gunnarthor
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Everything posted by gunnarthor
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1) Nah, if the Twins decide he's the BPA, go for it. 2) I think the rumor is Giolito wants at least 4m to sign. If the Twins take someone at #2 who signs for 4.5, that saves the team 1.7+1.55 for the #32 pick + 600k they are allowed to go over budget would get them pretty close. But I don't think the Twins will go so far underslot at #2 to make that possible. But I'd love it if the Twins were able to get a top 5 talent and Giolito in the same draft.
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Sickels has him rated #30 overall, BA has him at #44 overall. He won't slip to 62. He might slip to 42 but I think the Twins take him 32.
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You have weird dreams. :-)
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This place will explode when the Twins take Buxton.
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Houston Appel Twins Buxton Seattle Zunino Balt Gausman KC Zimmer Cubs Correa Padres Fried Pirates Giolito Marlins Seager Rockies Dahl
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I liked it for a couple reasons. First, it was the first time the Twins were willing to trade from an area of strength (pitching) to get a bat that we desperately needed. Even without Garza, the team still had a lot of young arms - Slowey, Blackburn, Perkins, Baker, Boof and Liriano at the ML level, Mulvey, Humber, Duensing at AAA. Second, I was glad the team was moving away from the piranha thing and not giving up on offense at some positions. And, while Harris didn't really work out, our best team in 2010 really was an offensive team without the piranha crap. I don't know what the Twins could've done differently. As I recall, Young (because of the contract he signed when drafted) was out of options when we got him so we couldn't move him to AAA. Benching him didn't work all that well. He just never got strike-zone awareness. I've never been a big Smith basher. I think all of his moves are, to an extent, defendable but, as a whole, something was wrong. He made some good moves, esp before and during the 2010 season and some of his trades received more criticism than they deserved. Diamond for Bullock especially. I like that he got us more involved in Latin America and I like that he put Deron Johnson in charge of the drafts. But, while our drafts are usually well received when they happened, Johnson's drafts haven't really been productive, at least not yet.
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Twins Draft Preview V - A Dozen Names to Know
gunnarthor commented on Jeremy Nygaard's blog entry in Jeremy Nygaard
Nice write up. -
I think every complaint you had could have been used on Mauer. Cold weather player, not sure how he'd do against better competition. Still growing into his body. Also, the signing deadline was moved up to mid July this year so anyone that signs should get some time in the minors this year (although they might let some pitchers rest due to high number of college innings).
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That's not really true. Glavine, Maddux, Halladay, Lee all had cy young seasons/careers without many strike outs. Radke, while not an ace, had as many 5 war seasons as Beckett and Lackey combined.
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Probably depends on your definition of the numbers. I found this on baseball examiner. Baseball prospectus and america both have similar rankings but you need a subscription, I believe. #1 Starter: Two plus pitches, average third pitch, plus-plus command, plus makeup #2 Starter: Two plus pitches, average third pitch, average command, average makeup #3 Starter: One plus pitch, two average pitches, average command, average makeup #4 & #5 starters: Average velocity, consistent breaking ball, decent changeup, command of two of the pitches. A plus is a 60 or better, avg is 50, plus plus is 70. Makeup is focus, intensity, etc. All three guys - Appel, Zimmer and Gausman - could become #1 pitchers. I think the knock on them all has been it's not as likely to happen for them as it was for, say, Verlander. Gibson, I think, has one plus pitch and a couple close to plus (55s) so we'll see. He could be a #2 or #3. Keep in mind, before he was hurt, he was likely to go in the top 10 of a pretty solid draft. I have no idea on Wimmers. His change up is supposed to be plus but he's command and now his injury ...
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No one is a sure thing but, yeah, Correa and Buxton are higher risk than others. Then again, how would we feel if we took Gausman at #2 and then his arm fell off while Correa goes on to become a multiple all-star? I'm also not sure it would take 6 years for Buxton/Correa to make the majors. Both of them would probably be a good fit in the upcoming Sano nucleus. There are other places to get pitching. The Twins could take Brown and Pierce Johnson in the supplemental round. Both are solid pitching prospects, Johnson would be fairly quick to the majors. The Twins will also have a high pick in next years draft as well, so could get pitching there. Finally, they have money to spend on a free agent (yeah, probably not likely but it is a resource they have). I think the team is far enough away that they could take any of these five guys (Buxton, Correa and the three pitchers) and I'd be happy about it. My guess is the Twins take Buxton unless 1) Houston does or 2) Correa agrees to an underslot signing. If Houston takes Buxton and Correa and the Twins don't come to an agreement, I think they'll take Appel/Zimmer, whichever one they have ranked higher. And a draft of, say, Appel/Brown/Johnson would be pretty exciting.
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I think you're selling Correa's upside short. He's been compared to Tulo. Here's Mayo's write up on him "Defensively, Correa is above average across the board -- range, arm and actions -- leaving no question about his ability to stay at short. He can swing the bat, too, with the potential to be an above-average hitter with outstanding power." Sickels wrote: "Excellent hitter, yet chronologically young for his class. Even if he moves to third base, he's elite. Stellar makeup." Goldstein wrote "A big athletic shortstop with remarkable presence at the plate, quick hands, outstanding bat control and the potential for plus power. He's a plus runner who is graceful in the field and has one of the best infielder arms in the draft. The only concern is with his size, as he’s already 6-foot-3 and approaching 200 pounds, but he has more than enough ability to be a star at third base as well, and one scout believes he'd actually get to the big leagues quicker at that position." Both Sickels and Goldstein rank him #1 in this draft. Additionally, if you could get Correa for 4.5-5 million, you could use that extra million to sign some hard to sign players later in the draft. That said, I'd be happy with any of the names that have been branded about at #2.
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Yeah, I think signability will factor a lot into the Twins thinking. Another name to watch for the Twins at 32/42 would be Pierce Johnson. He had some minor arm issues this year but should be a fast to the majors type with modest (#3) upside but likely to reach it. Sorta like what we thought we'd get with Wimmers.
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Interesting list - http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/6/1/3057719/top-100-baseball-draft-prospects-for-2012-scouting-reports#storyjump He has Correa #1 and Buxton #5 with the 3 pitchers in between. Mitch Brown is #30 and a likely pick for us at #32. According to some, the Twins are having Correa come back for a second look.
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I think Gausman's lack of a ML ready third pitch plus his lack of control (comparatively) makes him third behind Appel and Zimmer on the Twins wish list (maybe even Giolito). But a future rotation with Gausman and Gibson wouldn't be the worst thing to look forward to.
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Did he change his article or did you just misread it? "6. Justin Morneau, DH-1B, Twins: Now that his concussion symptoms have subsided and he's showing power again (.535 slugging percentage), playing some first base and he's a candidate to help an AL contender. Negative: He is owed $23 million through next year."
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It's about right - Callis and Sickels both have both commented on the fit. Callis said something to the effect of if other teams want Brown, they'd have to take him late first. Sickels thinks he's one of the most advanced HS arms in the country and was shooting up draft boards. He probably doesn't make it to #42 but #32 is a fine pick.
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Generally, relief pitching prospects don't have much value (generally). The team trading for relief pitching would want to make sure they are getting a player that could help them now and would want some track record of success at the ML level (unless it's a salary dump). On the other hand, in tight races, guys like Perkins, Capps and Burton could all have some decent value and allow the Twins to bring up a guy like Guerra or Oliveres.
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Trahan could fall to us at 32 but it's probably not likely. Klaw was reporting that several teams outside the top 10 were considering going under value with their first round picks to save money later. So guys expected to be taken low in the first round or even supplemental could be drafted higher than expected. Russell is an interesting pick and certainly a Twins type pick. Pace HS is about 2 hours from Ft Myers so I could see the Twins taking him. But I still think they take Mitch Brown at #32.
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SI.Com steroids story on former Twins' pitchers
gunnarthor replied to Cris E's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Mitchell report was useless. Generally, I think the Twins knew some guys were on roids but didn't help supply it. They were pretty active in Summer Leagues in Latin America and would send some big prospects down there and they'd get bigger (David Arcia, for one). I don't think any team was innocent in the steroid thing but I don't think the Twins were among the biggest violators, for a number of reasons. I'm also not sure that their reliance on control over velocity was based on steroids except that control pitchers tended to be cheaper. -
SI.Com steroids story on former Twins' pitchers
gunnarthor replied to Cris E's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Yeah, that was a great read. -
With the Twins history with Boras, I just don't see how they'd take Appel.
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The Twins could, quite reasonably, think that 20 yr old Zimmer has the highest ceiling. Of the college arms, (IIRC), Zimmer has at least average control of four pitches right now (Gausman has two, Appel three), solid command and control and his fastball has hit the high 90s (although it's dipped some recently). Zimmer is also the best athlete of the pitching prospects. Of course, they could also think that Buxton will be the next Mike Trout ...
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Here's the link. Twins will probably take either Buxton (#1), Zimmer (#3), Gausman (#5) or Correa (#6) with their first pick. MN prep pitcher, Mitchell Brown, is ranked #44. Best power bat available in this draft is Joey Gallo, ranked #33. Sickel's Twins mock had Twins taking Correa, Brown, JO Berrios (#49, exciting P.R. high school arm) and Purdue catcher Plawecki (#67). I'd be pretty happy if we got Zimmer, Gallo, Brown/Berrios with our first three picks.
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Dozier, maybe?