gunnarthor

So today was even worse than I expected. Sold a few things at a loss although we'll get some tax incentives for that, I believe, over the next few years. Russia and Saudi Arabia's oil war is really bad for my portfolio.

Virus and now an oil war - tomorrow is going to be another really bad day.

I think the 2012, 2016 and 2018 draft classes are going to be huge for us.

I know there are deals to be had but I think we just have to wait a bit before we're going to add more. We've lost a TON in these two weeks. I want to see where things settle before jumping back in, which might be a bit. I think certain sectors that are being crushed - banking and energy - will have some huge value buys in the long run. Tech (broadly) seems to be holding up relatively well - ROKU might be a bargain, I like that stock a lot (which probably means it falls to 90 soon) - but stocks like Apple and Square seem to be doing (more or less) ok. Outside of Pfizer, I don't have anything that could even broadly be considered "healthcare" but UNH and ABBV look promising and we've thought about both.

Thanks for sharing.

Down 700. I dunno. Hold and wait it out. But I also had that opinion in 08 when Wachovia was still in existence.

I assume you meant UNH? I probably won't sell any of my holdings but we're still in it for the long haul - I'm not expecting an early retirement. But I think the next few years will be iffy so it might be good to sell now and pocket your earnings.* * I'm not a financial adviser and know nothing.

This is how I feel after talking with some folks who do this a lot more than I do. Someone said he expected a 10% drop and that was BEFORE the virus. It was only a matter of time. My wife will probably make a purchase into her IRA (probably Disney) but the rest of our cash is probably going to the sideline for a year or so.

Looks like we're in for another really rough week. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/01/awaiting-us-stock-futures-open-at-6-pm-after-wall-streets-worst-week-since-2008.html

Yeah, really rough day again for us. We hold primarily in three areas - banks, oil, tech. Banks and oil are not doing well at all. WFC at 40? Cripes, that might be approaching a ten year low. Fortunately we have a bunch of cash hoarded up. We'll spend the weekend discussing things but probably will buy in to the market to some extent next week.

I watched like five minutes of the Twins on tv the other day and this huge dude comes to the plate and I wondered who that was. It was Blankenhorn. That guy is freaking huge now. I have no idea how much weight he's put on since we drafted him as a high school senior but he looks like a major leaguer now. Of course, I thought the same thing about Kohl Stewart but still, it's amazing how big these kids get a few years out of high school. I think Blankenhorn could be a guy that ends up crediting his success to Donaldson, esp if he has a power surge this year in AA or AAA.

So the last two days have hurt. My apologies, I bought stock a couple weeks ago. This is my doing. In related news, Bob Iger has stepped down from Disney - https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/25/media/bob-iger-bob-chapek-disney-ceo/index.html We own a bit of Disney and tend to like it. It was around 145 a while ago and fell to 128 today. I have no idea when the market will correct itself from the virus fears and there are other outside influences that are greatly going to affect the market in my opinion. So Disney might continue to fall or just stay flat but it's a nice stock in the longterm. We might buy more at this price, although it would be a small purchase at this point.

Actually it would probably be better if we divided up the moves - a lot of the transnational moves - trades, drafts, etc have left me a bit cool and that's probably more about Levine. Some other stuff - institutional matters, promoting Sean Johnson and Brad Steil, some coaching changes etc are probably more Falvey and I'm more confident in. I hated the fact that the FO threw up the flag at the deadline in 17. I hated that we kept Molly around an extra year. I don't like that we got taken in the Pressly trade or the sub-optimal returns on most of the trades we've done.

I don't think I've ever seen anything out of Rosario that would suggest he would do this.

*whispers back* But Ryan still gets blamed for the Smith drafts ... In all honesty, while 09 was an a great year it's also worth remembering Polanco and Kepler were not top international prospects. Both of their signing bonus were in the top 20 that year but not in the top 15. A reminder that the international signings are a real big crap shoot but also that those two worked their asses off to become solid ball players (no point in arguing over which development team should get credit).

I'd be happy if he could get some votes. It'll be tough. Cole, Giolito, Snell and Verlander, I don't think Berrios can crack that group and he and another group of pitchers is in the next tier. (He also was 8th in WAR if you ignore the innings limits and Clevenger essentially tied him). I think, as long as he remains healthy, the Twins can count on him to be a fairly consistent 30 start, 200+ inning, top 10 ERA+ pitcher until he reaches free agency. The consistency in his era and fip over the last three years is something. I'm not sure he has another level to get to but the level he's at is darn good.

Part of that is true - I even mentioned that it was too early to grade trades. But the Twins got Escobar in his age 23 season. He didn't play much during his age 24 season (I believe he had a somewhat serious injury as well) but in 2014 at age 25 he was our primary shortstop, starting more games at short than Nunez, Floriman and Santana combined. He was fifth on the team in PA. And he was already showing a strong bat - posting a 102 OPS+ and amassing 2.5 WAR. He followed that up with another 2 WAR season in 2015 although it is true that Molly in his first season as manager wanted Escobar in the utility role, giving Santana the start of the season to be his primary shortstop. Escobar still ended up starting more games at short. He started 2016 as our primary shortstop but that was his worst season as a Twin (posting a negative WAR) and Nunez pushed him out. He started 2017 behind Polanco as Molly's main utility guy again but took over thirdbase and put in another nearly 2 WAR season and again showed a solid bat. 2018 he was our opening day shortstop again and took over third with another Sano injury, and managed about a 3.5 WAR season split between us and Arizona. So I'm not sure it's fair to say the Twins held him back under Gardy and Molly - He was the opening day starter at short several times and his bat was strong from the get-go. He was certainly established as a quality MLer after one full season with us.

I agree. I was shocked in 2011. But I think the idea isn't so much whether this team is a 95 win or 85 win team - that's another thread - the player's seem to think they are a really good team. They seem confident maybe even cocky. It's fun.

I like this team a lot. The Mauer led teams seemed a lot more quiet. This team reminds me more of the early 2000 Twins with Hunter always talking. This core is a lot more upbeat. Hopefully they can get past the Yankees this year!

Dude, if you're going to be all rational and intelligent and stuff maybe you shouldn't post on TD!

I think all the lists are helpful and it's better to use them instead of relying on just one. Guys like Balazovic and Thorpe don't have Duran's ceiling but both could be solid ML starters in this era. That's a really good prospect. It's also worth remembering that a numarical list is going to have flaws and it's better to look at the players in tiers. Fangraphs and pipeline try to do this more with FV grades. I suspect if Zips and fangraphs both went to 200, their results would have a lot more overlap.

I'm not sure how you can square the Dozier return after the FO held him a year too long and got tiddly for him and rate that as a win. Has the FO made even one trade as good as Liriano for Escobar? Had the old front office ever waived the white flag at the trade deadline? From 2001 until 2017, the Ryan* system had 6 losing seasons (four in a row was the most at any one point but forgetting that the Twins were challenging for the playoffs in 2015 is pretty common malady. The total system failure of 16 is remembered but the total system failure of 18 is not) and won the central 6 times despite being handcuffed with ridiculous payroll constraints. The new FO inherited a extremely loaded and talented team and already had one 'total system failure' season. Last year the Twins had 18 players who managed 1 WAR or more, the new FO brought in 7 of those players. The inherited players were also much better - averaging nearly .5 WAR more per player. Players that the previous regime traded for that became good is legion. The reason the Twins could move from one core to another core and still be competitive was because our development team did a great job. We have yet to see anything from the new FO that they will be able to replicate that. The fact that after three years and the #1 pick in the draft and two deadline sales we only received 3 top 100 prospects should be alarming. * it's really not fair to call 08-11 part of the Ryan years but all the Ryan haters include it even though there were seismic changes made by Smith in the development staff that Ryan changed again in 2012.

Other than the Odo trade, we haven't traded for one player who amassed 1 WAR in a season for us. We've let several players walk who have managed that with their new teams which is a mark against the new FO. The fact that you're happy with Smeltzer probably suggests you're still drinking the cool-aid a bit much.

Actually, this is one of the things I disagree with the most. Falvine have been in charge for three drafts and two deadlines where we traded for prospects. Yet, coming into this season, we had as many top 100 prospects in our system from the old regime as we did from the new. (Trading Graterol changed that number). We were told that Enlow was the equivalent of a first round pick but he's struggled enough that our hopes on him should be lowered. Some of the trades are too early to judge but Celestino and Duran are the only two in our top 20 (apologies if I missed someone). Duran looks really promising but Celestino has over 650 PA in A ball and doesn't look great. And this FO has also been willing to lose draft picks at a pretty alarming rate. The Twins development group has always been good and I expect it to remain good but I'm not as convinced that our FO is as capable of identifying talent or at least some talent. Again, I'm way more confident of our hitters abilities than our pitching group.

I like this system but I don't love it like I loved the Sano/Buxton/Berrios group when they were coming up. The 2014 Twins system had 6 guys in pipeline's top 37. That year or the next, they had 11 in BP top 101. What's interesting is seeing that some of the highly regarded guys in those years - Meyer, Stewart, - failed but some other guys - Kepler, Rosario, Polanco - became pretty solid MLers. I think this year will tell us a lot about the pitchers in the system. Duran seems to me the only one who could end up as a #3 or better type but Balazovic could have a solid career, sorta like Scott Baker had. I'm way more confident in the bats. I think Lewis, Kiriloff, Rooker, Wallner, Larnich, Blankenhorn and Jeffers will all play multiple seasons in the majors.