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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. Cool. It would be nice to see him win another batting title. He's having a pretty strong season. 144 OPS+, 5 fWAR. Leads league in OBP. Frankly, he's in that tier of players behind Trout and Cabrera.
  2. I really wanted to answer these questions but my hatred of the man refuses to let me do it.
  3. http://sports.yahoo.com/news/pirates---hells-angels-----navy-seals--minor-league-training-methods-become-mlb-joke--.html GM Huntington is making top prospects go through a Navy Seal type training program. Still doing it even after star pitching prospect got injured in hand to hand combat training. Wow.
  4. I think the chance of them moving Hicks or Arcia is almost nil. They need at least one of those guys in the short-term if they trade Span, who is easily their most valuable and tradable piece. Over the long-term, they need to create a cushion if Revere fails and as Willingham transitions into a more fitting role at DH. The Twins have a lot of OF prospects but with Benson falling on his face in 2012, that list shortened quite a bit and chances are they'll need both Arcia and Hicks in the mid-term to bridge the gap to Buxton. If they trade Span and Arcia, they have a starting OF next year of Willingham, Revere, Parmelee w/Mastro as #4 and Herrmann/Doumit as #5. Hicks will be in the wings and the Twins will have a bunch of replacement level OFers at AAA (Carson, Ramirez, Benson, Thomas) if nothing else. There is some gap behind Hicks/Arcia as no one at A+ really jumps out but Sano probably goes to RF and he could progress quickly. I'm not saying just get rid of one of Hicks/Arcia but both of those guys should have some trade value to teams looking to add OF prospect for pitching. Could Ryan move Hicks in a package to the pitching rich Rays to get Chris Archer, BA #89 (fell from #29 the year before) who is having a cup of coffee in the majors this year? Twins apparently were eying Eovaldi (#96) from the Dodgers at one point.
  5. He's been worth the money this season. $13.5m isn't that much money for a guy that is posting a 116 ERA+. But I agree that there's a good chance whoever signs him deeply regrets it by 2016 (he should get at least four years, probably five this offseason). With top-shelf (or perceived top-shelf) pitchers, you overpay just to sign the guy. You sign him for an extra year or two as the player inevitably declines. Once you factor in that overpaying and extended length, you're easily looking at a guy who will be 50% more expensive over the short term and crippling over the longterm. I have zero issues with the Twins avoiding "elite" free agent pitching. It's just not a smart move for mid-market teams. On the other hand, I will be terribly disappointed if they don't sign a Jackson/Marcum/Sanchez type for three years. Those are the type of contracts that won't kill a mid-market team even if they fail. Sure, the upside is lower but if you're going to compete, you have to do it from the farm. Free agency has to be a complementary piece of the puzzle, not the main piece. My blueprint would be to trade Span for a high upside guy in the minors (probably low minors) to build for the long term. Then I'd sign a Jackson/Marcum type for three years. Then I'd sign Baker and cross my fingers. This rotation could compete in the Central if things break well for the Twins and it also gives them hope down the road: Jackson/Marcum/Sanchez Baker Diamond Scrub/Gibson later in the season Other scrub (Hendriks, probably) Sixth man: Deduno, De Vries, etc. Minors: Span for a low minors starter Berrios Wimmers (hope hope) Etc. I like the theory of this, although I think we'd get a 2-3 players for Span. I could also see the Twins moving one of Hicks/Arcia this offseason, too, for more pitching.
  6. Check out the video from the MN ACLU here: He wrote about it here: http://blogs.twincities.com/outofbounds/2012/09/19/out-of-bounds-blog-no-11-stand-up/ And feel free to support Vote No! groups like the ACLU here: http://www.aclu-mn.org/ I'm pretty impressed with Kluwe and Ravens linebacker Ayanbadejo for supporting gay rights. It wasn't that long ago that Reggie White, among others, were pretty hostile towards homosexuals. Esera Tuaolo, a former Viking defensive lineman, was afraid of being outed when he played here.
  7. Nice article. When it's all said and done, I'm going to be very glad Mauer was a Twin his (hopefully) entire career. I'll be very happy when he goes in the HOF and fondly remember his MVP season, his tag on Gardner (and hopefully his world series game winning hit).
  8. Yeah, I've always liked Casilla and after 2010, I really thought he'd play well at TF but it hasn't happened. He'll be non-tendered.
  9. I think Nick's right - we just need to improve the rotation. Here's an interesting stat that probably says nothing. The Twins position players as a team are 3rd in the AL in bWAR, behind the Yanks and Angels and 4th in fWAR behind those two and the Rangers. Ryan did a good job improving the lineup and MI defense from where it was in 2011. I don't know how he'll improve the rotation. Frankly, I think we have a 6-7 guys who could all be #5 starters, none should be good for 20+ starts. (I still think Hendriks can turn into a good starter but it'll probably take him a few seasons to get there). I don't know how he gets a solid rotation. On the other hand, he only has to go from unbelievably bad to slightly below average for the Twins to be competitive.
  10. Yeah, Romney's had a pretty bad couple weeks. Today's leak - that he doesn't think he can fix the middle east situation - will continue to burn him. That 47% comment was really bad, though. There isn't a lot of good ways to get through that esp when, at best, his numbers weren't quite accurate and, at worst, were cooked. But it looks like he's going to double down on it again. I'm starting to think that Santorum could have been a more competitive candidate.
  11. I don't see it anywhere but Sickels has this up at minor league ball: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/9/14/3333616/minor-league-prospect-note-chris-herrmann-c-minnesota-twins
  12. Part of my problem with how we run the minor leagues. We NEVER have a young player that succeeds in the majors .....EVER. Justin was 26, Hunter 26, Span 25, etc. Players are not given the propere instuction to be up at a young age & MN is NOT goin to give them that time during the majors. How many teams go with young players, but not MN. We love the 25yr old Pedro Florimon/Brian Dozier, 31yr old Matt Carson type of rookies cause they DONT push their younger guys (who KNOW they have no shot of reaching the majors till 24/25) Yep. Repeat seasons at Beloit and New Britain are the big killers besides being slow as hell to promote to Beloit in the first place. Arcia's trajectory is great, though. Benson and Parmelee were ok, Hicks is good, and Revere's was a forced move (and a mistake in 2011, certainly). Again, as I have said a bunch of times, there was a study of minor league PAs and IPs and through 2010 the Twins were the slowest promoters in baseball for position players and top 3-4 in slowness for pitchers. This has changed somewhat thanks to Revere and even Parmelee, but it remains true that something is just off. Getting legitimate prospects up at 25 or higher for the first time is a WASTE of time, namely the 23-25 years. The recent statistic for slowness may be indisputable, but the reason is disputable. Are they poor at developing prospects or are they poor at picking prospect?. The latter would account for the slow development times. True talent will rise, see Arcia as the best recent example. You cite Revere and Pamalee's rise. Mauer rose quickly as have others. Talent will rise through the Twin's system, they just have to do a better job of picking it. The last draft had plenty of players shuffled up a level. There's a third reason for the slowness thing - I think the report was by hardball times - the Twins don't give up on prospects and don't spend on free agents. So a guy like Tommy Watkins will end up getting a cup of coffee at 27 instead of the Twins signing a free agent to replace Koskie. The Twins also didn't give up on high draft picks like Span and Plouffe long after their fan base did.
  13. 303-235 for Obama. Romney gets NC, FL. http://www.270towin.com/ is the fun website for those who didn't already know.
  14. Again, that's not quite true either. Liriano dominated at 22, Mauer was handed the starting gig at 21 and, outside of the injury, was good. Garza was up at 22 for good. Santana was a 2.5 WAR relief pitcher at 23. Many of our players were called up young (22-23) but didn't start clicking until 23-25 but that doesn't seem that unusual to me. Most teams have that. Just a quick look at the White Sox top 9 and you see that most of their principal guys didn't break out until 25 or so. AJ (24), Konerko (23), Beckham (still waiting), Ramirez (25), Youk (27), Viciedo (still waiting), De Aza (28), Rios (25), Dunn (21). Compared to the the Twins - Mauer (22), Morneau (25), Casilla (still waiting), Dozier (still waiting), Plouffe (26), Willingham (27), Span (24), Revere (24), Doumit (24).
  15. Currently, Jeter. Ever, man that's harder. Probably Jeter, too. Maybe Molitor or Boggs?
  16. I think a lot of us are forgetting how long it takes a draft class to make it's mark. We're complaining about recent drafts but the 06 draft, for instance, is just starting to show up in the majors. It took Morneau (99) until 2005 to break out. Hunter (93) had his first good ML year in 01. Span (02) had a solid rookie year in 08. Cuddyer (97) wasn't an everyday player until 04. Plouffe (04) looked like a bust until this year.
  17. Great thread. I remember a few years ago during the Twinkie Town community ranking progress, I kept pushing for Liam Hendriks to get ranked and he didn't make the top 50 (on the other hand, I was a huge Durbin guy once, too). That was fun. I wish I knew more about "lesser" prospects but I do think Michael is pretty under ranked by a lot of Twins fans. Walker was a nice pick in the third round. It'll be interesting to see how these guys develop.
  18. I'm pretty sure most teams do not "fairly regularly" debut players within two years. And, as I mentioned in a different thread on nearly this topic, Mauer had fewer MiLB at bats than Trout when he was promoted.
  19. In today's ask BA, Buxton was put in the top 10 minor league prospects by Jim Callis. Caveat was that he couldn't consider players that were called up to the majors, like Profar. "There aren't 10 guys who feel like they should be overall Top 10 prospects in the minors right now. Nevertheless, I compiled the list below: 1. Dylan Bundy, rhp, Orioles If I ran the Orioles, he'd be up for the pennant drive. 2. Wil Myers, of, Royals Kansas City continues to find hitters, search for pitchers. 3. Oscar Taveras, of, Cardinals The favorite for 2013 Minor League Player of the Year. 4. Trevor Bauer, rhp, Diamondbacks I stubbornly cling to the notion he's the best college pitcher from the 2011 draft. 5. Gerrit Cole, rhp, Pirates Showed better control than his former UCLA teammate Bauer in his pro debut. 6. Francisco Lindor, ss, Indians A definite shortstop with more offensive upside than expected. 7. Jose Fernandez, rhp, Marlins Wouldn't last close to 14 picks again if the 2011 draft was held again today. 8. Zack Wheeler, rhp, Mets Started to take off last year when the Giants let him use his high school delivery. 9. Byron Buxton, of, Twins The top prospect in the 2012 draft has lofty ceiling, needs time to develop. 10. Travis d'Arnaud, c, Blue Jays Edges Mike Zunino (Mariners) for title of best catching prospect in the minors."
  20. Lots of things wrong with the premise of this post - the idea that one player represents the system is a bit of a reach. Eaton, I would think, fell in part because he's short but he showed that he was the better player and could stay healthy. I'm also not sure if Roberts was blocked by better OFers. Twins have had some guys go fast through the minors - Hendriks, for example, missed all of his age 19 season and maybe had pitched 250 minor league innings under his belt before he was called up.
  21. Willingham in the majors and (realistically) Hicks/Arcia in the minors. (Don't see Sano being put on the market but I could see one of those two being moved).
  22. Because these threads are always fun. Bradley Ankrom at baseballprospectus was asked "Rate the top Twins prospects in order - Sano, Buxton, Hicks, Arcia, Rosario? Bradley Ankrom: I like that order for the most part. I'd flip Arcia and Hicks -- Sano, Buxton, Arcia, Hicks... with Max Kepler close behind. God, I love Max Kepler." Really nice to see Kepler getting some prospect love. Last week, the fangraphs guy put Kepler ahead of Bubba Starling.
  23. Yeah, that was a nice little read and a reminder that we need better pitchers, not necessarily strike out guys.
  24. I'm just posting this b/c Buxton was compared favorably to Starling by several BA writers. Most preferred Buxton by a slim margin. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bubba-starlings-lengthy-swing/
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