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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Here's Orioles top 20 prospects http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/11/27/3698600/baltimore-orioles-top-20-prospects-for-2013 Span, who was our best trade chip, got us a B+ prospect in Meyer. So there is no way we could get a guy like Gausman or Bundy or Machedo. There are untouchable. And after that, they don't have much. Morneau might get us a back end type starter. Not a lot to be excited about. Morneau's value will be much higher at the trade deadline, provided he stays healthy. If the Twins are 15 games back at the break but Morneau is putting up a solid/healthy season, he'd probably be the premier big bat on the market. Trade him then.
  2. gunnarthor
    I think Jeremy is spot on. Twins don't have that much AA/AAA ready depth, which is usually what teams go after. A bad team isn't going to waste a lottery ticket on a guy like Slama and a good team that might be able to use him won't have a need for him.
  3. gunnarthor
    I'd be ok with giving up someone like Harrison for him but not much more than that. And that assumes the FO likes Gordon.
  4. gunnarthor
    Well, yeah. But it's a really low bar.
  5. gunnarthor
    I'd still like to hear how BJ Upton is a better player then Denard Span, especially moving forward. Not a better value, not a better person, a better player.. Span had a higher WAR last year than Upton. Span had the higher wOBA last year. One could quite rationally look at downward trend lines in Upton's defensive value over the last few years to suggest the 1000 or so games are starting to add up on his body. But that's never been the point. There are arguments either way. But your treatment of Brock and Puck was purposefully dense, to be kind.
  6. gunnarthor
    Well, I think this thread helped us learn a lot about certain posters, if nothing else. I am stunned that someone on the internet failed to apologize for his comments and, in spite of evidence to the contrary, dug in and purposefully ignored/misunderstood other posters to do so. Absolutely stunned.
  7. gunnarthor
    You seem to keep moving your endpoints to suit you. You wanted to use 5 years for defensive stats b/c one year has a sample size issue but most stat guys say use three years for defensive stats. When 1 or 3 years are used, Span is the better defensive player and it isn't particularly close. So you pick 5 which coincides with Upton's best years and Span's worst and also the years defensive stats at the Dome were sorta fuzzy. And that way you get to ignore the downward trend Upton has shown in the defensive stats. For offense, you won't use 5 years b/c they include Span's best years, so we'll chop it to three, which include Span's injury affected years. But if we use one year or a 5 year time period, we see the offensive differences are basically nil. And all this was after you used hyperbole to support your nonsense claim that according to all stats, Upton was signficantly better defensively. You wonder why people are having trouble with your posts?
  8. gunnarthor
    The fact is Upton has outperformed him significantly over the last 3 years. Poll 30 GMs in the league and ask them who a btter player is and you will get 30 Upton answers. If Span was considered the better player you would have seen a lot more rumors in regards to the trade and a lot larger names being thrown around. Jesus Christ, Dave. I said that if you factor in injuries, the pendulum swings heavily into Upton's favor. Or did you also miss the sentence that read " It's hard to separate the player from the injuries in this case." We were talking hypotheticals, not actual reality. In reality, Span's injury history is a massive drag on his value. *headdesk* He was healthy in 2010 yet posted an OPS about a 100 points less, you write it off as pretty miserable overall, yet still say that taking injuries out of it you'd prefer Span. I was showing you that even when healthy Upton is outperforming him. For their careers, Upton has a 105 OPS+, Span a 104. Over the last 5 years, both have a 104. In the same time, Span has a 105 wRC+ to Upton's 106. They are different type of players but about equal in offensive rate stats. (Durability is a different issue).
  9. gunnarthor
    Maybe, maybe not. But that's getting away from the first point when you said Upton rates as above average in every single defensive statistic out there. That is clearly not the case. His UZR has fallen considerably over the last five years. Over the last 3 years, it has been pretty bland. Additionally, bWAR's defensive metric has never liked Upton, making him negative for his career. You might be right. He might still be an above average defender at the age of 28. But others might well suggest that, after nearly 1000 games, many on artificial turf, Upton is starting to show decline in his defensive game. Or defensive stats may be seriously skewered. Look at Carl Crawford. From a great defender to a negative one in one season - that was clearly marred by injury and moving to different positions as well as playing at Fenway where the Monster affects defensive stats (Hardball times had an article pointing to two parks that affected defensive adjustments, Fenway's Monster and the Dome's baggy, so I suppose Span's stats over that five year period could also all be in question).
  10. gunnarthor
    Dude, Upton is a significantly better player then Span, just take a look at the upside and his last 3 years of offensive production vs Span. Also, not sure where you are getting this Upton is below average defensively thing. Upton actually rates as above average according to ever defensive metric out there. Also, Upton doesn't have the injury concerns Span has and has shown significant power spikes as he has started to get close to his peak ages. Is Span a better bargain at his deal? Yeah, and I would take Span at his contract over Upton. But to say straight up (money not an issue) that you would take Span over Upton is disingenuous, or else you don't follow baseball much. Both brWAR and fangraphs UZR have Upton listed as a negative defender now. Last year, both rWAR and fWAR would have Span as the slightly better player (although that comes with all the WAR is really not that accurate admonitions). I'd prefer Upton for his durability but it's close.
  11. gunnarthor
    Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
  12. gunnarthor
    Willingham doesn't count?
  13. gunnarthor
    I liked the trade even if it doesn't help next years team (unless Meyer explodes in AA ball but even then it would be unlikely). I'm also pretty sure the Twins aren't done so it's a bit early to say that Ryan isn't doing anything about 2013. It is possible that we have a repeat of last years team but I'll give Ryan time to fix the rotation.
  14. gunnarthor
    Klaw has taken issue with the framing angle in his chats, too. While Molina helps with framing, it's not 50 runs, in his opinion. Framing is nice but it's early and we don't know how accurate it is or how long it'll stick around. (Anyone remember DIPS for pitchers? Santana overrated and Bonderman better arguments were common). As with defensive stats, it's hard to measure and it's hard to value. With both variables in doubt, it would be silly to put too much emphasis on this.
  15. gunnarthor
    Still don't understand the Revere hate around here. He made the majors at 22, two + years before Span. Last year, fWAR gave Span a .5 advantage, which is basically nothing, even though Revere was compared with RFers and Span with CFers. Everyone seems to think that Revere is a finished project for some reason. Cripes, he'll be 25 next year and starting to enter his prime years. He'll get better.
  16. gunnarthor
    I don't think the team will be significantly worse. Much of Span's value came from defense and Revere will surpass that. Offensively, it allows us to potentially put a power bat in RF (Parmelee will get first shot but Plouffe and/or Hicks/Arcia will probably get looks there too).
  17. gunnarthor
    I was thinking about next year's #4 pick, too. There are 3 legit pitchers so one could easily slide to us. A future rotation of Gibson, Meyer and (say) Appel anchoring the front could be really exciting.
  18. gunnarthor
    Nice write up. I remember when he was drafted, he slipped a little bit b/c he was a Boras client. I think his upside was as good as possible for Span. NIce get, now we just hope he develops into an all star.
  19. gunnarthor
    I had to read that twice, because I wasn't sure if you were referring to Gonzalez or Millone as the MLB ready #2 (You're referring to Gonzalez, right?) edit: because, at the time, they were both MLB ready no. 2's, even if BA didn't include Millone in their rankings. Gonzalez had a great year. Bill James thinks he will regress back into that no. 2. So, Peacock, Cole, Norris - they were all just gravy for the A's, along with the 3 extra years of team control on their new no. 2 starter. edit 2: again i don't have an angle. I'm not trying to grill JR or anything, I just can't get over how some of these deals come to pass and others don't. Milone isn't a #2, he's more like Slowey or Blackburn type. Was never a big time prospect. Benefits greatly from pitching in Oakland (has horrible h/r splits). Cole and Peacock were the better prospects although Peacock struggled a ton this year and some prospect guys (KLaw) thought he was a bullpen arm. Meyer has a better ceiling than both of them.
  20. gunnarthor
    I think we have four guys - Sano, Buxton, Hicks and Arcia - who will all certainly be top 100 prospects in baseball america's next listing. Gibson, Rosario and Meyer have a chance. Our top ten then is Sano Buxton Hicks Arcia Meyer Rosario Gibson Berrios Kepler Harrison? That's pretty nice depth.
  21. gunnarthor
    One other thing to keep in mind was that, after coming back from injury, Span had a .300 OBP to end the year. It was a small sample size but maybe the Twins were concerned with his injuries and just decided to move before rumors started going out.
  22. gunnarthor
    I like Meyer as the centerpiece although I wish we could have gotten one more player back. I don't think it'll hurt the club that much going from a Willingham/Span/Revere outfield to a Willingham/Revere/Parmelee outfield. We lose some OBP but, hopefully, Parmelee or Plouffe (or Hicks/Arcia) can develop some pop.
  23. gunnarthor
    I wonder if Revere might be a better fit for the Nats. He's got better range than Span and with Harper and an aging Werth, that's worth something. He's cheaper than Span and his speed game might play even better in the NL. They probably wouldn't have to give up as much for Revere as well.
  24. gunnarthor
    He's pretty bad defensively at third. I wonder if they think he might end up in RF or give 2B another shot.
  25. gunnarthor
    I understand why we'd bring him back but I'd just as soon move on.
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