gunnarthor

That's a bit unrealistic, too. WAR has lots of problems but it'll work for our purposes. In three months, Beltran amassed about 1 WAR for the Giants (who gave up uber-pitching prospect Wheeler). Pence is fairly comparable to our guys. Avg about 3 WAR/season, low of 2.1 high of 3.7, traded at 28 so you knew what you'd get over the next few years. Span is a fairly safe bet to be a constant 3 WAR guy (and much cheaper) over his remaining deal. Latos, Marcum and Gonzalez are considered up and coming guys but none are all stars and all had some baggage - either injury concerns or failing to rack up innings or questions about pitching outside of a pitching haven. The three had combined for 4 3+ WAR seasons before they were traded and were traded based on hope that they'd continue to improve (Marcum probably wasn't worth Lawrie, Latos isn't doing well, Gonzalez is), whereas Span and Willingham are already established. Those teams are hoping those guys turn into consistent 3+ WAR guys. Jiminez was traded based on two seasons several years past and had been really struggling when traded (and still is). Gonzalez, Halladay are game changers but also had significant salary baggage that limited the number of teams that could bid on them. Something that won't affect Span and Willingham. (Incidentally, Capps has amassed more WAR than Ramos, the one "incredibly stupid deal" in your words). The main difference in the handful of trades I listed (and it wasn't a comprehensive list and it only went back a couple years) is that Willingham and Span are more "what you see is what you get" guys, like Pence. Teams aren't going to trade for them and hope they get better and they should be fairly (as much as you can be) consistent in their production over the life of their contracts. Span has had one bad year, which was mostly bad luck, and has racked up 4.5 WAR over his last 130 games. Willingham is a solid slugger making 7m/yr and has a 130 OPS+ since 2009. Both are among the cheapest players listed, as well. The other advantage (hopefully) that the Twins will have will be more teams trying to be buyers with the extra wildcard and tight races in several divisions.

Surkamp hasn't pitched yet this year, he hurt his elbow and had a set back. For whatever reason, scouts don't like him as much as his stat line should indicate. Crafty, soft tossing lefty. Sickels wrote: "Doesn't throw hard buthas the statistical components of a power pitcher, excellent K/IPs and few hits, in the minors anyway. Was more tentative in the majors once the scouting reports got around and was hit hard. I think he can adjust and become a solid number four starter."

Based on the other thread ... Dodgers could be a partner for Span (or Willingham). Currently they are using Bobby Abreau in left but could move him to first (which is also a problem for them). Worse, for them, their main lead-off hitter, Gordon, has an OBP around .285. The Dodgers are going to be printing money with their new ownership and TV deals and will be among the likely bidders on Hamels next year (Hamels, Billingsly and Kershaw, yikes). They won't be as dependent on their farm system as they used to be so could trade some of their surplus pitching. Span makes sense for them - lead off hitter, able to spell Kemp in center when needed, already used to hitting in a pitchers park. Ideally, the Dodgers come back to the pack a bit (they're 5 games up but overplaying their pyth by a few games) where they realize they can't let Gordon lead off anymore. With their expanding payroll, they'll be able to cover any future prospect losses. The Twins could target several of their pitching prospects. Baseball America had 3 of their pitching prospects in the top 100 last year the lowest of whom has made four starts in the majors this year. The top two, Zach Lee and Allen Webster, have struggled a bit this year but have good peripheral numbers. Lee, especially, doesn't walk many. John Sickels wrote: "They have good strength in right-handed starting pitching: Lee, Eovaldi, Webster, Gould, Sanchez, and Withrow could all develop into workhorse starters and perhaps more. Lee has the best projection and gets the highest grade, but all of these guys have the stuff to succeed, if they stay healthy, of course." They also have a few other enticing Twin type guys in toolsy OFers like Joc Pederson and James Baldwin.

It's certainly something to watch. Pirates are basically tied for the last wildcard spot and, after 19 years of really bad baseball, it'll be interesting to see if they would be willing to move Taillon. If they sign Appel it might make it a bit more possible. But I also expect Pitt to fall down the standings before the deadline looms so they'll end up staying pat. But from the Twins stand point, it makes sense to demand someone like Taillon in return for Willingham. If you don't get him, some other team will (hopefully) pay in a tight race. I think Cole would be untouchable and Hereida's too far away to interest me.

Mauer can't be traded. Everyone else can be. That said, my five core guys would be Mauer, Gibson, Hendriks, Revere (cheaper Span) and ... screw it, Morneau. Keep him. I don't want him traded.

Let's see, top prospects moved the last few years. Here's a list of prospects traded since after the 2009 season (BA ranking in parenthesis). Zach Wheeler (35) for 3 months of Carlos Beltran. Brad Peacock (36), Derek Norris (72), AJ Cole (57) + Tommy Milone for Gio Gonzalez. Yonder Alonso (33), Yasmani Grandal (53) + 2 more including Edison Valquez for Mat Latos. Wilson Ramos (96) for Matt Capps. Jarred Cosart (50), Jonathan Singleton (34) + Josh Zeid for Hunter Pence. Brett Lawrie (40) for Shaun Marcum. Jake Ordorizzi (68), Alcides Escobar (12), + two more (including BA #100 the year before) for Zach Greinke. Casey Kelly (31), Anthony Rizzo (75) + two more for Adrian Gonzalez. Jesus Montere (6) for Michael Pineda. Kyle Drabek (25), Travis D'Arnaud (81) and Michael Taylor (29) for Roy Halladay. (Taylor was immediately traded for Brett Wallace (27)). Drew Pomeranz (30), Alex White (47) + two more for Ubaldo Jiminez. And that's also not counting some of the other deals for guys like Rasmus or the big Granderson trade that included Kennedy, Jackson, Schertzer (sp) etc. So clearly, top prospects are getting dealt. Span and Willingham are both established major leaguers with team friendly contracts. While they aren't the game changers that Halladay or Gonzalez are, they are also considerably cheaper (combined salary this year is 12.5m). They also (hopefully) will be dealt in the middle of a very competitive trading deadline with the additon of the fifth wildcard in each league. If the Twins don't get a comparable offer for either of them, they shouldn't trade them. They'll still have value at next years deadline.

How old is Torrens?

Just a guess but I suspect he was thinking something along the lines of "we dropped 10 games in the standings in a month. Our bullpen sucks and has been pitching over its head. Ramos is injury prone and isn't hitting at AAA, I have the best catcher in baseball. We're in it to win now." Incidentally, Sickels wrote about the trade when it happened: "The Twins traded Wilson Ramos and Joe Testa to the Nationals for Matt Capps. Capps reinforces the Twins bullpen for the stretch run. Testa isn't a prospect, but Ramos definitely is. I have some misgivings about his bat due to his sketchy plate discipline, but his glove has really come around and his power potential remains impressive. I like him, but not enough to pan the trade from Minnesota's point of view; I think it is fair for both teams. In my Shadow Twins universe, I will make this trade." Baseball America noted: "The Twins had issues with his conditioning, and he's heavier than the above indicates. He's a base-clogger and well-below-average runner." And going by bWAR since the trade, Capps has been worth 2.3 to Ramos' 2.0 (although comparing reliever WAR to anyone is sorta ridiculous).

It's too early to tell but the Pence, Gonzalez and Latos trades this past year+ are all good examples of the type of trades I'd like us to get.

Nice read. Interestingly, in the other trade Smith got killed for, if you like bWAR, Capps has been worth 2.3 for the Twins to Ramos' 2.0.

You know, just looking at other teams #2 picks, it seems the Twins have been fine. The Rays, for instance, haven't had a good second round pick since 99 (Crawford) and they picked a lot earlier in each draft than the Twins. The Mariners haven't had a successful 2nd rounder since 1987. Slowey, Baker, Swarzak and Crain were all solid picks. That we got Cabrera, Castillo and Diamond for three other guys seems like a pretty good success rate. 8 of 18 made the majors, 3 others were traded for solid MLers, Goodrum and Boer are still too young to make a decision on. 4 never made the majors and 1 didn't sign. And with the supp rounds, it can make a second round pick pretty late - 3 of our 2nd rounders were picked at #80 or later.

Yeah, I've never really hated him either - the only guy I really hated was Dan Barrerio but I was 13 at the time.

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing and I don't think his groundball rate is elite, either. He's still young so maybe he adds something. Maybe he ends up as a bullpen arm. But, regardless, it's nice to see him having success. Maybe the Twins will start grabbing more upside HS arms.

Just to add to this, 11 Rogers - 277 12 Muren - 295 13 Knab - 338 14 Proctor - 288 17 Hicks - 400 18 LaMarche - 401 26 Jones - 381 27 Grundy - 351 31 Robinson - 153 36 Marvel - 206 It'll be interesting to see if the Twins use their extra money to sign a guy like Robinson or Marvel.

Cueller is responsible for all of Santana's sucess. Liriano's too (although it's Anderson's fault when he's bad).

Hicks avg hasn't moved much the last few weeks although his OBP went up a little. He's now hitting .247/.347/.395 (the EL is hitting .256/.327/.378). He's added his 8th double and 6th home run but that's been it in extra base hits since 5/20. He's 15 for 20 on stolen bases (4th in the EL) and his walks have crept up and he now has 31 walks against 49 strike outs (he leads the EL in walks). His struggles batting left handed are continuing. I'm not sure how much longer the Twins should let him switch hit. Obviously, if he can do it, that's great but right now he's great against lefties (.866 OPS) and bad against righties (.692). I'm not sure if just making him hit right handed all the time would make him better against righties or not but it's got to be getting close to the point of trying it, I would think. Generally, it's good to remember he's still just 22 and, as boring as it is, he probably just needs more time. Obviously, a lot of people are going to compare Hicks and Buxton as they both have the potential same tools although Buxton was (according to scouts) slightly more advanced than Hicks when drafted. Here's an article about him from a few days ago: http://busleaguesbaseball.com/2012/06/aaron-hicks-and-the-long-road-to-minneapolis/

Well, I think you certainly found ways to make numbers lie. Look at Lohse, for example. You show a few rate stats that suggest he's been better in St. Louis under uber-pitching coach Duncan. But you ignore things like IP, park factors and even the switch to the NL. WAR (and WAR has TONS of problems) shows that, while their adjusted ERA was roughly the same, Lohse's career WAR in MN was nearly double what he's done in St. Louis 5.5 vs 2.8. (St Louis also payed him over 33m for that while we paid him 7.3m). Same problem again with Romero who threw over 400 innings, out of a career total of about 600, with the Twins yet your only "analysis" is rate stats. You also included Redman who was traded before Anderson became our pitching coach (solid analysis for the guy who thought Smalley wasn't on the 87 Twins team). As others indicated, you also failed to do any study the other way - pitchers that got better. Guys like Guerrier, Reyes, Breslow, Burton, Nathan all got better when they came to the Twins.

Good post. Another thing to remember is there isn't much difference (if any) between BA's 33 draft prospect and their 55th. From his chat today: Bill (KC): Jim, I'm curious about something and I'm sure a lot of others are as well. We see a list of 500 prospects. From a talent perspective, how big are the separation gaps on the list? How much separates prospect #354 and #475? On a related note, for guys ranked in, say, the bottom 200, how many detailed reports are you getting on these guys to rank them where you are? Jim Callis: There is not a huge difference between Nos. 354-475. When I describe prospects, I tend to think of them in groups of first round (1-30), sandwich round (31-60), second-third round (61-120), fourth-seventh round (121-240), eighth-12th round (241-390), with players in each group roughly comparable. Hope that made sense.

This moves just gives us a LH bat on the bench and we're finally down to 12 pitchers. Seems fine. I think we might be overstating the importance of AAA at bats.

Isn't saying much? We're supposed to get a Mauer out of every draft?

Um, well Parra is younger but that's about it. Career OPS+ 104 v 94, career WAR 13.2 v 4.5. More of the same this year. Not sure why you'd even think that unless you're just blinded by some anti-Twin rage.

Span's a good trade chip but unless we get a Pence like deal for him, keep him. As others noted, there's no point in trading him for low level prospects. With the additional wild card, a lot more teams will be in playoff races, Span's deal is good enough that small market teams can afford him. Wait until the deadline and hopefully one team overpays. If no one is willing to make a good deal, keep Span.

The author of Moneyball was going to write a story about how small market teams were competing. He narrowed it down to A's and Twins, Twins and Ryan were actually his first choice. I don't remember what happened to change that - A's offered more access? - but he decided to write about the A's instead. Rest is history.

First, the Twins haven't taken him, so it's a bit early to say the Twins are overvaluing him. The fact that they passed on him twice seems to indicate that. Second, BA had him rated #44 overall, Sickels had him #30 overall. Klaw said he was a solid pick for the Twins but I don't have insider so I don't know where he was ranked. So, in any event, there's nothing out there that supports either your claim that the Twins over value him or that he's a 3rd round pick for most teams.

Guess they were lucky to win all those games and develop two MVPs. -sigh- I really don't understand why there's so much negativity. They're in a down cycle, it's normal.