gunnarthor
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Everything posted by gunnarthor
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Cafardo: Denard Span remains on Nationals' radar.
gunnarthor replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I just posted this elsewhere but the Twins should get a Pence-like deal for Span (4 prospects, 2 top 50). I'm not sure the Nats have what we need (a lot of their best prospects are hurt and/or within a year of being drafted). I think we'd be better off looking elsewhere. A good CFer, LH, high on-base guy with a team friendly contract should be something nearly every team should want. I think teams like the Giants (Angel Pagan leading off in CF) or the Reds (Stubbs have been a bust) could really use Span since they both seem to be in win now modes. -
Right but a guy like Purke couldn't be a centerpiece. His play has slipped the last two years, he's been injured and right now, at 22, he's in EST. Turnbull is 22 and striking out 5.6 9/K at low A ball. Solis is hurt. Goodwin can't be traded yet (Twins fans explode over another toolsy OFer). I think the Twins should look at other teams for Span. I wonder if the Twins could get a deal around Belt, Eric Surkamp and Hembree from SF. Or try and see if the Reds 'win-now' year lets them part with some of their better prospects. In any event, if the Twins can't get a Hunter Pence like deal for Span (4 players, 2 top 50 prospects), don't trade him.
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Twins Talent evaluation, new scouts?
gunnarthor replied to minn55441's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I think that's an interesting issue. Deron Johnson, who took over the draft after Ryan left, has drafted a number of big arms - Tootle, Bullock, Williams, Boyd, Boer, Hunt, Gibson. Some of those guys got hurt, others traded and others are still far away. Ryan mentioned that our old draft honcho - Mike Radcliff - will have a lot of influence on this draft. So I wonder if the Twins are moving away from Johnson's approach (he also drafted college hitters and HS pitchers more than Radcliff ever did). -
Actually, I don't think the Nats have that great of a system anymore - they graduated all their really awesome prospects. Rendon's hurt. But I agree with your sentiment. Storen would be a horrible centerpiece for us to trade Span for.
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Yeah, I think that was in a SI article talking about the Rangers.
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It's a bit early to call any of those guys a bust. Hicks is having a good season at AA, Gibson is healing from TJ but was a good pitcher when healthy, Micheal has been a pro for about a month.
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Breaking: Scott Diamond and Brian Dozier to join the Twins
gunnarthor replied to Thrylos's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
So Hendriks + another pitcher? -
Seems like a guy to keep an eye on but you shouldn't compare stats between the SEC and Big 10 leagues (I think I have my leagues right). SEC is a much better baseball conference.
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Thanks for the link. Jamie Burke, I remember him with the White Sox. Small world.
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Off the top of my head, Baker, Garza, Slowey, Perkins all made their ML debut a year or two of being drafted. Gibson clearly would have if he didn't get injured. It happens. If we draft a college kid, I think it's fairly likely that they'll make an appearance within two years. (Esp with signing being moved up and a lot of these guys will get MiLB experience this year).
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Yeah, BPA is the right idea. I think KLaw listed the Twins as interested in Gausman/Zimmer at #2. Buxton seems like a Twins type pick but apparently we haven't been showing a lot of interest in him. Zunino makes a lot of sense for us, Sickels had us picking him and then using the rest of our early picks on pitchers. That might happen. Zimmer misssed his last start and Gausman has control issues. Twins might pass on both and go for the sure® thing in Zunino. We'll see. Whoever we pick should move fairly fast through our system. Not as sexy, but our other later picks will be what makes or breaks this draft for us. Obviously we won't know that for years.
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Are the Twins really paying $100+ million for this mess?
gunnarthor replied to JB_Iowa's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Here's the Cot's baseball contract breakdown: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Ah4PW47PiAi-dEdsdFRfTmw1ZlZZQndaX3E0ZnhQQXc&output=html He's pretty reliable. -
Not sure what the big deal is. Yankees AAA team is homeless this year while their park gets an uplift. A number of their home games will be played in Rochester. The IL has to make some concessions to the schedule for it.
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Yeah, I've suggested something like that elsewhere. I like the idea but there is some downside - 1) you're not getting the best player 2) you don't know if they player will honor the agreement and if he holds out for a lot more, your entire draft could be in trouble 3) this draft isn't so deep that you want to ignore the best players at the top to take a few more Boyd/Harrison type players in the mid rounds. (Pirates did this a few years ago when they drafted Sanchez #4 expecting to use more money in the later rounds and stockpiling a few million for Miguel Sano. Didn't work out so well. Now they've gone back to usually targeting the best player. I can see where the Twins decide that Gausman/Buxton/Zunino and Zimmer are all equally valid at #2 and decide to take the cheapest one but I don't think they'd do anything more than that, at least this year.
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There's a few problems with treating the #2 pick so poorly, first, they'd be much less likely to sign and either reenter the draft next year or play a year with the Saints. It would also destroy the Twins reputation with young talent, a group the Twins really, really need. Second, losing out on Zunino (or whoever) to pick third next year hurts the club. That pick might not want to sign with the Twins, b/c of their rep so we're going to have to narrow our field of prospects. And giving up talent this year just pushes the rebuild down the road a year. The #2 in this draft is a good pick. Whoever we grab is likely to be our #2 prospect and a top 50 (or better) prospect in all baseball. A few of the college arms could move quite quickly to help our rotation. Zunino's bat should move quickly, too. Also, Giolito isn't likely to be available at 32.
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I'd be surprised if the Twins fired anyone but Souhan pointed out that the younger Pohlad's might not have Carl's sense of loyalty or patience. So, we'll see.
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Hey, the sky can't fall without Fanatic Jack
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Span, Mauer, Cabrera, Hamilton, Longoria. That would be a really fun 1-5.
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If they don't, then don't make that trade. I think you look at Hunter Pence's trade as comparable - Phillies gave up 2 top 50 prospects + two more intriguing young guys. Span should be worth a lot and I think, if they decide to move him, could create a bidding war. A lot of teams could use a high on base guy who has his range in center, esp one with such a nice contract. A team like Cincinnati, in win-now mode, might not want to for Stubbs to turn things around after a couple disappointing seasons. Most teams that will be in a playoff hunt at the deadline could use a guy like Span to either take over center or to take over left from an aging and declining player.
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Actual HR. He'll pull one down a line and it'll sneak out.
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I'm not sure there's a lot the Twins can do. Unless they get injured, Pavano, Blackburn and Marquis will stay in the rotation. Hendriks is a rookie and, at some point, might need to be sent down like Baker was. I think we'll end up giving 30-40 starts to Swarzak, Diamond, French or Deduno type guys. They'll play the 'hot hand' for a few weeks and when the league catches back up to them, replace them with someone else.
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Slowey, now pitching for Cleveland's AAA club after failing to make Cleveland's opening day roster, hasn't looked so good. In four starts he's 1-2, 4.85 ERA. In 26ip, he's struck out 18 while walking 7. He's also given up 29 hits already. And he's last two starts have been his worst. On the plus side, for him, he's making 2.75million.
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Well, good for him. He's still pretty young. Here's hoping this turns out well.
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That's really interesting. Thanks for sharing. Need to learn more about those two pitchers.
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John Sickels at minorleagueball took a question about Hicks today: Q: Do you think this could be the year for him? Seems strange that a jump to AA could be the catalyst to a breakout. If he continues his early season success where do you think he’d rank overall in terms of prospects? [h=5]A: it's a little early to conclude that, any sort of slump will push his SLG back down The tools have always been here, and unlike some guys who struggle, he’s always made an effort to control the zone. I would say there is reason for cautious optimism, but I wouldn’t jump to any conclusions[/h]