gunnarthor
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Everything posted by gunnarthor
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Honestly, it's all speculation until the owners are forced to show the books. Forbes is making guesses, too. The Dodger divorce showed a little bit of how owners can move money around so it doesn't seem like the team is making profit while making a lot of it. -shrug- I'm of the opinion that the Twins could easily spend much more every year if they wanted to without hurting their bottom line but, like most teams, don't.
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Article: What Would It Take To Come Back?
gunnarthor replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
6) No slumps by Plouffe, Mauer, Willingham etc AND Morneau has to start producing at an respectable level. -
Appel would probably be the biggest loser in that situation but it could work out for him. He could be drafted by the Cubs #2 and get 6m or so and then haunt the Pirates for a decade. The Pirates will be losers too, if they don't sign Appel. They'll lose a year of development time of a potential top prospect and, as a team pretty reliant on its farm system to develop players, that would hurt. True, they'll get a reimbursement pick next year but that still doesn't make up for their loss this year. It just mitigates it some. That's why you don't see teams blowing top picks in one year, hoping to get a better pick in the next years draft. And, while I think it's a stupid idea, going over slot for Appel isn't crazy, depending on how the Pirates view him. I think most Twins would be ok with the idea of losing the rights to a Levi Michael type for a true ace. (esp since the Pirates have another first round supp pick to play with).
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I think this is a good list, more or less. Obviously Buxton's not as far as the rest but his upside and talent level is as good as any. I like the addition of Goodrum, too. He's a nice sleeper. Another HM might be Nate Roberts, I like him a lot but it's disappointing that he's at Beloit. Harrison is exciting.
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I think you can (and Boras probably is) make the argument that Appel now is worth more than what the Pirates should have expected with the 8th overall pick and next year's pick sitting at roughly #20 or worse if Pirates success continues. And I think the Pirates are likely to get an extra pick in next years draft after the first round due to their low revenue. Still, if I were the Pirates, I'd hope he signs for the 3.8 or so and starts his pro career early.
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Only if his body holds up after all those years. Mark Prior's signing bonus was almost as much as his entire career earnings. (That's why I'd take the 3.8m now rather than risk another year of college ball but there is some sense in trying to make as much as you can now instead of hoping for a major payoff 6-9 years from now).
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Six of the top seven players leading the EL in HR are between 25 and 28. 9 of the top 10 in OBP are between 25-28. MiLB has the league leaders but only qualified and without ages. Baseball reference has ages but a much more liberal cutoff. Still, it's something to go with.
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Well, those late 90s Cleveland teams were pretty close - Thome, Ramirez, Alomar, among others. That was an honest to god scary lineup.
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Klaw mentioned that (while it's still early) Appel would probably be #1 in next years draft, too. While I generally agree with the sentiment that he should take the 3.8m and start his career, it is conceivable that he could make more if he doesn't sign. I think the risk is too much and wouldn't do it but I'm not him. Cubs could take him in the top 3 for instance and pay him 5-6m pretty easily. And while he lacks some leverage, I don't think any team taking him next year would try to screw him over by giving him a lowball offer or not intending to sign him - esp since Boras is such an important agent in all of baseball. He could slide but I think teams will be better prepared for sliding players next year.
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Adding to this, at the break the 22 year old Hicks is (among qualified leaders) t-3rd in EL in triples (5) t-5th in runs (51) 6th in stolen bases (19) 7th in walks (41) 13th in OBP (.365) t-18th in HR (9) 23rd in total bases (123) 24th in slg (.446) And keep in mind that many of the players ahead of him are 4-6 years older.
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At this point, I'd be happy if Benson just became the weaker half of a RF platoon split.
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Maybe Ryan will focus in on some low A or rookie league players that have potential high upside. Sorta like how he had Liriano originally thrown into the AJ trade.
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Bird, you're the one that called Jack a "Pohlad hater" for suggesting the Twins spend money on free agents. No one else has bothered to insult anyone else. Highabove correctly pointed out the Pohlad's history of trying to contract the Twins, that's not a cheap shot. You're the only one in this thread that's making cheap shots and insulting other posters.
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The Pohlad's and the Cry for Them to Spend More Money
gunnarthor replied to powrwrap's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
We don't know and, if the owners have their way, never will know, where all avenues of revenue come from. Agents and the player's association are not allowed to look at owner's books. The Dodger fiasco showed how some owners are willing to hide/move money into different places to lower official revenue. Other owners have paid family members huge sums of money for "work" which came out of the teams budget. Sports Illustrated (I believe) noted that most people inside baseball believe that player salaries have not grown as fast as owner's revenues and that today player's might make less than 50% of baseball revenues, as opposed to a decade or so ago when they made something around 57%. Sorry I'm too lazy to look for that link. -
Well, what you're really arguing isn't that this team is as bad as last year's team but rather is off the pace of last year's team that ended up losing 99 games. Huge difference.
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Maybe, maybe not. I suspect, when you account for the tax loopholes, investment plans and write-offs they have, the Pohlads keep a larger percentage of their money then nearly anyone on this board. But Fanatic Jack didn't call the Pohlad's anything - he merely said "The only way to improve the team dramatically is to spend money like the Wild just did. It's really that simple but Pohlad wont do it" to which you claimed he was a Pohlad hater.
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1) Bird is asserting that the team went over in 2011. Claiming a 'cut' without taking that into context creates a fiction. 2) I think most observers have the twins farm system in the middle range and we had a solid draft and international signing. The teams top talent is mostly in A+ or lower, although Aaron Hicks is playing well in AA and Oswaldo Arcia recently joined him there. The team added the top talent in the last draft and was active in recent international signings, as well. Most farm systems are rated in total, not just at the AAA level, so Bird has a point. 3) The team is on pace to be 6 games better than last year. 4) Gibson and Hendriks, both have decent upside and should be on the ML roster most of next year. 5) That's true. 6) Agreed.
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Bird - I agree with your 1-5 but the Pohlad family has done enough to earn hostility from this fan base and you probably shouldn't accuse people that don't like the Pohlad's of just being jealous of their wealth.
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Reasoning on starting pitching rotation
gunnarthor replied to greengoblinrulz's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I believe the inning/arm worries are usually for pitchers under 25. I don't think the Twins are going to be overly cautious with guys like Walters, DeVries and even Diamond. -
They middle infield is better with Carroll and Dozier. The team is getting nice results from Revere, Dozier and Plouffe. That's probably not "luck" but rather part of regrouping a team. Ryan said in the offseason that Plouffe had enough bat to play RF, if need be. Burton and Walters were solid cheap pickups and the team has a number of bullpen type arms in AA and AAA that could allow us to move Burton or Capps. Willingham has been much better than either Cuddy or Kubel. Doumit has been a very good addition as well. Kind of hard to say they didn't fill a single hole or, as you say in many other posts, haven't been able to bring up minor leaguers to be regulars at the ML level. This team has horrible starting pitching and isn't getting much production from first base. Ryan will probably focus on those issues going forward but it doesn't have to be a 20m FA signing. He could make several small moves that work - like Bullock for Diamond, having success with another Blackburn type minor leaguer (maybe BJ Hermsen?), getting Gibson healthy, doing something with Liriano (trade, extension or arbitration offer) or signing some inning eating Pavano type pitchers.
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I think the Twins could manage to make one free agent signing - say Sanchez - if they wanted to and it wouldn't wreck their budget. That said, I think Ryan would rather make Bullock for Diamond type moves then spend a ton on a FA pitcher. Also, I disagree with FanaticJack that the Twins biggest weakness was starting pitching when Ryan took over. Last year's offense was comparable to the 2010 Mariners and our bullpen was an absolute mess. Ryan did a pretty solid job turning the bullpen around and adding some good, inexpensive bats to improve the offense.
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I don't think there will be much backlash, for the reasons Spidey mentioned. Span is still our most tradeable asset and I think he'll be moved but he doesn't have to be moved. Buton, Capps and Liriano should all be considered, as well. We'll see how the market develops. On the other hand, I do think Ryan will have to do something to improve the starting pitching before next season but that could be done in the offseason.
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Yeah, this. Morneau shouldn't be this bad against lefties so we should see improvement with more reps. The team isn't going to trade him this season so the best thing is for them to give him ABs and let him work this out.
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The Revere Experiment: Range vs Arm
gunnarthor replied to John Bonnes's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Yeah, his range is astonishing. And Dozier and Casilla (especially) both have pretty strong arms for MI that help negate a bit of his arm, too. -
I'm not sure what they should do with Liriano. I mean, he's been here so long, we shouldn't still be hoping that he gets it together but it sure is tempting. I wouldn't sign Liriano, but I wouldn't blame the FO if they decided to do it based on a handful of summer starts. It's a pipe dream, but I really hope the Twins go after Sanchez this offseason.