s look at last year’s free agents and find out. Last year, the market had a clear ace – Cy Young Award winner Zach Greinke. The closest this year’s market has to an ace might be Masahiro Tanaka, an ace from Japan that might be joining the MLB ranks. Greinke was signed by the Dodgers for almost $25 million per year for 6 years, so $25 million gets approximately ONE Ace. Five other pitchers signed deals that topped $10 million per year. The number of guaranteed years in those contracts varied in length, basically being inversely proportional to the pitchers age, unless you had Dan Haren’s hip. Only two of those pitchers had excellent years - though they all pitched plenty of innings. After that group there was a significant drop to several different groups of pitchers. For instance, there were the end of the rotation innings eaters who made $5-7 million per year. Three guys filled that role, including Kevin Correia who was the only one of the three that had anything resembling a good year and actually performed better than some of the $10 million guys. Because pitching was so expensive, many GMs tried to catch lighting in a bottle by signing players with injury concerns. Unfortunately, most of them pitched like – surprise – they were hurt. Five players signed deals between 4 and 8 million dollars, most for just one year, (including the Twins signing Mike Pelfrey). Of the five, only Cubs pickup Scott Feldman was less than terrible. General Managers had significantly better luck gambling on healthier guys with upside but question marks. Four such pitchers signed for less than $5 million. Dice-K flamed out, but Carlos Villanueva was serviceable in dual roles. The third, Bartolo Colon, led his Athletics to the postseason. So did the fourth. So last year, $25-30 million would have bought an ace, two starting pitchers who were among the best in the market, or nearly a whole rotation of more questionable guys. What will it buy this year? Well, for specific names and estimated contracts, you might want to invest in the 2013 Offseason GM Handbook, which is on sale for just $4.95. And of course, check out Twins Daily’s stories and forums for all the Twins offseason analysis.

Aaron and John podcast from the MN Blogger Conference and review their preseason over/under picks, talk about Twins payroll, discuss Justin Morneau's chances of returning, miss October baseball games and finally have special guest David Brauer join to talk about where blogging and journalism are going, for good or bad. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

Aaron and John take the podcast to 612 Brew's inaugural Octoberfest and talk about Ron Gardenhire's two-year contract extension, why no one knows anything about managers, Rick Anderson and the entire coaching staff staying on one-year deals, the first batch of 40-man roster cuts, getting together to watch Francisco Liriano and Justin Morneau, big fish and survival of the fittest, and starting your own craft brewing business. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

Comments have been pretty negative about yesterday’s decision to grant Ron Gardenhire a two-year extension and retain the Minnesota Twins coaching staff. And that’s not just on the Twins Daily forums; check out stories on the Minnesota Twins Official site for some real vitriol. Twins fans are upset. A lot of those comments are rhetoric, which has the advantages of being powerful, entertaining and fairly obvious after a third year of futility and an especially brutal September. But rhetoric is also often logically dubious. One side will claim Gardenhire should be fired for three straight 96+ loss seasons. The other claims he should be retained for six division titles. Both are results which managers probably influence, but so do a lot of factors, like talent. Beyond the rhetoric, there are plenty of concerns regarding Gardenhire’s performance history. One of the biggest is whether a rebuilding organization can entrust a youth movement to Gardenhire and his coaching staff. Certainly, that was a problem this year. Aaron Hicks was a disaster. Chris Parmelee wasn’t much better. Trevor Plouffe stagnated offensively and maybe even regressed defensively. Only Brian Dozier – a player Gardy publicly lobbied to be promoted – ended up overachieving. That raises the question of how many past players really grew under Gardy’s tutelage. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, certainly, but they were always viewed as “can’t miss” stars. Jason Kubel probably didn’t have quite the career we expected, but there was the injury. Michael Cuddyer certainly developed, but it took him several years to shake the “underachieving” label. And the generation before developed mostly under Tom Kelly, breaking through largely in 2001 before Gardenhire took over. Similarly, there are questions about the development of the pitching staff under pitching coach (and former Gardenhire minor league roommate) Rick Anderson. Both Gardenhire and Anderson have been widely lauded for the development and handling of their bullpens, and this year’s group was no exception. But the organization is floundering largely because its rotation is among the worst in major league baseball and has been for three straight years. Again, questions arise about how successful this coaching staff has been in developing starters. Brad Radke carried a heavy load for several years, but he came up under Kelly. Johan Santana shined, but the turning point in his career is universally acknowledged to be when he perfected a changeup taught to him by AAA pitching coach (and current Twins bullpen coach) Bobby Cuellar. Kyle Lohse improved after leaving. More recently, Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey both were serviceable for a time, but never took the final step to be consistently excellent. Nick Blackburn followed the path of Carlos Silva, looking like a true success story but regressing back to a dismal finish. Finally, Francisco Liriano is starting tonight in the Wild Card game, resembling the pitcher we were waiting for him to be – the year after he left the Twins. It seems odd to ask whether a coaching staff that had a decade of success can develop young players, because a decade of success almost demands that they be able to do so. But looking at past examples, and especially looking at recent failures, the question is there. At least from the outside. It must not be for Terry Ryan. Because yesterday’s decision essentially entrusts Gardenhire to oversee the final developmental steps of a farm system widely viewed as one of the best in baseball. Beyond all the rhetoric about wins and losses, that is what yesterday was about. And perhaps that is why so many are upset.

Terry Ryan has promised a quick decision on Minnesota Twins manager Ron Gardenhire, and presumably the rest of the coaching staff, very soon after the season ended. Update, 11:02 AM: This morning, Ken Rosenthal tweeted that the Twins will retain Gardenhire and it is believed to be a 2-year deal. Update 11:36: Mike Berardino tweets that the entire coaching staff will be retained so Rick Anderson will be back too. The Twins have also scheduled a 2:30PM press conference. Gardenhire’s Major League playing career was entirely as a New York Met. He played shorstop there for five seasons, finishing with 710 AB and a .232 batting average. In 1986 he was traded to the Twins where he played one year in AAA before joining the Twins as a manager of their class A team in 1988. He managed two additional years in the minors before joining the Twins as a third base coach in 1991. He took over as Twins manager in 2002, following the retirement of Tom Kelly. Gardenhire led the Twins to their first playoff appearance since 1991 and a trip to the American League Championship Series. He was recognized for his work with a 3rd place finish for the American League Manger of the Year award. The rest of the decade held more of the same. Gardenhire’s teams made the playoffs five more times between 2003 and 2010 and missed one other in 2008 because of a "Game 163" loss. During that stretch, Gardenhire was recognized six times with Manager Of The Year votes, finishing second five times and winning the award in 2010. But he never led the team to another playoff series victory, compiling a 2-15 record in those five other appearances. And after a decade of success, the Twins have floundered since 2011; they lost 90+ games for their 3rd consecutive year in 2013. Last offseason, Gardenhire was not offered a contract extension through the 2014 season, so the Twins had no financial commitment beyond Sunday’s final regular season game. Rick Anderson broke into the majors with the Mets in 1986, serving both as a starter and a reliever, posting a 2.72 ERA over 15 games, but recoding just 3.8 K/9 IP. He was traded to the Royals as part of a package for David Cone prior to the 1987 season and pitched parts of two years with Kansas City. By 1989, he had joined Gardenhire in the Twins organization, serving as a pitching coach at the rookie league level. He gradually moved his way up through the Twins minor league system, including seven years in the Twins AAA affiliate. His success stories in the minors include teaching Brad Radke a different changeup grip that helped lead to his success. When Ron Gardenhire was named Twins manager, Anderson was named the pitching coach. But the relationship between Gardenhire and Anderson went back much further than 2002. They were roommates in the Mets minor leagues. In fact, Gardenhire claims he has an article from 1984 where Gardenhire said “Someday I’m going to be managing in the major leagues and Rick Anderson is going to be my pitching coach.” The Twins pitching staff experienced a great deal of success in the first few years under Anderson. In 2001, the Twins had a 4.51 ERA, 7th in the AL. It shrunk to 4.12, good for 6th in the AL in his first year. And in 2004 it was down to 4.03, lowest in the American League. That success continued through 2007. Anderson’s pitching staffs were characterized by their control. The Twins had the lowest walk total in the American League each year from 2004 through 2010, with the exception of 2007 – when they were second. It wasn’t until 2011, when the team lost 99 games, that they dropped out of the top three in that category under Anderson. But the Twins pitching has floundered in recent years, finishing 29th, 28th and 29th in ERA over the last three years. And while the staff has remained above average in limiting walks, they also been near the bottom of the league in strikeouts, including being the only MLB team with less than 1000 strikeouts this year. If the Gardenhire-Anderson era had ended this week, it will still be one of the most successful eras of the organization. Over 12 years, they collected 998 regular season wins and a .513 winning percentage. They also celebrated winning a division crown six times, a tally that no other Twins team of any era can match.

Aaron and John take their Minnesota Twins podcast to Target Field for the final series of the season and talk about Ron Gardenhire's job status, Terry Ryan's aversion to spending money, Joe Mauer being shut down, Josmil Pinto's impressive September, Jumbotron proposals and the Kiss Cam, going back to journalism school, Jack Moore's triumphant return, 1981 Twins World Series tickets, mailbag questions from listeners, and singing Al Green songs. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

Aaron and John take the podcast to the New Bohemia Octoberfest and talk about last week's Grand Drunk Railroad experience, Glen Perkins buying beers from the bullpen, who the Twins should purge from the 40-man roster, Joe Mauer's ongoing absence, Aaron Hicks not getting a September call-up, why everyone should use Ticket King, when and where baseball started, mailbag questions from listeners, and being hassled by the cops. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

Aaron and John are joined at stops along the Grand Drunk Railroad by special guests David Brauer of MinnPost, Jack Moore of Sports on Earth, and Kate Agnew of Girls in Tech to talk about the Twins' season ticket holder survey, hanging onto Josh Willingham, maximizing your investment in tickets, moving to Minnesota from Wisconsin, the value of pitch-framing, fitting the lineup pieces together for 2015, the Brewers' closing window, and fighting for "official couple" status. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

Aaron and John take the podcast to Summit Brewing's "Backyard Bash" and talk about the status of Joe Mauer's concussion, position switching Hall of Fame credentials, Josmil Pinto's hot start for the Minnesota Twins, top prospects going to the Arizona Fall League, a new "official couple of the podcast" contender, Trevor Plouffe's ticking clock, the minor league affiliates' playoff runs, mailbag questions from listeners, and sweating to death. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

~ sponsored by Ticket King ~ There are those who rejoice at the end of a dismal baseball season. I’m not one of them. September provides some of the nicest weather Minnesota can dish out, a last hurrah before we face a six month frigid baseball vacuum. So grab a seat while you still can. We’ll help out by getting you close to some possible September callups who are looking to make a last good impression, while the weather is warm and the grass is still green.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Frontier Field (in Rochester, NY) The Twins AAA affiliate had an exciting year. After starting the season 2-12, the Rochester Red Wings charged back, gaining the inside track on the Wild Card by mid August. But they lost six in a row, leaving them to chase the Tigers’ AAA affiliate, the Norfolk Tides. But the Red Wings won their last three games of the year and when Norfolk stumbled in extra-innings on the last day, the Red Wings were celebrating a return to the International League postseason. They’re facing the Pawtucket Red Sox this week in the playoffs. What this means is that most of the Twins’ September callups have been delayed. The Twins (justifiably) feel that the kids will get a good experience in the IL playoffs, and it wouldn’t be fair to the rest of the team to pull a half dozen of their best players. So what you’re seeing below are still guesses, even though we’re nearly a week into September. It could be days or even as long as two more weeks before you get to see them at Target Field. Section 5, 12, 109, 119 (Scott Diamond & Cole De Vries) Last year was a dream season for these two. When the Twins badly needed starting pitching, Diamond (3.54 ERA) and De Vries (4.11 ERA) stepped forward to help stabilize the rotation. Alternately, this year has been a nightmare. De Vries has spent the whole year in the minors and been plagued with arm injuries; first it was his forearm and then his elbow. He recently returned to the Rochester rotation and threw seven scoreless innings, so there is hope that he’s finally recovered. If you’ve watched the Twins this year, you’ve seen Diamond. In fact, maybe you think you’ve seen too much of Diamond and his 5.52 ERA. But he’s sparkled like his namesake since being demoted to Rochester with a 2.41 ERA and five quality starts in six outings. Perhaps he’s found his way out of his sophomore slump. Section 8 and 9 (Josmil Pinto) Here’s a name you won’t have to wait for as he was called up a day before September, when Justin Morneau was traded to Pittsburgh. With seven hits in his first 10 at-bats, most fans have figured out what Pinto’s minor league track record shows – this guy can hit. In limited time (19 games) at AAA he hit .314 with a 819 OPS. In AA, he hit .307. In High A, .282. The question that has dogged him is just how good he is defensively. You’ll want to pony up for those seats behind the plate to see how he’s framing pitches and get a sense from the pitcher just how much he likes throwing to him. Pinto has already taken a couple steps forward this year. This is his chance to show he can take the last one. Section 114, 110 or 129 (Eduardo Escobar) Escobar made an immediate impression in April, hitting .378 with power as a reserve. Then came May, where he had four hits in 47 at-bats. By the time he was sent down in July, his batting average had slumped to .214. But in case you haven’t been paying attention, that’s not bad for a Twins infielder. Pedro Florimon’s batting average has slipped all year and currently sits at just .225. And at third base, Trevor Plouffe is only hitting .243, though he seems to have found a bit of a groove lately. Meanwhile, Escobar looks like a different guy in AAA-Rochester. His overall batting average - .307 - is impressive enough. But maybe even more encouraging is that he’s walking a lot more, almost twice as much as in previous AAA stints. Add them up and he has a .380 on-base percentage over 43 games for the Red Wings. So take your pick – get a seat close to home plate so you can see if hit batting eye has improved, or sit further away and check out his range at shortstop. Hopefully, you’ll see a different guy than you did in May. Section 236 (Michael Tonkin) Tonkin has lately rocketed through the Twins minor league system. He started 2012 at Low A, so he’s progressed four levels in two years. He’s been up with the Twins for a couple of cups of coffee, but most of his year has been spent in Rochester. He’s been dominant, but since the middle of August, he’s been much more hittable, giving up 11 hits and 8 runs in just five innings. Is he tiring? You’ll want to look him over in the bullpen to judge for yourself. Last Chance For some of these guys, September feels like a chance at redemption and for some of them, it represents the last step towards a dream. For seventeen more games, you can get a front row seat for that drama. In fact, just like for some of these players, this could be your last chance.

Aaron and John say goodbye to KFAN by broadcasting live from the Minnesota State Fair and topics included the Twins trading Justin Morneau to the Pirates for Alex Presley and (maybe) Duke Welker, not trading Josh Willingham to the Orioles, Josmil Pinto's call-up and future role, the level of optimism surrounding Brian Dozier, rebuilding versus scorching the earth, and how not to freak out over technical difficulties. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

I expected my head and heart would battle about trading Justin Morneau. But I didn't think that my heart would focus more on the future than the past. I expected my heart to focus on Morneau's glorious history with the Twins. If Morneau never plays again for the them (and I'm fairly sure he won't in the near future), he'll still rank fifth all-time in RBI, fourth all-time in slugging percentage and third all-time in home runs, as well as being one of just five Twins to have won an American League Most Valuable Player award. Despite having his career impacted by a concussion problem that cost him at least a year-and-a-half of his prime, he's a sure-fire inductee to the Twins Hall of Fame. But in Major League Baseball, a player is more than just his performance on the field. He is also attached to a contract and that contract affects how desirable that player is. In Morneau's case, he was attached to a contract that paid him $14M this year, or approximately $2.3M per month, which is an amount that far exceeded his production for most of the year. And that contract became at least as important as his performance for the last couple of months. For instance, two weeks ago Justin Morneau passed through waivers without being claimed by any team. Waivers is process by which a player is offered to each team, and if any team wants him, they can "claim" him. If they claimed Morneau, they risked the Twins just giving them Morneau and his contract, without any compensation. But nobody claimed Morneau. The risk of being stuck with Morneau's contract outweighed the value they expected to gain on the field, even for those teams chasing an postseason spot. In that light, my head is telling me that yesterday's trade is a victory for the Twins. They took a player who two weeks ago was passed over by the Pirates and turned him into an outfielder who is roughly equivalent to Clete Thomas and a somewhat promising right-handed reliever. This is a better return than Twins fans could have expected if Pittsburgh was also going to be responsible for that contract. "...if Pittsburgh was also going to be responsible for that contract." That's the part my heart is having trouble getting past. I'm not someone who rants about the Pohlad's billions and wonder why it isn't spent on my baseball team. I believe in budgets. I believe that a fiscally responsible business is admirable, and in fact necessary for it to truly be healthy long-term. But payroll was cut by $20 million this year. And this week they traded away Jamey Carroll for cash. And now the Twins traded away Morneau for a couple of fairly fungible prospects - which allows them to pocket another $2.6M. And my heart can't help but wonder if the Twins were more willing to eat that money - money which they certainly had in their budget already - what they could have received in return. The Pirates have some very tempting pitchers in their farm system, even if you overlook the top three names that would have been untouchable for any organization. And it's not like the money wasn't important to the Pirates. They admitted as much: If it was important to the Pirates, it must have been at least as important to the Twins. But why? They can't spend more on the amateur draft or international signings. They're both capped. They haven't bought any big name international free agents. They had trouble buying free agents last offseason. They even admitted they had budgeted tens of millions of dollars that they didn't spend. As a fan, it feels like the money is more important than the product. It feels like my favorite team's GM is more proud of the cash he saves ownership than the team he puts on the field. And it feels like trading away Justin Morneau was more about saving a few million dollars than trying to build for the future. So while my heart misses Morneau and what he did, what is really troubling it is the future. Are Terry Ryan's priorities in the right place? Is he ever going to be able to use the revenues that Target Field has provided. Does he fully understand the limits he faces when trying to spend money to build the farm system? That's the battle that my heart is waging right now with my head. Despite my head's best efforts, my heart is winning.