John Bonnes

Aaron and John talk about the Twins signing Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes for a combined $73 million, a possible A.J. Pierzynski reunion, what the rotation might look like in 2016, how to have a successful first date, rooting against Mike Pelfrey's return, recapping Thanksgiving, secondary stats versus ERA, ranking the best brunch options, mailbag questions from listeners, wearing cardigan sweaters, and crying at Stella's. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

Similar to the consumption habits of most Americans during Thanksgiving, the Minnesota Twins are devouring free agent starting pitching at a frenzied pace. On Wednesday, it was Ricky Nolasco. On Saturday, the Star Tribune’s LaVelle Neal reported that they were in agreement with Phil Hughes on a three-year deal. The deal, which is contingent on a physical that Hughes must pass, is a three-year, $24 million contract. Hughes' numbers, both last year and over his career, are underwhelming. He was 4-14 last year with a 5.19 ERA and is 56-50 with a 4.54 ERA for his career. His strikeout rate is mediocre (7.6 K/9 for his career) and he has been hurt by home runs, especially lately (59 home runs in 337 IP over the last two years). But there are several caveats to those numbers that made Hughes attractive to other teams, including the Royals, Marlins and Mets. The Twins have been targeting him since at least July. You may also remember that Hughes was mentioned as part of the package the Twins requested from the Yankees during the Johan Santana trade talks. That's a pretty good place to start with why Hughes remains in favor despite recent struggles. In 2008, the Yankees weren’t willing to trade Hughes for Santana. Read that last sentence again. Actually, let me rewrite it, with the hidden words shown. In 2008 (eight years into their “drought” of not winning a championship), the Yankees (for whom dollars are nothing more than monopoly money) were not willing to trade (21-year-old pitching prospect) Hughes (with all of 72 innings of major league experience) for Santana (who had finished in the top five of Cy Young voting for four consecutive years). That speaks to exactly how highly Hughes was thought of. And it’s not like the Yankees had too much pitching. Their starting rotation was mediocre (16th in ERA in MLB) and their winningest pitcher was Chien-Ming Wang. Santana was exactly the guy they needed, and all they needed to do was swap some prospect for him and pay him, just like the Mets did. But they wouldn’t part with Hughes. Hughes was one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, and was projected to become the new ace of the Yankees staff as early as 2008, starting to fill in for the aging arms of Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens, all of whom were over 35. But a fractured rib derailed 2008 and raised questions about his durability, which we’ll get to later. Part way through 2009 he was moved to the Yankees' bullpen, where he was outstanding, helping the Yankees win their only World Series title of the millennium. He returned to the rotation in 2010, where it became apparent he was a poor fit for Yankee Stadium. Hughes is an extreme fly ball pitcher, and right-handed, which makes Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch his bane. His career ERA pitching in the two Yankees Stadiums is 4.96, versus 4.10 on the road. The difference? He’s given up more than twice as many home runs at home. The hope is that escaping from New York, whether it be the ballpark, the media or the expectations, will allow Hughes to become the pitcher everyone expected five years ago. That hope might be even more realized if his home park is Target Field. Because he was so young when promoted by the Yankees, he will be only 27 years old through the first half of the 2014 season. He’s entering his prime. From a raw stuff standpoint, he’s solid (7.5 K/9 and 92.4 mph fastball last year), has good control (2.6 BB/9) and isn’t afraid to throws strikes (66.7% of first-pitch strikes over the last four years). The biggest concern is his durability. He’s battled some nagging back and shoulder issues, but has made 61 starts over the last two years, throwing 337 innings. Hughes represents a calculated risk/reward move for the Twins. If the move away from NYC works, he has the potential to be a solid #2 starter for the next few years at a relative bargain price. And then he can hit the free agent market as a 30-year-old for a big pay day. If not, the Twins are overpaying a back-of-the-rotation pitcher, an asset of which they already have a glut. There are big numbers on both sides of the ratio, but the Twins can afford the risk and desperately need the reward. It also means the Twins are likely done adding pitching. At least three spots in the rotation are now spoken for by free agents signed the last two years: Ricky Nolasco, Kevin Correia and Hughes. It seems likely Samuel Deduno, who posted a 3.83 ERA last year before being sidelined with a shoulder problem, will also have a spot if he shows he’s healthy. That leaves a last spot for several younger pitchers with lesser track records, like Scott Diamond, Vance Worley, Kyle Gibson and Andrew Albers.

648 days ago, TwinsDaily was launched. Today seems an appropriate (and belated) time to thank so many of you who contribute to the site. So please join me in thanking our…. Moderators Our moderators have tracked 8276 threads since we launched less than two years ago, performing what I consider the most demanding and least rewarding job on the site. If you appreciate the forums as a place to discuss Twins news, please let them know, Without them, I assure you the forums would have disappeared months ago: glunn, snepp, Riverbrian, ashburyjohn, USAFChief, ChiTownTwinsFan Writers Of the 2182 stories that have appeared on TwinsDaily, over 1/3 were not written by Nick, Seth, Parker, Brock or I. Instead, they’ve been contributed by members of the community. This includes: Beat Writers Christopher Fee (@CJFee) Andrew Walter (@MNfanfromafar) Jim Crikket/SD Buhr (@JimCrikket) Minor League Reports and Draft Coverage Cody Christie (@NoDakTwinsFan) Jeremy Nygaard (@JeremyNygaard) Bloggers With At Least 10 Stories Brad Swanson (@bridman77) AJ Pettersen (@apettersen1) Thrylos (@thrylos98) PeanutsFromHeaven (@HeavenlyPeanuts) Mr. Horrorpants (@mrhorrorpants) Bwille (@BeeWill15) I could to on and on; there have been 62 other people who have published stories on Twins Daily. So please reach out to your favorites to show your appreciation, and use the links to follow them on Twitter. Editor A lot of those writers have been promoted because Kevin volunteers to comb through our blogs daily and help us identify stories that are worth promoting as well as edit them. Before that, our ability to promote stories was hit and miss, depending on my bandwidth that day. That’s not a small job – there have been 4333 blog entries since TwinsDaily was founded. If you appreciate all those extra voices, please let Kevin know. Community It’s a big step from reading to contributing, and we’re honored that so many of you have taken that risk. 3022 members have contributed 180,000 comments and posts. (Again, we keep our moderators pretty busy.) The level of discourse and knowledge keeps rising and more and more people are finding their voice every day. That’s what this site is all about. Thank you. Readers and Supporters Thank you to everyone for going beyond the default baseball coverage that’s easy to find and making a point of stopping by TwinsDaily and partaking in the 13 million pages that have been read in the last 21 months. We also really appreciate all of you who have let friends know, as our audience and contributors continue to grow year over year at a 40% clip. You're not alone and you're growing and growing. TwinsDaily is, to be candid, a dream come true for me. It is powered by the community that surrounds it and the volunteers that share their time, talent and energy to make it better. Thank you to everyone. Brock, Nick, Parker, Seth and I are grateful beyond words.

According to Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com, the Minnesota Twins have reached an agreement with free agent starting pitcher Ricky Nolasco. However, the Twins have not confirmed the deal. If true, the deal is likely to be the largest contract the Twins have ever given to a free agent. UPDATE - According to Yahoo's Jeff Passan, it is a four year, $49 million contract, with an option for the fifth year at $13 million (with a $1 million buyout). Nolasco will turn 31 years old in the next two weeks and has spend most of his career with the Marlins. He has posted peripheral numbers (such as a 7.4K/9 strikeout rate and a 2.1 BB/9 walk rate) that suggest he should be better than his 4.37 career ERA. In 2013, while pitching with the Marlins and the Dodgers, he recorded a 3.70 ERA over 199.1 innings between the two teams. His durability makes him one of the top names on the free agent starting pitching market, a step below Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana, but still in line for a average salary in excess of $10 million. The TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook estimated he would receive a 4-year deal of $52 million. That total would more than double the largest deal the Twins have ever made with a free agent, which was Josh Willingham’s 3-year, $21 million deal two years ago. Indeed, Nolasco represents a significant investment for any MLB team. His contract will likely be one of the top five given to any free agent starting pitcher this year. For those looking for someone that defies the highly publicized "pitch to contact" philosophy the Twins have embraced, Nolasco would be a step in the right direction. His strikeout rate, while being average for major league baseball, will be at the top of the Twins rotation. And among this group of free agent starters, he was third in overall strikeouts last year, only behind AJ Burnett and Ubaldo Jimenez. Finally, the likely length of the contract will mean Nolasco is a Twin until at least 2016 and possibly as long as 2018. He represents a financial commitment to anchor the next wave of Twins prospects to their next competitive team. It's not dissimilar to the 4-year, $36 million contract the Twins gave Brad Radke prior to the 2001 season. In fact, I'll be a little surprised if they don't reference that in relation to this signing when they're ready to talk about it.

Aaron and John talk about what the early free agent pitching signings mean for the Minnesota Twins, protecting prospects from the Rule 5 draft, puking in cabs, weird Duke Welker moves, finding the Jewish guy anywhere, the Tigers trading away Prince Fielder, getting married for $100,000, the best minor league organization in baseball, bachelor parties, Kris Johnson's upside, and the beauty of constructive criticism. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

There is no doubt that the internet changes how we consume sports, both positively and negatively. But does it also change the way we think? In the October 2013 issue of Wired, Clive Thompson examines the benefits of blogging and online posting for the writers, the readers and the world. Essentially, he argues that the deluge of information to which we are exposed everyday is changing how we think for the better. And it is a deluge:[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Thompson isn’t delusional about the quality of most of that content: Thompson’s first point is that focusing only on the content is a mistake. The more important effect is that people are writing, instead of just reading. And writing changes how we learn and think, usually for the better. Because when you write about something, especially publicly, you pay a lot more attention. He cites studies where students change the way they learn when they know they must present their knowledge to an audience, even if the audience is small. Thompson’s second point is that the impact is further multiplied when it is exposed to a community who can take the ideas and run with them. Leaps forward in knowledge often happen simultaneously and independently. This implies that those breakthroughs aren’t just due to the individuals. They’re building on previous work; the time is ripe for a breakthrough. That’s why there are scientific research journals and standards for citing each others work. They were attempts at a global network before there was the internet. The internet drives that collaboration to a whole new level. As an example, Thompson tells the story of Ory Okolloh, a blogger who wrote about Kenya during the 2007 upheaval over elections. Trying to track all the incidents was overwhelming. She openly asked for a way readers could submit them directly to Google maps. One of her readers took that request to a friend who was a developer and they quickly cobbled a tool. When Okolloh started her blog about Kenyan politics, she wasn’t trying to develop an indispensable worldwide aid tool. She just wanted to study Kenyan politics. But her interest turned into a blog which turned into community which turned into a network. Big things can happen, both internally and externally, when one graduates from reader to writer. ~~~ If you would like to contribute to some of the discussions on TwinsDaily, you might want to start by registering. You’ll then be able to post comments to our stories, or discuss the latest Twins rumors in our forums. You even get your own Twins blog. If you want to learn more about this topic, follow the link to the Wired story at the top of this article. You can also check out Clive Thompson’s new book Smarter Than You Think, a study on how technology is making us smarter. The Wired story is an excerpt from this book.

In his Sunday notes column, Boston Globe sportswriter Nick Cafardo mentioned that the Minnesota Twins continue to be pursuing catchers to replace Joe Mauer. And not just any catcher - the top remaining free agent catcher: As mentioned above, Saltalamacchia is a 28-year-old switch-hitting catcher who has hit 55 home run over the last three years with the Red Sox (which explains why this report is coming from a Boston newspaper). His OPS over those 3 years is .763, which would've been second on the Twins last year. Overall, those numbers about match what Ryan Doumit did back in 2012, which is very solid. This surprises me. I'm not surprised the Twins would try to sign a catcher, but it surprises me they would commit that kind of time and dollars to a catcher with Josmil Pinto, who was called up in September and thrived, on the verge of the major leagues. I guess I see a couple possibilities: 1) The Twins liked the "half-time" arrangement they had the last couple years with Ryan Doumit and Mauer, and would like to do the same with Pinto and Saltalamacchia. It would keep both well-rested and both can hit enough to be the designated hitter when they're not catching. I think you could say the same about AJ Pierzynski, to whom the Twins have also been linked. It would also allow Saltalamacchia and Doumit (if he can catch) to split time this year, giving Pinto some time in AAA, and then Pinto takes Doumit's spot on the roster when his contract ends at the end of this year. 2) I wonder if they would sign Saltalamacchia and then make Pinto available in a trade for young pitching? For whatever reason, the Twins have never seemed to be very high on Pinto. They could view now as a "sell high" opportunity. They might be right and it's interesting to think about just what kind of return they could get for him. With catcher Brian McCann being signed yesterday by the Yankees for $85 million over five years, Saltalamacchia is the best remaining catcher on the free agent market. In the Offseason Handbook, we estimated he would sign for 3 years and $24 million, and there was a lot of internal debate about that number. It'll be interesting to see if the Twins will be willing to pay what the market will bear. I'd love to see it, and not just because it isn't my money. To me, signing Saltalamacchia would represent a proactive instead of reactive move, giving the Twins some flexibility and time, as well as improving the offense. I'd still rather they go after pitching, but it's rare to nab a guy who is just 28 years old in free agency, especially one with Saltalamacchia's performance record. If this doesn't get in the way of adding another pitcher (and I don't think it does), it's a savvy move.

In the heat of the chase, it's easy to lose your head. Auctioneers know the trick is to just get people in the door. Once that happens, the investment, the competition, the excitement and above all the urgency, take care of the price all by themselves. And free agency is an auction. And Twins fans are feeling the urgency. And so, apparently, are the Twins. In his latest story on the Twins offseason, Mike Berardino reports that the Twins have showed a willingness to at least consider offering a 3-year contract to 36-year-old right-hander Bronson Arroyo. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]If you’re an American League snob like me, you might remember Arroyo from his tumultuous years with the Red Sox through 2005 (or possibly from Bill Simmons' description of the “Bronson Arroyo face”). He left for the National League, specifically Cincinnati, and has averaged 210 innings with a 4.05 ERA in the eight years since. It ain’t because of his stuff. For the last five years, he's averaged just 5.3 K/9, which (cheap shot alert) undoubtedly is what makes him irresistible to the Twins. He succeeds by keeping the ball on the ground and indeed his ERA has been closely linked to how many home runs he gives up each year. That bodes well for playing in Target Field, which is far friendlier to pitchers than the Reds’ Great American Ballpark. It doesn’t bode as well for a return to the American League. Arroyo and his agent are fishing for a 3-year deal, and the team that offers it is likely to win his services, provided you define “win” as guaranteeing 36+ million dollars to a 37-year-old pitch-to-contact starter. Is that wise? Of course not – but free agency rarely is. That’s the thing that can be so repulsive about signing a free agent: by definition the winning team is overpaying. When 29 teams won’t pay the price the winning team is willing to pay, the odds are stacked against them from the start. So let’s ask another question – is Arroyo likely to be productive through his 39year old season? Historically, no. First, there is the type: low strikeout pitchers far too often end up like Carlos Silva, Joe Mays or more recently, Scott Diamond. When their stuff dips just a bit, or their control slips a little, or the ground balls turn to fly balls, or the fly balls turn to home runs, things can go south in a hurry. Strikeouts are a safety net they don't have. Second, there is just the issue of health. Pitchers get hurt, especially when they've been used a lot. 36-year-olds get hurt too. And 36-year-old pitchers who have been used a lot? You know the answer to that, don’t you Joe Nathan? Finally, looking at Arroyo's closest comparable pitchers from baseball-reference.com, you find a lot of guys whose careers ended right about now. His top 5 are John Burkett, Todd Stottlemyre, Tim Belcher, Esteban Loaiza and John Lieber. None of them had success past his age. Twins fans know numbers six and seven on that list: Kevin Tapani and Scott Erickson. Tap had a 4.49 ERA when he was 37 and then his career was over. Erickson pitched only 66 more innings over two years after he turned 37, and had a 6.35 ERA. But to be fair, all of these guys showed serious signs of decline well before this point, unlike Arroyo. Regardless, Arroyo is not a good bet to age well - but he hasn’t been a good bet to age well for five years running. And the Twins can certainly afford to overpay right now – but they might wish they had that money for a more reliable starter in 2016. Ultimately, I can’t believe Arroyo is so much of an outlier from historical precedence. I wouldn’t totally rule out the third year. Perhaps, like Berardino says of the Twins, I might give “indications they might be willing to go that far.” But I think we're getting caught up in the heat of the auction, and there are still lots of items on which to bid. I’d look long and hard at the other pitchers first, opting to pay that 2016 money up front to someone who is a little safer bet.

Aaron and John talk about Joe Mauer moving from catcher to first base, being sponsored by another Twins podcast, the Twins' odds of actually signing Ricky Nolasco or another big-money free agent pitcher, recapping Dave Chappelle's marathon show at First Avenue, Jason Bartlett rejoining the Twins, Hebrew school reunions, Pedro Hernandez' 2014 ERA, Twitter beefs, John breaking his toe, and Aaron getting married. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

Aaron and John talk about the Twins' interest in Johan Santana, Alex Meyer's impressive Arizona Fall League, the $4,700 exploding tire, injuries to Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, redoing or undoing Denard Span and Ben Revere, beer-soaked iPads, tailgating at Gophers games, weddings in Dallas, mailbag questions from listeners, and going to see Dave Chappelle. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

Aaron and John talk about the free agent starters available to the Twins this offseason, why a Johan Santana reunion might make some sense, credit card roulette, Twitter for single people, trimming the 40-man roster further, Aaron's dream bar, reviewing the Jason Isbell concert, being in or out for Movember, how to ruin the rims on your car, mailbag, and the worst possible ending to a podcast ever. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

Aaron and John talk about Paul Molitor finally joining the Twins' coaching staff, Terry Ryan's interview with Twins Daily, missing the point on payroll, being invited to podcast at Cub Foods, starting a comedy club club, MLB vs. NFL television ratings, avoiding dancing at all costs, getting ready for Jason Isbell, swapping social lives, and how to deal with people not realizing you're joking with special guest Randball's Stu. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]