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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Baseball America just had a little article on him: http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2012/05/deolis-guerra-finally-reaches-triple-a-looks-like-he-belongs/
  2. gunnarthor
    Name some of these teams. I'm not sure this tells us all that much. The Twins have used homegrown talent throughout this decade (Liriano should be included in your list) and found many good pieces later in the draft - Neshek, Duesning, Blackburn. And not all drafts were created equal. Look at the 07 draft - we had the 28th overall pick and then the 92nd (lots of supplemental picks there). It was a weak draft overall - Revere right now has the 16th highest WAR of any of the 64 first round picks. And we also have to remember that the Pohlads put spending limits on these drafts as well. The FO might have wanted to sign someone but needed to draft Revere, who signed for under slot. I'm not quite ready to go ballistic on the Twins recent drafts. I'm still a big believer in Hicks and the Gibson pick was the right one, even with the injury risk. Last years draft was a nice haul. We've managed to grab a few underrated players later, including Rosario and Dozier in later rounds and have turned a few of our recent second round picks into ML players in trades for Cabrera and Diamond. I didn't like the Wimmers pick but smarter people than I did thought it was fine. This draft we have 5 picks in the first 75 (or so). In 07 we had 2 in the first 92, in 10 we had 2 in the first 71. Those drafts really don't tell us that much about how this draft will work.
  3. gunnarthor
    Yeah, the division thing is overplayed. Sometime between 06-08, the Twins had the best winning percentage in baseball against the AL East. Naturally, they had an overall losing record in 07. Someone at HBT, I think, did a study on the unbalanced schedule and found that, at best, it might be worth one extra win/loss in a season. Neyer linked it his last year at ESPN.
  4. gunnarthor
    If Bill Smith was still our GM, I'd probably actually agree. Smith and Gardy never were on the same page on how to build a team. But Gardy and Ryan seem to have a similar viewpoint. I'd let this second Ryan regime a run before firing the manager.
  5. gunnarthor
    Nicely done.
  6. gunnarthor
    Very good point. I know people don't like to hear small market but the Twins were the only small market team that remained competitive while bringing in a new nucleus of talent this last decade.
  7. gunnarthor
    Couple points - Milton wasn't drafted by us - we traded Knoublach for him (and three others). Mike Radcliff was draft guru until Ryan resigned. Smith made Johnson draft guru. The drafts since 05 or so have been interesting. The 04 draft was widely praised at the time (BA rated it the #1 draft) but injuries to all 4 pitchers taken in the first round took the wind out of its sails. In 05, we took Garza, Slowey and Duensing. Not a bad draft. 06 was Parmelee/Benson and Valencia too. 07 was Radcliff's last draft. Generally, it was a pretty weak draft class. Revere was our top pick and he's been a pretty good pick if you compare him with the rest of that first round. Johnson took over in 08 and his drafts have usually been well received when it happened. His first draft he took two hard throwing pitchers and Aaron Hicks in the first round. 09 saw Gibson fall to us but he also spent several more picks on flame throwers. 2010 he grabbed Wimmers, who probably won't make it now, but also grabbed Rosario and Niko Goodrum, two intriguing lowball prospects. Last year Michael slipped to us and we also grabbed a few more hard throwers and a big HS power bat in Harrison. I'm honestly not sure what to make of these drafts. Ryan said Radcliff will be heavily involved in this years draft but, presumably, so will Johnson. I think the #2 pick is relatively hard to screw up. The other picks are going to be what makes/breaks the teams future.
  8. gunnarthor
    Here's the link: http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7902044/guillermo-mota-san-francisco-giants-gets-100-game-drug-suspension Not a lot of news for the Twins but the Giants could use a CF and now maybe a RP. We've traded with the Giants before so maybe that becomes more likely.
  9. gunnarthor
    Putting rookies in their place is a normal thing. Harper is a big time prospect who gets a lot of media attention so he'll get swat down a bit. But pitchers challenging rookies isn't new. Mike Piazza told a story once where he was a hot shot prospect in Dodgers spring training (probably 91 or 92). He stepped in against Bert Blyleven, then with the Angels, career almost over. Bert's first pitch is a fastball high and inside that makes Piazza jump back. His next pitch starts at his head again, Piazza leaps out, ball curves back into strike zone, ump calls it a strike and Piazza later said something to the effect of "I was terrified. I thought I'd never hit ML pitching."
  10. gunnarthor
    Yeah, and Rosario's doing pretty good too. Both need defensive work but it would be nice to see them move up to A+. Esp since we have so few big time prospects.
  11. gunnarthor
    Well, if your bar is World Series or bust, no hire is going to make you happy. And let's put some perspective on this. The Puckett Twins had 4 winning seasons and made the playoffs twice. I'd rather have the Twins last decade then the White Sox last decade. I suppose people can differ but I suspect most fans go away during those losing seasons and come back for the few winning seasons.
  12. gunnarthor
    Good grief. Reductio ad absurdum is fun. Since player safety is tantamount, we should probably eliminate take out slides while we're at it. And probably change the bats and balls to nerf bats so we don't have any more shattered bats flying at players and fans. Maybe mandate that hitters wear a lot of body armor and pitchers can't throw inside. And change the schedule to give more days off and fewer overall games since all those games and travel fatigue players. Maybe play fewer innings so we don't put as much wear/tear on the pitchers arm.
  13. gunnarthor
    I don't know if it's as big a deal as some think but if we finish with 120+ losses, sure, Gardy's probably gone. But I'd be pretty surprised if we did anything during the season and I think if Gardy goes, Ryan is probably gone, too.
  14. gunnarthor
    I think the years (esp Hamels) and money is a bit low on each of those guys but I agree with all the money coming off, the Twins could buy one legit starting pitcher. Liriano is a FA so I don't think he'd take a one year deal from us (under the new CBA, we have to offer him 12.5m in arbitration to get a draft pick for him if he signed elsewhere, I believe). Cain's 6/127m deal is going to be the starting point for a lot of these guys. They won't all get it (although Hamels probably will). Sanchez would be intriguing. Grienke's price might be driven down by his struggles the last two seasons and his mental health history. But, yeah, I hope we sign at least one of these guys.
  15. gunnarthor
    Interesting article on SI: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/albert_chen/05/07/dylan.bundy.trevor.bauer.long.toss/index.html?sct=mlb_t11_a0 Anyone know how the Twins view long tossing?
  16. gunnarthor
    I think the Twins would be better looking at other teams than the Nats. Giants have Angel Pagan leading off and playing CF. Reds are in win-now mode but Stubbs has been a disappointment. Marlins have been using Emilio Bonificio in center and in the two spot. Phillies, still in win-now mode, have an OF with Juan Pierre and Shane Victorino. Myjer Morgan's been a disaster in Milwaukee (although they might be sellers, not buyers). Flower's been bad in CF for Colorado, who could use some more range in their OF. Rays are losing Upton after this year and would allow Zobrist to move to second. Etc, etc. The point is, nearly every team that thinks it's in a race could use Span. Finding a good deal for him should be possible.
  17. gunnarthor
    Look at recent real trades. Reds got Mat Latos and gave up Yonder Alonso (BA #33 prospect), Yasmani Grandal (BA #53 prospect), Brad Boxberger (Reds #10 prospect) and Edinson Volquez. Nats got Gio Gonzalez for AJ Cole (BA #57 prospect), Brad Peacock (BA #36 prospect), Derek Norris (former top 100 prospect, now A's #7) and Tommy Milone (now A's #10 prospect). So, the Twins don't have those type of deals to make to get a top flight pitcher. Instead, they should be the selling team and trading away Span for two top 50 prospects + two more team top 10 prospects. Span should get that kind of return.
  18. gunnarthor
    Personally, I like it. I like the tradition stuff. I like how it'll add another layer to the Nats/Phillies rivalry. Remember when Hunter destroyed (totally unnecessarily) the White Sox catcher (Burke, I believe)? That stuff makes rivalries better.
  19. gunnarthor
    I think Span is great - I want a Pence like deal for him. Where we disagree is the idea that we can give away a platter of our bad players and low prospects for a good/great starter from another team. The Twins aren't going to get anything with a centerpiece being a thirdbaseman who can't field and posts an 82 OPS+ over the last two seasons. To get the type of starters we want, we'll have to surrender something valuable back. Last year at the trade deadline, we held onto Cuddyer who was in demand. The Mets decided to trade their FA OF, Carlos Beltran, to the Giants for pitching prospect Zack Wheeler. The Twins should've been doing something like that. Instead, we hung onto him, lost 99 games and got the 32 and 83 (I think) pick in this draft for him instead. And spent 21m on his replacement. The team is far away. They'll need to spend money in free agency this offseason but that won't be enough. They need to get young talent that can come up and build around a new nucleus of talent. Span can get us several additional young pieces to build around. If the best offer you get for him is Drew Storen, then you hang onto Span. But if you can get a Pence-like deal, go for it.
  20. gunnarthor
    Flip this on its head - would you trade a healthy Kyle Gibson to the Cubs for Ian Stewart and Chris Volstad?
  21. gunnarthor
    I'm not sure where to go with someone who thinks Buchanan/Bartlett swap was a bad move. In any event, you won't get anything valuable for the Danny Valencia's of the world. This team needs talent and they have a good piece to swap for future talent in Span. They should do it if there's a good offer out there.
  22. gunnarthor
    Actually, it sorta is. Knoblauch for Milton/Guzzy, AJ for Liriano/Nathan, Buchanan for Bartlett etc. We're gonna lose a lot this season. Unless Morneau comes back from injury and comes back to his MVP self, our offense is gonna be bad and our pitching will remain very bad. Span is a great asset that could bring back potential impact players. No deal centered around Valencia, Swarzak and Arcia would. It's very likely that when we're good again, Hicks or Benson will be our best centerfielder.
  23. gunnarthor
    I'd hate to give up on Hicks' offense possibility. Sure, he hasn't broken out yet but he's only 22. (He went 3-4 tonight with 2 stolen bases). He just needs at-bats. Some guys it'll take longer with but Hicks has a wonderful eye at the plate, which is usually the hardest thing to learn. Hunter and Span, our last two HS CF prospects were hitting worse at AA their age 22 seasons. Eventually, Hicks will get there (I hope).
  24. gunnarthor
    I don't remember a Slowey/Wilson rumor of any kind. By the time Nathan got hurt, in ST, the Rangers had already plugged Wilson into their rotation. MLBtraderumors doesn't mention any sort of Wilson/Slowey rumor and they list almost anything that gets mentioned.
  25. gunnarthor
    Hicks has cooled a bit, now hitting .260/.342/.433 and has added one HR since the last update. He continues to struggle against righties but has respectable isolate power and on-base skills against them. His krate and walk rates have both moved in the wrong direction but his power has also gone up so it's possible he's taking better hacks in hitters count, instead of passively taking walks. But it's still early, of course.
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